Category: Kaiapoi

Noting a return of readers to my blog today, probably looking for New Zealand earthquake analysis, I will rattle this post off quickly, as a catch-up on a previously strong theme to my writing. Then I will take a good long walk to relax. As should we all.

Having accurately forecast, to within 50 minutes, a magnitude 4.7 Christchurch earthquake yesterday, what are my afterthoughts about this? Under-earth events continue for the country and are detailed here: #Masterton‬ mag 5.2 ‪#‎eqnz‬ this morning is not alone..”[1] (Read research at footnote link). The title is only more fitting, a month to the day since it was written, when there have been two 5.2 magnitude earthquakes, this new morning. (Ironically, says the Moon Man?)

Stunning, really. Awesome Earth!

But what is the big picture, if I am asked?

Well, it’s not good. Not for New Zealand, one of the newest land masses and nations on the planet – it is likely to have to start again. In our lifetime? It seems / I would say, perhaps yes. Because a 330-year Alpine Fault cycle is sitting at year 299, approximately.

The tectonic motion we have begun to experience as a constant factor of the post-colonial state has the capacity to practically destroy it. In my opinion. A catastrophe so large is built into this land, Aotearoa – Land of the Long White [volcanic] Cloud – that it will surely cripple us one day. Soon? Hard to say. Why? It looks like this:

Current south-east/central North Island quakes are signs that the Australian Plate it is on is moving, a little bit more. When it finally gets going properly it will be a huge leap south-east, and this will spread the central plateau / Kermadec Arc enough for the Taupo super-volcano to explode again. That will obliterate the central North Island and disable both Auckland and Wellington.

What will initiate this calamity, however, will be almost as bad for the South Island  – a magnitude 8+ slippage of the Alpine Fault, disabling Christchurch and the then-isolated West Coast. This (long-term) ‘regular’ event constitutes the letting-off of the not-quite slow-moving tectonic brake, that is the Southern Alps, that keeps this geological system ‘stable’. A relative term. Long calm will resettle again, after many many large and small aftershocks.

Will Otago-Southland be left standing to pull us through? Let us hope so.

There is no way we can recover from this imminent (in our lifetime?) surety without massive international support and massive sacrifice of sovereignty.

Let us prepare for that transitional step now. However we are best able to.

But it may be that the next magnitude 8+ Alpine Fault earthquake does not release Taupo super-volcano.[2]  Let us hope so. ‘Not yet please.’  We are not ready. …

Is the Taupo volcano on a 5, 6 or 7 Alpine Fault-slip cycle? Some decade on from now, all New Zealand will be discovering this, as-yet hidden fact, together. It will be our darkest hour. Human spirit will pull through.

Kia kaha. Kia ora. Waimarie.


[2] “1800 years ago Taupo volcano in New Zealand had the largest volcanic eruption in the world for the last 5000 years.” and see “The main pyroclastic flow devastated the surrounding area, climbing over 1500 metres (5000 ft) to overtop the nearby Kaimanawa Ranges and Mount Tongariro, and covering the land within 80 kilometres (50 mi) with ignimbrite from Rotorua to Waiouru. Only Ruapehu was high enough to divert the flow.”

“Possibility of further eruptions on White Island remains high” 10 May 2016

“Mt Ruapehu still shaking” – top closed to public

“Aggressive 4.7 Christchurch shake centred close to February 22, 2011 earthquake” and five hours later a “‘Strong’ earthquake shakes lower North Island” 12 May 2016 – graphic,


Update 30/5/2016

Scientists prepare for Lake Taupo eruption

“A team of researchers is studying the volcano so better response plans can be put in place in case of a large eruption. The Earthquake Commission said damage from the last time the volcano erupted – almost 1800 years ago – would be large enough to destroy the central North Island…”

Understand that the Taupo Volcanic Zone, stretching from Mount Ruapehu to north of White Island, marks the southern pin of the broad Kermadec Arc and basin, a massive slow-spreading rift in the Earth that forever thins its crust. From this steady motion – eastwards, of the Australian Plate – re-eruption of Taupo Volcano is inevitable. It isn’t the centre of the North Island for no reason – it explains why the island is above water.

Subduction Zone diagram

Subduction Zone diagram + Graphic:

The 5th most explosive volcano event known to human scientific records:
Name: Whakamaru
Zone: Taupo Volcanic Zone
Location: New Zealand, North Island
Notes: Whakamaru Ignimbrite/Mount Curl Tephra
Years ago (approx.): 340,000
Ejecta bulk volume (approx.): 2,000 km³

Later, “Earth’s most recent eruption reaching VEI-8, the highest level on the Volcanic Explosivity Index”

“The Ōruanui eruption (about 26,500 years ago) covered much of the central North Island with ignimbrite, up to 200 metres deep. Ash fallout was spread by the wind over the entire North Island, much of the South Island, and a large area east of New Zealand, including the Chatham Islands. About 1,200 cubic kilometres of pumice and ash were rapidly ejected. This caused a large area of land to collapse, forming the caldera basin now filled by Lake Taupō.”

…”Big bang – The Ōruanui eruption was so enormous that it is hard to visualise. In only a few days or weeks it ejected enough material to construct three Ruapehu-sized cones. After the eruption, the new lake gradually filled to a level 140 metres above the present lake. The lake broke out to the north, resulting in a huge flood. For several thousand years the Waikato River flowed northwards into the Hauraki Gulf, but it later changed its course to flow through the Hamilton lowlands to the Tasman sea.”

Then, …”Taupō eruption – The most recent major eruption of Taupō volcano took place in late summer–early autumn around 200 AD, from vents near Horomatangi Reefs (now submerged). The eruption produced a towering ash column, resulting in tephra-fall deposits over a wide area from Hamilton to Gisborne. The airfall deposits were much thicker to the east of Taupō because the eruption column was blown in that direction by strong westerly winds. The eruption column was followed by a devastating pyroclastic flow, blanketing a roughly circular area within 80 kilometres of Lake Taupō with ignimbrite, and destroying all life in its path. The ground-hugging pyroclastic flow appears to be one of the most powerful ever recorded, and was able to overtop Mt Tongariro and the Kaimanawa mountains, climbing 1,500 metres in a matter of minutes. The outlet of Lake Taupō was again blocked during the eruption, and the lake level rose to 34 metres above its present height, forming a widespread terrace. The lake eventually broke out in a huge flood whose effects can be traced for over 200 kilometres downstream, and include boulder beds and buried forests.”

