Community-led science #ChristChurch #quake

The commercial-science chickens have come home to roost. Where once there was confidence in “experts”, now there is very grave doubt. Now there is home-grown, amateur earthquake opinion of equal relevance to that produced by a public service long run down to the point of telling error.

Official geological theory of the Christchurch and Kaiapoi earthquakes has often followed the interpretation of aftershock patterns already made by the public, much earlier. Location of a significant fault-line beneath Christchurch city is the main example of this. Online commentary had this line picked, long before the Boxing Day 2010 quake or its locating by the boffins. They possibly delayed releasing findings due to caution.

But with a return to ‘business as usual’ the officials’ obvious priority, the geology experts missed and miscalculated both of the major new shakes since September 4th – expecting only an aftershock decay sequence – with sadly fatal results on 22 February (Rest In Peace, the sacrificial 182). The experts’ advice has subsequently garnered greatly reduced respect: a myopic and statistically-oriented ‘silo-mentality’ has hampered the academic work.

Anyone up in the wee hours of last Sunday, for example, should have felt a small but very expressive ground movement. This was no shake, but a minor adjustment, a momentary slip of the land into a new position. Instinct was to check immediately what would have caused that little ground shift:

Kermadec 5.6 Waimairi 3.4 - GNS drums 100711

Sure enough, it was initiated by another jolt on the Kermadec Trench, a 5.6 that rippled across Aotearoa twenty-two minutes earlier – from Kermadec collision continued – a shaking free of built-up local fault stress:
Magnitude 5.6 – KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND 2011 July 09 13:54:20 UTC initiating
Magnitude 3.4, Sunday, July 10 2011 at 2:16 am (NZST), 10 km north-east of Christchurch.

This is the deep southern base of Kermadec Trench tectonics at work – thirty-six hours later, to drive still further again under Christchurch: Magnitude 4.3, Monday, July 11 2011 at 12:13 pm (NZST), Within 5 km of Christchurch when Magnitude 4.3 knocks power out. So to join these events (purple line added to Crowe.co.nz graphic):

Waimairi 3.4 in 7 days of magnitude 2 up - quake.Crowe.co.nz 120711

Note the concentric volcanic crater faults that the scientists have posited are absorbing and transferring Greendale Fault energy, around Lyttelton Harbour and out to the south-east towards Akaroa crater. This means that the major strike-slip direction might have to resolve itself under Christchurch, north-eastward as indicated, if not directly eastward onto the Chatham Rise. The big picture:

Waimairi magnitude 3.4 quake line - GNS GoogleMap 090711

Greendale-Waimairi-Hikurangi-Kermadec magnitude 3.4 - GNS GoogleMap 090711

~ Kia ora

Update 15 July 2011:

GNS Science tends to agree with the above-deduced fault line;
Graphic source: CERA Media Briefing – Friday 15 July 2011:

GNS Science CERA briefing diagram 150411

as do this week’s continued aftershocks; Graphic source quake.crowe.co.nz/QuakeMap/Search/
(Greendale, Lyttelton and Sumner faults drawn in, west to east, south-east):

7 days of magnitude 2 up - Crowe QuakeMap search 150711

South of Tonga, Kermedec, and Porongahau quakes are building up again, simultaneously this time ..it’s on its way.

7 days magnitude 2 up - Crowe QuakeMap 150711b

On this map line, oldest to newest: north-east 10 Jul 2011 2:16am mag 3.4, 12 Jul 2011 9:43am mag 3.0, 11 Jul 2011 12:13pm mag 4.4, 14 Jul 2011 9:04pm mag 2.7, 15 Jul 2011 4:14pm mag 3.0, 13 Jul 2011 7:29pm mag 3.2, 14 Jul 2011 10:11pm mag 3.4 to south-west.

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