South-West Tonga magnitude 5.7 - Geonet 260611

South-West Tonga magnitude 5.7 - Geonet 260611


Graphic source / watching GeoNet 26Jun11 10am.

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) ref. Magnitude 5.7 – SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS – 2011 June 25 21:16:57 UTC

Mariana Trench 5.1 yesterday, after Alaska 7.2 Friday. Hawaii and California active.

This is the second, stronger ripple across or to NZ in result of late, the first being from a Magnitude 5.0 – KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION early Saturday morning.

Watch for any local ground effects on geonet.org.nz/canterbury-quakes/drums

Canterbury seismometer Drums - Geonet 260611a 10am

Canterbury seismometer Drums - Geonet 260611a 10am

Kermadec/Tonga magnitude 5.7 - USGS 260611

Kermadec/Tonga magnitude 5.7 - USGS 260611


USGS graphic. Note, at over 500km deep, this quake (in blue) was around the same distance away from Fiji and Tonga, a third of the distance to Auckland. – Whew! ~ deep tectonic action. NZ Raoul Island pictured here next to main hazard, Kermadec Trench (red line). Raoul Island GeoNet graphic with 5.7 record below.
Raoul Island drum, Tonga Ridge mag' 5.7 - GNS Science 260611

Raoul Island drum, Tonga Ridge mag' 5.7 - GNS Science 260611

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26/6/11 – 8.30pm and 11 hours later,.. I’m betting on a 5+ #Chch quake within 24 hours. [This didn’t quite happen – yet (a 4.4 did) – so record left intact for development of methodological integrity. 30/6/11]

Enough of the kind of signs I watch for are now in place to say this; e.g.

1. Landfall from the 9.15am 5.7 may just have amplified into this local Northland quake:

Waipu Caves NZ local quake, after Tonga 5.7 trace - GNS 260611

Waipu Caves NZ local quake, after Tonga 5.7 trace - GNS 260611

2. Enough of the seismometers in the Canterbury region have again started to ‘drag’ – recording long, grumbling seismic movement instead of the short, sharp energy releases of small quakes:

Canterbury Drums - GNS 260611b

Canterbury Drums - GNS 260611b

3. Canterbury Quake Live charts currently a reduced number of small quakes, also indicating pent-up friction that should soon be released in quantity. Another 5+ like early last weeks’ is becoming overdue. Big shocks are frequently preceded by rapidly ‘rising pairs’ of smaller shocks [*]:

Canterbury Quake Live with aftershock 'rising pairs' - Crowe.co.nz 260611 11pm

Canterbury Quake Live with aftershock 'rising pairs' - Crowe.co.nz 260611 11pm

4. Drift east of Greendale Fault cont’d:

Halswell 3.5 - Crowe 260611

Halswell 3.5 - Crowe 260611

5. Seismic activity many local places, another offshore ‘ghost’ ripple – from the Northern Mariana Islands 9.19pm mag’ 5.5? – here apparently triggering a trio of small NZ quakes directly, after something moving Kahutara / Kaikoura undersea canyon:

shakey isles - GNS drums 260611e

shakey isles - GNS drums 260611e

6. Big regional Ring of Fire quakes steadily migrating south:

Papua magnitude 6.4 - USGS 270611

Papua magnitude 6.4 - USGS 270611

Stop Press: 27Jun11 1.20am result.
A Papua sequence 6.4, 5.4, 5.0 now seems to have kicked us off (trace visible @ 60 mins)
Just so
/ little-bingo 4.4 :

c1.20am ~4.6 mag' #Chch quake - GeoNet NSN drums 270611b

1.20am mag 4.4 #Chch quake - GeoNet NSN drums 270611b

7. Further background to successful earthquake prediction is being written into earthquake 13 June 2011 InfoHelp page. Read that.

“Rising pair” Method just confirmed, but to a lesser magnitude (so far – yet not expected to rise to a fourth or fifth 5+ level today now [this observed to have been a correct forecast, further refining the method – 30/6/2011]):

1.20am mag 4.4 from a 'rising pair' - Crowe.co.nz Quake Live 270611

1.20am mag 4.4 from a 'rising pair' - Crowe.co.nz Quake Live 270611

[*] N.B. Re “Big shocks are frequently preceded by ‘rising pairs’ of smaller shocks”, further analysis provides the following predictive rule, for watching http://quake.crowe.co.nz etc:

“Magnitude 4+ aftershocks will be preceded by either a rising pair or rising triplet of smaller shocks; whereas magnitude 5+ aftershocks will be preceded by a rising pair, of which the second is a magnitude 4+.” The bigger shocks can quite accurately be foreseen this way 🙂 ~ FINDING! Copyright © Canterbury Technology Ltd 30/6/2011

So, to test and confirm this new aftershock pattern theory, what can be forecast today?:


– A strong rising pair has preceded it, therefore there could be a magnitude 4+ aftershock following.

– If there is to be a 5+ aftershock here in Canterbury, it will come from the sudden, ‘unexpected’ (single small prior shock) 4+. – i.e. Not Today (and not wishing to be proven wrong, either 😉

Where will this 4+ shock occur today? – Given this shock progression:
30 Jun 2011 7:23am 3.0 5.0 41.0 km 197 Domain Rd, Oxford 7495, New Zealand
30 Jun 2011 9:39am 3.9 2.0 12.9 km 101 Hamptons Rd, Prebbleton 7676, New Zealand

then the next 3-4 should be on the Port Hills fault, Cashmere / western end, soon (and at Sumner, east-end after that – another / the 4+). Or it could decide to head off under the city and out to sea around Southshore, New Brighton. But there should be a noticeable 4+ somewhere, felt by all.

Let us watch and see.

~ Kia ora

Conclusion 1 July 2011:
Pretty much immediately (2 hours) as I forecast (Port Hills to Sumner aftershocks) though missing the 4+ yet..
We may note with some relief from quake.crowe.co.nz/QuakeEnergy that the rate of daily energy release is declining very quickly now, when compared to after Sept 4 and Feb 22. Yay! 😀

Cass Bay magnitude 2.7 - quake.Crowe.co.nz 300611 3.12pm

Cass Bay magnitude 2.7 - quake.Crowe.co.nz 300611 3.12pm


Sumner magnitude 3.5 - Crowe 010711 7:47am

Sumner magnitude 3.5 - Crowe 010711 7:47am

Oh! Belatedly, just noticed this was the weekend deep trench effect expected –
Magnitude 3.9, Monday, June 27 2011 at 10:00 am (NZST), 30 km east of Castlepoint Hikurangi Trough:

Hikurangi Trough mag' 3.944 - GNS Google Map 270611

Hikurangi Trough mag' 3.944 - GNS Google Map 270611

Repeated: Magnitude 3.9, Sunday, July 3 2011 at 8:02 pm (NZST), 50 km east of Castlepoint ; more east coast trench slippage soon? [Proven correct on 04-050711: Taupo 6.5 quake not good news 4 ChristChurch or NZ]

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