That is, the same most recent was, the ‘Hatepe eruption’: “considered New Zealand’s largest eruption during the last 20,000 years.. ejected some 120 km3 (29 cu mi).. of which 30 km3 (7.2 cu mi) was ejected in the space of a few minutes. This makes it one of the most violent eruptions [on Earth] in the last 5000 years.. Tsunami deposits of the same age have been found on the central New Zealand coast, evidence that the eruption caused local tsunamis”

“Radiocarbon dating indicates an uneven spacing of Taupo’s eruptions, from decades to thousands of years apart. This makes it difficult to forecast when the next eruption will occur and how big it will be.”

Update 4/6/2016
“Magma chamber blamed for Bay of Plenty earthquake swarm.. study found the previously unrecognised magma body caused several thousand small earthquakes between 2004 and 2011.. expansion of the molten rock chamber approximately 9km below Matata has pushed up 400 square kilometres of land by 40cm.. something was accumulating at a depth of around 9.5 to 10km beneath the Earth’s surface.. The magma body could have been there for centuries or more.. The area was a ‘rift zone’ where over time the crust had been stretched and thinned – but it was not clear whether the crust was already thin, or the magma made it thin. ‘It is probably a thinner crust than the average you’d find elsewhere.. But what happens is as you stretch the crust and the hot rocks beneath come to a shallower depth, as they become shallower they get less pressure, which actually then enables them to melt and become magma. That magma, because it’s less buoyant than the surrounding rock, it then wants to percolate up through [into the crust]'”, RNZ – & Science Advances article, “results suggest that the continued growth of a large magmatic body may represent the birth of a new magma chamber on the margins of a back-arc rift system” –
“A huge deposit of magma has been detected just 9km below a small North Island town – and scientists say it may be causing earthquakes. Matata is nestled between Tauranga and Opotiki, and new research using satellite image, GPS data and surveying has revealed the molten secret. The level of the town has been steadily rising over the last few years – up to 10mm per year of uplift, but it is now beginning to slow to about four-five millimetres per year. Scientists are confident there will not be an eruption in the near future, but say they will continue to monitor the magma field”, TV1 –
“Rising magma to blame for swarm of quakes”, TV3 –
“Volcano status and notifications come to the GeoNet app – With the flurry of volcano activity last month, we’re pleased to add some new features to the GeoNet app so you can keep an eye on them, too”, GNS 30May2016 –

Update 17/6/2016

Lake Tarawera water warning, 10 Jan 2015 – “People are being warned not to drink water from Lake Tarawera or swim in it after locals noticed the water was discoloured. It was reported to the Bay of Plenty Regional Council yesterday by Hot Water Beach residents. The council says geothermal activity could be to blame for the water’s white, milky appearance. Samples have been taken to test for the presence of algal blooms. The results are not due back until next week.”

Lake Tarawera tests positive for algae, 15 Jan 2015 – “Lake Tarawera has tested positive for potentially toxic blue-green algae, but a health warning will not be issued. The confirmation comes after samples were taken from the lake last week, as well as Te Rata Bay near Hot Water Beach. The lake is at ‘amber alert’, meaning the situation will continue to be monitored. ‘The blue-green algae identified are potentially toxic but the levels of algae are below health guidelines,’ says Bay of Plenty Regional Council science manager Rob Donald. ‘We recommend that people do not swim in the water if it is discoloured.’ Blue-green algae only recently arrived in New Zealand, but has already taken its place in lakes throughout the North Island. It causes water to appear green and cloudy, and sometimes green specks will be visible.”

Mt Tarawera vent erupts after 35-year slumber, 17 Jun 2016 – “One of the geothermal vents in Mt Tarawera’s Raupo Pond Crater came alive for the first time in 35 years last month, according to GeoNet. The Mud Rift feature — a 6m-wide, 36m-long, 15m-deep vent formed in 1906 that has been lying dormant since 1981 — was activated sometime between May 17 and 20 this year. A blog on the GeoNet website suggests the eruption was a fleeting event, and involved fluids flooding into the vent and causing ‘stress and browning off’ of surrounding plants. It says the eruption was mainly steam-driven, and involved plenty of water, creating what has been likened to a ‘muddy geyser’.”

Update 27/7/2016
It appears this blog post has been read and authorities are now responding:

– Noting that a Megaquake could hit central New Zealand, Stuff 19 May 2015, motivating research like Simulation of a Magnitude 8.4 Megathrust Quake in New Zealand, GNS Science youtube, 12 November 2015

Stuff graphic - "Megaquake could hit central New Zealand" - 19 May 2015

Stuff graphic – “Megaquake could hit central New Zealand” – 19 May 2015

New Zealand housing must be uncoupled, from the investment market needed by creative industry, to become a consumer durable: steady transition, through new government and policy reducing cost, over time.

A combination of approaches are required to freeze and stabilise home values, at their current level, without bursting the housing bubble – which inevitably would happen of its own accord. We must address the top, bottom and middle the of the housing inflation spectrum, at the same time.

The pair of policies I recommend would be capital gains tax upon the over-investors and flooding the affordable housing market from below, through smart mass production and land access technique.

And in case you haven’t noticed, the 2014 general elections have shaped up as Auckland and Christchurch policy needs versus the capital’s, on many points, and the latter cannot win this year.

N.B. These are the personal policy perspectives from an hopeful, and not official policy.

Vikram Kumar – Change and the Internet

Other party housing policies so far:
“State housing: We would fight for a radical increase in the number of state houses being built to ensure adequate supply of quality affordable housing, appropriate to people’s needs. This must be a universal entitlement rather than targeted at those with extreme needs.

We would establish a publicly owned and controlled housing construction agency employing builders and apprentices to build State houses, and to modernise and insulate existing State houses.

Capital gains taxes and rent controls. We would not allow property investors to offset losses against taxes, as well as benefiting from untaxed capital gains. At the same time, we would introduce rent controls and stronger tenancy protection to prevent exploitation of the the poor.

