My blog-post quake-prediction yesterday was cautious to avoid #scaremonger tag and unwanted effects, made under a different subject line but accurate nonetheless – local and Kermadec earthquake resonance indeed did occur within hours, so WARNING timing was correct in Earthquakes hate big dairy farms.

But on Twitter there are “fools” out to sink proven and useful public service – one a preening John Key MBA acolyte, and the other a religious neurotic, it appears. So in answering lame critics, I now extend my earthquake prediction service by documenting its several recent successes, and the technique, with this post (future editing).

NOTE: Geologists say “we can’t predict earthquakes”, when what they really mean is “we won’t predict earthquakes” – for professional reasons. And I respect that: no-one can give guarantees of events mostly beyond human control; geologists are in a professional bind of extreme caution for what they say, when they will always be held ultimately accountable for what we do and do not know about seismic events and disasters. I am not presuming to replace or to criticise the academic experts – merely to supplement their onerous work.

Where I come from is living through this deep-winter earthquake hell, alongside all Christchurch residents. I know the fright and the fear of the sudden big building shakes, just like you. I know the dreadful surge of adrenalin that cannot easily be stemmed, just like you. So I have put months into crash-study of what is known about geological movement below, for my own reassurance, to mitigate those individual negative effects.

But having learned how to read the scary ground movements going on all around us, to some extent and to become less shocked by them, it then becomes my duty to share what insight I have with my community fellows – for your nervous well-being too.

The criticism attracted for doing this research work adds to the shock, however, which deters me from commenting on imminent quakes unless I am really sure – as I was yesterday (and as earlier in June with statements here and on Facebook).

The 10.34pm magnitude 5.4 last night proved my instincts correct, however, yet again. I will tend to keep quiet about all of this variable seismic situation now, until I simply must speak out – for your WARNING and nerve-preservation too. It helps to know what to expect, if we can. And to keep quiet whenever we really do not know. ~ Kia ora.

The Greendale Fault stress-front seemed to revive yesterday, around Prebbleton and Halswell. Compare this screenshot (with that taken yesterday for Earthquakes hate big dairy farms page):

Prebbleton magnitude 5.4 quake week - Crowe.co.nz 220611

Prebbleton magnitude 5.4 quake week - Crowe.co.nz 220611

– Port Hills next again soon? (Shocks travel in a trending-eastward flow.)

Christchurch-Kermadec link, pic #1, 210611: 75 minutes after the Christchurch magnitude 5.4, a Kermadec 4.9 sends ripples all the way back. Source: Geonet.org.nz

GNS NZ seismographs 210611

GNS NZ seismographs 210611

Christchurch magnitude 4.1 aftershock 3.28am NZST - GIM 210611 UTC

Christchurch magnitude 4.1 aftershock 3.28am NZST - GIM 210611 UTC


Christchurch-Kermadec link, pic #2 and #3, second quake timings close coincidence. Source: globalincidentmap.com.
Kermadecs magnitude 4.7 aftershock 3.30am NZST - GIM 210611 UTC

Kermadecs magnitude 4.7 aftershock 3.30am NZST - GIM 210611 UTC

The Kermadecs 11.47pm 4.9, after zone activation 7.5 hours earlier – by Santa Cruz Islands 6.1 delayed basement shaking?:

Raoul Island magnitude 4.9 (in red) - GNS 210611

Raoul Island, Kermadecs magnitude 4.9 (in red) - GNS 210611

Kermadecs magnitude 4.9 quake amongst South Pacific quake group - USGS 210611

Kermadecs magnitude 4.9 quake amongst South Pacific quake group - USGS 210611


Santa Cruz Islands 6.1 - USGS 210611

Santa Cruz Islands 6.1 - USGS 210611


Santa Cruz Islands magnitude 6.1 - GIM 210611

Santa Cruz Islands magnitude 6.1 - GIM 210611

Ref. #ChristChurch

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