Tag Archive: disaster capitalism


“US crude oil futures collapsed below $0 on Monday for the first time in history, amid a coronavirus-induced supply glut, ending the day at a stunning minus $US37.63 a barrel as desperate traders paid to get rid of oil. Brent crude, the international benchmark, also slumped, but that contract was nowhere near as weak because more storage is available worldwide” – Reuters via ODT, 21 April 2020 – But “a record 160 million barrels is sitting in tankers around the world”, as storage is quickly running out. Little will be available beyond May, Al Jazeera reported just before this news. – see Reuters.[1] This expresses the classic crisis of over-production,[2] in which the impacts can only compound and intensify. We have 1918 and 1929 rolled into one.

Oil production “cuts will come too slowly to offset rising inventories, which hit 518.6 million barrels in the US last week, just 3 percent off an all-time record, the Energy Department said. ‘If storage continues to increase at the end of the day, which seems likely considering all these Saudi barrels knocking at the door, then we are going to get to maximum storage sometime in the not so distant future,’ said Bob Yawger, director of futures at Mizuho in New York.”

US oil storage January 2017 to April 2020 - Bloomberg

US oil storage January 2017 to April 2020 – Bloomberg

Source: Brent and US oil rebound after two days of historic losses, Al Jazeera, 23 April 2020.

Two days after dip, medium-term WTI and Brent oil TradingEconomics.com ‘recovery’ graphs:

WTI year to 23 Apr 2020

WTI year to 23 Apr 2020


Brent year to 23 Apr 2020

Brent year to 23 Apr 2020

What will happen next?

It is easy to forecast another crude oil price collapse as April closes, to below $10 a barrel, trading through May to hold the $16 latest low line if possible when all the stream spare storage capacity fills up. Output cannot be curtailed by enough producers in time to stop this lengthy return to medium to long term base value lows.

The logic of the market is to settle in at single digit barrels for the duration, while the costliest North American production is demolished. Such is the damage to demand and employment now locked in by pandemic shut-down response and unleashed technological upgrades. This is the beginning of the third Great Depression. Problematic war in the Middle East is the only potential diversion of this course, and the slump’s most likely remedy – under traditional mechanisms.

We have entered a vastly different world, with a deadly pandemic unparalleled since 1918. So will we, the people, shape the new world coming? ‘Recovery must be inclusive for the social contract to survive’, the Inside Story panel concluded, in “Why did US oil prices hit negative territory?”, Al Jazeera, 22 April 2020. Also regard Earth Day: Coronavirus crisis offers big green opportunity and ask Is civil disobedience enough or do we need a climate revolution?, 23 April 2020. The young generation know their future is imperilled and precisely by what: aged infrastructure/maintainers.

Nothing is guaranteed, except that the level of comfort so many knew before Covid is now gone – Goldman: Don’t Expect U.S. Oil Prices To Recover Soon, OilPrice.com, 21 April 2020. So much of financial sector credit is based upon appreciating energy industry shares, almost ‘too big to fail’ but not quite. It is the critical modern resource, the lifeblood of industrial economy, the core carrier of growth: too little or too much energy cost, both inhibit prosperity. The long answer is we have to move on from utter dependency on fossil fuel burning.

Competing large national oil interests – North American, Russian, Middle East – are all pitched against each other, on a currently shrinking transport market with no recovery in near sight. Smaller producer countries – in Africa, Asia and South America – face at this time the same and thus proportionately larger challenges of internal cohesion – resulting from this loss of revenue, profit, reinvestment and jobs.

The March surge of Saudi oil has been shunned by the US administration so will divert to Europe and Asia, flooding the markets there, viz Rising calls to block Saudi crude shipments to US, Al Jazeera, 23 April 2020. China is stockpiling the cheapened flow as fast as it can, as the world’s biggest oil consumer.[3] Contrast to North America’s accelerating market chaos.[4]

“A slow recovery that keeps oil prices down below $20 would mean heightened risk of political instability throughout the oil-producing world. It would strain cooperation in OPEC because the members would not see the benefit of their cutbacks” – Crude carnage: ‘There’s pain everywhere’ says analyst, Al Jazeera, 22 April 2020.

It is essential to recreate trade as sustainable, now and for the future, with whole new food, energy and distribution dynamics and underpinnings. The health framework can then improve for everyone too.

Current values under watch:
tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil or oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/45 WTI + Brent.