Assist local bodies: Councils and other agencies aiming to provide pensioner flats and other social housing would be assisted by loans at below market interest rates, but only if rents are set at less than 25% of household income; no more sales of Council housing.” etc.

“Housing is a social good and a basic right.
No one should be prevented from establishing a decent home because of low income.
All people should have secure tenure of appropriate housing.
Housing developments should optimise land use, reduce car use and be built to sustainable building principles.
Energy-saving and resource-conserving technologies must be promoted for all buildings.” etc. Statements outlining thinking
“Put 100,000 Kiwi families into their first home through KiwiBuild.
Restrict the ability of non-residents to purchase New Zealand houses.
Require landlords to ensure every rental house in New Zealand is warm and dry.
Create new jobs, 2,000 apprenticeships and give a $2 billion boost to the economy through KiwiBuild.
Introduce a capital gains tax to take pressure off house prices.
Introduce a National Policy Statement to ensure Councils are more likely to approve projects involving affordable housing.”

Done to by repeated earthquakes, storms and flood since 2010, threatened Christchurch home owners must avoid becoming political footballs in 2014, now. The silly season of public discourse is upon us, with the lack of real choice in general elections.

Already we have seen the pointless, predictable lurch between non-solutions twice: legal synthetic cannabis was made illegal with no means of transition for its victims; and our city council’s consultant’s report on its finances will next be matched by the Earthquake Minister’s – why didn’t the Mayor just save rate and tax payers this profligate expense? We already knew the parlous situation we are working through so why add to it by overpaying ‘experts’ just to state the obvious? For argument’s sake? As of today we’re being sold the pretend choice of who will be delivering tax cuts, from fake Beehive budget surplus, come September.

Descent into ‘he said, she said’ along National-Labour lines does not help struggling Christchurch and Canterbury one bit. With central and local government arguing over who must respond to the recent flood losses and realisations, affected communities must just get on with it.

Council’s Flooding Taskforce report is a good start in a concentrated timeframe, if only for highlighting what must follow it.[1] Immediate, simple steps are identified but mostly it’s the mapping that helps us.

District Plan change forecasts for 100-year sea level rise, in the range of climate change symptoms, were released updated in March. Already Christchurch is having to adapt to significant aqueous effects. This is our loud wake-up call.

Working against centralised solutions is the sheer scale of the problem. But now at least we can see it plain:

Christchurch Flooding Map 2014 - CCC Taskforce

Christchurch Flooding Map 2014 – CCC Taskforce

Since the earthquakes, communities have pulled together to get through each crisis. Now moving forward means getting more organised.

The Christchurch City Council’s Flooding Taskforce was a good start but now needs breaking down into manageable chunks and catchments. Each particular area needs to initiate its own flood taskforce – Dudley Creek / Flockton, Lower Avon, Southshore, Sumner, Heathcote Valley, Woolston and Lower Heathcote, Upper Heathcote (or Heathcote-Opawaho as a very large whole), Lyttelton, Little River, Akaroa, Kaiapoi, etc. Invite the authorities to advise your local area taskforce, once it is set up. Start with your own stretch of street and look towards contributing to catchment management, in the long term.

Communities must take this initiative for a number of reasons: you are best placed to respond to the next natural event; central resources are inadequate and stretched far too thin; discuss and decide what remedies you collectively judge appropriate for your area – river dredging, bank widening and embankment, floor raising, section walling or buy-out, etc. – because this locally agreed message is what the authorities need to hear; gain detailed knowledge of street property effects together but protect the values and information – supply the authorities with accurate statistics only, through your own elected spokespeople; “information is power” – your power, it is said.

The severe limitation of Mayor Dalziel’s report, in summary: “The extreme rainfall event on 4/5 March 2014 was not regular flooding and requires longer term solutions. It was therefore considered outside the scope of the Taskforce.”[3] And no spend for Southshore.

Locally, get your picture and voice crystal clear. Then it can be expressed most usefully to the powers that be, for action.

In the meantime, if there’s flooding tomorrow and you need help dealing with it, call Council on 941-8999 or lodge a Service Request online.[4] But do start talking to your neighbours about urgent response today.[5]

Update 22 May 2014:
Flood victims told they need to resolve problems themselves (3′ 10″) RadioNZ Morning Report
“At the first of the Christchurch City Council’s community meetings to look at flooding issues, residents on the Banks Peninsula have been told it is up to them to solve their own problems.”[6]



[3] p.6. @ first draft:




More: “sold up, cashed up and ready to go.. a functioning metropolitan city will arise again too late.. We, and what was, are over.. The floods this year are finishing off hope amongst the wounded of our city.” – Greg Jackson 02/05/2014 04/05/2014 “Mayor Lianne Dalziel said that one option being considered was buying out properties in flood-affected areas.. It’s clear people want to stay.. if they can” 05/05/2014 10/05/2014 + 12/05/2014 13/05/2014 Port Hills rockfall risks 17/05/2014 “the problem seems to be even worse than the council understood” Press Editorial 19/05/2014 21/05/2014

As Christchurch and Canterbury remembers the pain and our losses, the trauma of three years’ devastation of our local community, we find fitting means to FIGHT BACK!

040913 - Colombo St sign - The Press

040913 – Colombo Street sign – The Press

This is hard. This is difficult. But we have the love: the memories of our cherished people, homes and city lost. We carry the injuries. We will never forget.

Communities are holding on as best they can, stripped of support, e.g.

This year we can do something different, and build the most fitting memorial, through a renewed city council, to those just like us who can no longer speak for themselves. Help the grieving find JUSTICE here:

Take the city leaders of September 4th, 2010 – who said ‘she’ll be right, mate’ – to task. They were wrong; very wrong. They reopened Christchurch for business as usual – instead of cordoning dangerous buildings for proper safety inspections with remediation – and 185 paid the price with their lives. Many more were injured; all of us were scarred for life.

Mayor Bob Parker is moving on, but do not let his protege Paul Lonsdale take over. Do not increase the human and administrative disaster here any further! We need civil defence against the crass, uneducated business-minded, who care for profit, yet little for human life and well-being. Make them see sense.

In 2013, VOTE People First!

