Category: disaster capitalism


Systemic failure in New Zealand emergency response is confirmed by repeat avoidable tragedies in Christchurch, unmitigated disasters under National-led government. Full responsibility lies with them and with everyone who has been selfishly and ignorantly voting support for corrupt sheer incompetence in central and local government: a regional despoliation shared between greedy empire-builders of Beehive and town hall.

With an eye – they happily admitted at the time – only for increased irrigation water for dairy profits from Canterbury, John Key, Gerry Brownlee and Bill English – backed by Christchurch and Canterbury mayors – have completely dropped the ball in every aspect of good governance in the region, since they destroyed its democratically elected council in April 2010.

Since then, because of this, many people have been unnecessarily dying due to the fragmentation of effective civil defence that the central and district governments have collectively caused. That is abysmal and completely unacceptable performance. Heads must roll. Starting today. For public safety.

The lazy, corrupt, ignorant incompetence that characterises New Zealand government has to stop: it is deadly at fault. The same confused fire-cordon-and-response failings that cost lives in the levelled Canterbury Television building on 22-23 February 2011 re-appeared on 14 February 2017 in the Port Hills fires.[1] The failing is in leadership and co-ordination, not that of hands-on responders: a communication and collaboration failure in the back office, from the top down. It is a man-made sabotage of effective regional response that John Key et. al. never imagined was going to be needed or could bite them so very, very hard. Now it very much has. The pattern of functional decay is thoroughly exposed.

News media could stop deflecting attention away from National’s gross mis-leadership and culpable manslaughters in Canterbury. Or remain accessories. Stop promoting self-advancing, opportunist and incompetent mayors.

Ask how the CTV building fire cordon was managed in February 2011. Was it effective in Police hands, as prescribed by an emergency site that had fatality? Or were fire crews excessively stretched without backup, then investigated as blameworthy? Were the fire responders made scapegoats, then and in February 2017?

Ask especially what action council took to check building safety and to cordon off hazards after 4 September 2010. None was apparent as a loud sigh of relief led into an ill-fated Boxing Day Sale, to satisfy city retailers, instead. Criminal negligence and liability rests here and instead we see knighthood reported? Not good enough by far.

Without remedial action at the governance level, New Zealand’s coming grand disaster – the Alpine Fault movement and its follow-ons – will only be all the more lethally tragic. Proposals to centralise emergency response are to save who time instead of getting on an aeroplane? And what happens then when Wellington gets badly hit? No confidence, at all, as it is unearned yet.

Tweet summary: #Canterbury regional bungle #ECan #CDEM
National Party implicated in #CTV + #Sugarloaf avoidable deaths With districts

Action summary: What public safety requires most, without delay, is –
all communities developing skills and means to organise, represent and keep themselves safe,
National out of central government,
Labour out of local government
– monopolies are never, ever healthy or helpful.

Event overview: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Port_Hills_fires

Timeline:

Monday 13 February 2017
c4:30pm Fire broke out in Lansdowne Valley, Selwyn District, spreading rapidly.
c7pm Fire broke out on Marley’s Hill to the north, in the Christchurch City Council area.

Marleys-Lansdowne fires c9pm 130217

Marley’s Hill fire as seen from the south, above the spreading Lansdowne fire, c9pm 13 Feb 2017, in warm west wind

Scrub fire breaks out in Christchurch
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/scrub-fire-breaks-out-in-christchurch.html

Two fires on Christchurch’s Port Hills stretch fire crews, destroys house, force evacuations
“Fire Service spokeswoman Lyn Crosson.. said an area of 400 by 400 square metres was burning at Summit Rd near Marley’s Hill. At 10pm, Crosson said the fire was still burning uncontained and residents on Summit and Worsleys roads were being evacuated. ‘Crews are currently working to prevent it jumping Summit Rd,’ she said. ‘Summit Rd will remain closed for the night.'”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/89372687/large-christchurch-scrub-fire-out-of-control-second-fire-now-burning

Tuesday 14 February 2017
Not enough was done from dawn, by far, while confused officials argued jurisdiction.
Evacuation set #1 of 3 was ignored – emergency not declared, despite it already spanning two populated districts in very dry weather.

Marley's Hill 14 Feb 2017

Marley’s Hill on 14 Feb 2017, view from the north, Lansdowne smoke to the south, warm west wind continues

SDC-1. Tai Tapu/Port Hills fires – update 10.30am “Two fires are continuing to burn this morning in the Tai Tapu/Port Hills area – one in the vicinity of Early Valley Road/Lansdowne, and the other in the Marley Hill area near the Summit Road. The fires cover an area of around 700 hectares. Fire status The Early Valley Road fire started yesterday evening at around 6pm. It has since crossed Summit Road around the Kennedy’s Bush area and at some other points. It is principally being fought by air with support from ground crews. Today crews will focus on protecting structures and controlling the fire, and protecting Kennedy’s Bush. The Marley Hill fire started in a car park around 7pm last night and spread west along the Summit Road area overnight. Protection of structures and the Christchurch Adventure Park and are also a focus for fire fighting. Both fires are now being managed by one Emergency Operations Centre based at Selwyn District Council’s Rolleston Headquarters as well as on site control points… Around 24 properties were evacuated last night with evacuations remaining in place currently. Tai Tapu School was opened last night to receive evacuees but closed last night with all evacuees staying with friends and family except for one family who accommodation was arranged for. No further evacuations are anticipated to be needed currently. One house has been confirmed destroyed by the fire, with a structure destroyed and one other house slightly damaged. All affected structures are in the Lansdowne area” http://www.selwyn.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/216187/Port-Hills-fire-update-10.pdf

Port Hills fires: Photos from inside the cordon – Selwyn Rural Fire response
http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/port-hills-fire-photos-from-inside-the-cordon/

Below Marley Hill, by mid-afternoon 15.02.17, smokes billows phenomenally

Below Marley Hill, by mid-afternoon 15.02.17, smokes billows phenomenally with new flames, wind had just turned dry-easterly

Two fires rage on the Port Hills as one enters the Christchurch Adventure Park “fire retardant had been air-dropped on the top station earlier in the day. Selwyn District Council principal rural fire officer Douglas Marshall said the fire was ‘crawling through the under-matter at the bottom of the trees’ at the top of the park, and that fire crews weren’t too concerned about it causing a problem at this stage. A nearby crew is monitoring the situation. Firefighters earlier said two huge blazes in Christchurch’s Port Hills were now contained, although the battle to put them out was continuing. … The Selwyn District Council said the Marley Hill fire appeared to be largely contained on the city side of Summit Rd by 3pm. … Operations have slowed down for the night. Marshall said there was one crew monitoring the Marley Hill fire and three watching the one at Early Valley overnight. He was expecting it to be a quiet night as there was not much wind. … Twenty-four homes had to be evacuated overnight, and a group of children were among those rescued on Monday after becoming stuck near one of the fires. Selwyn principal rural fire officer Douglas Marshall said 11 helicopters and nearly 120 firefighters were working to contain the fires on Tuesday, and could be needed for another two or three days. Three two-member firefighting crews from the New Zealand Army had also been dispatched to help. ‘The second fire … [at Marleys Hill] is working around the radio mast that’s up in that area. It’s currently working down a ridge it’s probably the top end of the [Christchurch] Adventure Park area,’ Marshall said. ‘It’s not contained. It’s still burning quite strong. … A Fire Service spokesman said the Summit Rd fire had spread across 1.5 kilometres. The flames were too aggressive to battle in the dark, so firefighters working overnight concentrated on trying to stop it spreading further” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89376043/Two-fires-rage-on-the-Port-Hills-as-one-enters-the-Christchurch-Adventure-Park

2.30pm Sugarloaf helicopter crash and pilot death. Flying halted temporarily, stakes raised greatly.

Helicopter pilot dies while fighting Christchurch wild fires “Douglas Marshall, principal rural fire authority officer at the Selwyn District Council, said the accident was a tragedy. ‘Firefighting is difficult and dangerous work … our thoughts are with the deceased [person’s] family at this time.’ He said it was possible a number of pilots involved in helping to douse flames would want to stand down following the accident, and authorities were respecting that decision. In a statement, Selwyn District Emergency Management said the Marley Hill fire remains contained, although ground crews are monitoring activity along the Summit Rd. The other fire at Early Valley is also contained, but there are some spots of fire burning downhill from the ridgeline above Governors Bay and Allandale. Helicopters will continue to operate until nightfall tonight and from first light tomorrow. The area of both fires combined as estimated at about 580ha.”
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11800525

SDC-2. Tai Tapu/Port Hills fires – update 3pm “The Marley Hill fire appears to be largely contained on the city side of the Summit Road. Parts of the Early Valley Road fire have crossed the Summit Road towards Governors Bay. Current activity across both fires is focused on efforts to protect structures and prevent the fire from spreading.” http://www.selwyn.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/216188/Port-Hills-fire-update-3pm-14-Feb.pdf
SDC-3. Tai Tapu/Port Hills fires – update 6.30pm “The current situation with the fires are that the Marley Hill Fire remains contained, although ground crews are monitoring activity along the Summit Road. Significant effort put into the Early Valley fire today has resulted in it being effectively contained, although there are some spots of fire burning downhill from the ridgeline above Governors Bay and Allandale. The New Zealand Fire Service is undertaking active structure protection in this area. Helicopters will continue to operate until nightfall tonight and from first light tomorrow. No further structures have been lost beyond those reported earlier.” http://www.selwyn.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/216189/PORT-HILLS-FIRES-6pm-update-14-Feb.pdf

Wednesday 15 February 2017
Governors Bay evacuations overnight by Civil Defence; that fire contained, residents returned.
Evacuation #2 of 3 was ignored – emergency not declared.
Smoke then fire broke out in a big way in the Cashmere Valley and Port Hills south-west of Christchurch city.
Chaos had been unleashed which led to panic, mass evacuations, misinformation and terrible overnight fear.
Evacuation #3, widespread in panic and south-west Port Hills areas affected, was acted upon:
6pm A local emergency was declared jointly by the Selwyn and Christchurch mayors.

Port Hills Fires, Christchurch, Feb 15th 2017 – YouTube time-lapses, Dru Norriss

Port Hills fires: Live updates – extract
“1:00am Marley’s Hill fire escalates, as fire spreads downhill through the forest.. within 150m of Sign of the Kiwi
3:00am 700 Governors Bay and Allandale residents evacuated. Governors Bay School which is closed today
5:00am Fire seen close to the chair lift at the Christchurch Adventure Park
7:00am City council activates the Emergency Operations Centre to coordinate the welfare operation
8:00am Helicopters are filling up monsoon buckets in the Heathcote River, corner of Hoon Hay Valley Rd and Cashmere Rd
9:00am –We’ve broken its back’: Governors Bay chief fire officer Andrew Norris
9.09am Health warning over smoke
9.27am Helicopters are using water from ponds and dams on farms in the Lansdowne area to fill monsoon buckets to fight the Early Valley Rd fire. Two helicopters can be seen in the air above the fire and two others are refueling.
10.34am Conditions are fine and dry as firefighters continue to tackle fires on the Port Hills. MetService forecaster Cameron Coutts said winds were gentle, at about 17km/h, at the moment and had been blowing south west for some time. A north east change with 37km/h winds should hit the hills from about mid-afternoon, before dying down tonight
12:30pm Technicians are waiting to get access to transmitters that operate the city’s emergency services dispatch, including ambulance and police. Power was lost on Monday at the Marley Hill location and it is operating on batteries
1:56pm Power outages across the city
2:30pm: More fire service resources are being sent to the Christchurch Adventure Park, to assess if structures can be saved
3:00pm Victoria Park is being closed as thick smoke billows from the Christchurch Adventure Park
3:10pm Fire units are on their way to Worsleys Rd, Kennedy’s Bush, after reports houses are being threatened
3:15pm Fire crews are currently working to control a flare up in Worsleys Spur area in the vicinity of the Christchurch Adventure Park.
3:25pm Police are evacuating residents from homes on Worsleys Rd near Summit Rd. Three houses are under threat from the fire. A Cashmere resident described it as an ‘inferno’
3:31pm Helicopter resources are stretched and one is not available at the moment to drop water on the Christchurch Adventure Park
3:59pm Police have cordoned off Westmorland at Cashmere Rd and are urging people to prepare for an evacuation.
5:10pm Reports of residents being evacuated from the Cracroft area.
5:18pm Police have confirmed houses on Kennedys Bush Rd and its intersecting streets are being evacuated. Residents are heading to Pioneer Stadium
5:28pm Fire service has just issued a directive for all vehicles to get off Dyers Pass Rd
5:32pm Fire fighters say the blaze will ‘punch’ its way out of McVicars Plantation and hit the first corner of Dyers Pass Rd below the Sign of Kiwi before dark
6:00pm A command centre has been set up at the Sign of the Takahe
6:15pm The mayors of Christchurch and Selwyn have made a joint decision to declare states of emergency in the areas
6:22pm Fire fighters battling flames at the Christchurch Adventure Park only have about an hours worth of water left. Crews are scrambling to get more water to them
6:41pm There are unconfirmed reports that Pentre Tce, by the Sign of the Takahe, is being evacuated
6:50pm Cashmere Rd is now closed from Kaiwara St to Kennedys Bush Rd due to evacuations in Lower Cashmere, Cracroft, Westmorland and Kennedys Bush
9:39pm Fire fighters at the Sign of the Takahe cordon are telling residents above the landmark to leave their homes as the fire spreads, with reports it has moved into Victoria Park
9:44pm Canterbury Regional Controller Neville Reilly has been deployed to the Christchurch Civil Defence Emergency Operations Centre to head the overall response to the fires
9:55pm Authorities issue urgent evacuations: ‘Residents in the area from the Sign of the Takehe to Victoria Park should evacuate their homes immediately. Authorities are advising that the fire has crossed Dyers Pass Road into Victoria Park. Police and the Defence Force are evacuating properties in the area. We are also evacuating the south side of Cashmere Road to Kennedy’s Bush Road, and to Hoon Hay Valley Road'”
http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/live-update-day/

SDC-4. Tai Tapu/Port Hills fires – update 10am “Overnight increased fire activity was reported around midnight in the area above Governors Bay. Multiple fire units were called in from around the region to assist in firefighting and protecting properties. At approximately 3am fire and police evacuated around 107 residents from the Allandale area near Governors Bay, due to the fire risk. The Christchurch City Council has activated an Emergency Operations Centre to coordinate the welfare operation which includes a welfare centre at the Governors Bay school.” http://www.selwyn.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0019/216190/Port-Hills-fires-update-10am-15-Feb.pdf
SDC-5. States of Emergency-declared in Christchurch and Selwyn “The Mayors of Christchurch City and Selwyn District have made a joint decision to declare States of Emergency in their respective areas in relation to the Port Hills fires. The declaration follows the evacuation this afternoon of 200-300 residents as the fire shifted closer to residential properties. It is no longer just a significant rural fire on the boundary of the city. It is now a city issue with suburbs being evacuated. Christchurch Mayor Lianne Dalziel says a city response is also required to ensure the safety and welfare of residents… Selwyn District Mayor Sam Broughton says, ‘we acknowledge there has been a huge effort responding to the fire to date, however this declaration recognises the seriousness of the situation, and this will allow us to provide all the assistance necessary to respond to the unfolding situation. The district and the city must work together to manage the situation and address the different challenges the fire is creating in each area.'” http://www.selwyn.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/216191/States-of-Emergency-declared-CHCH-Selwyn-15-Feb.pdf
SDC-6. Port Hills/ Tai Tapu fire update: Residents should be prepared to evacuate – update 7.15pm “The Marley Hill fire has spread extensively down Worsley Spur, causing extensive vegetation burning in the Christchurch Adventure Park. The fire is approaching the residential area of Westmoreland.” http://www.selwyn.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/216192/Port-Hills-fire-update-7.15pm-Wed-15-Feb.pdf

Port Hills fires: Some south west suburbs evacuate
http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/westmorland-evacuate-as-fire-spreads/

Port Hills fire: Homes destroyed, more residents evacuating
http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/emergency/more-evacuations-as-fire-rages-in-christchurchs-port-hills/