The estimated 12 to 18 month recovery time expected while awaiting a globally available Covid19 vaccine is reinforced by this being the expected time to clear the mounting glut, to effect enough oil/shale well shut-in to start lifting values. A very slow and expensive process, especially in jobs.

This will be a protracted, increasingly painful slump; most like 1929’s. The stark choice of ways out of, it is high time to discuss.[5]

[1] “Stocks are likely to be growing by 10% per month… the entire supply chain is likely to be completely full within 2-4 months. … At the end of January [industry storage] was a mere 200 million barrels below the record high of 3.1 billion barrels – reported in July 2016, shortly after the end of the previous oil price slump. … As the petroleum market moves into massive surplus, storage has become the most scarce commodity in the industry.” – Global oil storage to fill rapidly as consumption plunges, Reuters, 28 March, & “The US Energy Information Administration last week reported a record 19.3 million-barrel crude stock build. There is currently a remaining 21 million barrels of storage available at the Cushing hub in Cushing, Oklahoma. But that will fill up to the brim by mid-to-late May, Rystad Energy predicts”, U.S. crude oil storage is filling rapidly, 18 April 2020.

The World Is Running Out of Places to Store Its Oil, New York Times, 26 March 2020.

“Goldman Sachs … estimates that the world has around 1 billion barrels of spare storage capacity, but much of that will never be accessed ‘as the velocity of the current shock will breach transportation networks’ … ‘With demand collapsing but supply rising after OPEC and non-affiliated Russia failed to reach a production cut agreement in early March, global inventories could reach their maximum capacity within weeks,’ analysts at Eurasia Group said … ‘Industry participants are saying it is virtually impossible to find conventional onshore tanks. Even if OPEC and other producers start restricting their output again soon, the supply overhang from the global lockdown is so big that storage capacity will likely hit its limit by midyear. Already, ports and refiners are turning away oil tankers. This will put even more downward pressure on prices and pose an existential threat to many companies,’ Eurasia Group said. Analysts at Energy Aspects expect the ongoing oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia will keep production elevated until the end of the year. This means the world will run out of crude storage capacity early in the third quarter of the year, they added, with product containment arriving earlier” Oil prices could soon turn negative as the world runs out of places to store crude, analysts warn, CNBC, 1 April 2020.

The Surprising Winners And Losers Of The Global Oil Glut, yahoo finance, 20 April 2020.

A hunt for any storage space turns urgent as oil glut grows, Reuters, 21 April 2020.

“Oil prices were already weighed down by oversupply going into 2020 … ‘Market prices are showing that oil is all but worthless now. It’s going to take a long time to draw down the huge supply overhang'” – Crash! US crude futures turn negative for first time in history, Al Jazeera, 21 April 2020.

“OPEC+ coalition… agreed to slash production by about 10 million barrels a day earlier this month, but the cuts won’t kick in until May. Even then, they won’t be enough to balance out the demand destruction from the virus in the short term, which could be as high as 30 million barrels a day… Inventories at the biggest U.S. storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, are at the highest since 2017 and are expected to rise further. The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute reported that nationwide crude stockpiles rose 13.2 million barrels last week… Meanwhile, Indian fuel tanks are now 95% full, according to officials at three state-owned refiners” – Brent nears a 21-year low under demand and storage pressure, WorldOil, 22 April 2020.

[2] More e.g.: Overproduction, Wikipedia; The Marxist Theory of Overaccumulation and Crisis, Simon Clarke; Will coronavirus signal the end of capitalism?, Al Jazeera, 3 April 2020.

[3] “Rather than cutting back on imports, China pushed crude oil into storage tanks at almost double the rate in the first quarter of this year than it did in the same period in 2019 as the new coronavirus hit domestic consumption … Other major crude importing countries lack the ability to simply divert oil into storage on the scale that China can, meaning they will have to lower the amount of crude being imported. Even countries with large commercial and strategic storages, such as the United States, will find that the volume of crude available is so much that it will overwhelm available tank space within weeks, rather that months … by itself it’s nowhere near enough to compensate for the loss of an estimated 30 million bpd of global consumption” – China doubled crude oil storage inflows during coronavirus demand hit, Reuters, 20 April 2020.