040913 - Colombo St sign - The Press

040913 – Colombo St sign – The Press

NZ Fire Service & USAR, Christchurch, Feb 2011

NZ Fire Service, with heavy machinery and their Urban Search And Rescue (Usar) arm, at work on the CTV building in Christchurch from 22 February 2011 – graphic: ABC News re CTV investigation, December 2012. [1]

When the worst – not the best – is made of a bad situation, the buck stops there: those in authority do pay the political price of mismanaged responsibility. So it must be for the New Zealand Prime Minister of 4 September 2010 (the day of the magnitude 7.1 Canterbury earthquake) and its aftermath, and for the PM’s colleagues. Where many died, all could have lived – but for official neglect.

The dire warning that September 4th sounded – miraculously at no loss of life – should have been seriously heeded. But NZ PM ‘smile-and-wave’ John Key took no special action, except to second Christchurch Mayor Bob Parker’s haste for return to “business as usual” in the retail city. The greedy foolishness of that approach was brusquely scotched by nature, when the “Boxing Day quake” aftershock stopped the much-vaunted downtown sales that late December day.[2]

If only these two mis-leaders had been stopped there, 185 more people could have lived through the 22 February 2011 disaster to follow, through proper building inspections and essential cordons. City retail leadership is still the same though, hogging headlines at the expense of sound civil defence, just as they drew shoppers beneath lethal parapets and into faulty structures that February too. No accountability so far, no break from the PM’s dangerously narrow policy.

Yet deadly warning had been received, in the form of the Pike River Mine disaster on 19 November 2010, with 29 West Coast fatalities. Methane problems in the uphill mine (pocket) could well have been exacerbated by the September quake, at the same latitude approximately, yet no remedial action was enforced or taken. Political and corporate negligence continue, at the mining families’ expense. They still wait for adequate justice.[3]

But justice is denied, under an elite-orientated, autocratic New Zealand government in service to private interest. The hearing into CTV’s building disaster bore this immorality out.

Coroner Gordon Matenga, in his findings and much-publicised criticism of the NZ Fire Service response of 22 February 2011, got it wrong. Why? Few explanations exist: only two. The first would be that this judge is bent, to the venal, corrupt practise of John Key’s administration. But that remains to be proven, leaving just one other possible cause of flawed findings: that Matenga received deficient information. This we know to be the case, and places responsibility at the Prime Minister’s door. So, how was the CTV evidence flawed, and why?[4]

Missing from the CTV inquiry was the civil defence view, the element of accountability in public control, that had been obstructed on 22 February 2011 too. This is the management whose absence undermined coordination of the emergency response, whose role was to reinforce the Fire Service and Police responses – which resides with the regional council – that failed. John Key’s removal of local public authority at Environment Canterbury (ECan), on 30 April 2010 – for financial investment purposes – is thus the reason for the tragic debacle at CTV. How did this play out?

Where Matenga found fault in the NZ Fire Service for “the way rescue teams worked together”, this was unjust and incorrect – they lacked the government back-up they are entitled to. For example, a central North Island Usar team cried out via news reports for transport to Christchurch, but had to wait in line. What were the obstacles to efficient rescue there? Regional coordination of military resources was the agency in the system to guarantee an airforce flight, until John Key stopped that capacity. Who else did response governance?

In fatal emergencies, Police gain authority over an emergency scene – as they did at Pike River and is (fire) tragedy practise here and across the Tasman. So why didn’t Police act in the civil emergency of 22 February 2011, to claim management over the CTV tragedy and lead any more effective rescue possible, as their evidence states? Because the decision-making body over them, for directing them to that purpose – ECan Civil Defence and Emergency Management (CDEM) – had been disabled by John Key, Nick Smith, David Carter, Bill English, Peter Dunne, the Maaori Party, et. al.

As repeated at the inquest, no one had the Fire Service’s back on 22 February 2011. It was Police duty there, but no one had their back either. And hence the confused breakdown of command, abortive rescue attempts, and probably additional fatalities – all due to John Key’s meddling in essential public services, to benefit select industry. But he did not act alone. Every Canterbury mayor of 2009 – especially Bob Parker – helped bring this raised civil disaster about. Parker’s unschooled ambition was an ECan CDEM disabler too. For that, for the subsequent lives lost in February 2011, he must pay a price. Voters will no doubt respond. After all, it is their relatives and friends, their overseas guests, who have already paid with their lives, injury and hurt.

The fact that Waimakariri District was involved at Kaiapoi, extending the emergency beyond Christchurch City Council boundaries on 22 February 2011, is what classified this as a regional emergency to which ECan CDEM had to respond, to escalate the logistical resource. Parker’s interference and falsely-assumed leadership of emergency response – covered up by Key’s lifting events (with no alternative left) to national emergency status, wrongly – is what made the CTV response slow, disorganised, and probably a bigger fatal disaster. That we all mourn, and must learn from. We owe it to everyone lost.

Kia kaha.

[1] NZ report finds several flaws in killer quake building + Design behind New Zealand earthquake building collapse that killed 115 “New Zealand’s prime minister, John Key, said building failures were responsible for 175 of the 185 deaths from the quake… inexperienced engineer, inadequately constructed and should never have been issued a building permit, a government report said today…” + CTV building ‘should never have been issued a building permit’ 10 Dec 2012

[2] Quake directly beneath Christchurch The Press, 27/12/2010 + Christchurch Boxing Day earthquake explained, 3/6/2011.

[3] Pike River Mine disaster + ‘They’re still not home’ “A report into the Pike River coalmine disaster reveals New Zealand’s ‘Third World’ health and safety record for mining.. failure at virtually every level.. by September 2010.. essentially the mine should have been shut down” The Press, 5/11/2012 + “Firstly, we need to be angry, bloody angry, that this tragedy has happened and at the way the families have been treated by the government” Pike River: ‘cashflow’ versus workers’ safety Redline blog, 1 November 2012.