Homes destroyed, families evacuated as Christchurch fires spread “More than 1000 residents have fled their homes and at least eight properties have burned to the ground as a huge wild fire rages on in Christchurch. Terrified residents ran clutching precious belongings or bundled children into cars as the black smoke ballooned from the flames tearing through tinder dry scrub land. Several fires have now merged into one which is threatening dense residential housing. The blaze is estimated to have scorched more than 1850ha of land and is still growing. A state of emergency was declared in Christchurch and Selwyn, the Defence Force was deployed and health authorities issued warnings to vulnerable residents as black smoke drifted across the city. Civil Defence revised down the number of homes destroyed on Worsley Spur tonight to at least three after earlier issuing a statement saying 40 homes had been lost. A spokeswoman said the error was the result of misinformation being given to a rural fire officer and was revised following a ‘correction from the police on earlier information’. The incorrect figure was widely reported earlier tonight by media and made it into some copies of the morning Herald. Little information was available on how the error occurred but hard questions will no doubt be asked of authorities in the morning” http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11801058

Live: Fires continue to rage through Christchurch’s Port Hills
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/christchurch-helicopter-s-stood-down-from-firefighting.html

State of Emergency declared “Christchurch Mayor Lianne Dalziel and Selwyn District Mayor Sam Broughton made a joint decision to declare the State of Emergency. It follows the evacuation of 200-300 residents as the fire shifted closer to residential properties in the south-west. Minister of Defence Gerry Brownlee has announced New Zealand Defence Force personnel have been asked to assist with fighting the fires. Ms Dalziel said a city response was also required to ensure the safety and welfare of residents. ‘Christchurch needs a multi-agency response given the seriousness of the situation. We need to be able to draw on all the resources possible to give our residents confidence in the ongoing response.’ Mr Broughton said: ‘We acknowledge there has been a huge effort responding to the fire to date, however this declaration recognises the seriousness of the situation, and this will allow us to provide all the assistance necessary to respond to the unfolding situation. The district and the city must work together to manage the situation and address the different challenges the fire is creating in each area.'” http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/state-of-emergency-declared-city/

Editorial: Why did it take so long to declare state of emergency? “The terrifying change on Wednesday afternoon, which saw the situation deteriorate rapidly, shows there can be no room for complacency or confusion among those in charge of dealing with the emergency… Civil Defence Minister Gerry Brownlee expressed frustration that a state of emergency was not declared earlier by the Selwyn District Council, the lead agency in fighting the fires, or the Christchurch City Council, within the boundaries of which much of the burning land is situated. The emergency was eventually declared on Wednesday evening when flames threatened city suburbs, then destroyed more houses and forced mass evacuations. It was obvious to anyone that the situation was getting worse not better, when the amount of smoke rising from the hills expanded enormously. Questions will now need to be asked whether the Selwyn Rural Fire Authority acted decisively enough and quickly enough, deploying all available resources. For instance, it seems that tankers, equipment and personnel had been on standby at Burnham Military Camp, but could not move, by law, while the army waited for a request from the civil authorities that was slow in coming. Criticism of emergency services at the height of a crisis is easy to make and often ill-advised. However, it is clear that there are lessons to be learned from this emergency, and the various authorities will need to take an honest and hard look at themselves when it is over… people deserve the best possible leadership, and bosses who will take timely and decisive action to make their task easier.”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/opinion/89454212/Editorial-Why-did-it-take-so-long-to-declare-state-of-emergency Comment RT – “Yes, it was the neutralisation of regional government by district and central government in cahoots, that left hills residents so dangerously out on a limb. Without that unseemly plot, collaboration and resources could have been swung in, through ECan CDEM services, from first light on the Tuesday to stop the fires cold. Shameful top-level performances, yet again: so ready to blame front-line fire-fighters, as at the CTV building collapse. Beyond shame, a deregulating City and Beehive are culpable!”

Port Hills on dark 150217

South Christchurch Port Hills, on dark, 15 Feb 2017 – Sugarloaf, Victoria Park and Worsleys Spur all fire-involved, left to right

Thursday 16 February 2017
After lower Sugarloaf had flared it soon went dark, with Victoria Park more flame-free overnight. But a day of downgraded hazard was needed for assurance that the fire was burning out up there, while it burnt on more strongly in the Adventure Park valley below and with the western fire areas more at risk under prevailing easterly wind conditions. A day of extended, thus exaggerated, panic pending better official reports from the fire fronts that were slow in coming – very formal conservatism characterises response from start to finish. ‘Safety first’.

Port Hills fires: Live updates – extract
“12.59am The Port Hill fires have now merged into one, developing significantly during the afternoon and into this evening. At least three additional houses have been destroyed in the area of Worsleys Rd
2am Six people from Pentworth Pl in Westmorland have been evacuated and are sleeping over at Te Hapua, which has been opened for evacuated residents, along with Nga Hau e Wha Marae. It appears most people that have been evacuated have found their own accommodation. In addition to rural fire staff, a group of 86 made up of 50 New Zealand Police and 36 New Zealand Defence Force personnel are working overnight on the Port Hills Fire response. They are doing evacuations, joint patrols and reassuring people in the areas impacted by the fires
3.25am There are still some very active fire fronts up on the Port Hills, but not as many as there were prior to midnight. A large number of fire crews have been on the ground working hard to protect properties overnight. A drop in fire activity can also be attributed to a decrease in temperature and a rise in humidity. Helicopters are expected to start an aerial attack at first light. Approximately 400 households have been evacuated in the areas around Victoria Park/Dyers Pass Road, Worsleys Rd, Westmorland and Kennedys Bush
4.55am Police are now evacuating residents downhill of the Sign of the Takahe on Dyers Pass Rd as far as and including Kiteroa Pl and Pentre Tce. Residents will be contact directly by police who are in the area now knocking on doors. If you feel unsafe, you are advised to self-evacuate. Police have continued to express concerns about traffic and people in the area and directed all non-residents to stay away, keeping it clear for emergency services
6.06am More than 1000 residents have fled their homes and at least eight properties have burned to the ground as a huge wild fire rages on in Christchurch. Several fires have now merged into one which is threatening dense residential housing. The blaze is estimated to have scorched more than 1850ha of land and is still growing.
6.24am The latest report is the fire has spread to the harbour side of Sugar Loaf. Evacuations are continuing on the Port Hills with a total of 450 properties officially evacuated. Others have self-evacuated as the fire spread overnight
6.44am Helicopter crews are starting to rejoin firefighting efforts. Aerial teams could be seen leaving the Christchurch Airport area at daybreak on Thursday
6.46am Civil Defence Minister Gerry Brownlee will arrive in Christchurch on Thursday morning. He has been critical of how long it took for a State of Emergency to be declared and questioned why rural firefighters were in charge of a fire inside the city boundaries.
6.55am Around 126 homes remain without power due to the fire
7.30am Broadcast provider Kordia has activated its disaster recovery plan as the fire engulfs land around Sugar Loaf. It has activated its disaster recovery plan and is transporting spare equipment to Christchurch
7.52am Military help for Christchurch is on standby – but hasn’t yet been asked for. Lieutenant Colonel Rob Loftus said almost 40 Defence Force personnel are on the ground so far. The Defence Force has been helping out with evacuations. Civil Defense minister Gerry Brownlee said it is up to the Fire Service to ask for further help – he is concerned they’ll leave it too late, Newstalk ZB reports
9:22am The Civil Defence bunker at Parliament is being activated
11.19am The impact of the fires on people is starting to be felt. Canterbury Civil Defence Controller John Mackie said they received a report of five incidents from health services. He said health and welfare services are also turning their attention to the psycho-social impact of the fires
11:32am More fire appliances are being called to the Christchurch Adventure Park to help battle the fire
12:12pm Firefighters in the Christchurch Adventure Park have setup monitoring stations at the base of the chairlift and cafe as a contingency plan
12:15pm Flames 6 to 8 metres tall are threatening a house at Kennedys Bush. Two fire crews are on the way
12.17pm Fire crews on Worsleys Rd have lost water pressure and are attempting to get it back
12.45pm Prime Minister Bill English and Gerry Brownlee are in the air surveying the fire scene
4:29pm Firefighters are calling for more water tankers up Kennedys Bush Rd to assist fighting the fire. They have asked for 4WD vehicle specifically. Firefighters have noticed another flare up
7:24pm Cordons remain in place with police and Defence Force staff patrolling
10:09pm ‘While there are still areas burning out of control, the fire is contained within the 2075 hectare area.'”
http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/live-update-day/

From the archives: A tale of two boys
http://www.noted.co.nz/currently/profiles/from-the-archives-a-tale-of-two-boys/

Port Hills fire: 11 homes destroyed, 1000 people evacuated
http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/emergency/port-hills-fire-800-people-evacuated-many-ordered-out-of-bed-overnight/

Christchurch Port Hills fires: What you need to know on Thursday
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89462014/christchurch-port-hills-fires-what-you-need-to-know

Watch: Christchurch wakes to a city ablaze
http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/watch-christchurch-wakes-to-a-city-ablaze/

Map: The extent of the blaze
http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/the-extent-of-the-blaze/

New video shows devastation at Christchurch Adventure Park
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/new-video-shows-devastation-at-christchurch-adventure-park.html

Mayors defend actions after Minister Brownlee criticism “The two mayors met with Brownlee today and afterward Dalziel defended the handling of the fire, saying she and Broughton had declared the state of emergency to ensure people took it seriously when told to evacuate rather than because of the need for more resources. ‘We did that together not because it was needed for any resources to be brought to bear but because it was to give people confidence that when the Police told them they were to evacuate, they were to evacuate: this is an emergency.’ She said there were already sufficient resources in place to fight the fire and the state of emergency was called within an hour and a half of the mayors being advised people were being evacuated”
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11802069

Friday 17 February 2017

Editorial: Lack of information on Port Hills fires excruciating “Some will say that when a crisis of this magnitude hits, people need to get on with dealing with it, rather than telling people what is going on. This is misguided. Reliable information is crucial in dangerous times – to calm public anxiety, to mobilise resources from within the community, to tell people to move when they need to, and to warn people to stay away at times. … Fear and hysteria are more likely when people are ill-informed. In Christchurch this week, the state of emergency was declared 48 hours after the fires started, after mass evacuations began and only after a serious escalation of the blazes which might have been foreseen in a worst-case-scenario risk assessment. Civil Defence guidelines state that states of emergency should be declared ‘early rather than late’ – advice which seems to have been ignored in this case. No-one can doubt the bravery and dedication of those on the front lines, but there seems to have been blocked lines of communication at the strategic level. Maybe part of the problem is that New Zealand, a country of just 4.5 million people, has multiple layers of authorities and agencies with sometimes conflicting roles. The fires have burned across the boundaries of Christchurch City and Selwyn District, which is why the state of emergency was declared jointly by mayors Lianne Dalziel and Sam Broughton. How long did it take them to co-ordinate that decision? Could a single authority have done it more quickly? Brownlee had the power to declare an emergency himself, as did the wider-area Civil Defence Emergency Management Group, but they did not do so. The Selwyn Rural Fire Authority was the lead agency in fighting the fires, which seemed incongruous once houses in Christchurch city suburbs began to burn. There has to be a swifter and simpler way of dealing with emergencies, and in letting people know how to react. That needs to be one of the lessons learned from these fires.” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/89503846/editorial-lack-of-information-on-port-hills-fires-excrutiating

Civil Defence Minister believes state of emergency should’ve been declared earlier
https://www.maoritelevision.com/news/regional/civil-defence-minister-believes-state-emergency-shouldve-been-declared-earlier

Port Hills fire: ‘Impact is the biggest in NZ history’ “The fire broke out on Monday night and was at it’s peak on Wednesday afternoon when two huge columns of smoke started to build, intensifying the flames and pushing crews to their limit. ‘A lot of people are asking why we weren’t putting water on it while it was burning away,’ said Rural Fire sector boss Phil Crutchley. ‘We were looking at 100,000 kilowatts of temperature per square metre – any water we put on that just evaporated. We just pulled back, it was just too dangerous. There was nothing we could do that would have stopped that.’ As a result, homes were lost and other properties damaged – but he made no apology. The columns had the power of two atomic bombs behind them and there was nothing on earth that could have been done to take the guts out of them.”
http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/port-hills-fire-impact-is-the-biggest-in-nz-history/

Beginning of Port Hills fire: How McCarthy Contractors responded when they first saw smoke “Christchurch Mayor Lianne Dalziel and Selwyn Mayor Sam Broughton conceded there were communication problems between the different fire organisations in Canterbury, and declaring a state of emergency took too long.”
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11802653

Firefighters were sent home early from Christchurch fire response, union says “New Zealand Professional Firefighters Union Secretary Derek Best has called for an independent inquiry. He said firefighters were sent home for 90 minutes at nightfall on Monday after they had contained but not extinguished the fire. Just an hour and a half later they were called back to the scene, but it was too late. … an inquiry was needed not just into the fire services but into the entire disaster response. ‘Really the same issues from the Christchurch earthquake are still present.’ … Early Valley Rd homeowner Ken McKenzie believed … ‘If action had been taken quicker and we’d got more resources to the site … it should have been able to be stopped before it headed towards town. ‘If they got helicopters and bulldozers in, it could have been stopped. The issue I have is pretty much the organisation, the level above – there’s something drastically wrong.'” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89546268/firefighters-were-sent-home-early-from-christchurch-fire-response-union-says

Port Hills fire: Firefighters ‘needlessly’ called away
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/324689/port-hills-fire-firefighters-‘needlessly’-called-away

‘Tomorrow it will hit me’: Emotional firefighter describes Port Hills fire fury “exhaustion and low morale among the firefighters in the first few days.. But when the fire became contained, the mood changed.”
http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/tomorrow-it-will-hit-me-emotional-firefighter-describes-port-hills-fire-fury/

Analysis: What could have been done to stop the Port Hills blaze? “Canterbury Civil Defence controller John Mackie says officials were ‘just going by the book’ when leaving the initial response to the fires to Selwyn’s rural fire team, rather than Christchurch officials. ‘That’s prescribed in the act… the responsibility for the rural fire lies on the authority in whose area it starts – even though it may cross a boundary, that jurisdiction doesn’t change.’ Mackie says Canterbury’s Civil Defence group set up an emergency operations centre early on Wednesday morning, as Governors Bay came under threat, and made the case for a state of emergency when evacuations started to increase later that afternoon. Christchurch Mayor Lianne Dalziel denies officials were too slow to declare a state of emergency, saying work on the declaration began ‘from the moment we were advised that people were being evacuated from their houses’. There was no issue of firefighters lacking in numbers, Mackie says – it was simply that they felt they had the fire under control, before the weather began to conspire against them. ‘The rural fire officers were saying that they had ample resources available: it was only when [there was an] escalation of the number of people being evacuated, and the [increased] risk to urban residents, that was the main reason for the declaration.’ But couldn’t there have been more helicopters with monsoon buckets in the air, or firefighters on the ground? Not according to Selwyn Mayor Sam Broughton, who says there are more choppers available than there is room for them. ‘We’re at saturation point in the sky – there’s not another helicopter that could fit in the space safely.’ … Labour Port Hills MP Ruth Dyson says lessons from the response to the fire can wait until after it is extinguished for good.”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/89466598/analysis-what-could-have-been-done-to-stop-the-port-hills-blaze

Hosking critiques Civil Defence 190217

Mike Hosking critiques Civil Defence response, Seven Sharp 17 Feb 2017


Mike Hosking on Seven Sharp, TV1 – ‘Nationalise Civil Defence, scrap regional CDEM’ http://tvnz.co.nz/seven-sharp/mike-s-view-communication-hopeless-during-christchurch-fire-disaster-video-6515331 – This simplistic view is circulating amongst those distant from response, where the instinct to ‘make the chaotic situation sensible’ overrides grasp of reality.

In disasters, scale overwhelms sensibility. Reporting can far from keep pace. So many moving parts and uncertainties are involved that synchronisation is not possible. Responders are overwhelmed, trying to face down the unleashed hazard. Every scrap of resource is needed. This can include many, many volunteers. These are ground factors that will never be fully known, understood or controlled at a distance.

