False alarm? – Once only.

The next time you see an on-line post from me with the above heading, it will be because I have learned and become thoroughly convinced that a genuine tsunami alert is URGENT for Canterbury and Wellington to hear. Why must I write this? Let me explain.

Three careers have been permanently capped by the Christchurch, 22 February 2011, magnitude 6.3 earthquake: Prime Minister John Key’s, Mayor Bob Parker’s, and Dr Mark Quigley‘s. For as at today’s date around two hundred people have died, ON THEIR WATCH. Land resources and people’s welfare were neither respected nor understood, safely, on their watch. This overt lack of governing and academic competence can never be forgiven – by survivors or the world. After the magnitude 7.1 quake of 4 September 2010, this group gave false confidence that the danger had passed, that the central city business restoration took top priority, with tragic results. Shattering.

Hazard risk safety in Canterbury can only be restored along with the democratically elected regional governance. The insult to people and planet done by Parker and Key, through their illegitimate coup – for irrigation, gravel extraction, central planning and industrial and commercial interests etc, of April 2010 – is being repaid FROM ON HIGH. Balance must now be restored: bring ECan out of exile.

To help fill the intelligence gap, the empirical deficit giving regard to Canterbury coastal well-being, please add this – adapted from yesterday’s facebook entry for rik.tindall:

Scientific knowledge of the Chatham Rise is quite limited and actually poor. e.g. “It stretches for some 1000 kilometres from near the South Island in the west, to the Chatham Islands in the east” – ref Wikipedia/ Chatham_Rise – WRONG! – For Christchurch, the Chatham Rise now presents a very clear and present DANGER!

My September 4th event thesis was confirmed on 22 Feb. That is, the Greendale Fault has shown that, not so deep below us, the ancient Chatham Rise geological feature – the ossified and brittle original subduction zone front – actually continues west and abuts the Southern Alps, where it acts as a giant inertia brake effective upon the Alpine Fault, stalling greater disaster…

Greendale Fault – 33km – magnitude 7.1 quake (x 10 =)
Alpine Fault – 330km – magnitude 8.1 quake (x 2 =)
Chatham Rise fault – 660km – magnitude 8.2 quake [1]

These are rough calculations based on expert information in articles published recently in The Press newspaper. The earthquake magnitude forecasts are conservative, as the actual fault lengths are: Alpine Fault – “650km” while Chatham Rise faults – “are numerous ..some up to 700 km long”. If we add a conceptual 300 kilometres of actual length to the western Chatham Rise as I advise – spanning Banks Peninsula and west through Greendale to the Southern Alps – we reach a length of almost 1300 kilometres; and probably, therefore, towards a mid-to-high magnitude 8 local quake risk. For comparison, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was from a magnitude 9.0 quake surface rupture of 1300 km length. [2]

The Greendale Fault “reflected” shock force back off the Alps, we were told by geologists after 4Sep, but wrongly that “reflection” also came off Banks Peninsula, it seems. Instead, 22 February’s 6.3 quake confirmed what I had been postulating: that the Greendale Fault energy release was actually pounding its way through the westward, thick-end of Banks Peninsula, so to pass east beneath Lyttelton area and out to sea (and has also been fracturing under Christchurch city – SW to NE – exit Waimairi Beach). Silo-like, geologists prefer to treat faults and aftershocks discretely – each with their own ‘standard pattern of decline’ towards restabilisation (for political reasons?) In this case, however, a fraction more dot-joining would undoubtedly have saved lives in Christchurch during 22 February’s shock – where devastating energy very predictably spilled east..

The ‘small picture’ of proving separate faults eastward of Greendale’s – rather than one contiguous fault – is far less significant than that of the imminent transfer of fault energy, along the system onto the Chatham Rise faults.