[4] The Canterbury Earthquakes Royal Commission report* + witness evidence + Coroner expresses concern over emergency staff TV1 News, 7 November 2012 + Reportage of the CTV inquest cites Police and Fire Service presuming each other was in charge, causing delays and probably more lost lives. The loss of regional (ECan) Civil Defence coordination by John Key’s actions makes his responsibility in the swollen tragedy one for which he must morally and legally pay: Contradictory evidence heard at CTV inquest ibid. + NZ Police view of CTV disaster: “police were on the scene ‘within minutes’ and performing rescues. It was one of many sites that demanded a police response.. The police’s main roles were to control the cordon and manage the sudden process, while the Fire Service took command of the rescue” Police ‘not equipped, trained’ for CTV disaster The Press, 29/10/2012 + “A meeting between 11pm and midnight on February 22 to discuss a rescue plan for the eastern side of the CTV building revealed some disagreement.. Police officer in charge Sergeant Michael Brooklands, Fire Service personnel and civilian contractors were at the briefing.. no-one was rescued alive after the meeting.. there was ‘no formalised structure’ for who was in charge of the CTV site. He mentioned the need for a single leader to two senior police officers who visited the site on the afternoon of February 22.” ‘Disagreement’ over CTV rescue efforts The Press, 30/10/2012 + Engineer held up from CTV rescue by Christchurch City Council’s inept, know-all but amateur Civil Defence bungling “Communication between the agencies would be improved, with plans for a combined facility in the central-city blueprint” extended ambition “The arrival of Urban Search and Rescue (Usar) was a “big help” because members brought a more professional and structured approach” The Press, 01/11/2012 + “An Urban Search and Rescue (Usar) member who took part in the ‘chaotic’ rescue efforts at the collapsed Canterbury Television building says a senior Fire Service representative should have been in charge of the site.” CTV rescue labelled ‘chaotic’ The Press, 02/11/2012 – Scapegoating of USAR has been in the NZ Prime Minister’s interest – politically driven? Whereas the NZ public know, only too well and instinctively, that service personnel are all that stands between them and total chaos. Service personnel are the general public’s sons and daughters, mums and dads, invariably. Don’t pass the buck onto your victims, John Key! + Key’s bungling CDEM manslaughter: “The first senior fire officer on the Canterbury Television building site has defended claims he failed to establish command after the February 2011 earthquake, saying ‘the book goes out the window’. Station officer Alan Butcher told a coroner’s inquest into eight of the 115 deaths at the site after the quake that he did not have the time or resources to ‘sit back’ and take command or ask a higher-ranking officer to do so. Butcher’s Addington crew and one other crew with a station officer (SO) were the first on the scene. The two SOs did not discuss taking charge of the site, Butcher said. ‘The book goes out the window when you’re stuck like this; you are doing the best you can,’ he said. ‘There was no [time] at the time to be able to sit back and discuss. You’re in there working. The fire brigade was stretched. There’s no doubt about it. ‘Generally in an incident like that, more trucks and a more senior officer arrives and the senior officer takes charge.’ Counsel assisting the coroner Richard Raymond asked Butcher why he did not follow the co-ordinated incident management system (CIMS) designed for emergency services to co-operate in major emergencies. ‘CIMS or anything like that is not working at this stage because you do not have an overall site commander,’ Butcher said. ‘There is nobody there. You’re too busy working.’ Raymond asked whether CIMS was for ‘exactly that purpose – to identify an incident controller so that the site can be properly managed?’ ‘We were just stretched,’ Butcher replied. “There is no spare person … to command the site.'” Fire officer defends CTV decisions The Press, 31/10/2012 – By denying them regional coordination (ECan), money-minded manslaughterer Key denied the NZ Fire Service and their USAR wing critical life-saving back-up. #ArrestJohnKey! New coroners appointed NZ Govt, 6 June 2007.

There is a criminal case to be answered by PM Key, for civil defence failure at a critical time in Christchurch. Either that or there was Police derogation of duty on 22-Feb-2011 @CTV, not the Fire Service’s. Police blame had a cause and at least ONE HEAD MUST ROLL! As bad as NZ Fire Service admin may be, that isn’t relevant at CTV; unless you are critical of the local command. The inquest made these layers into the fall guys, but is this just or not?

As a fatal incident, it was not NZFS’s to command, but the NZ Police’s. Wellington / central NZFS is not involved, because the “national emergency” call was (political) interference and incorrect – only that call brings NZFS admin into play, and it is not legitimate. Rather, it seems to be continuation of the Bazley-headed attack on NZFS, to help grind them down. The Chch NZFS command could coordinate its own efforts, at best (but was overwhelmed), so wasn’t and could not be responsible for the emergency scene. If Police could not manage their 22Feb2011 responsibility there, then that is what regional CDEM is for – to put the Canterbury NZ Defence Force in charge immediately. Were they at the site? On time? … If not, then the political interference is responsible for the bungled rescue, and has blood on its hands. Cabinet continues the fiction of escalation to Wellington NZFS to escape due blame. #ArrestJohnKey

Criminal damage was done via ECan regional civil defence, if “John Key’s intervention prompted the return to the #CTV site” – it should not have been necessary, but for his and Parker’s cash/power-motivated, thoroughly unprofessional meddling in Canterbury CDEM! Official ‘disturbed’ by death claim The Press 05/11/2012

Update 23 Feb 2013 – One down, ~63 to go.

“The timing of the decision appeared to be politically motivated.. Kate Wilkinson has fronted up to her responsibilities; the prime minister has yet to.” Pike River claims Wilkinson The Press 23/01/2013

* “Civil defence and emergency management should be responsible for setting up and maintaining cordons during the state of emergency.” @ CTV EQNZ 22Feb2011. Ref. Royal Commission of Inquiry into Building Failure Caused by the Canterbury Earthquakes Final Report, Volume 5: Section 1: Summary and recommendations – Volumes 5-7 para 156. CDEM absence was Key’s main input that day – his effect on ECan – costing lives through rescue failure. KEY should RESIGN NOW!