Hosking and Brownlee’s wish for centralised civil defence would be to put many more people in much greater harms way, without the ability to confront and respond to their own challenges immediately, directly and collectively, on the ground they discover and face. That is why what the mis-leaders want hasn’t been the case.

The regional system of response escalation simply needs to be understood, supported and made to work. This starts with identifying and removing the particular empowered obstacles to regional civil defence who oppose and inhibit it, to great public detriment. Look to the statements and behaviour of all the local mayors we’ve had especially. City has consistently undermined region, so far. Unacceptable.

Saturday 18 February 2017
Christchurch City Council and Civil Defence held a first large meeting with evacuated residents, in Spreydon’s South-West Baptist Church gymnasium on the Saturday morning ending a fiery week. Attendees were mostly from Kennedy’s Bush and very distressed. Easterly winds still held their homes most at risk, that they hadn’t really understood until this point. Recently-buried asbestos on private land was of great concern and news to most residents too; ECan fronted to say this had been approved. Every evacuated area was represented at the meeting where information flow was roundly criticised and a single online up-to-date source demanded; also, hourly email updates from council on what was happening. These started around mid-day the next day, semi-hourly. Collated: https://ccc.govt.nz/the-council/newsline/show/1406

Council’s primary goal out of this meeting was to break it down into more manageable, evacuated street by street meetings (which took place the following Thursday, 23 Feb). Next to the fire, residents were being hosed down now. They were understandably angered by inept emergency response leading to property damage, disruption and loss. After 90 minutes many were were walking out though and an outside corridor large informal meet-up ensued. The city mayor wanted to join it as the back of the gym audience hadn’t been connecting with the front, unheard due to poor microphone sharing and crowd engagement. Dalziel was peremptorily reminded by those still seated though, “We’re the ones paying attention!” and had to continue on-stage for a later closing.

Alistair Humphreys addresses fire evacuees 18Feb2017

Canterbury Medical Officer of Health, Alistair Humphreys addresses fire evacuees, 18 Feb 2017


NZ Fire Service and Civil Defence etc reps answer fire evacuee questions 18Feb2017

NZ Fire Service, Rural Fire and Civil Defence etc reps answer fire evacuee questions, 18 Feb 2017

John Key’s government had sacked the wrong council, for private profit, early 2010. A regional response would have been more powerful, sooner, with likely much better results than this very obvious fire response debacle.

Communications and cordons heavily criticised at Port Hills meeting “Dalziel promised that the council would review the response and do better in the future. The meeting came a day after the professional firefighters union told media they could have extinguished the fire on Monday, had they not been sent home for 90 minutes.”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89559332/communications-and-cordons-heavily-criticised-at-port-hills-meeting

Port Hills fire: more than 100 properties still cordoned
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/324774/port-hills-fire-more-than-100-properties-still-cordoned

Sunday 19 February 2017
Port Hills residents clean up and clear out
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89576326/port-hills-residents-clean-up-and-clear-out

Parts of Christchurch’s Port Hills likely to remain closed for several weeks
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89564881/parts-of-christchurchs-port-hills-likely-to-remain-closed-for-several-weeks

Mark Reason: John Key goes from PM to shameless salesman in record time “Who knows what Key believes in, although certainly investment in himself and engagement of us seem near to top of the list” http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/opinion/89532461/Mark-Reason-John-Key-goes-from-PM-to-shameless-salesman-in-record-time

Monday 20 February 2017 – one week on

‘Nobody wants a dead hero’: celebrated Christchurch fires helicopter pilot Steve Askin farewelled http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/89581850/funeral-for-celebrated-christchurch-fires-helicopter-pilot-steve-askin

Firefighters could have died if not pulled back during Port Hills blaze “When you’ve got that amount of heat coming up the hill and big boulders rolling down the hill, what do you think is the right call in that situation.”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/89581311/bad-weather-grounds-helicopters-fighting-port-hills-blaze

While Christchurch burns, Wellington talks “‘bringing together rural, urban, volunteer and paid urban firefighters into one national organisation for the first time’. The new Fire and Emergency New Zealand (Fenz) will mean ‘a much better standard of service delivery, a much better deal for our rural and volunteer firefighters and a much better deal for New Zealanders’ … The response in Christchurch suggested an uncoordinated system. Who should have called a state of emergency and when, exactly? Why, Brownlee asked, were the rural fire services leading things? ‘I’m perplexed as to why you’ve got the Selwyn District or rural firefighters running things inside Christchurch City Council district boundaries’ … The updated law, after advice from firefighters, will clarify that letting a fire burn can be a valid response to a fire. … only NZ First was opposed to moving this legislation on to the next phase. … Two reports from Australia have convinced him [Clayton Mitchell] that mergers of urban and rural services favour the urban culture at the expense of rural. Do we risk driving the rural volunteers away?” [emphasis added] http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/89488611/while-christchurch-burns-wellington-talks

Port Hills fire evacuations: ‘Nothing ever seems to change’
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/324856/port-hills-fire-evacuations-‘nothing-ever-seems-to-change’

Dunne responds to criticism of Port Hills fire
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/201833839/dunne-responds-to-criticism-of-port-hills-fire

Christchurch Mayor criticised for lack of information
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/201833830/christchurch-mayor-criticised-for-lack-of-information

Port Hills resident frustrated at lack of information
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/201833828/port-hills-resident-frustrated-at-lack-of-information

Civil Defence ‘failing’ to give Port Hills residents vital info
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/201833816/civil-defence-‘failing’-to-give-port-hills-residents-vital-info

Mike Yardley: Response to Christchurch fires from officials ‘rudderless’ “as the past seven days have unfolded, a multitude of alarm bells have been rightly rung about the cack-handed response and somewhat rudderless leadership from officialdom. The acting Civil Defence Minister, Gerry Brownlee, was far from alone in feeling ‘perplexed’ at the belated nature of the state of civil emergency being declared. Social media lit up on Wednesday afternoon, as the inferno raging across the Port Hills seemingly galloped out of control. Hundreds of residents vented their increasing dismay and disbelief at the apparent failure of the Selwyn and Christchurch mayors to get to grips with the enormity of the ever-billowing threat. Individuals were pleading with Mayor Dalziel and senior city councillors, via their Facebook pages, to urgently declare a state of emergency. It took a further two hours after Westmorland was suddenly evacuated at 4pm, before the declaration was issued. Some hillside residents had packed and were ready to self-evacuate at 1pm. They could see the situation gravely deteriorating, first-hand.”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89612043/mike-yardley-response-to-christchurch-fires-from-officials-rudderless
– Yardley’s anti-ECan positioning has long blinded him to insight into defective regional response. Use what we have, don’t hinder it! Yardley’s wanting “declaration issued much earlier in the afternoon” is a joke. First thing Tuesday was the right time, the only time to have hit the fires from the air with everything possible and cauterise the threat. A declaration then would have been entirely reasonable, given the extreme dry hills risk at this time and that fire spanned two district boundaries – the ECan CDEM action trigger, purportedly. Declaration early Tuesday and military resources were available as regional council options, but ECan naysayers like Mike and Gerry have it firmly in a sealed box, held captive and useless. At least Huntsbury remained safe. Not.

John Campbell on RNZ Checkpoint – ‘What went wrong? It depends who you ask’
Hundreds of people waiting to return home after Port Hills fire
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/201833922/hundreds-of-people-waiting-to-return-home-after-port-hills-fire
– helping Ruth Dyson provide cover for ongoing National-Labour CDEM botches,
Fire and Emergency Bill would provide clarity in major events
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/201833923/fire-and-emergency-bill-would-provide-clarity-in-major-events

Tuesday 21 February 2017

Port Hills fire – Update Tuesday 12:20pm: State of Emergency extended
“‘this remains a serious situation that requires a significant and coordinated multi-agency response,’ the Mayor said. ‘While the State of Emergency terminates tomorrow evening, we are mindful of the significance of 22 February to the Canterbury community and as a result we agreed it was appropriate to consider the status of the State of Emergency today.’ The extension automatically lasts for seven days, but can be terminated earlier. The Joint Committee will meet on Friday to consider the transition to recovery. That will be an appropriate time to reconsider the need for the State of Emergency to remain in place”
https://ccc.govt.nz/the-council/newsline/show/1406

State of Emergency extended: ‘The fire is not out’
http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/state-of-emergency-extended-the-fire-is-not-out/

Wednesday 22 February 2017

Christchurch Civil Defence
Port Hills Fire – Update #8 – 5.30pm
“Fire progress: The Fire Service is pleased to announce that good progress has been made in controlling the fire in the Worselys Road area. Patrols will continue in the area, but crews will no longer be actively working in the area unless called in for a flare up. Residents are asked to help by being vigilant and to DIAL 111 IMMEDIATELY IF THEY SEE ANY SIGN OF THE FIRE REIGNITING. ‘Our crews have made great progress and we’re pleased to be able to pull back from the Worsleys area, but we really need people to keep a watch on things for us,’ said Fire Service Liaison Officer Bruce Irvine. ‘The more eyes we have out there looking the better.’ Fire services are continuing operations in other areas affected by the fire.”

Christchurch Earthquake Memorial draws on rich tradition of memorials around the world
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/christchurch-earthquake-2011/89638351/christchurch-earthquake-memorial-draws-on-rich-tradition-of-memorials-around-the-world

Thursday 23 February 2017

Christchurch Civil Defence
Port Hills Fire – Update #3 – 1pm
“Fire operations: Fire services advise that 90% of the fire perimeter area is now considered to be controlled. Controlled is defined as bare earth or blacked out ground for at least 10 metres.”

Residents Update:
Port Hills Fire – Update #4 – 1.30pm
“Free GP visits are being offered to people affected by the Port Hills fires, at the discretion of their General Practice team. This includes people who worked on or are still working on fire control and recovery operations. The offer period covers the 2 months from 13 February 2017, the day the fire started.”

24 February 2017

The science behind the South Island’s first fire tornado
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89730960/the-science-behind-the-south-islands-first-fire-tornado

25 February 2017

Port Hills fires recovery managers named
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/89796995/port-hills-fires-recovery-managers-named

National portrait: Richard McNamara, the face of the Port Hills fires
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89700695/national-portrait-richard-mcnamara-the-face-of-the-port-hills-fires

26 February 2017

Port Hills fires rubberneckers ‘not welcome’, says Christchurch City Council
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/89807125/port-hills-fires-rubberneckers-not-welcome-says-christchurch-city-council

A good steady rain, this day – 5-12mm across the fire ground, low-high altitude.

Monday 27 February 2017 – two weeks on

Editorial: Civil Defence faces an uncertain future Fire and Emergency New Zealand – “after Fenz has expanded to include Civil Defence it could eventually broaden to cover ambulance services as well”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/opinion/89779025/editorial-civil-defence-faces-an-uncertain-future

28 February 2017
Government, city council pledge $6 million to grow ‘resilience’ in Canterbury The Press

Wednesday 1 March 2017 – State of Emergency lifted at 6pm

Port Hills fires: State of emergency to lift, hill residents on alert for flare-ups
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/89915130/port-hills-fires-state-of-emergency-to-lift-hill-residents-on-alert

Saturday 4 March 2017

Devastated Port Hills now open to public by road
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/90057550/devastated-port-hills-now-open-to-public

Fire perimeter now fully contained and controlled “Fire authorities working on the Port Hills fire are now confident the fire is substantially under control and are withdrawing overnight patrols.”
https://ccc.govt.nz/the-council/newsline/show/1406

Friday 10 March 2017
Port Hills fires exposed tensions and confusion within fire crews, but change will come The Press http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/90275638/fire-reforms-will-change-way-fires-like-those-in-the-port-hills-are-fought + Firestorm graphical essay research https://assets.stuff.co.nz/interactives/2017/firestorm/

Thursday 20 April 2017
Port Hills fires finally extinguished “Fire authorities say the massive blaze that broke out on Christchurch’s Port Hills two months ago, burning through 2000ha of land, is now completely out.”
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/329135/port-hills-fires-finally-extinguished

Thursday 11 May 2017
Port Hills chopper crash caused by bucket cables – report Radio NZ
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/330550/port-hills-chopper-crash-caused-by-bucket-cables-report

[Further editing may follow]

Live: Homes evacuated as Christchurch Port Hills fires rage out of control 16 Feb 2017
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89455976/live-homes-evacuated-as-christchurch-port-hills-fire-rage-out-of-control

LIVE: Port Hills fire – Day 4 Radio NZ 16 Feb 2017
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/324608/live-battle-to-contain-port-hills-fires-continues

Port Hills blaze: Live updates Newshub
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/port-hills-blaze-live-updates.html +

Christchurch Port Hills blaze in photos
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/christchurch-port-hills-blaze-in-photos.html

Is Civil Defence really in control of the Christchurch fires? “it’s high time for less bureaucracy and more open and honest communication. Civil Defence does not want the blood of New Zealanders on its hands. Who can the public trust in times of national emergency? At the moment it’s the media” Newshub 16 Feb 2017 http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/the-burning-question-is-civil-defence-really-in-control-of-the-christchurch-fires.html

Mayors’ war of words with Brownlee over Port Hills state of emergency “Mr Brownlee said the most accurate information about the fire on Wednesday came from the media – not officials. Those in charge of the fire response have ‘got to learn’ from this experience, Mr Brownlee said. ‘I was in Wellington, not Christchurch.’ Prime Minister Bill English also confirmed there will be a review of the Civil Defence response and the delay in declaring a state of emergency.” http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/mayors-war-of-words-with-brownlee-over-port-hills-state-of-emergency.html

Patrick Gower: Port Hills fire shows Civil Defence a shambles yet again
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2017/02/patrick-gower-port-hills-fire-shows-civil-defence-a-shambles-yet-again.html

Port Hills fire: 1000 people forced to evacuate “For the second time, James Frost has lost a home to disaster in Christchurch. He said he found out at 11pm on Wednesday that the fire had reached his evacuated home.. while most police officers were good, one of his flatmates was left in tears because of a police officer who ‘didn’t have the people skills to deal with the scenario'” http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/port-hills-blaze-evacuees-forced-to-leave-everything-behind.html

Port Hills community pulls together to find homes for animal evacuees
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/port-hills-community-pulls-together-to-find-homes-for-animal-evacuees.html

Port Hills family loses classic car collection, home in fire
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/port-hills-family-loses-classic-car-collection-home-in-fire.html

Video: Social media reacts to Christchurch fire
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/video-social-media-reacts-to-christchurch-fire.html

[1] CTV refs.
Canterbury Television: New Zealand’s SHAME The Press 10 March 2017
https://riktindall.wordpress.com/2013/10/04/canterbury-television-new-zealands-shame/
September 4 #JUSTICE 4 #CTV families
https://riktindall.wordpress.com/2013/09/04/september-4-justice-4-ctv-families-christchurch-quake-new-zealand-eqnz-ccc-chch-nz/
Civil defence fail compensation due #JohnKey #NZ
https://riktindall.wordpress.com/2013/02/21/civil-defence-fail-compensation-due-johnkey-nz-new-zealand-eqnz-christchurch-quake-chch-cdem-ctv-22feb2011-nzdf-ecan/
#CTV inquest. 214 dead. #EQNZ #PikeRiver #Chch #quake
https://riktindall.wordpress.com/2013/01/21/ctv-inquest-214-dead-eqnz-pikeriver-chch-quake-cdem-nz-arrestjohnkey-ecan-ows-christchurch/

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Re: Christchurch imaginary killer tsunami

The 14 November early-morning debacle 2016, where false tsunami evacuation alerts panicked so many into a dark night after the Wairau 7.8-magnitude earthquake, was unacceptable waste and fear-mongering cry-wolf. Some had homes looted that public donations then had to compensate.[1] These Christchurch city alarms should not have been sounded for this event, two hours too late anyway. Many chose correctly to ignore them. What is going on? Blame government that does not seem to care or even know how to.

The fact is, government knew there was no tsunami risk from the first evaluation but still allowed the panic to waste massive time and resource energy:

“314
WEPA42 PHEB 140042
TIBPAC

TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
0042 UTC MON NOV 14 2016

…PTWC TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT…

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THIS STATEMENT IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.

NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
INFORMATION.

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
———————————

* MAGNITUDE 6.8
* ORIGIN TIME 0034 UTC NOV 14 2016
* COORDINATES 42.7 SOUTH 173.4 EAST
* DEPTH 10 KM / 6 MILES
* LOCATION SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND

EVALUATION
———-

* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 6.8 OCCURRED IN
SOUTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND AT 0034 UTC ON MONDAY NOVEMBER 14
2016.

* BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA… THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT
FROM THIS EARTHQUAKE.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
——————-

* NO ACTION IS REQUIRED.

NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
————————————–

* THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED OR THE SITUATION CHANGES.

* AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV/EARTHQUAKES -ALL LOWER CASE-.

* FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV AND AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF HAWAII… AMERICAN SAMOA… GUAM… AND
CNMI SHOULD REFER TO PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES
SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE PLACES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA… OREGON… WASHINGTON…
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD ONLY REFER TO U.S.
NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES THAT CAN BE FOUND
AT NTWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.

$$” – http://ptwc.weather.gov/?region=1&id=pacific.TIBPAC.2016.11.14.0042

The initial earthquake magnitude estimates ran:
http://ptwc.weather.gov/ptwc/text.php?id=pacific.TIBPAC.2016.11.13.1113 7.4
http://ptwc.weather.gov/ptwc/text.php?id=pacific.TIBPAC.2016.11.13.1150 7.9
http://ptwc.weather.gov/ptwc/text.php?id=pacific.TIBPAC.2016.11.13.1304 7.9
http://ptwc.weather.gov/ptwc/text.php?id=pacific.TIBPAC.2016.11.14.0042 6.8
http://ptwc.weather.gov/ptwc/text.php?id=hawaii.TIBHWX.2016.11.14.0043 6.8
So the earthquake size was quite accurately known – until downplayed to 6.6 by GNS Science for days – and tsunami danger was accurately ruled out, by the global tsunami warning centre, from the very start.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Cente 13.11.16 finding conformed with the actual known risk, as assessed by the local authority long-term:

Q-Files - Tsunamis extract Environment Canterbury p.8

Q-Files – Tsunamis extract, Environment Canterbury 2006, p.8

“If tsunami warning sirens sound, or you receive an official warning to evacuate, evacuate the coastal evacuation zones for your district.. You will have several hours to evacuate.. The most likely regional tsunami source for Pegasus Bay is the Hikurangi subduction zone fault, off the Wairarapa/Hawke’s Bay/East Coast coast.. A tsunami from this fault would likely take around 1-3 hours to reach Pegasus Bay. It is unlikely to be large here, but it may flood low lying areas around Sumner, the estuary and Lyttelton Harbour. Sea heights above sea level at the time here would probably be around 1-3 metres.. The chances of a local source tsunami being generated by an earthquake in Pegasus Bay are low and have not changed significantly as a result of the recent earthquakes. Scientists have discovered some earthquake faults on the sea floor in Pegasus Bay, but they appear to move very infrequently (once every few thousand or tens of thousands of years). They are not thought to be big enough, and therefore would not produce enough vertical (up and down) movement, to create a significant tsunami that would flood large amounts of land.. Tsunami sirens will be sounded for a distant source tsunami, where they are installed. If you hear the sirens, you must evacuate the tsunami evacuation zones for your district. You will have several hours to evacuate.”
http://ecan.govt.nz/advice/emergencies-and-hazard/tsunami/pages/default.aspx
http://ecan.govt.nz/publications/General/q-files-tsunamis-booklet.pdf from
http://ecan.govt.nz/advice/emergencies-and-hazard/Pages/booklets-q-files.aspx

Clearly officials panicked at seeing tide levels drop suddenly on 14.11.16, without knowing this was because of shoreline up-thrust. These officials then panicked others, and members of the public into leaving their homes unnecessarily, most ignorant of the actual low risk. The wrongly-imprinted hazard image – of a massively destructive high wall of water coming instantly ashore (like the Boxing Day 2004 Aceh, Indonesia or the March 2011 Sendai, Japan tsunami) – DOES NOT APPLY HERE. All this confusion should come out with the promised investigation of the 14.11.16 response. We live in hope, that it will be both a timely and productive investigation.[2]

The public should take from all this the lesson, to learn what actual tsunami risk exists for their home area and take appropriate precautions. Prepare appropriately and do not be panicked about imagined large tsunami risk in Canterbury ever again.

The difference is, the Alpine Fault is our tectonic plate impact zone – strong enough to build very high mountains (transform fault) – and this is the direct opposite kind of tectonic plate impact to that capable of producing tsunami (subduction fault). FACT. Fear not large tsunami here. Please do share and enlighten further.

The Civil Defence earthquake-tsunami mantra, “Long or strong, get gone” is not argued with here as potentially life-saving general education. But Christchurch’s experience of the 14.11.16 Waiau quake was ‘moderately long but not strong’ so it was not valid cause for fearful running from local shores or for official alarm-sounding. The alarm was therefore a misguided political act: to satisfy public expectations (of an alarm) incorrectly set. Let us work together now to repair this widely cast misconception of risk and relevant response.

nzmcdem-tsu

[1] Generosity of strangers wins out for Christchurch family burgled after quake http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/86419856/Generosity-of-strangers-wins-out-for-Christchurch-family-burgled-after-quake + Robbed Christchurch family to share proceeds with other quake victims
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86494324/Robbed-Christchurch-family-to-share-proceeds-with-other-quake-victims + More than 1000 donors give $40,000 to family burgled after tsunami evacuation http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/86473880/more-than-1000-donors-give-40000-to-family-burgled-after-tsunami-evacuation + ‘Vultures’ stole Christchurch father’s van as he prepared to evacuate family after quakes http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/86529225/vultures-stole-christchurch-fathers-van-as-he-prepared-to-evacuate-family-after-quakes + Thieves still at large after Christchurch earthquake evacuee homes burgled http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/86571543/thieves-still-at-large-after-christchurch-earthquake-evacuee-homes-burgled

[2] Tweet: “MCDEM ‏@NZcivildefence Nov 13 [UTC] People on the east coast (including the Chatham Islands) close to the epicentre can expect waves of 3-5 metres. Move to high ground #eqnz”
Earthquake: Deaths, major damage after severe 7.5 quake hits Hanmer Springs, tsunami warning issued “One person died at a property at Mt Lyford, north of Christchurch. The low-lying seaside suburb of Sumner was deserted after residents evacuated, and schools closed for the day. Lyttelton tunnel has been closed until further notice. A New Brighton family who evacuated their home after the quake returned to find their house ransacked by burglars. Matt Mill said they family-of-four had left their home about 2am, after the tsunami risk was broadcast. They returned to their Bower Ave home about 6.30am to find their home damaged, not from the shaking, nor any tsunami, but by burglars who took advantage of a suburb empty of people. Mill said the burglars stole televisions, sports gear and distressingly, a transmitter for his daughter’s hearing aid. His work truck was also stolen. Linwood resident Alice Coats said the tsunami sirens have been going went off intermittently for a couple of hours. The quake felt like a long wave, Coats said. ‘So, we all knew it was a big one.’ As soon as the tsunami warning came in, it was a little more frightening, so she jumped into her car with her flatmate, and went to the airport. Coats said the vagueness of the Civil Defence warnings were frustrating. Tsunami sirens started sounding along Christchurch’s coastline at 2.14am. A significant amount of traffic moved away from New Brighton and other coastal suburbs towards central Christchurch and the Port Hills. Police and Civil Defence have closed the tunnel (State Highway 74), which links Christchurch with the seaside suburb of Lyttelton. The tunnel has been closed temporarily for checks following previous large earthquakes. In the CBD, hotels and occupied buildings were evacuated.” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86416268/Earthquake-Deaths-major-damage-after-severe-7-5-quake-hits-Hanmer-Springs-tsunami-warning-issued 14 November 2016 +
Earthquake: Tsunamis hit, warnings downgraded “Several evacuation centres had been set up in the Waimakariri district, north of Christchurch. Welfare centres had been set up at the Woodend Community Centre, Rangiora Baptist Church, Oxford School Hall, and the Kaiapoi Rugby Club. Linwood College has been set up as a evacuation point for people who have left their home in Christchurch.. People living on low-lying ground within one kilometre of the Christchurch coastline had earlier been advised to evacuate inland or to higher ground as a precaution. Tsunami sirens activated at 2.14am in Christchurch’s coastal suburbs, more than an hour after the first tsunami warnings were issued by Civil Defence. The sirens, located from Brooklands to Taylors Mistake, were meant to sound for about 10 minutes to alert residents they could need to evacuate. A significant amount of traffic could be seen heading away from New Brighton and other coastal suburbs towards central Christchurch and the Port Hills. Early on Monday morning police were driving around the New Brighton area with flashing lights on” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86416653/cheviot-quake-tsunami-warnings-issued (oh-so-wrong?) MCDEM graphic:

Ministry graphic 141116

NZ Ministry of Civil Defence & Emergency Management graphic 141116 – ref. http://twitter.com/NZcivildefence

Coastal Christchurch residents criticise delay in tsunami warning system “A delay activating tsunami warning sirens could have been life-threatening to those living in Christchurch beach suburbs, residents say. Some are demanding answers as to why sirens did not sound until about 2am, two hours after the magnitude-7.5 earthquake struck and an hour after the national civil defence website instructed coastal residents to move to higher ground immediately. ‘Something needs to be done,’ New Brighton resident Shanna Howden said. If there had been a large wave, Howden questioned whether people could have escaped in time. Heavy traffic and bad roads meant it took 45 minutes for them to get out of New Brighton. ‘There must be a way to put something in place to make it a smoother process,’ she said. Tsunami warnings come from the Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management (MCDEM) in Wellington but local authorities are responsible for civil defence emergency management in their own areas. MCDEM posted its first tsunami warning on its website at 1am. The warning was repeated at 1.30am and not lifted until 3.39am. In Christchurch, the tsunami sirens began at 2am and sounded well beyond dawn. However, messages sent by the ministry to the duty officer at the Christchurch City Council and the Canterbury civil defence emergency management group were less clear. Christchurch mayor Lianne Dalziel said she was more interested in learning from the experience than casting blame. ‘I don’t know what went wrong but it’s important we fix this.’ Canterbury civil defence emergency group controller Neville Reilly said the council’s duty officer had relied on the group’s advice. The group’s decision to wait a couple of hours before firing the sirens was done in consultation with a tsunami scientist but without the knowledge that MCDEM was already instructing evacuation on its website. ‘It would have been nice if there wasn’t the confusion coming from emails which were different from the website,’ he said. ‘The worst thing you want to do is cry wolf although safety is paramount. There’s no black and white.’ MCDEM was unable to respond on Monday.” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86439726/coastal-christchurch-residents-criticise-delay-in-tsunami-warning-system 14 November 2016
Christchurch Star https://issuu.com/the.star/docs/116322cs 17 November 2016 (censored?)
Civil Defence overhaul ‘inevitable’ after tsunami warning confusion: Govt 17 November 2016 http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86441740/civil-defence-overhaul-inevitable-after-tsunami-warning-confusion-govt
GNS: Tsunami caught us by surprise http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318506/gns-tsunami-caught-us-by-surprise 20 November 2016 + Govt to push for tsumani text message system http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/318473/govt-to-push-for-tsumani-text-message-system
Civil Defence’s earthquake response to be reviewed http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318584/civil-defence’s-earthquake-response-to-be-reviewed 21 November 2016
Minister criticises GeoNet’s funding call http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318618/minister-criticises-geonet’s-funding-call 22 November 2016
Review of tsunami alerts likely after Kaikoura earthquake “All in all the response to the early morning Kaikoura earthquake seems to have been a bit of a shambles. Frightening for some and a non-event for others.. warning came out from National Civil Defence at 1.20am. Problems had hit the MCDEM website just after 1am with people advised to follow updates on their Facebook and Twitter instead.” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86742260/review-of-tsunami-alerts-likely-after-kaikoura-earthquake 24 November 2016 Comment:
“Straw Man – please decommission the Christchurch ones too. They caused unnecessary panic and are not even required. Many hours to evacuate in the case of a large tsunami, and not required for local quakes – there is no sub-duction zone off the ChCh coast. And yes, im aware of the 0.5m tsunami from the Kaikora EQ. It was not worth evacuating thousands of people. There was more risk of death or injury resulting from panicking drivers doing dumb things. Also, Pegasus bay does not funnel the swell into a confined space such as little pidgeon bay either. Start with a little education a[nd] ditch this ridiculous culture of fear that we have developed.”

etc

Watch 15 Years Of Earthquakes Rock The Planet
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/earthquake-animation-noaa-pacific-tsunami_us_58420f7ce4b0c68e0480f908? 2 December 2016

9 December 2016
Huge earthquake hits off Solomons, sparks tsunami warning for New Zealand “The earthquake triggered possible tsunami threats across the Pacific. Waves between one metre and 3m were possible along some coasts of the Solomon Islands, with waves from 30cm to 1m possible in Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu, the US Pacific Tsunami Warning Center predicted. A tsunami watch for New Zealand had been issued, but since cancelled by Civil Defence” http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/87378899/Huge-earthquake-hits-off-Solomons-sparks-tsunami-warning-for-New-ZealandLive: Huge earthquake strikes Solomon Islands http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/87379714/Live-Huge-earthquake-strikes-Solomon-IslandsInitial reports suggest ‘3000 people affected’ by earthquake off Solomon Islands “A tsunami watch for New Zealand had been issued, but since cancelled by Civil Defence. Civil Defence continued to advise people to stay out of the water owing to the threat of unusual currents, but said there was no threat to beaches and land. Earlier, Civil Defence controller Sarah Stewart-Black had told RNZ this was ‘not the same situation as after the Kaikoura earthquake’. The US Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said tsunami waves were forecast to be less than 30cm for New Zealand. They could take 4-5 hours to arrive, Civil Defence said. Waves between one metre and 3m were possible along some coasts of the Solomon Islands, with waves from 30cm to 1m possible in Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu, the US authority predicted” http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/87378899/81-magnitude-earthquake-hits-solomons–usgs + Magnitude 6.5 earthquake strikes off coast of Northern California “no tsunami warning, advisory or threat in effect following the earthquake”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/87378423/Magnitude-6-5-earthquake-strikes-off-coast-of-Northern-California

16 December 2016
Selwyn Tsunami evacuation plan
http://www.star.kiwi/2016/12/selwyn-tsunami-evacuation-areas/

20 December 2016
Tsunami evacuation plan kept under wraps “New Brighton residents are furious a tsunami evacuation plan for the area, which could have prevented the traffic chaos, was kept under wraps”
http://www.star.kiwi/2016/12/tsunami-evacuation-plan-kept-under-wraps/

21 December 2016
Coping with an increased risk of quakes “are we in the midst of a period of heightened risk?” asserts random dispersion, no pattern to recent large earthquakes: “The 7.8 Kaikoura quake was one of four earthquakes greater than Magnitude 7 in the last 7 years, and one of only five tremors of that magnitude or larger ever recorded in New Zealand. A similar period of increased activity was seen between 1929 and 1942 when New Zealand experienced a third of all earthquakes of magnitude 7 or larger recorded in the last 160 years..” http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/201828532/coping-with-an-increased-risk-of-quakes

25 December 2016
M 7.6 – ISLA CHILOE, LOS LAGOS, CHILE – 2016-12-25 14:22:26 UTC
http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=555101
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/tsunami_msgs/HEBTIBHWX.201612251632

26 December 2016
Book details Wheatsheaf flood after earthquake 1868 & 1960
http://www.star.kiwi/2016/12/book-details-wheatsheaf-flood-after-earthquake/

9 January 2017
Tsunami evacuation spurs action “Civil Defence will be boosted in Little River and Birdlings Flat after residents living near the sea had nowhere to evacuate to after the 7.8 magnitude earthquake on November 14”
http://www.star.kiwi/2017/01/tsunami-evacuation-spurs-action/

11 January 2017
Earthquake rattles Wellington and the upper South Island “hit at 1.19pm on Wednesday, jolting office workers across the capital” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/88313350/Earthquake-rattles-Wellington-and-the-upper-South-Island

12 January 2017
Water in Marlborough aquifers rises after 7.8-magnitude earthquake “gaps between the gravel that formed the aquifers had shrunk, causing wells to spill over.. too early to say whether the 7.8-magnitude quake had caused any permanent damage to the underground water network” http://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/88274851/water-in-marlborough-aquifers-rises-after-78magnitude-earthquake

[post under edit – return to read more later – thanks for viewing]

Changes to follow tsunami confusion in Christchurch 7 April 2017
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/91330663/changes-to-follow-tsunami-confusion-in-christchurch

Tsunami evacuations: What went wrong? 7 April 2017
http://www.star.kiwi/2017/04/tsunami-evacuations-what-went-wrong/

Plan to improve tsunami response released “staff, police and Mayor Lianne Dalziel were confused about conflicting messages between national and local Civil Defence” 12 August 2017
http://www.star.kiwi/2017/08/plan-to-improve-tsunami-response/

The real and major risk for mid-Canterbury is not coastal – Project AF8: http://projectaf8.co.nz/ – Alpine Fault Magnitude 8

GNS Science head office, like most New Zealand government, resides in Wellington region. There, existential angst competes heavily with Auckland for economic weight and centre of gravity. So Wellington treats the South Island as a private back yard – to be seen, not heard, exploited for all it is worth and insistently ignored and mis-spoken for. ‘It is all about us’, believes the capital, almost always. This hard-to-dislodge perspective explains constant nonsense from official sources over the 14-Nov-2016 magnitude-7.8 earthquake, particularly where it actually took place (and what it did). You would think GNS could not read a map or never travelled a secondary highway, to have located this earthquake as “Culverden”. They have a convention of approximating, to name larger centres that people may have heard of, only. This generalising is unhelpful. Locating the historically-large earthquake accurately is key to understanding it and its implications.