For a clear example of the strange errors made by geologists here, see Port Hills half a metre taller after Christchurch earthquake where “Satellite analysis by GNS Science shows the top of the roughly east-west buried fault responsible for the February 22 magnitude-6.3 quake lies between one kilometre and 2km below the southern edge of the Avon-Heathcote Estuary. Land on either side of the fault has slipped horizontally as well as vertically, causing the Port Hills to rise by about 40 centimetres and land just south of the Avon-Heathcote Estuary to shift to the west by a few tens of centimetres. Land immediately north of the estuary, on the other side of the fault, has also moved tens of centimetres, but to the east. GNS natural hazards manager Kelvin Berryman said the estuary and land just west of it had sunk by about 10cm.. ‘It’s not a big fault. It hasn’t had a lot of movement on it in the past. The quake occurred at the periphery of the September 4 aftershock cloud. The stress front has arrived there and found a piece of the crust that was primed and ready to go.’ There was no indication how long it was since the Port Hills fault last moved, Berryman said. ‘It has not been determined before now in any geological maps or geophysics work. ‘It could have moved before, but it might be the first time it ruptured in the last 100 million years'” from The Press of 2 March 2011.

– As “the Port Hills” were part of an active island volcano system just 20 million years ago, going extinct with the plate collision that formed the West Coast and Southern Alps just 5-6 million years ago, then Berryman’s claim of no Lyttelton fault movement in five times that length of time can be neither correct nor relevant – in the larger scale of landscape dynamics. Ref Pushing New Zealand’s Boundaries NZ land formation simulation by GNS. Given the lack of surface rupture expression, would a more useful assumption to present not be: ‘like Greendale, there has been no sign of movement on the Lyttelton fault for at least ten thousand years’?

Incontrovertible supporting evidence for my ‘eastward rift’ thesis, the west-east “straw that broke the camel’s back” was precisely this shock sequence:
1) 22-Feb 01:07am Magnitude 2.3
Near 82 Knights Rd, Rolleston 7675, New Zealand
The distance from the Square in Christchurch is 21.2 km
2) 22-Feb 09:16am Magnitude 3.1
Near 747-823 Cashmere Rd, Kennedys Bush 8025, New Zealand
The distance from the Square in Christchurch is 7.6 km
3) 22-Feb 12:51pm Magnitude 6.3
Near Tunnel Rd, Lyttelton 8082, New Zealand
“The distance from the Square in Christchurch is 9.7 km Mercalli VIII – Little damage in specially built structures. Considerable damage to ordinary buildings, severe damage to poorly built structures. Some walls collapse.” quake.crowe.co.nz

And there has been much further seaside quake confirmation today:

01-Mar 09:10am Magnitude 4.3, Energy 37 tons, Depth 2.00 km, Near 500 Camp Bay Rd, Port Levy, distance from the Square in Christchurch is 19.3 km; Southshore; Sumner; 01-Mar 10:42pm Magnitude 4.6, Energy 110 tons, Depth 5.00 km, Near 1951 Summit Rd, Governors Bay, distance from the Square in Christchurch is 9.3 km; etc:
Port Hills rift
Chatham Rise profile
The Greendale Fault line (in red) points east, to the subterranean Port Hills rift events continued of 1 Mar 2011, and a surface view over Chatham Rise. Graphics: quake.crowe.co.nz

Having spent two and half years working with the Canterbury risk managers in the implementation of their natural hazard emergency plan, I can tell you with complete authenticity that the tsunami risk from the Chatham Rise HAS NOT BEEN FACTORED IN YET, but is now rising.

Why does this matter? If you think that East Christchurch is a neglected mess now, compare it to Aceh, Indonesia on Boxing Day 2004 to get a clearer picture.* The Christchurch City Council had tsunami warning systems budgeted in for the eastern suburbs, but when will these now be delivered? – With sufficient urgency?