[4] “an acute state of oversupply in North America … ‘This inflection will play out in a matter of weeks, not months, with the market likely forced to balance before June,’ Goldman analysts warned. In other words, the U.S. oil industry could lose several million barrels per day in the next few weeks in what Goldman analysts called a ‘violent rebalancing.'” The Worst Is Yet To Come For Oil Prices, OilPrice.com, 21 April + Oil Prices Hit $15 For The First Time In 21 Years 19 April + “Canada, Venezuela, Iraq, Brazil, Libya, Ecuador and even the U.S. are seeing forced shut-ins due to storage constraints, COVID-19 and low prices” A Massive Wave Of Shut-Ins Fails To Halt Oil Price Crash 21 April + $1 Oil: Saudi Arabia’s Attempt To Crush U.S. Shale 1 April + “fewest number of active rigs since January 2017.. EIA’s estimate is that the United States still produced 13 million barrels of oil per day on average this week, just 100,000 bpd off the all-time high” The Largest Rig Count Collapse In 5 Years 3 April + “only if the United States joins the cuts” Russia To Cut 1 Million Barrels Per Day, But Under One Condition + The World’s Biggest Oil Deal Can’t Save Crude Prices 6 April + Oil Prices Hit $1 Following A 90% Crash, 20 April + How Oil Prices Could Go To $100 + In Rare Development, Oil Majors Are Forced To Cut Output Under OPEC Deal viz British Petroleum-led project in Azerbaijan, 23 April + “According to Goldman Sachs, global oil storage could be completely full within the next three weeks, and another dramatic crash could follow” Oil Prices Crash 24% As Storage Fears Mount + “unprecedented situation in global energy markets has provided traditional producers with an opportunity to displace incumbents in primarily the U.S. The price war Saudi Arabia started after Russia refused to reduce output in early March has decimated budgets of energy-dependent countries and oil companies. Riyadh and Moscow are playing with fire.. Riyadh is also upping the ante in Asia where Aramco has cut prices by $3 to $5 per barrel, which is the second drastic cut in two months.. energy industry seems to be heading full speed towards a cliff, exporters in Russia and Saudi Arabia prefer to maintain their market share instead of saving the industry. Only time will tell where this strategy will lead to” Saudi Arabia And Russia Fight Bitter Market Share Battle As Oil Prices Collapse, 27 April + “UBS, a Swiss financial firm, sees oil prices rising by as much as 115 percent by the end of the year. ‘While the oil market is heavily oversupplied this quarter, we expect it to move toward balance next quarter and become under-supplied in 4Q this year as lockdown restrictions are eased and oil demand picks up,’ Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, explained. OPEC, which is preparing to roll out its joint plan to cut global oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day, is even more hopeful, predicting a recovery by the second half of the year. Mohamed Arkab, Energy Minister of OPEC’s rotating president Algeria, noted, ‘the global economy is not going to stay paralyzed,’ adding that he predicts the price of the Brent benchmark could reach $40 by the beginning of the third quarter” Are Oil Prices Heading Back Into Negative Territory? + “’this is a never-before-seen level of national economic calamity; history doesn’t get bigger than this’.. Most people, policy makers and economists are energy blind and cannot, therefore, fully grasp the gravity or the consequences of what is happening.. Oil production and prices are unlikely to regain late 2018 levels. Renewable sources will fall behind along with efforts to mitigate climate change. It’s Really Bad.. Gross domestic product (GDP) is proportional to oil consumption.. because oil is the economy. Every aspect of production and use of goods and services requires burning fossil energy. There are approximately 4.5 years of human labor in a barrel of oil. No other energy source comes close to that level of energy density.. Large segments of the U.S. oil industry will have to be nationalized before the year is over.. productivity multiplier will be essential if the U.S. economy is to avoid collapse or for it to recover if collapse is unavoidable.. foolish practice of draining America first since the beginning of tight oil production a decade ago.. The game is over for oil. We should place all of our attention on saving the economy.. a chance to simplify and to learn to be satisfied with no more than what we need. It is unlikely that we will have much choice” The Death Of U.S. Oil, 28 April + The World’s Largest Oil Fund Is Sitting On $725 Million In Unrealized Losses re United States Oil Fund, 29 April + Venezuela Oil Exports Climb As OPEC Agreement Kicks In, 4 May 2020.

[5] By the late 1920s in the United States, “the huge oversupply of crude totally disrupted the market and rational planning, thus creating sudden price collapses.” The October 1930 opening of the East Texas Black Giant, a well reservoir so vast it dwarfed everything previously known in America, caused the $1.85 per barrel price of 1926 – that had dropped to $1 by 1930 – to fall to 15, 6 or even 2 cents at times, by May 1931. – The Prize, Daniel Yergin, 1991, pp.223, 247.