This was a “Wairau” earthquake, as the epicentre map shows – so why aren’t the authorities saying that? Why has this earthquake become about “Wellington” and “Kaikoura” exceptionally? Yes, people have sadly died or become most isolated in the latter town, and have our condolences and full support through that, with buildings lost at both places. But this is governance by spin: intentional confusion to deflect risk – to benefit who, we may ask? Tsunami alarm and quake interpretation questions abound – what is really happening? Where is it happening? Public discourse to be urgently joined. Lives depend on getting this very public knowledge correct.

Canterbury magnitude 5 to 7.8 EQs 13-21 Nov2016

Canterbury magnitude 5 to 7.8 earthquake and aftershocks, 13-21 November 2016 – http://quakesearch.geonet.org.nz

For comparison, Marlborough magnitude 5 to 6 earthquakes, 13-18 November 2016

For comparison, Marlborough magnitude 5 to 6 aftershocks, 13-21 November 2016 – much fewer and smaller

Canterbury 7.8-magnitude earthquake epicentre 141116

Canterbury 7.8-magnitude earthquake epicentre 14Nov2016 http://www.geonet.org.nz/quakes/region/newzealand/2016p858000

Journalists often muddy the water – Cheviot earthquake: Tracing the source of the 7.5 magnitude quake “It appeared to have been a complex earthquake, and scientists were looking into whether it ruptured two separate fault planes, or whether it could be considered just a single rupture. The epicentre of the quake was close to the Hope Fault. The Kaikoura area, where the Hope Fault went offshore, was strongly affected. Despite that, the pattern of events did not necessarily suggest a Hope Fault event, [GNS Science duty seismologist Dr Anna] Kaiser said. The Hope Fault was one of the major faults through Marlborough and North Canterbury that marked the boundary between the Pacific and Australian Plates. Those faults merged near Otira to form the Alpine Fault, which ran along the western edge of the Southern Alps. Looking back over hundreds of thousands of years, the Hope Fault was considered to have one of the highest slip rates among those faults. It was an important structure in accommodating plate movement in that part of the country, Kaiser said. ‘This earthquake occurred right along that line of very active deformation.’ The Marlborough fault system was a kind of transition zone between the Alpine Fault and the subduction interface between the tectonic plates under the North Island. ‘So far, it doesn’t look to be the Hope Fault, rather (and perhaps more concerning) it seems to have ruptured across the Hope Fault,’ USGS seismologist Professor Kevin Furlong said. ‘Most/many aftershocks extend to Cook Strait, implying that the rupture may have extended quite a bit to the north. One concern is whether this has involved any of the subduction plate boundary that starts up at Kaikoura and extends along the [east coast of the] North island. At a minimum, it may have changed the stress conditions on the main megathrust interface – we are exploring that possibility right now'” – deftly shifting the focus to Wellington.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86416880/cheviot-earthquake-tracing-the-source-of-the-quake 14 November 2016
Research https://www.gns.cri.nz/Home/News-and-Events/Media-Releases/Rutherford-Award 11 November 2016

Naming the river floodplains involved is extremely important as these often follow fault lines, in north Canterbury and Marlborough especially – a crucial point for understanding the moving landscape: what is moving, why and when. The Wairau event aftershock trace mostly identifies the Hope Fault, joining directly as it does the massive offshore-Kaikoura Hikurangi Trough (to the Alpine Fault). It is ultimately movement in this huge connected structure that we see affecting land. Seismic force and aftershocks moving in the direction of Wellington should not be confused with the substantive event, but they have been, influential as they are.

Canterbury aftershocks, 14-21 November 2016

Canterbury aftershocks, 14-21 November 2016 – http://quakesearch.geonet.org.nz/

Canterbury aftershocks, 14-21 November 2016

Canterbury aftershocks, 14-21 November 2016 – http://www.christchurchquakemap.co.nz/week

Canterbury aftershocks, 14-21 November 2016 - far view

Canterbury aftershocks, 14-21 November 2016 – http://www.christchurchquakemap.co.nz/week – far view

The zoom out illustrates two things: the offshore trench-fault that runs through land north of Kaikoura as the Hope Fault; that aftershocks are now reaching and accumulating stress along this at the Alpine Fault to the west.

GNS add to confusion – M7.8 Kaikoura quake the biggest since the Dusky Sound jolt in 2009 – 15/11/2016 “Named the Kaikoura earthquake, scientists are describing it as a complex rupture sequence that produced ground-shaking that lasted for about two minutes and was felt throughout the country. It was centered east of Hanmer Springs at a depth of 15km” https://www.gns.cri.nz/Home/News-and-Events/Media-Releases/M7.8-Kaikoura-quake 14 November 2016 – are they afraid of naming Waiau (and Hope)?

The focus is kept upon effects in the Wellington area – Seismologists record 2 metre shift south of Marlborough “The largest aftershocks were close to the Hope Fault, the line running across the centre of the map. The earth moved two metres to the north in Marlborough during Monday morning’s major earthquake, according to data from GNS Science.. the ground moved horizontally 2 metres to the north and vertically down a metre”

www.USGS.gov ground force map for 141116

http://www.USGS.gov ground force map for 141116

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86429681/seismologists-record-2-metre-shift-south-of-marlborough 14 November 2016 – local info presented may always be the best.

Sensational coverage becomes the fact: ‘Absolutely mind blowing’: Aerial photos ‘show seabed lift’ north of Kaikoura https://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/33218262/absolutely-mind-blowing-aerial-photos-show-seabed-lift-north-of-kaikoura/#page1 + Wellington Earthquake: If it struck at a different time, it could have been “much worse” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86453972/earthquake-if-it-struck-at-a-different-time-it-could-have-been-much-worse 15 November 2016

New Zealand’s Tectonic Dragon Awakens “beneath its verdant carpet, New Zealand is still under active construction. It occupies one of the most complex geologic venues on the globe, at the messy boundary of two tectonic plates.. violent, episodic upheavals that shake the seemingly tranquil hills” http://www.newyorker.com/tech/elements/new-zealands-tectonic-dragon-awakens 15 November 2016

Christchurch councils sends staff, resources to quake-hit Kaikoura https://ccc.govt.nz/the-council/newsline/show/1169 15 November 2016

GeoNet Kaikoura earthquake update: Magnitude revised http://info.geonet.org.nz/display/home/2016/11/16/Kaikoura+earthquake+update%3A+Magnitude+revised 16 November 2016 + ref. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/
M7.8 – 53km NNE of Amberley, New Zealand
2016-11-13 11:02:56 UTC 42.757°S 173.077°E 23.0 km depth
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us1000778i#executive +
Magnitude Mw 7.9
Region SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
Date time 2016-11-13 11:02:58.4 UTC
Location 42.69 S ; 172.97 E
Depth 10 km
http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=545040 7.9
http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=545057 6.4
http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=545073 6.1
http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=545103 6.2
+ http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/ (current)

While At quake’s epicentre, residents of Waiau watch helicopters destined for elsewhere “Waiau, population 280, is slowly returning to normality following the 7.8-magnitude earthquake that struck five kilometres away.. The town’s water supply has been restored but a separate feed to all rural properties was badly damaged and still broken. [Hamish] Dobbie said the council was working “really hard” to assist farmers who were running low on stock water. He hoped to have the water flowing in about a week. It has been a bitter pill to swallow for the community already struggling through a drought – a disaster within a disaster. Farmers near Waiau waved desperately at helicopters headed for Kaikoura, hoping they would stop.. It was hard not to feel forgotten as helicopters headed for Kaikoura, considering that Waiau was at the centre of it all. ‘I feel Waiau was a bit left out,” [Brenda] Smith said. ‘Even when it was first reported it was so many [kilometres] from Culverden, so many [kilometres] from Hanmer. I get it, we’re all hurting and Kaikoura is isolated … but yeah.'” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86594300/waiau-farmers-face-weeks-wait-for-water + Civil Defence overhaul ‘inevitable’ after tsunami warning confusion: Govt http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86441740/civil-defence-overhaul-inevitable-after-tsunami-warning-confusion-govt + Mayor thanks those involved in evacuation effort https://ccc.govt.nz/the-council/newsline/show/1186 17 November 2016

Quake sparked more movements in Marlborough faults than first thought http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/318248/quake-sparked-more-movements-in-marlborough-faults-than-first-thought 17 November 2016

“Scientists know a tide gauge at Kaikoura rose 90cm during Monday’s magnitude-7.8 earthquake, but that’s one of the few pieces of detailed data so far about how much the level of the coastline has risen. There is also information about land movement from a network of continuous GPS stations run by GeoNet and Linz showing a rise of around a metre at Cape Campbell, at the southern end of Clifford Bay. Data from the stations also show Cape Campbell moved horizontally northeast by 2-3 metres. ..Many anecdotal reports suggest a two-metre rise at the coast, and there’s even one report of a reef rising six metres”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86565581/finding-out-how-much-the-earth-moved-during-massive-earthquake 18 November 2016

Quake action formed Hanmer Springs but latest quake passed it by “The Hanmer Fault runs right through the township and is the noticeable rise you go up as you head north towards the pools. On the other side of the basin lies the Hope Fault, one of the major seismic features of the region which starts at the Alpine Fault near Inchbonnie on the West Coast and slices its way across North Canterbury before heading offshore just north of Kaikoura. It’s this eastern part of the Hope Fault that some scientists now believe could be at risk of rupturing if enough stress has been transferred on to it from Monday’s large quake.. GeoNet director Dr Ken Gledhill said the quake rupture took the path of least resistance northeastwards up the coast from close to Waiau where it began. ‘It’s kind of strange, it’s like the epicentre in this case is almost a meaningless concept.’ It’s where the action started but it must have started weakly and then slowly built up steam. So Hanmer just happened to be relatively close to where the epicentre, but not the real action, was. The real burst of energy that contributed to most of the magnitude was between Kaikoura and Cape Campbell. It raced up towards Cape Campbell and then it basically stopped.’ Fortunately, Cook Strait, with its offset faults, had acted like a barrier and halted the quake in its tracks, Gledhill said. It was the sudden deceleration which raised the coastal strip by up to 1 metre and shunted that part of the South Island 2m closer to Wellington, rather like a car braking sharply to a stop and the passengers being thrown suddenly up and forward. If you could create a big-enough map of the northern South Island and southern North Island you would be able to see how the islands have stretched, shrunk and otherwise changed shape since 12.02am on Monday. The quake moved Kaikoura about 1m further northeast and upwards 70 cm, and Hanmer Springs jumped east about 50 cm. Wellington and the Kapiti Coast are now 2 to 6cm further north, Christchurch and Banks Peninsula have shifted 2cm south and some parts of the West Coast are now 10cm closer to Canterbury than they were” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86554866/quake-action-formed-hanmer-springs-but-latest-quake-passed-it-by 18 November 2016

NIWA diverts ship to earthquake areas https://niwa.co.nz/news/niwa-diverts-ship-to-earthquake-areas 18 November 2016

CCC Coastal residents urged to have evacuation plan
https://ccc.govt.nz/the-council/newsline/show/1190

GNS Kaikoura shoreline movement, 14 Nov 2016

GNS Kaikoura shoreline movement, 14 Nov 2016

‘Startling’ rise of 5.5 metres in piece of coastline during Kaikoura earthquake confirms quake energy has spanned the Hope Fault – the Kekerengu Fault has just moved about 10 metres horizontally, or about half of its 20-25m known movement per 1,000 years. That much sudden, imminent movement is scarily awesome. Note the Hope Fault is near where shoreline rise has been the greatest, at 3-3.5 metres. http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86703833/startling-rise-of-55-metres-in-piece-of-coastline-during-kaikoura-earthquake 21 November 2016

Greedy, short-sighted economic actors are multipliers of natural risk. Korean charter flights pulled post earthquake – “The tourism industry and government agencies were also deliberately calling it the ‘Kaikoura earthquake’ because referring to north Canterbury gave the impression that Christchurch had been affected, when it had not”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/86604299/korean-charter-flights-pulled-post-earthquake 18 November 2016

We must remember, and anticipate, the main event.

And the Wellington earthquake – in the South Island – origins.

This 7.8 was exactly where I forecast and warned of, as next in the Canterbury earthquake sequence we are – if lucky, or god will it – living through.

More information: https://www.gns.cri.nz/Home/Our-Science/Natural-Hazards/Recent-Events/Kaikoura-Earthquake

RadioNZ
There was never a risk of a tsunami, says seismologist “We are way over-playing the size and the role of tsunamis. And this is happening in a lot of other places too, because unfortunately we are in a period of science where, to get funding, you have to scare the hell out of the public.” http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/318338/there-was-never-a-risk-of-a-tsunami,-says-seismologist 18 November 2016
Stories from the quakes Insight http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/insight/audio/201824385/insight-earthquake-surviving-7-point-8 19 November 2016
GNS: Tsunami caught us by surprise http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318506/gns-tsunami-caught-us-by-surprise +
Govt to push for tsumani text message system http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/318473/govt-to-push-for-tsumani-text-message-system 20 November 2016
Civil Defence’s earthquake response to be reviewed http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318584/civil-defence’s-earthquake-response-to-be-reviewed +
Crayfish and pāua fisheries shut down on quake-hit coast http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318599/’high-and-dry,-and-now-unfortunately-rotting’ +
Quake-hit Kaikōura still isolated by road http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318538/quake-hit-kaikoura-still-isolated-by-road 21 November 2016
Minister criticises GeoNet’s funding call http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318618/minister-criticises-geonet’s-funding-call 22 November 2016

21 November 2016
Morning, Nine to Noon on http://www.radionz.co.nz News, Dr Kelvin Berryman for GNS Science discusses 14.11.2016 mag-7.8 quake fault research results and questions at variance from USGS findings (no link readily available)

This evening’s television illustrated the overwhelming interest we all have in our own local geological hazards: TV1 Seven Sharp asked ‘Is the capital in the right place?’ (lost link?); while TV3 Story looked at new research modelling of an Auckland tsunami.