More suffering, community neglect ‘from the top’: One injured in fire at Defence Force rifle range Radio New Zealand 23/01/2013 + Army ‘should be prosecuted’ The Press 25/01/2013

Rationale for this post:
1. Be honest, and always tell the truth. 2. Look after your mates: in times of pressure, have their backs, as moral duty and so that they might be there to have yours in future. 3. If the time of distress is beyond the capacity of you and your mates to manage (an emergency), call on appointed authorities for support. 4. If the authorities’ ability proves lacking at that time, ask why – you owe this to any mates lost, at the least, to improve the situation for everyone in future. 5. If Civil Defence (Army NZDF) values place civilian losses second to material losses, as the Christchurch experience illustrates, then is it ok for your elected government to endorse that? 6. What is the point of their, and your, existence, under such circumstances? 7. Discharge any public responsibility you get honourably and diligently ~ NZ Army to explain civil defence failure Press Release 27 January 2013

Join the 2013 social justice campaign: John Key‘s corporate dictatorship

21 months of Christchurch earthquakes - ChartEnergy 230512

21 months of Christchurch earthquakes – ChartEnergy 230512

23 May forecast – This chart shows why we have certainty that Christchurch City’s next magnitude 5+ earthquake is imminent. The consistent U-shaped inter-quake curves trace what stage in the cycle of aftershock regeneration we are in.
Source:; thanks Chris Crowe for the base information display; interpretation Copyright © Rik Tindall 2012.

The fact that it takes a community volunteer to unearth important geological knowledge like this – with significant bearing upon community well-being – shows the utter negligent bankruptcy of National-ACT growth/austerity cowboy government ~ BRING CHANGE!

25 May update – The forecast 5+ earthquake did indeed arrive:
Magnitude 5.2, Friday, May 25 2012 at 2:44 pm (NZST), 10 km east of Christchurch.

Pegasus Bay magnitude 5.2 quake - GNS 250512

Pegasus Bay magnitude 5.2 quake – GNS 250512

Pegasus Bay mag 5.2 quake + 7 days of 3 up - 250512

Pegasus Bay magnitude 5.2 earthquake + 7 days of mag 3 up – 250512

“Magnitude: 5.23, Energy: 1 kilo tonne, Depth: 12.42 km, Address: In the water 10.9 KM from Scarborough” (Sumner – as forecast). Source:

Pegasus Bay mag 5.2 quake - GNS Canterbury seismograph drums 250512

Pegasus Bay mag 5.2 quake – GNS Canterbury seismograph drums 250512


Pegasus Bay mag 5.2 quake context - GIM 250512

Pegasus Bay mag 5.2 quake context – GIM 250512


How the Energy Chart worked out, with new line plotted:

Pegasus Bay magnitude 5.2 quake - ChartEnergy 250512

Pegasus Bay magnitude 5.2 quake (circled) – ChartEnergy 250512


12 minutes before this 5.2 quake, 2:32 PM – 25 May 12 via web – @OurWaterOurCity tweet:
#NZ corporate fascist National cowboy government trades public #water assets 4 private & Canterbury #democracy 4 irrigation #Budget2012 #OWS

Magnitude 5.2 quake rocks Christchurch Fairfax NZ News 15:20 25/05/2012

ground truth has spoken

Realise all human potential and END WASTE.
Respect Earth environment and resurrect ONE LOVE.

Store note: Papers Past – Press – 21 August 1906 – Page 7 – A LOCAL PHENOMENON 15 Aug 1868 Valparaiso quake and tsunami waves recalled.

Kaiapoi EQNZ insurance claims protest - 250911

Kaiapoi EQNZ insurance claims protest - 250911

Full replacement policies paid on “secure homes” for many years by these workers – REPLACE the land lost to Act Of God earthquake at market-rate exchange, or see property rights condemned as myth and SUBTERFUGE.

Bring honesty to governance, NATIONAL, or get OUT!

Kaiapoi redzone EQNZ protest, AMI banner - 250911

Kaiapoi EQNZ redzone protest, AMI Insurance banner - 250911

Fight to stay put a call to action “A Kaiapoi couple whose home sits on condemned land are stepping up their fight against the government’s buy-out plans with a protest rally today which they hope will draw together other red-zone residents keen to stay put. Brent and Shirley Cairns say they have invested too much in their home, their business and community to simply walk away now..” The Press 25/09/2011

TV1 News coverage: Red zone homeowners protest land deal “More than 100 people gathered in the North Canterbury township Kaiapoi this afternoon to protest the government’s land buy-up deal. Issues range from the valuations used, to a lack of access to detailed geo-technical information. Protesters also want insurance companies to honour full replacement policies. Rally organiser Brent Cairns told those gathered Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownlee misled red zone residents by refusing to label the buy-outs a compulsory acquisition. He says Brownlee then told people if they refuse the offer, they will end up with a much worse deal..”

Kaiapoi EQNZ redzone protest, State Insurance banner - 250911

Kaiapoi EQNZ redzone protest, State Insurance banner - 250911

TV3 News coverage: Red zone home owners rally in Kaiapoi “Many people retired in Kaiapoi, north of Christchurch, before earthquakes devastated their homes and now Government offers are leaving some unable to buy a new place to live. About 200 Cantabrians rallied in the town on Sunday to draw attention to their plight. The government’s offer to pay the Rateable Value (RV) for red zone home owners’ properties will not cover the price of a property in the same area, with the property market under huge demandfollowing the earthquakes.. In Kaiapoi, the offer would leave some residents $NZ100,000 short of being able to buy a new property and many who were retired could not get a new mortgage.. People are also battling insurance companies and want more support from the government to help them do that”

Red-Zone Residents Fight Back “a tide of discontent rising” MetroNews 14Sept2011 + RadioNZ report: Kaiapoi red zone residents to fight to save their land “Red zone residents in Kaiapoi have joined counterparts in Christchurch’s eastern suburbs in fighting the government’s attempt to move them off their land” 26/09/2011 mp3 + CTV News item 26/09/2011 + Quake City sees Red redrave.blogspot 25Sept2011 + Red zone exodus ‘only way’ “The government says exceptions are impossible” The Press 02/10/2011

With the Australian real estate market forecast to soon undergo “correction” by a 50% drop in house prices, we can only expect the same – or worse – here, with more affecting factors in play (like earthquakes). What will address the growing local housing crisis is neither the National government we have now, not the Labour government of the past: indeed, for self-interested retirement fund investment reasons, it was Labour who pushed multiple home ownership business and inflated house prices more than anyone else! In this age of the bursting international debt bubble, a new scale of remedies is required like never before. Vote CHANGE!

Take our unique governance demands seriously – Vote Republic of Canterbury by promoting the – Thanks!