[DRAFT #5 – more to be added.]

“Oil companies are some of the most important payers of dividends across financial market worldwide, providing vital income streams to pension funds and millions of smaller investors. ..fears about the ability of oil companies to maintain dividend payments beyond 2020 are unlikely to subside until a vaccine for Covid-19 is discovered” Oil prices on a slippery slope, Financial Times, 24 April 2020.
“There are about 3.2 billion barrels of crude oil already in global inventories, according to Orbital Insight, a record high. The majority of land-based oil storage is in the form of Floating Roof Tanks (FRT). Overall, Orbital Insight says the world’s FRT storage is at 55.6% capacity, so the firm sees about 2 billion more barrels of storage capacity available. Beyond FRT storage are alternatives, such as fixed roof tanks, salt caverns, or even more expensive floating storage like tankers at sea. Ursa said recent estimates put sea-based tanker storage at about 160 million barrels. Essentially, the lower price of oil drops, the more oil producers look to expensive types of storage capacity as viable. Storage capacity options have an inverse relationship to production methods, as more expensive methods of extracting oil become viable as the price rises. ‘There’s still places to put oil. It’s been diminished because volumes have increased because of the amount that’s been leased out. But they’re going to keep searching out for more and more tanks to fill,’ [Ursa Space Systems analyst Geoffrey] Craig said. ‘If this continues, there’s going to be another phase where you would have to have another shift down in price,’ Craig added. June contracts for WTI crude traded at $16.54 a barrel on Friday, down more than 9% this week. Brent crude traded at $21.22 a barrel, down more than 20% this week. Hall noted that the recent panicked sell-off was largely focused on storage capacity running out in Cushing, Oklahoma. He pointed out that storage facilities in West Texas are below 50% capacity, with Europe and the Middle East each at 60% capacity as well. ‘Throughout the rest of the U.S., in Canada and then across the rest of the world, there’s still a lot of capacity out there for storage,’ [Kayrros market strategist Ted] Hall said. ‘Tanks are relatively full and have been filling, but there’s still a lot of a lot of room to grow globally.’ So long as major production cuts don’t happen while capacity remains, the price of oil will remain tied significantly to how much storage is left. ‘Based on what’s gone on the past week, there’s certainly a chance that we’ll see more breakdowns based on really unique financial moments related to the financial contracts in crude,’ Hall added.” Oil prices could remain under pressure, according to satellite imagery analysis, CNBC, 24 April 2020.