22 November 2016
Scientists detect huge fault rupture offshore from Kaikoura
https://niwa.co.nz/news/scientists-detect-huge-fault-rupture-offshore-from-kaikoura
Huge fault rupture stretches 34km offshore from Kaikoura http://www.stuff.co.nz/sunday-star-times/latest-edition/latest-news/86752499/Huge-fault-rupture-stretches-34km-offshore-from-Kaikoura

The best clear explanation, through animations, of how the 7.8-magnitude earthquake propagated and exactly which faults where did move the earth, though again generalising the start as “near Culverden”:
Watching the M7.8 Kaikoura Quake Dominos Fall in Real Time

GNS M7.8 Kaikoura Quake Dominos video 2

GNS M7.8 Kaikoura Quake Dominos video 2

http://info.geonet.org.nz/display/quake/2016/11/23/Watching+the+M7.8+Kaikoura+Quake+Dominos+Fall+in+Real+Time

Tremors rattle Hawke’s Bay as ‘silent earthquake’ shunts East Coast after 7.8 quake http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86715367/Tremors-rattle-Hawkes-Bay-as-silent-earthquake-shunts-East-Coast-after-7-8-quake

Magnitude-5.7 big aftershock that GNS generalises unhelpfully again as “Culverden” area, when it has badly affected Scargill township where a whole new quake sequence is located in their Hurunui River tributary valley. Far too vague! http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/318713/aftershock-damages-north-canterbury-homes
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86758316/Earthquake-Aftershocks-rumble-through-night-after-5-7-shake
This is what preceded the Scargill mag-5.7, by 1 minute and 23 seconds, a local foreshock of 4.8:

GNS screenshot 2016-11-22 Scargill 4.8-magnitude foreshock aftershock

GNS screenshot 2016-11-22 Scargill 4.8-magnitude foreshock aftershock

http://www.geonet.org.nz/quakes/region/newzealand/2016p881666 83 seconds before
http://www.geonet.org.nz/quakes/region/newzealand/2016p881669 magnitude-5.7 Scargill quake

23 November 2016
The Future of New Zealand’s Coastlines
“The massive uplift after the 7.8 magnitude quake has changed Kaikoura’s coastline significantly. With a new reef forming as the land moved up, by as much as six metres along the fault plain. But do we know what the future of New Zealand’s coastline will look like? Just-published tectonic research gives some insight into what sea levels could be in the future. And the satellitle observations show parts of New Zealand, are sinking at faster rates than others, and will be subjected to higher levels of future sea level rise. Co-author of the research is Professor Tim Stern, of Victoria University’s School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences.” – RadioNZ Afternoons 231116

Prof Tim Stern research RadioNZ 231116

Prof Tim Stern research RadioNZ 231116

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/afternoons/audio/201825015/the-future-of-new-zealand’s-coastlines

24 November 2016
Geonet ‘puzzled’ by aftershock sequence following the Kaikoura quake http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86813422/geonet-puzzled-by-aftershock-sequence-following-the-kaikoura-quake
West Coast Civil Defence retracts ‘large aftershock’ warning http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/west-coast-warned-to-prepare-for-possible-massive-aftershock-2016112418
https://www.westlanddc.govt.nz/update-west-coast-civil-defence
http://www.wcrc.govt.nz/our-services/civil-defence-emergency-management/Pages/
Rotorua Museum closed over quake-damage concerns http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318833/rotorua-museum-closed-over-quake-damage-concerns

25 November 2016
West Coast Civil Defence aftershock warning ‘irresponsible’ – Mayor http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/west-coast-civil-defence-aftershock-warning-irresponsible—mayor-2016112510
Large aftershocks a possibility, but there are no ‘urgent warnings’ http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86852615/large-aftershocks-a-possibility-but-there-are-no-urgent-warnings + Earthquake: Large aftershock urgent warning criticised “West Coast Civil Defence regional manager Chris Raine.. ‘an area in the Arthurs Pass just to the west of the divide is generating small earthquakes with several in the last few days that are being felt in Westland’.. [then CD chief] Stuart-Black said ‘Right from day one I’ve been saying that there is a likelihood that we would experience another large aftershock which could be as big as what we experienced just after midnight on 14th but could in fact be potentially larger’ http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86863920/earthquake-large-aftershock-urgent-warning-criticised
So no news is good news? – http://www.civildefence.govt.nz/resources/declared-states-of-emergency/ – where are the official media releases from MCDEM? See https://www.facebook.com/NzGetThru/posts/1237250506334040 etc + https://www.facebook.com/CanterburyEM/
CCC – “The local state of emergency that has been in place in Canterbury for the past week has been extended until November 29” – https://ccc.govt.nz/the-council/newsline/show/1187 + “Self evacuate – don’t wait for the tsunami sirens – if it’s long or strong, get gone” – https://ccc.govt.nz/services/civil-defence/what-to-do-in-an-emergency/tsunami/evacuating/
GeoNet M7.8 Kaikoura Quake: Future Scenarios and Aftershock Forecasts Update 25 Nov 2016 15.00
“Scenario Three: Extremely unlikely (<1% within the next 30 days)
A much less likely scenario than the previous two scenarios is that recent earthquake activity will trigger an earthquake larger than the M7.8 mainshock. This includes the possibility for an earthquake of greater than M8.0, which could be on the 'plate interface' (where the Pacific Plate meets the Australian Plate). Although it is still very unlikely, the chances of this occurring have increased since before the M7.8 earthquake." http://info.geonet.org.nz/display/quake/2016/11/14/M7.8+Kaikoura+Quake%3A+Future+Scenarios+and+Aftershock+Forecasts + Stress and the earthquakes http://info.geonet.org.nz/pages/viewpage.action?pageId=20545958

26 November 2016
Central New Zealand shaken awake by magnitude 4.6 Cook Strait earthquake http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86900233/Central-New-Zealand-shaken-awake-by-magnitude-4-6-earthquake
Updated: Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay slow-slip event now extends to include Kapiti and Manawatu regions following M7.8 Kaikoura Quake http://info.geonet.org.nz/display/quake/2016/11/21/Updated%3A+Gisborne+and+Hawke%27s+Bay+slow-slip+event+now+extends+to+include+Kapiti+and+Manawatu+regions+following+M7.8+Kaikoura+Quake

GNS slow-slip movements 26Nov2016

GNS slow-slip movements 26Nov2016

27 November 2016
‘Strong’ magnitude 4.8 quake rattles central New Zealand https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/strong-magnitude-4-8-quake-rattles-central-new-zealand

28 November 2016
Three sharp earthquakes rattle central NZ, jolts continue overnight http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86926530/Three-sharp-earthquakes-rattle-central-NZ-jolts-continue-overnight
Rotorua woken by 30m geyser eruption http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/rotorua-woken-by-30m-geyser-eruption-2016112810
‘The village is erupting!’ Water shot 30m into the air on Lake Rotorua, giving locals a fright https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/village-erupting-water-shot-30m-into-air-lake-rotorua-giving-locals-fright
Rotorua geyser erupts like a shaken bottle of fizzy drink http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/319092/geyser-erupts-like-a-shaken-bottle-of-fizzy-drink + Geyser eruption sends water 30m into the air http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/201825617/geyser-eruption-sends-water-30m-into-the-air
Geyser eruptions in Rotorua coincide with earthquake activity http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86935777/Geyser-eruptions-in-Rotorua-coincide-with-earthquake-activity
Kaikoura quake could be behind ‘silent earthquakes’ http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/319093/kaikoura-quake-could-be-behind-‘silent-earthquakes&#8217;
Slow-slip earthquakes detected in Kapiti and Manawatu, joining Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86927682/Slow-slip-earthquakes-detected-in-Kapiti-and-Manawatu-joining-Gisborne-and-Hawkes-Bay
Watch: Incredible new images from space show how Kaikoura’s earth jolted apart https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/watch-incredible-new-images-space-show-kaikouras-earth-jolted-apart?auto=5225981168001

29 November 2016
‘Unusual’ geothermal activity at Lake Rotorua – GNS
http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/unusual-geothermal-activity-at-lake-rotorua-2016112823
Are earthquakes and geyser eruptions related? ‘No, Taupo and Tarawera eruptions have a roughly 1,000 year return period, Auckland every 1-2,000 years..’
http://www.newshub.co.nz/tvshows/paulhenry/are-earthquakes-and-geyser-eruptions-related-2016112913
Scientists’ research trench slips nine metres in Kaikoura Earthquake http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/86972668/scientists-research-trench-slips-nine-metres-in-kaikoura-earthquake

30 November 2016
Another geyser erupts in Rotorua
http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/another-geyser-erupts-in-rotorua-2016113015
Weather might have caused second eruption in Rotorua http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/319291/weather-might-have-caused-second-eruption-in-rotorua

Become better prepared – https://happens.nz

USGS 141116 mag-7.8 shakemap - Waiau

USGS 141116 mag-7.8 shakemap – Waiau – http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us1000778i#map

This USGS shake-intensity map locates: a) the Pacific plate and Australian plate tectonic boundary; b) Wairau River as central to the mag-7.8 EQ fault action – confirmed (therefore USGS have this epicentre listed wrongly?)

Synchronicity with Alpine Fault movement is precise – “at least three past large earthquakes had occurred in the last 1250 years. These initial results confirmed that the Kekerengu Fault was capable of producing large earthquakes frequently (on average, about every 300 or 400 hundred years)” – how long delayed is the M7.8 Waiau flow-on effect, to an Alpine M8-9, being the only question. As in weeks, months, years or decades? … Further large stress input is not needed. – Kekerengu Fault has a Word to its Geologists http://info.geonet.org.nz/display/quake/2016/11/28/Kekerengu+Fault+has+a+Word+to+its+Geologists

1 December 2016
“Kēkerengū Fault.. in the last 1200 years.. this fault has ruptured three times – and now it’s the fourth time.. between 30 and 50 percent chance of having a great earthquake on the Alpine Fault in the next 50 years”
Fault unlocks new geological data
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/319319/fault-unlocks-new-geological-data
Warnings sounded over NZ’s Transport resilience http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/201826002/warnings-sounded-over-nz’s-transport-resilience
Giant underwater landslide in the Kaikōura Canyon http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ourchangingworld/audio/201825860/giant-underwater-landslide-in-the-kaik-ura-canyon
Slow slips could raise quake risk: GeoNet http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/slow-slips-could-raise-quake-risk-geonet-2016120117
“GNS volcanologist Brad Scott says the geyser was more likely due to weather than to seismic activity” Geyser erupts for second time in Lake Rotorua http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/201825984/geyser-erupts-for-secnd-time-in-lake-rotorua

2 December 2016
Lake Rotorua eruptions ‘not related’ to M7.8, say GNS.. despite its very long reach? :
Earthquake leaves Rotorua Museum closed ‘until further notice
http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/earthquake-leaves-rotorua-museum-closed-until-further-notice-2016120214

September 2015, one year ago: Rotorua geyser bursts into life after 35 years http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/201769992/rotorua-geyser-bursts-into-life-after-35-years + in sequence before that:
Seismic studies shed light on natural disaster risk “the build-up to an eruption from Auckland’s volcanos would be more accelerated than those for volcanos elsewhere” http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/59423/seismic-studies-shed-light-on-natural-disaster-risk 13 October 2010 [then 4.9.2010, 22.2.2011 etc Canterbury quakes..]
New lakes formed by Mt Tongariro’s eruption http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/112694/new-lakes-formed-by-mt-tongariro’s-eruption 8 August 2012
New crater blasted on White Island http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/regional/302697/new-crater-blasted-on-white-island 30 April 2016
Mt Ruapehu still shaking http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/303667/mt-ruapehu-still-shaking 12 May 2016
Scientists prepare for Lake Taupo eruption http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/regional/305214/scientists-prepare-for-lake-taupo-eruption 30 May 2016
+ Preceding the 14.11.2016 mag-7.8 was Hydrothermal activity in Lake Rotorua “A collaboration between the New Zealand Defence Force and GNS Science has picked up hydrothermal activity in Lake Rotorua.. ‘This work is the first step in a series of surveys that we hope will ultimately determine how much heat is being discharged through the lake floor from an underlying magma source, with the results feeding into our long-term hazards assessment of the area.’ The six-week survey ends next week. It covered about 40 percent of the lake floor.” http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/317947/hydrothermal-activity-in-lake-rotorua 12 November 2016

4 December 2016
Kaikōura’s new coast shown by NASA photos http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/319560/kaikoura’s-new-coast-shown-by-nasa-photos

7 December 2016
Nine faults ruptured in Kaikoura quake “but the Hope Fault barely moved.. there could be three segments to the Hope Fault, which moved about 10cm at Half Moon Bay.. GNS was in the process of building a map of the faults” http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/319798/nine-faults-ruptured-in-kaikoura-quake
10 faults known to have ruptured in Kaikoura quake, more likely “The quake started with the rupture of the Humps Fault Zone, near Culverden, [Dr Nicola Litchfield, head of the GNS Science active landscapes department].. said. That seemed to have triggered the next fault along, which had triggered the next one and so on all the way to the Needles Fault – the offshore continuation of the Kekerengu Fault. ‘The movement in each of those [faults] was big enough it triggered the next to go in the same earthquake,’ she said. The faults that went must have been ready to go. The large Hope Fault hadn’t ruptured. “Basically it jumped over the Hope Fault and didn’t rupture that except for a tiny bit at the coast,” Litchfield said. ‘In this area there are a lot of faults. The thing is before this earthquake we didn’t think so many were going to rupture in one earthquake. I guess that’s the big surprise.’ It was unlikely the combination of faults in the Kaikoura earthquake would be repeated. The Kekerengu Fault went every 300-400 years. In contrast, it wasn’t known how often the faults at the south of the rupture zone went, but it was thought to be thousands, or tens of thousands of years between ruptures.”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/87292211/10-faults-known-to-have-ruptured-in-kaikoura-quake-more-likely

9 December 2016
Central NZ tsunami risk may be higher due to undiscovered offshore faults “GNS Science geophysicist Dr William Power said the 14 November tremor provided an ‘interesting puzzle’ in terms of where the tsunami was generated.. the tsunami might have reached 4 metres in some areas of the Kaikoura coast. However, the fact the quake struck close to low tide and that the land was uplifted at the same time reduced the extent of inundation. ‘A better understanding of the fault movements offshore in the Kaikoura earthquake will help us better evaluate the tsunami risks in central New Zealand.'”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/87301480/central-nz-tsunami-risk-may-be-higher-due-to-undiscovered-offshore-faults

15 December 2016
Restrictions on building along Alpine Fault in Franz Josef scrapped
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/87604696/restrictions-on-building-along-alpine-fault-in-franz-josef-scrapped

16 December 2016
Scientists find evidence the Earth’s crust ripped apart to create a 7km deep abyss off Banda, Indonesia http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/87647721/scientists-find-evidence-the-earths-crust-ripped-apart-to-create-a-7km-deep-abyss

[post under edit – return to read more later – thanks for viewing]

M7.8 Kaikoura quake the biggest since the Dusky Sound jolt in 2009 – 15/11/2016
https://www.gns.cri.nz/Home/News-and-Events/Media-Releases/M7.8-Kaikoura-quake

Canterbury Earthquake Research Programme 2012-15 “In Budget 2011, Government made available to the Platform $12M GST ex for studies that addressed the impacts of the Canterbury earthquakes and lessons that could be applied to other centres” – So why stop there? …
https://www.naturalhazards.org.nz/NHRP/Publications/Establishment-Strategy/Canterbury-EQ-Programme

NZ moving to ‘period of more earthquakes’ 15 November 2016
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/318095/nz-moving-to-‘period-of-more-earthquakes&#8217;

The Mountains Moved 00.02 14.11.2016
https://assets.stuff.co.nz/interactives/special-features/the-mountains-moved/index.html

Quake claims top $900m “New Zealand businesses have lodged more than $900 million in insurance claims since the Kaikōura earthquake”
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/business/323574/quake-claims-top-$900m

Did November’s 7.8 shake create a ‘quake lake’ in the Tararuas? 20 March 2017
http://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/90608086/Did-Novembers-7-8-shake-create-a-quake-lake-in-the-Tararuas

Large earthquake risk remains high “15 percent likelihood of a magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake striking New Zealand in the next month” 20 March 2017
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/327036/large-earthquake-risk-remains-high

Quake-hit residents fear insurance woes 24 March 2017
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/327322/quake-hit-residents-fear-insurance-woes

Major earthquake could split Wellington region into ‘seven islands’ 24 March 2017
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/90790889/Major-earthquake-could-split-Wellington-region-into-seven-islands

Kaikoura earthquake moved the South Island, new research shows 24 March 2017
http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/90769048/kaikoura-earthquake-moved-the-south-island-new-research-shows

Kaikōura quake moved South Island 5 metres 24 March 2017
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/327328/kaikoura-quake-moved-south-island-5-metres

Extreme heat detected beneath the Southern Alps “New Zealand scientists drilling into the Alpine Fault on the West Coast have found much higher temperatures than expected – which as well as being scientifically exciting could also be commercially very significant for New Zealand. They’ve drilled nearly 900 metres into the Alpine Fault at Whataroa – finding geothermal conditions comparable with Taupo, but there are no volcanoes in Westland. Kathryn Ryan talks to Victoria University’s John Townend” RNZ 18 May 2017
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/201844259/extreme-heat-detected-beneath-the-southern-alps

Whataroa Valley research site, Victoria University

Whataroa Valley research site at Alpine Fault – Victoria University supplied pic, May 2017


+ The sleeping dragon: Researchers find blazing heat beneath the Southern Alps The Press http://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/92669729/the-sleeping-dragon-researchers-find-blazing-heat-beneath-the-southern-alps

Noting a return of readers to my blog today, probably looking for New Zealand earthquake analysis, I will rattle this post off quickly, as a catch-up on a previously strong theme to my writing. Then I will take a good long walk to relax. As should we all.