Join – “A place for all quake-affected homeowners to share their realities” and chat on + Avon-Otakaro Network AvON “a vision for the Avon River red zone”

Geotech assessment request info removed from CERA website? – Seek “Response information” ECan CCC etc.

350 Otautahi – Sustainable Canterbury mitigation action – 24-09-2011 commuter rail workshop – 3pm-5pm at WEA, 59 Gloucester Street, Christchurch.

~ a 350-Otautahi 2009 team update workshop:
How to effect change in local government in support of cyclists and emission reductions more substantially.

~ Is the smart “350” cause/brand being dumbed down and diluted into a minority matter of consumer choice? Come help build real lasting change.

~ “350” parts per million of atmospheric carbon is the goal – to stabilise Earth climate – and how we get there demands innovation. “Moving Planet” mobilisation is one means, but are there others? Workshop on empowerment vs major emissions sources, 3pm @WEA 24.09.2011.

~ Consumers, you are victims, not the cause – tax/costs up, quality of life down – TO ACTION!

~ Another magnitude 4+ aftershock earthqauke has heralded Moving-Planet day here in Otautahi: stop them?

~ Come help build a Sustainable Canterbury:

Cashmere 7.01am mag 4.0 quake - GNS GeoNet 240911

Cashmere 7.01am mag 4.0 quake - GNS GeoNet 240911

recent Quakes NZ - GNS 050711

recent Quakes NZ - GNS 050711

From bad to worse – this is the decaying governance of a once-promising, world-leading country: “Aotearoa” New Zealand. It can offer fair promise again, once we learn from history and reverse the current rotten slide back into feudalism.

Crony capitalism, with political correctness hiding Maaori corporate corruption, has reached the end of any useful life it could never have. Behind the CERA-closed doors, democracy is sold out to deadly private profiteering: e.g. ‘Bizarre’ delay in Christchurch heating programme.

It is no coincidence that record Papatuanuku / Earth “kick-back” – in terms of angry seismic / storm destruction – matches the same traded in high places, from sale of raw environmental quality: mauri roa.

Viz: In resource consent terms, the “applicant” has an entirely separate role from the “decision-maker / panel”, under the Resource Management Act 1991/2004. Any connection between the two roles must be declared at the outset, to maintain public confidence in the legitimacy of the governing process – under “conflict of interest” rules. So when the National-ACT-Maaori-United Future Party (NACT) coalition government ignores that democratic norm, they drag New Zealand backward in time, to when aristocratic overlords held rough and ready power over all things including people – a situation we hypocritically “deplore” overseas.

recent Quakes NZ - GNS 250711

recent Quakes NZ - GNS 250711

The political tussle between factions of Te Rununga o Ngai Tahu (TRoNT) are well-known, with chairman Mark Solomon having fended off repeat contenders. But this internal democratic history bears no relation to TRoNT’s responsibility for some of the same to the wider community. We they ignore with contempt, for improper corporate advantage.

It is said that the commercial twin to TRoNT governance – Ngai Tahu Holdings Corporation Limited (NTHC) – struggles constantly with TRONT to assert where real material power resides, to maximise Iwi profitability. But that contest is even poorer substitute for Ngai Tahu’s responsibility to the rest of Aotearoa-NZ, in democratic terms; unless moving backwards, into raw tribal brutalism, is acceptable, that is. It may be an efficiency for capital accumulation, in the same way that feudal overloads ran roughshod over all in their way historically, but this is not progress.

The Iwi corporates have no place being “appointed” to the RMA decision-making of sound regional governance – on matters they have massive pecuniary interest in – under any treaty. The fact that they have been just exposes the hidden, self-interested public-asset plunder that John Key’s cabinet does sanction every day.

In the outside world, this behaviour is known as “white-collar crime”, and is sometimes (weakly) prosecuted – no coincidence there, either:

Law-maker ethics?


The NACT-TRoNT/NTHL preferred investment partners at work this week: China caught burying crashed train cars and the truth? Ref. Ngai Tahu reject flag as ‘trouble’ “will not fly the controversial tino rangatiratanga flag during Waitangi Day celebrations.. United Tribes flag was significant for Maori. ‘It is quite important because it recognised our capacity to trade overseas and recognised our independence'” [So why has a regional governance role at ECan been seized, on top of and in direct ethical conflict with that growing trading role?] 05/02/2010; Big dairy plans for Ngai Tahu 6 Jan 2011; Ngai Tahu investment arm to acquire Agria stake “South Island tribe Ngai Tahu’s investment arm is buying a 7 per cent stake in the Chinese company taking over PGG Wrightson” 18/04/2011; Ngai Tahu dapples in dairy farming “longevity of three pilot dairy farms owned by the South Island’s largest iwi is hanging in the balance due to its sustainability goals” 16 Jun 2011; Ngai Tahu sees potential in PGGW parent holding “iwi-based group was pushing ahead with plans to develop dairy farms out of forestry land in Canterbury. Agria would be a significant partner and give Ngai Tahu better links into China” 29/06/2011; Ngai Tahu’s legacy set to grow “Solomon is now keen Ngai Tahu puts its money into large infrastructure projects like irrigation schemes and power generation ventures. If a National government opens up state-owned enterprises for sale, Ngai Tahu will be first in line.. treaty settlements as a way of buying back some of the mana of government, the rightful position that was lost over the past 170 years, perhaps” 03/07/2011; Ngai Tahu Shareholders “The tribe has a very skilled and sophisticated communications unit initially set up with the purpose of in forming tribal members and the general public about Ngai Tahu activities;.. Unfortunately the skills have been captured by TRoNT executive management and used to “spin” what they think people should know”.

… An electoral fight-back please, while we still can.

“Divine judgement” of “Godzone” draws nigh: is coming due.

Earth revulsion today, at abuse with the area name “Balmoral”?

Balmoral magnitude 3.1 quake - 250711

Balmoral magnitude 3.1 quake - 250711

Climate change evidence ‘undeniable’ and Fears raised over ‘fracking’: We have been warned.

“No one can predict earthquakes” say New Zealand geologists. WRONG! and just proven so.

But blame is not simply due there, for few standing forms of authority have proven worthy of respect around the Canterbury earthquake sequence.