“With a sizable contraction anticipated, the current consensus expectation is for a negative 4% reading. Economists at ING are more pessimistic, looking at the destruction in retail as they forecast a 6% dive in productivity. Retail activity outside of groceries has practically collapsed and manufacturing surveys have reported plummeting activity. Given this situation, we look for the economy to have contracted 6% annualised in Q1 with much worse to come in 2Q.” The Dow Is Eerily Calm – But Next Week Could Be Menacingly Volatile, CCN, 24 April 2020.
Bloomberg-250420 “product that the state-run Bank of China dubbed Yuan You Bao, or Crude Oil Treasure.. branches posted ads on Wechat.. ‘Crude oil is cheaper than water’.. The physical settlement for the benchmark WTI takes place at Cushing, Oklahoma. When storage tanks there fill up, the price on the expiring contract can plunge and become disconnected from the global market. With demand evaporating, inventories at Cushing were soaring. In March and April, they climbed 60% to just under 60 million barrels, out of a total working capacity of 76 million – and analysts reckon much of the remaining space is already earmarked.. ‘The trading at settlement mechanism failed. It shows the fragility of the WTI market, which is not as big as people think’.. Prices in the U.S. physical market, set by reference to the WTI settlement, also plunged, with some refiners and pipeline companies posting prices to their suppliers as low as minus $54 a barrel.. The bank had a total position of about 1.4 million barrels of oil, or 1,400 contracts, according to a person familiar with the matter. It wound up having to pay about 400 million yuan ($56 million) to settle the contracts.. a new wave of selling that swept across oil markets. On Tuesday, the June WTI contract plunged by 68% to a low of just $6.50. And this time it was not limited to U.S. contracts: Brent futures also plunged, hitting a 20-year low of $15.98 on Wednesday, driving the price of Russian, Middle Eastern and West African oil that is priced relative to it to levels near zero.. ‘suspicion of market manipulation or a flawed new computer model’.. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.. exploring.. whether the storage capacity data posted by the U.S. Energy Information Administration accurately reflected the actual availability of space.. CME [Group Inc, which owns the oil-futures exchange] argues.. market working efficiently.. ‘We witnessed history’.. brokerage PVM. ‘For the sake of oil-market stability,” this “should not be allowed to happen again'” The 20 Minutes That Broke the U.S. Oil Market, Bloomberg, 25 April + Icahn Bought Cheap Oil in Monday’s Plummet to Historic Lows, 24 April Ref. Icahn Enterprises Wikipedia + What’s Next for Global Oil Prices?: The Industry May Shut Down , Bloomberg, 26 April 2020.
“The implosion of crude oil markets in the past week holds a mirror to the broader distress in the U.S. and global economy. Social distancing measures imposed on consumers and business shutdowns enforced to combat the spread of the coronavirus pandemic have led to a collapse in international trade and travel. Gasoline and jet fuel prices have sunk as a result leading to crude oil inventories rapidly filling the available storage space. The lockdowns have also led to a slump in business revenues and consumer spending, causing mass unemployment in the U.S. not seen since the 1930s, at least temporarily. The issue for business earnings, economic growth and stock market values is that the U.S. is more dependent on consumer spending than some other economies.. ‘It shows us that the reality of demand destruction in the economy is more dire than what other risk asset prices, particularly U.S. equity prices, reflect’.. The stock market may have shrugged off the oil slump though in part because the direct hit from low oil prices is limited for Wall Street. The overall share of the energy sector in U.S. equity and even in corporate bond markets is minimal, and many fund managers have steered clear of the industry due to the challenging economics of crude production and the growing adoption of more carbon-friendly investment approaches in the U.S. and abroad. Energy represents less than 3% of the overall S&P 500 index, and around 12% of the index for sub investment-grade corporate bonds.. ” Could the crude oil market bust spell trouble for high-flying U.S. stocks?, MarketWatch, 25 April.
“The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures expiring in May plunged 321%, to -$40.32 a barrel, the lowest level ever recorded” Oil plunges 321% into negative territory for the first time ever as demand evaporates, Markets Insider, 20 April 2020 – WTI:
Date, Closing Price, Open, Daily High, Daily Low
05/04/2020 20.39 19.11 21.42 18.05
05/01/2020 19.78 19.04 20.48 18.07
04/30/2020 18.84 15.64 19.44 15.45
04/29/2020 15.06 13.35 16.78 12.67
04/28/2020 12.34 12.96 13.69 10.07
04/27/2020 12.78 16.84 16.98 11.88
04/24/2020 16.94 16.78 17.97 15.64
04/23/2020 16.50 14.20 18.26 13.35
04/22/2020 13.78 16.18 10.26
04/21/2020 10.01 -14.00 13.86 -16.74
04/20/2020 -37.63 17.73 17.85 -40.32
04/17/2020 18.27 20.00 20.22 17.31
‘There is no reason to be bailing out Middle Eastern overproduction’: Analysts break down how to prevent further oil price volatility, Markets Insider, 25 April 2020 – Brent:
Date, Closing Price, Open, Daily High, Daily Low
05/05/2020 30.97 28.10 32.06 27.77
05/04/2020 27.20 26.10 28.08 25.50
05/01/2020 26.44 26.95 27.88 25.76
04/30/2020 25.27 22.87 25.76 22.87
04/29/2020 22.54 20.66 23.88 20.53
04/29/2020 22.54 20.66 23.88 20.53
04/28/2020 20.46 19.90 21.29 18.73
04/27/2020 19.99 21.55 21.91 19.11
04/24/2020 21.44 21.93 22.70 20.50
04/23/2020 21.33 20.89 23.22 20.07
04/22/2020 20.37 20.23 22.45 15.98
04/21/2020 19.33 26.33 26.50 17.51
04/20/2020 25.57 28.05 28.25 25.37
“Brent crude oil is at its lowest level in 17 years.. The US exports roughly 4 million barrels of oil per day, but much of that outflow will fade as Saudi Arabia and Russia undercut US pricing. Mizuho [Securities]’s analysis pegs the US’s spare capacity at 273 million barrels and estimates the tanks could top out in as soon as four months.. negative prices could become a reality if the US can’t build new storage at the pace of its inventory buildup.. The oil-price war kicked off March 6, when Russia declined to lower production. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries had hoped to curb supply as the coronavirus outbreak pummeled oil demand around the world. Russia’s move prompted retaliation from Saudi Arabia in the form of massive price cuts, igniting a race to claw more market share” The oil market’s threats combine 9/11 with the financial crisis – and could turn prices negative, analyst says, Markets Insider, 18 March 2020.
“U.S. market history points to a final bottom in August” Stocks will revisit their coronavirus crash low, and here’s when to expect it, MarketWatch, 11 April 2020.
“We have clearly gone to full scale day-to-day market management crisis, and as we said when we first called for negative prices, the physical reality of oil is that it is difficult to handle, volatile, potentially polluting, and actually useless without a refinery. If you had a stinking barrel of oil in your backyard, would you pay someone $100/bbl to take it away? Yes, and you would probably be relieved you were not charged $300/bbl,” Oil could hit negative $100 per barrel next month, according to one analyst, Markets Insider, 22 April 2020.
“The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported last Wednesday that U.S. crude inventories rose 15 million barrels for the week ended April 17 to 518.6 million barrels. That marked a 13th straight weekly climb and followed a record weekly increase of 19.2 million barrels a week earlier.. January 2021 CLG21 contract trading near $29.37 on Monday or still well below the $54 per barrel levels of mid-February that already were viewed as a threat to the viability of some weaker players” Here’s why oil majors may struggle to find bargains in the shale patch, MarketWatch, 27 April 2020.
“The United States Oil Fund (USO) that was responsible for last Monday’s oil crash into negative territory is once again shaking up oil markets, and WTI is now down more than 21% on the day. The USO Fund’s administration, USCF, announced on Monday that it intends to sell off all of its WTI contracts for June delivery—that’s all its front-month contracts that the fund was designed to invest in. Instead, the fund will now focus on futures contracts that are further out. The USO’s breakdown will now be comprised of 30% in the July contract, 15% each in the August, September, October, and December contracts, and 10% in the June 2021 contract. The June 2020 contract fell $3.85 on Monday to $13.09 by 3:52 p.m. EDT. Meanwhile, the July contract is trading $5 higher, and the August contract $8 higher at $21.47. The last time the USO fund shook up the oil market was one week ago today, the last day before the May 2020 futures contract for WTI expired. What set the disastrous events in motion was traders wishing to exit their positions before the contract expired. The USO, which would be unable to accept delivery of physical barrels of oil, headed for the exit, but found few willing buyers. This time around, the USO fund is pulling out of all its near-term contracts over the course of the next few days, sending oil prices reeling once again. The shift away from front-month contracts will amount to dumping 20% of its $3.6 billion portfolio over the next few days, Financial Times reports, citing a regulatory filing by USO.” World’s Largest Oil Fund Is Once Again Crashing Crude Markets, OilPrice.com, 27 April 2020.