Having accurately forecast, to within 50 minutes, a magnitude 4.7 Christchurch earthquake yesterday, what are my afterthoughts about this? Under-earth events continue for the country and are detailed here: #Masterton‬ mag 5.2 ‪#‎eqnz‬ this morning is not alone..”[1] (Read research at footnote link). The title is only more fitting, a month to the day since it was written, when there have been two 5.2 magnitude earthquakes, this new morning. (Ironically, says the Moon Man?)

Stunning, really. Awesome Earth!

But what is the big picture, if I am asked?

Well, it’s not good. Not for New Zealand, one of the newest land masses and nations on the planet – it is likely to have to start again. In our lifetime? It seems / I would say, perhaps yes. Because a 330-year Alpine Fault cycle is sitting at year 299, approximately.

The tectonic motion we have begun to experience as a constant factor of the post-colonial state has the capacity to practically destroy it. In my opinion. A catastrophe so large is built into this land, Aotearoa – Land of the Long White [volcanic] Cloud – that it will surely cripple us one day. Soon? Hard to say. Why? It looks like this:

Current south-east/central North Island quakes are signs that the Australian Plate it is on is moving, a little bit more. When it finally gets going properly it will be a huge leap south-east, and this will spread the central plateau / Kermadec Arc enough for the Taupo super-volcano to explode again. That will obliterate the central North Island and disable both Auckland and Wellington.

What will initiate this calamity, however, will be almost as bad for the South Island  – a magnitude 8+ slippage of the Alpine Fault, disabling Christchurch and the then-isolated West Coast. This (long-term) ‘regular’ event constitutes the letting-off of the not-quite slow-moving tectonic brake, that is the Southern Alps, that keeps this geological system ‘stable’. A relative term. Long calm will resettle again, after many many large and small aftershocks.

Will Otago-Southland be left standing to pull us through? Let us hope so.

There is no way we can recover from this imminent (in our lifetime?) surety without massive international support and massive sacrifice of sovereignty.

Let us prepare for that transitional step now. However we are best able to.

But it may be that the next magnitude 8+ Alpine Fault earthquake does not release Taupo super-volcano.[2]  Let us hope so. ‘Not yet please.’  We are not ready. …

Is the Taupo volcano on a 5, 6 or 7 Alpine Fault-slip cycle? Some decade on from now, all New Zealand will be discovering this, as-yet hidden fact, together. It will be our darkest hour. Human spirit will pull through.

Kia kaha. Kia ora. Waimarie.

[1] facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10209826325001836&set=a.1294734535479.2045005.1443783772&type=3

[2] “1800 years ago Taupo volcano in New Zealand had the largest volcanic eruption in the world for the last 5000 years.” sott.net/article/249473-Is-The-Super-Volcano-Taupo-in-New-Zealand-Awakening and see wikipedia.org/wiki/Taupo_Volcano “The main pyroclastic flow devastated the surrounding area, climbing over 1500 metres (5000 ft) to overtop the nearby Kaimanawa Ranges and Mount Tongariro, and covering the land within 80 kilometres (50 mi) with ignimbrite from Rotorua to Waiouru. Only Ruapehu was high enough to divert the flow.”

“Possibility of further eruptions on White Island remains high” 10 May 2016 m.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11636672

“Mt Ruapehu still shaking” – top closed to public radionz.co.nz/news/national/303667/mt-ruapehu-still-shaking

“Aggressive 4.7 Christchurch shake centred close to February 22, 2011 earthquake”  stuff.co.nz/national/79890087/earthquake-rattles-christchurch and five hours later a “‘Strong’ earthquake shakes lower North Island” stuff.co.nz/national/79892918/Strong-earthquake-shakes-lower-North-Island 12 May 2016 – graphic, GeoNet.org.nz/quakes/drums:

120516b-NSN-drums-Masterton4.7-5.2

Update 30/5/2016

Scientists prepare for Lake Taupo eruption

“A team of researchers is studying the volcano so better response plans can be put in place in case of a large eruption. The Earthquake Commission said damage from the last time the volcano erupted – almost 1800 years ago – would be large enough to destroy the central North Island…”
radionz.co.nz/news/regional/305214/scientists-prepare-for-lake-taupo-eruption

Understand that the Taupo Volcanic Zone, stretching from Mount Ruapehu to north of White Island, marks the southern pin of the broad Kermadec Arc and basin, a massive slow-spreading rift in the Earth that forever thins its crust. From this steady motion – eastwards, of the Australian Plate – re-eruption of Taupo Volcano is inevitable. It isn’t the centre of the North Island for no reason – it explains why the island is above water. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taupo_Volcanic_Zone

Subduction Zone diagram

Subduction Zone diagram

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lau_Basin + Graphic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Back-arc_basin

The 5th most explosive volcano event known to human scientific records:
Name: Whakamaru
Zone: Taupo Volcanic Zone
Location: New Zealand, North Island
Notes: Whakamaru Ignimbrite/Mount Curl Tephra
Years ago (approx.): 340,000
Ejecta bulk volume (approx.): 2,000 km³
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supervolcano#VEI_8

Later, “Earth’s most recent eruption reaching VEI-8, the highest level on the Volcanic Explosivity Index” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taupo_Volcanic_Zone

“The Ōruanui eruption (about 26,500 years ago) covered much of the central North Island with ignimbrite, up to 200 metres deep. Ash fallout was spread by the wind over the entire North Island, much of the South Island, and a large area east of New Zealand, including the Chatham Islands. About 1,200 cubic kilometres of pumice and ash were rapidly ejected. This caused a large area of land to collapse, forming the caldera basin now filled by Lake Taupō.”

…”Big bang – The Ōruanui eruption was so enormous that it is hard to visualise. In only a few days or weeks it ejected enough material to construct three Ruapehu-sized cones. After the eruption, the new lake gradually filled to a level 140 metres above the present lake. The lake broke out to the north, resulting in a huge flood. For several thousand years the Waikato River flowed northwards into the Hauraki Gulf, but it later changed its course to flow through the Hamilton lowlands to the Tasman sea.”

Then, …”Taupō eruption – The most recent major eruption of Taupō volcano took place in late summer–early autumn around 200 AD, from vents near Horomatangi Reefs (now submerged). The eruption produced a towering ash column, resulting in tephra-fall deposits over a wide area from Hamilton to Gisborne. The airfall deposits were much thicker to the east of Taupō because the eruption column was blown in that direction by strong westerly winds. The eruption column was followed by a devastating pyroclastic flow, blanketing a roughly circular area within 80 kilometres of Lake Taupō with ignimbrite, and destroying all life in its path. The ground-hugging pyroclastic flow appears to be one of the most powerful ever recorded, and was able to overtop Mt Tongariro and the Kaimanawa mountains, climbing 1,500 metres in a matter of minutes. The outlet of Lake Taupō was again blocked during the eruption, and the lake level rose to 34 metres above its present height, forming a widespread terrace. The lake eventually broke out in a huge flood whose effects can be traced for over 200 kilometres downstream, and include boulder beds and buried forests.”
http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/volcanoes/page-5

That is, the same most recent was, the ‘Hatepe eruption’: “considered New Zealand’s largest eruption during the last 20,000 years.. ejected some 120 km3 (29 cu mi).. of which 30 km3 (7.2 cu mi) was ejected in the space of a few minutes. This makes it one of the most violent eruptions [on Earth] in the last 5000 years.. Tsunami deposits of the same age have been found on the central New Zealand coast, evidence that the eruption caused local tsunamis” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hatepe_eruption

“Radiocarbon dating indicates an uneven spacing of Taupo’s eruptions, from decades to thousands of years apart. This makes it difficult to forecast when the next eruption will occur and how big it will be.” http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/volcanoes/page-5

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php#supv

http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake

Update 4/6/2016
“Magma chamber blamed for Bay of Plenty earthquake swarm.. study found the previously unrecognised magma body caused several thousand small earthquakes between 2004 and 2011.. expansion of the molten rock chamber approximately 9km below Matata has pushed up 400 square kilometres of land by 40cm.. something was accumulating at a depth of around 9.5 to 10km beneath the Earth’s surface.. The magma body could have been there for centuries or more.. The area was a ‘rift zone’ where over time the crust had been stretched and thinned – but it was not clear whether the crust was already thin, or the magma made it thin. ‘It is probably a thinner crust than the average you’d find elsewhere.. But what happens is as you stretch the crust and the hot rocks beneath come to a shallower depth, as they become shallower they get less pressure, which actually then enables them to melt and become magma. That magma, because it’s less buoyant than the surrounding rock, it then wants to percolate up through [into the crust]'”, RNZ – radionz.co.nz/news/national/305592/magma-buildup-blamed-for-quakes & Science Advances article, “results suggest that the continued growth of a large magmatic body may represent the birth of a new magma chamber on the margins of a back-arc rift system” – advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/6/e1600288.full
“A huge deposit of magma has been detected just 9km below a small North Island town – and scientists say it may be causing earthquakes. Matata is nestled between Tauranga and Opotiki, and new research using satellite image, GPS data and surveying has revealed the molten secret. The level of the town has been steadily rising over the last few years – up to 10mm per year of uplift, but it is now beginning to slow to about four-five millimetres per year. Scientists are confident there will not be an eruption in the near future, but say they will continue to monitor the magma field”, TV1 – tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/huge-field-molten-magma-found-under-north-island-town
“Rising magma to blame for swarm of quakes”, TV3 – newshub.co.nz/nznews/rising-magma-to-blame-for-swarm-of-quakes-2016060400
“Volcano status and notifications come to the GeoNet app – With the flurry of volcano activity last month, we’re pleased to add some new features to the GeoNet app so you can keep an eye on them, too”, GNS 30May2016 –
info.geonet.org.nz/display/appdata/2016/05/30/Volcano+status+and+notifications+come+to+the+GeoNet+app

Update 17/6/2016

Lake Tarawera water warning, 10 Jan 2015 – “People are being warned not to drink water from Lake Tarawera or swim in it after locals noticed the water was discoloured. It was reported to the Bay of Plenty Regional Council yesterday by Hot Water Beach residents. The council says geothermal activity could be to blame for the water’s white, milky appearance. Samples have been taken to test for the presence of algal blooms. The results are not due back until next week.”
http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/lake-tarawera-water-warning-2015011012

Lake Tarawera tests positive for algae, 15 Jan 2015 – “Lake Tarawera has tested positive for potentially toxic blue-green algae, but a health warning will not be issued. The confirmation comes after samples were taken from the lake last week, as well as Te Rata Bay near Hot Water Beach. The lake is at ‘amber alert’, meaning the situation will continue to be monitored. ‘The blue-green algae identified are potentially toxic but the levels of algae are below health guidelines,’ says Bay of Plenty Regional Council science manager Rob Donald. ‘We recommend that people do not swim in the water if it is discoloured.’ Blue-green algae only recently arrived in New Zealand, but has already taken its place in lakes throughout the North Island. It causes water to appear green and cloudy, and sometimes green specks will be visible.”
http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/lake-tarawera-tests-positive-for-algae-2015011517

Mt Tarawera vent erupts after 35-year slumber, 17 Jun 2016 – “One of the geothermal vents in Mt Tarawera’s Raupo Pond Crater came alive for the first time in 35 years last month, according to GeoNet. The Mud Rift feature — a 6m-wide, 36m-long, 15m-deep vent formed in 1906 that has been lying dormant since 1981 — was activated sometime between May 17 and 20 this year. A blog on the GeoNet website suggests the eruption was a fleeting event, and involved fluids flooding into the vent and causing ‘stress and browning off’ of surrounding plants. It says the eruption was mainly steam-driven, and involved plenty of water, creating what has been likened to a ‘muddy geyser’.”
newshub.co.nz/nznews/mt-tarawera-vent-erupts-after-35-year-slumber-2016061716

Update 27/7/2016
It appears this blog post has been read and authorities are now responding:
stuff.co.nz/national/82524357/team-granted-funding-to-plan-response-for-alpine-fault-megaquake

– Noting that a Megaquake could hit central New Zealand, Stuff 19 May 2015, motivating research like Simulation of a Magnitude 8.4 Megathrust Quake in New Zealand, GNS Science youtube, 12 November 2015

Stuff graphic - "Megaquake could hit central New Zealand" - 19 May 2015

Stuff graphic – “Megaquake could hit central New Zealand” – 19 May 2015

Occupy Christchurch: In Our Own Words

Occupy Christchurch, Information, Oct-2011

Occupy Christchurch, Information, October 2011

A lot of excellent oral history work by Byron Clark is soon to add to the written record of the late-2011-to-early-2012 Occupy movement moment in New Zealand. The content progress can be followed and listened to here: archive.org/details/OccupyChristchurch

Transcript for Kindle available online here:
goodreads.com/book/show/29745296-occupy-chirstchurch-in-our-own-words

Watch for a publication date here:
amazon.com/Occupy-Christchurch-Our-Own-Words-ebook/dp/B01DMEOV5U

Well done OChch and Byron! Thank you for all your efforts.

Here’s the project website: occupychristchurch.nz

I will next write a blog post inspired by reflection upon the collective Occupy Christchurch experience, as now expressed through Byron’s work. The aim is for this to become an informed philosophical and practical talk, to also be presented soon. We look forward to the book launch!

Kia ora. Kia kaha. Ka kite ano.

Update 6May16
Occupy ref. “Noam Chomsky on the death of the American Dream
Famed scholar, activist and political theorist Noam Chomsky talks frankly to Nine to Noon’s Katherine Ryan about politics, society and his new film, ‘Requiem for the American Dream’. Filmed over five years, the 87 year old unpacks the US policies of the past half-century which have lead to an unprecedented concentration of power in the hands of the select few. The documentary gets its New Zealand premiere at this years Documentary Edge International Film Festival It screens in Wellington today and on Sunday and in Auckland on Tuesday May 24th and Saturday May 28th.” radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/201799712/noam-chomsky-on-the-death-of-the-american-dream

Protest Is Broken’: Co-Creator of Occupy Wall Street Calls for New Mental Shift occupy.com/article/protest-broken-co-creator-occupy-wall-street-calls-new-mental-shift  “Occupy.. was a ‘constructive failure’” 2 July 2015 “..the main trigger for the next revolutionary movement will be a contagious mood that spreads throughout the world and the human community. For me, the main thing we need to see is activists abandoning a materialistic explanation of revolution – the idea that we need to put people in the streets – and starting to think about how to spread that kind of mood, how to make people see the world in fundamentally different way. That’s about it. The future of activism is not about pressing our politicians through synchronized public spectacles.. In the long run, it is much better to develop nonviolent tactics that allow you to create a stable and lasting social movement” – re new book:  The End of Protest: A New Playbook for Revolution by Micah White micahmwhite.com/the-end-of-protest-micah-white-phd 15 March 2016

Barrington petition news: RepReview appeals due 211215

Barrington petition news: RepReview objections and appeals due 21-Dec-2015

The proposal to increase Christchurch councillor numbers and manipulation of city hall shows why the fake-left are held so far from government, by democracy. If there aren’t enough councillors to fill committees – created by the dominant Christchurch administration bloc – what price more?