NZ recent Quakes - GNS 220711

NZ recent Quakes - GNS 220711

National-aligned profiteers are pillaging the public purse, taking the private opportunity that disaster too readily presents. Sufficient care is far from evident. With the crony system illegitimately imposed upon our region through an appointed and conflicted Environment Canterbury commission, under false title of “kaitiakitanga”, all kinds of rot have spread widely and will continue so until neutralised.

Christchurch City is broken and desolate, brought low for aligning with immoral cash-hunger, with those they would have us stupidly look up to – Tangata Whenua and Anglicanism.

This backward cabal of anti-democratic crime is tearing New Zealand apart. The evidence is now in, and so we must document it, for building the movement for ethical CHANGE.

Recent Aotearoa-NZ earthquakes – marked with stars at left, courtesy GeoNet – are confirming the dynamic trapezoid lattice of fault movement, from tectonic plate pressure that I outlined yesterday, thus, in
Waitaha kicks back ~ Te Anau 4.7:

Te Anau magnitude 4.7 quake - GNS Googlemap 210711c-2

Te Anau magnitude 4.7 quake - GNS Googlemap 210711c-2

Note the distorted, south-westward pressure driving the Greendale-linked Canterbury faults, and the doubled-reverse seismic effect that this directs back north-east through Wellington (Magnitude 2.9, July 21 2011 at 10:54 pm).

Note too the direct connection with Kermadec Trench movement, and with North Island volcanism, built over the tensioning Alpine fault:

Te Anau magnitude 4.7 quake - GNS Googlemap 210711b

Te Anau magnitude 4.7 quake - GNS Googlemap 210711b

The arrow pointing south-east, through the North Island to offshore Porongahau, shows why this area has recent ground movement (precedent to [5 July Taupo 6.5 quake and then] what?) …

Magnitude 5.1, Friday, July 22 2011 at 5:39 am (NZST), 40 km west of Christchurch:

Dunsandel magnitude 5.1 quake - GNS 220711

Dunsandel magnitude 5.1 quake - GNS 220711

Note the very clear connection now established between Kermadec Arc tectonic events – the two little ‘before-and-after’ blips on the top, Raoul Island line here, of deep distant resonance – and Canterbury’s events (and everything NZ seismic north and south of here).

Note too the equally obvious link between Canterbury’s quakes and those at the deep southern end of the Alpine Fault, with yesterday’s Te Anau 4.7 starting off these Canterbury seismograph records and today’s Dunsandel 5.1 finishing them:

Canterbury seismograph drums - GNS 220711a

Canterbury seismograph drums - GNS 220711a

Note too the ‘insulated’ nature of Inchbonnie zone, where geology is somehow very different, such that quake energy travels and releases very unevenly through there, suggesting it is pivotal in the major releases of Alpine fault energy of the past and to inevitably come.

Here is the precise prediction made that today’s large quake would occur, when and why: Next ChristChurch 6+ #quake correctly foresaw a significant event after “Line X” – the 10-Gigajoule average daily energy-release line – had been crossed on

Dunsandel magnitude 5.1 quake - 220711

Dunsandel magnitude 5.1 quake - 220711

What added a surprising smidgen of remote energy into NZ tectonic motion overnight, again, to release both a small Banks Peninsula aftershock and this morning’s magnitude 5.1 – an otherwise undocumented, modest Kermadec Trench quake around 11:20pm NZST (top, RIZ line effects):

NZ seismograph drums - GNS 220711

NZ seismograph drums - GNS 220711

Raoul Island seismograph drum - GNS 220711

Raoul Island seismograph drum - GNS 220711

See Kermadec collision cont’d post for more detail on the recent history.

Here was the new energy being delivered onto the Canterbury fault system build-up, via the Hikurangi Trough north of Kaikoura:

Dunsandel mag 5.1 quake, Kahutara River seismograph drum, south-west of Kaikoura - GNS 220711

Dunsandel mag 5.1 quake, Kahutara River seismograph drum, south-west of Kaikoura - GNS 220711

North and south of New Zealand, the Pacific Plate is moving with evermore energy, at our mounting peril. Today:

Balleny Islands 5.6, Kermadec 5.0 quakes - GIM 220711a

Balleny Islands 5.6, Kermadec 5.0 quakes - GIM 220711a

Fiji magnitude 6.0 quake - GIM 220711a

Fiji magnitude 6.0 quake - GIM 220711a

Note how this morning’s Canterbury 5.1 ‘aftershock’ was a definitively volcanic trace:

Dunsandel mag 5.1 quake, Taranaki seismograph drum - GNS 220711

Dunsandel mag 5.1 quake, Taranaki seismograph drum - GNS 220711

Dunsandel mag 5.1 quake, Ngauruhoe seismograph drum - GNS 220711

Dunsandel mag 5.1 quake, Ngauruhoe seismograph drum - GNS 220711

Dunsandel mag 5.1 quake, Ruapehu seismograph drum - GNS 220711

Dunsandel mag 5.1 quake, Ruapehu seismograph drum 1 - GNS 220711

Dunsandel mag 5.1 quake, Ruapehu seismograph drum 2 - GNS 220711

Dunsandel mag 5.1 quake, Ruapehu seismograph drum 2 - GNS 220711

Dunsandel mag 5.1 quake, Taupo seismograph drum - GNS 220711

Dunsandel mag 5.1 quake, Taupo seismograph drum - GNS 220711

Dunsandel mag 5.1 quake, Northland seismograph drum - GNS 220711

Dunsandel mag 5.1 quake, Northland seismograph drum - GNS 220711

Remember, at root of New Zealand’s building geological crisis – that has claimed 211 lives already since November 2010 – is gross breach of ‘Godzone’ integrity.

The laws of nature have been transgressed for private gain, through the indefensible sale of Aotearoa-NZ mauri, that is mirrored in ignorant breach of humanity’s democratic principles. This has a moral, intellectual and ‘spiritual’, as well as a geophysical dimension, all of which require unifying resolution – with haste.

Our current Prime Minister has proven himself – through repeated inability to put the national interest above private interest – to be a major cause rather than a resolver of all this.

~ On November 26, JOHN KEY MUST GO!