I was a Canterbury Regional Councillor, working hard with the New Brighton, Southshore, Redcliffs and Sumner communities in particular on emergency preparedness plans. I was in New Brighton on the morning of 27 Feb 2010 when the last Pacific tsunami warning sounded, and was able to open a temporary forward evacuation base – in the Brighton Mall shop where Stronger Christchurch in now situated – where I witnessed the local pre-evacuation alert state practically.

CONCLUSION: If Cantabrians want to feel safe from ground-force risk again soon, then you need to demand the IMMEDIATE REINSTATEMENT OF THE ELECTED ENVIRONMENT CANTERBURY COUNCIL to continue preparedness work on the crucial subject outlined here today.

DEMOCRACY – the decisive authority of the people – is a real and vital natural force. Governments abuse it AT GREAT PERIL!

[1] Calculation proof:
Greendale Fault – 33km – magnitude 7.1 quake (/ 10 =)
hypothetical fault – 3.3km – magnitude 6.1 quake (x 3 =)
Lyttelton Fault – ‘9.9km’ – magnitude 6.3 quake (recorded as 8km long, 8km deep)

[2] “The 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake came just three days after a magnitude 8.1 earthquake in an uninhabited region west of New Zealand’s sub-Antarctic Auckland Islands, and north of Australia’s Macquarie Island. This is unusual, since earthquakes of magnitude 8 or more occur only about once per year on average. Some seismologists have speculated about a connection between these two earthquakes, saying that the former one might have been a catalyst to the Indian Ocean earthquake, as the two earthquakes happened on opposite sides of the Indo-Australian Plate. However, the U.S. Geological Survey sees no evidence of a causal relationship in this incident. Coincidentally, the earthquake struck almost exactly one year (to the hour) after a 6.6 magnitude earthquake killed an estimated 30,000 people in the city of Bam in Iran on December 26, 2003.”
Wikipedia/ 2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake_and_tsunami

The top global source on current Pacific tsunami threats is the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center of the US NOAA.gov in Hawaii. See some 22Feb11 quake info from NZ’s Crown Research Institute (CRI) Geological and Nuclear Sciences (GNS) and on youtube.

Wellington

Since beginning study of the September 4th Canterbury / Christchurch earthquake (and discount of a reactivation of local volcanics) I have been explaining the event in terms – and with warning – of more imminent Wellington groundshake disaster. This incident progression south to north can easily be read from the 2009-2011 NZ quake history and the tectonic plate dynamic animations made available by GNS Science, whom seem loathe to interpret in ways that could instill fear and preparedness. But consensus and the evidence are still building..

Surprise Quake prophecy will come true … eventually where “a kaumatua’s Waitangi Day prophecy of doom and destruction for Wellington should be taken with a pinch of salt – though a massive earthquake in the capital is inevitable, experts say. Anglican minister Gray Theodore, who was born Te Kerei Tiatua, stunned the 1000-strong crowd gathered at the Treaty grounds when he revealed his vision at yesterday’s dawn ceremony. ‘A terrible earthquake is going to hit Wellington. I have seen body bags in the streets of Wellington. I have seen houses on the hills of Wellington – seen them disappear. I have seen the roof of the Beehive lying in the debris of the streets of Wellington.’ God had shown him the harbour waters receding, then rushing back in a tsunami that would affect an area from the South Island to as far north as Whanganui. He did not know what year the catastrophe would strike – but it would be in the month of June..” 6 Feb 2011, then:

Reference # 3472164, Tue Mar 1 2011 10:07 pm NZDT, Magnitude 4.5, Depth 40 km, Details 20 km north-west of Wellington;
Reference # 3473252, Fri Mar 4 2011 2:19 am NZDT, Magnitude 4.7, Depth 30 km, Details 10 km north-east of Upper Hutt;
Reference # 3473493, Fri, Mar 4 2011 12:55 pm NZDT, Magnitude 3.7, Depth: 30 km, Details: 10 km north of Upper Hutt;
Reference # 3474189, Sun, Mar 6 2011 0:41 am NZDT, Magnitude: 3.0, Depth: 40 km, Details: 20 km north-west of Wellington;
Reference # 3476805, Fri, Mar 11 2011 9:57 am NZDT, Magnitude: 3.2, Depth: 40 km, Details: 30 km east of Wellington;
Reference # 3477261, Sat, Mar 12 2011 8:03 am NZDT, Magnitude: 2.6, Depth: 5 km, Details: Within 5 km of Otaki; source Geonet.