Devastation of the residential community grid, is what. Ward boundaries at random places that divide suburban communities of interest internally, and from long-held associations with neighbours, is what. For citizens to get their community organisations running they will be challenged by divided representation, in this skewed future. From 13 councillors currently, 16 are proposed. Would 14 be enough? If you think so you may like to join the petition to that effect.

What is fake about this proposed ‘left’ reform of a council is that it posits three added representative officials (on $100k salaries) as necessary ‘improvement’ of local democracy, while shattering the neighbourhood tapestry of suburban communities defined within wards to get there. The cost is to the communities and the gain is to the elected officials.

The fake Left of Christchurch says the end justifies the means, that more (Labour) councillors (on $99,200 salaries) is what our city needs, whatever the cost to struggling communities. Community unity – to decide and lobby for their interests – must be placed first, for which 14 councillors is an adequate increase. But Labour do not want to hear this or from the source.

Representation Review appeals and objections are due by Monday 21 December 2015, by 4pm. Take a look at the proposed 16-ward map, to see how your community would be affected, and have your say: http://www.ccc.govt.nz/repreview
Share: http://www.facebook.com/events/752932178145017/

More info: https://riktindall.wordpress.com/2015/11/30/christchurch-city-mauls-core-communities-addington-sydenham-waltham-linwood-richmond-stalbans-in-boundary-review-ccc-repreview-petition-chch-nz/

Petition: https://riktindall.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/ccc-repreview-submission-petition-dec-2015-barrington-issues-group.pdf

Kia ora. Kia kaha, Otautahi

Barrington Issues Group petition news - Southern View, 30 Nov 2015, p.3

Barrington Issues Group petition – Southern View, 30 Nov 2015, p.3

A petition has started to defend historic Christchurch communities with boundaries under attack in the city’s representation review. Council proposes a new Central ward taking area from Addington, Sydenham, Waltham, Linwood, Richmond and St Albans, breaking up these communities of interest across multiple wards. Akaroa-Wairewa community board is merged as a minority into Lyttelton-Mount Herbert in the proposal. The petition opposing 2016 destruction of social history and community cohesion – so important for post-earthquake city recovery – is here:
CCC RepReview submission petition Dec 2015

The proposed new Christchurch ward areas look like this:

Christchurch City proposed ward boundaries 2016

Christchurch City proposed ward boundaries 2016

Submissions are open until 4pm on Monday 21 December 2015, with details here: http://www.ccc.govt.nz/repreview

News extract from: Southern View, 30 Nov 2015 http://starnews.co.nz/jump.php?link=http://issuu.com/The.Star/docs/115334ob page 3

BIG-MediaRelease2-petition-031215 = http://bit.ly/1Twu4hd

Spreydon-Heathcote, Christchurch city ward base, now abolished

Spreydon-Heathcote, Christchurch city ward base recently abolished: to be replaced in 2016

It’s official: the Spreydon-Heathcote electoral ward of Christchurch city is no more. It was abolished on Thursday, 13 August 2015, as were all the Christchurch wards laid out before 2004.[1] That’s a good thing, and moment for nostalgia. A memorial to the Heathcote County Council (ex Road Board) that got merged into Christchurch City Council in 1989, the ward name caused confusion: a) the Heathcote Valley was part of Hagley-Ferrymead ward, not Spreydon-Heathcote, and b) the Heathcote/Opawaho River spanned three city wards, including the above two, so could not rightly be claimed by any of them. Confusing! Remedy at hand.

From one ward, two would now be made. The possibilities around renaming are significant, and will be decided by several influences in the lead-up to the 2016 local elections. The new community board name will last at least the next 3-6 years and probably longer. It affects how our local communities can organise themselves, for diverse beneficial outcomes, within accurate boundaries to be settled in the months ahead. This is important.

So what are the choices? Spreydon-Cashmere(-Woolston) if the 16-ward model about to be consulted upon gains support, or Spreydon-Beckenham if the 14-ward model revives, as best improvement upon the seven wards that just got abolished. Get involved and ‪#‎HaveYourSay‬ from 26 August to 9 October, 2015.[2]

Congratulations are due this council either way. A bold step of making representation more direct to local communities, more locally elected, is within reach. This is a product of dividing seven large wards into a larger number of smaller wards, where each turns out about half the current size (except Banks Peninsula). All wards would reduce from having two councillors to having one, in future (like Banks Peninsula). Of all the concessions to be gained from the Local Government Commission, as changes to the city ward system, this could be the second-most-challenging. The first would be total increase in councillor number, beyond a modest one, to three in the 16-ward proposal. The proposal, to be released by Council on Wednesday 26 August, for us looks like this:

Spreydon-Cashmere-Woolston ward proposal, 26 August 2015

Spreydon-Cashmere-Woolston community board proposal, 26 August 2015

The proposal is to be commended for resolving the primary problem Spreydon-Heathcote ward had with its boundaries: division of Waltham, where part had been in Hagley-Ferrymead ward. At last, Waltham will be united through its representation! That’s a big step forward. But the same fundamental principle needs to be applied to all the new ward map – division of communities is mostly unnecessary and quite unacceptable. For this reason the 14-ward model is better, for creating fewer community divisions, and none once refined, as seen here:

14 ward model, draft Spreydon-Beckenham community board area

14 ward model, draft Spreydon-Beckenham community board area

It is a simple choice, in fact, over where electoral improvements should be made – in and for communities, or for the councillors? That we are being confronted with possibility of the latter (16 councillors) shows that a legal obligation to consult has been inappropriately hijacked for political ends – to meet a council process objective. The cost in this council expansion planswould be one whole community board scrapped, to increase representative weight at the top end. Is this acceptable? There’s a war on between communities and politicians, over who owns democracy, in the Christchurch Representation Review: stop poli-inflation!

Christchurch electors need to look hard at their representation map and voice an opinion over what will work best for them. Because this voice is the only element that can satisfactorily decide the review questions. #‎HaveYourSay‬ from Wednesday!

[1] Graphic – Chch South Library’s future unknown, The Press 10/08/2012,
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/7452318/Chch-South-Librarys-future-unknown +
3.3 “That the current wards and communities be abolished.” – p.240, http://resources.ccc.govt.nz/files/TheCouncil/meetingsminutes/agendas/2015/August/Council13August2015OpenAgenda.pdf

[2] http://www.ccc.govt.nz/the-council/have-your-say/whats-happening-now/representative-review/

The Spreydon-Heathcote ward just abolished:

Spreydon-Heathcote ward map

Spreydon-Heathcote ward map

References:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heathcote_County

Along the Hills: A History of the Heathcote Road Board and the Heathcote County Council, 1864-1989 James Watson, Christchurch 1989, https://christchurch.bibliocommons.com/item/show/68121037

Heathcote County Council – Archives New Zealand, Christchurch Regional Office,
http://thecommunityarchive.org.nz/node/71357

https://riktindall.wordpress.com/2015/08/02/ccc-do-the-job-properly-christchurch-city-council-representation-review-chch-repreview-newzealand-nzlabour-nz/

The Christchurch local representation map is being redrawn, per six-yearly requirement, ahead of the 2016 elections. This provides opportunity to strengthen communities – or to strengthen politicians – as significant change is unavoidable in complex circumstances. But left to their own devices, which do you think some politicians are endeavouring to do? That’s right. The obvious: a strengthening of power within their grasp.

Public pressure – DEMOCRACY – is required to make Christchurch politicians see sense. Naturally.

Where 55% polled have already said they want no change at all, this is not an option: the Banks Peninsula anomaly/gerrymander (feat Sir Bob Parker) has to end, central government has ruled, and because earthquake red-zoning has moved so many households westward that they have to be recounted. So would politicians propose the nearest amendment possible to no change at all, that people want, of minimised change that improves balance effectively? Of course not. That is why, in August-Sept 2015, you should HAVE YOUR SAY on the CCC Representation Review.[1]

To recap, this is what the Christchurch public has already said on this matter [2]:

CCC Rep Review Press poll 210715

CCC Rep Review Press poll 210715

The public do not want the community board system undermined. In fact, to do so would conflict with the current mayor’s stated purpose of strengthening communities and the delegated abilities of community boards. Against this, one third of those polled support a Labour-aligned councillor and board chair-led initiative to multiply total councillors to 16 (in whose interests?) A still higher proposal of 19 councillors has already been rejected, as has an amendment for reduction to below the current 13; but 19 is still being lobbied for hard, regardless.[3]

The 16-ward system proposed, that will go out for consultation later this month, redraws the community board map as serious dilution. The gain would be three extra councillors to what we have now, with community boards having to cover about 14% more territory each, because one (Hagley-Ferrymead) would be lost entirely. That is a direct challenge to the closer focus that resident communities now have, and would retain under a 14-ward system (two wards per board instead of the three being proposed).

The 14-ward system drafted is much better for local communities, does bring one extra councillor to the table, and each councillor will represent a much smaller number of people. This is the gain and the loss in the inevitable redraw of the Christchurch political map: where residents have two councillor representatives currently, except Banks Peninsula, in future they will have only one, like Banks Peninsula. Performance competition within each urban ward is going to be removed, after the local elections next year, thus (and is this actually good?) So getting the representation ratio down still further if possible – as 14 wards achieves – is very important; though the 14 ward boundaries drafted still need minor refinement – HAVE YOUR SAY on this later this month.

Here are the 14- and 16-ward maps and board areas for comparison, from the council agenda [4]:

CCC 14-ward draft 23Jul15

CCC 14-ward draft 23Jul15


CCC 14-ward draft Community Board areas 23Jul15

CCC 14-ward draft Community Board areas 23Jul15


CCC 16-ward proposal 23Jul15

CCC 16-ward proposal 23Jul15


CCC 16-ward Community Board areas 23Jul15

CCC 16-ward Community Board areas proposed 23Jul15

You can see how addition on one new ward per community board is going to increase competition for board attention by 50% (increased board area). You can watch streamed video of how the 16-ward proposal got decided.[5]

Morally there is cause for the new, 14th seat to be elected from the Maaori electoral roll, proportionally; but mana whenua, Kai/Ngai Tahu runanga is opposed. Process-wise, bureaucratically it is too late to be debating this aspect now; it is a critical consideration for the six-year period ahead. Towards a 15th seat in 2019 or 2022? …

To summarise: the 2015/16 CCC Representation Review provides excellent opportunity to strengthen communities, by clarifying suburban/rural area maps for community cohesion and collective voice. But the review process has been hijacked by politicians of one political stripe, trying to strengthen themselves in number – at the expense of community cohesion – illegitimately. Communities must strengthen themselves and push back to ensure resident say is not further reduced in prescribed city mapping transition.

Council, please do what is right. The Local Government Commission has authority to reject your 16-ward proposal, if it is unwarranted, unsubstantiated or poorly researched, and they have done so before – last time 16 wards were proposed here. Do not leave Christchurch with no democracy-plan iron in the fire by proposing something unreasonable on our behalf. Debacle lays ahead if you do.

Kia ora. Kia kaha Otautahi!

[1] http://www.ccc.govt.nz/the-council/have-your-say/whats-happening-now/representative-review/
[2] http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/70361468/christchurch-city-council-mulls-options-for-size-change
[3] http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/70417628/city-councillors-favour-upsizing
[4] http://www3.ccc.govt.nz/thecouncil/meetingsminutes/agendas/2015/July/ see agenda of 23 July 2015.
[5] http://councillive.ccc.govt.nz/tag/agenda-item/representation-review-2014-15

Update 5 Aug:
As Christchurch youth say, ‘the communities should govern’:

C.C.Council signs off its 2016 representation proposal next Thursday, 13 Aug, and will notify it Weds 26 Aug. Public submissions on the representation review close on Friday 9 Oct. Prepare to defend and enhance community voice! http://www.ccc.govt.nz/the-council/news-and-public-notices/council-selects-new-ward-option-for-public-consultation/ See 13 Aug agenda here: http://www3.ccc.govt.nz/thecouncil/meetingsminutes/agendas/2015/August/index.aspx

Current ward/board area population sizes range from 47.7k to 65.5k approx, with the Banks Peninsula exception of 8.2k – see http://www.ccc.govt.nz/the-council/how-the-council-works/council-wards/ 2013 Boundary maps: Google maps overview of all Christchurch wards https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=zQ_JdJhdRN14.kHXUed_Xsj74

This critical range of community board representation numbers would change to:
16-ward model: between 63.5k & 66.1k + 19.8k (higher, makes representation worse, to increase councillors)
14-ward model: between 45.5k & 71.9k + 22.0k (lower/better balanced once refinement properly completed)

An ambition-laden, cost-saving proposal, the 16-ward model about to be released is a very clear attempt to shift decision-making power out of communities and into the council chamber. Where it increases community board areas by 50% and the councillor number on them by 50%, it increases the community board member number by just 20%. Is that what communities want, and is it fair?

It looks like council abandoned development of the 14-ward model, to leave it distorted and out of contention? A substandard effort here: finish the job and do it right please!

Use http://www.mashblock.co.nz to find boundary fixes, and read http://www.cashmere.org.nz/news/Cashmere-News-Diary-12Aug2015.html for why.

Dry dry dry

Ye desolate land

Where farmers flounder

And as politicians filch

To scratch a way

Through nature’s limit

Where there is none

To be found

Under ground

Over burden

Aquifers empty

Rivers a ruin

Thy cows do curse us

Dry dry dry

New Zealand drought

Irrigation storage depleted - just-food.com pic

Irrigation storage depleted – just-food.com pic

Graphic: “Global Risk Perception Survey of 900 experts rated water crises as the ‘greatest risk’ facing the world” http://www.just-food.com/comment/new-zealand-drought-could-hit-dairy-sector_id128857.aspx New Zealand drought could hit dairy sector, 16 January 2015
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Opuha Dam Feb2015 pic - Stuff

Opuha Dam, Feb 2015 pic – Stuff

Graphic: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/66084122/drought-declared-for-larges-swathes-of-south-island Drought declared for larges swathes of South Island, 12 February 2015

References:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/news/10713427/Opuha-near-low-record Opuha near low record, Concern at dropping lake level, 7 Nov 2014

Flounder invasion hits Caroline Bay http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/flounder-invasion-hits-caroline-bay-2015012318 23 Jan 2015 + “a ‘boom year’ for flounder.. the best flounder season in the past 21 years” http://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/65287871/Couple-face-fines-for-huge-flounder-catch Couple face fines for huge flounder catch, 22 Jan 2015

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/265927/drought-declared-in-south-island Drought declared in South Island, 12 February 2015

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/rural/266040/opuha-dam-to-stop-all-irrigation Opuha dam to stop all irrigation, 13 February 2015

https://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/information-and-resources/drought

http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/climate

Last year was Earth’s hottest on record, U.S. scientists say http://www.trust.org/item/20150116194647-nykz3 Reuters, 16 Jan 2015

Kern River, California - No Diving irony

Kern River, California – No Diving irony

Graphic: “An estimated $1.2bn (£790m) in maize, soy and wheat crops may be at risk in US states where competition with industrial water users, especially fracking, is high” http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2015/feb/10/us-food-oil-gas-water-shortages US harvest threatened by water-intensive oil and gas boom, 10 Feb 2015

http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_27419553/driest-january-history-bay-area-swings-from-boom Driest January in history: Bay Area swings from boom to bust after wettest December

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/02/12/science/ap-us-sci-worse-droughts.html Study Sees Even Bigger Longer Droughts for Much of US West, 12 Feb 2015

http://drought.unl.edu/DroughtBasics/DustBowl/DroughtintheDustBowlYears.aspx

Starved for Energy, Pakistan Braces for a Water Crisis http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/13/world/asia/pakistan-braces-for-major-water-shortages.html 12 Feb 2015