New Zealand recent quakes 040311 ex geonet.org.nz

New Zealand recent quakes 040311 ex geonet.org.nz

More isolationist ‘calming’ propaganda from corporate state scientists abounds in No big Wellington quake coming – seismologist: “‘All we can do is basically look through the past historical and geological record. We know that the faults exist, we know that the earthquakes do happen, and we can figure out on average how often they happen and when the last one was. But that’s about the best we can do.’ A major earthquake was expected once every 700 years, and Wellington was about halfway through that cycle”, NZPA 4Mar11. And Wellington shook more before Christchurch earthquake “there has been a slight increase in magnitude since February 22 – in the week before the range was from 2 to 3.8; since the Christchurch quake, the range has been from 2.2 to 4.7.. These quakes were normal and would not trigger a massive event” stuff.co.nz 5Mar11. D’oh! – That means these quakes are less numerous, but twenty to ninety times stronger than before! …

GNS Science recent quakes pic 07Mar11

GNS Science recent quakes pic 07Mar11

Then Earthquakes shake South Island “A 4.1 magnitude earthquake shook the upper South Island and lower North Island on Sunday night, the GeoNet website reports. The quake struck at 11.02pm 10 kilometres southeast of Blenheim, at a depth of 12km. Earlier, a 4.9 magnitude earthquake brought down rocks on to State Highway One near Kaikoura, police said. The earthquake struck at 4.43pm, 20km east of Kaikoura at a depth of 12km. The earthquake was widely felt on the east coast of the South Island, GeoNet said. The rockfall was 17km north of Kaikoura, near Half Moon Bay, a police spokeswoman said. Further south, five aftershocks of magnitude 3 and stronger shook Christchurch and surrounding regions on Sunday. There have been frequent aftershocks since February 22’s deadly 6.3 quake that devastated parts of Christchurch” stuff.co.nz 6Mar11. Then: Reference #3477862, Sun Mar 13 2011 2:15 pm NZDT, Magnitude: 3.5, Depth: 15 km, Details: 10 km south-east of Seddon; etc. source Geonet.

Geonet recent quakes 11Mar2011

Geonet recent quakes 11Mar2011

Continuation of southern subduction zone quakes – a magnitude 4.5 here – implicate the whole of NZ isles in major violent ground motion ahead.

… Watch this space

“You have been warned.”

Interesting: John Campbell’s 28Feb11 TV3 interview attack upon, then apology to, meteorological and earth event forecaster Ken Ring.

Honshu Japan 8.9 offshore quake http://www.weather.gov/ptwc/index.php?region=1

Ok, sadly the big tsunami predicted is here.. Not local to Chch, but likely effects.. Honshu Japan offshore 8.9 quake, March 11, 2011 http://www.weather.gov/ptwc/index.php?region=1


http://www.weather.gov/ptwc/index.php?region=1
Grief strikes, with the deadly Honshu 11 March tsunami :-/ N.B. this magnitude 8.9 earthquake came from just “a 400km-long fault” – BBC. Yet, “given the size of the earthquake, the fault is likely to have ruptured for about 500km” – also BBC?

14 March: Sendai earthquake data upgrade to magnitude 9.0, over a “300km” or 500km-long main fault? (reports vary).. Ref Wikipedia /2011_Sendai_earthquake

N.B. Facebook pre-discusson of the magnitude 9.0, see 26Feb11 Ruaumoko in better light..

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