Cast ye not the first stone, lest it become avalanche — Gospel of John, chapter 8, verses 3–7.*

Reverend Purdie, Cashmere Presbyterian Church, October 2018

Reverend Purdie, Cashmere Presbyterian Church, October 2018

2018 is the year, five years after it began, that the Cashmere Residents’ Emergency Support Team (CREST) got taken down. For repair, we’d hope. Though that is uncertain. Bringing certainty will be wresting the great weight, of false witness heaped upon CREST, off of it. Stone by stone, traced back to the throwing hand, demanding withdrawal, exposing rich hypocrisy.

In February, the new business manager at Cashmere Presbyterian chose to crush CREST (a local community volunteer initiative, invited within church walls) to rob CREST role and finances, instead of collaborating through it – as had been the previous minister’s clear promise. This action was downright nasty, largely fraudulent.

The new minister chose not to support the CREST Red Cross project and community lunch event, as led by the Cashmere Residents’ Association (CRA), wanting leadership of community response direct from the church instead. This action reveals fraudulent deceit. It kicked CRA initiative out. It took advantage, to profit from several years’ honest, hard volunteer work at this ‘community hub’. And it first had to destroy its trusting partner: broad, stable, good open leadership at the CRA.

Despite having been part of deciding the 18 February public event date and supporting council permit application, Reverend Silvia Purdie turned around to attack the CREST coordination, with venom, to get at the funds. No negotiation would be entertained on the high price Purdie wanted for church help with the catering and hosting: wholly inappropriate as it was a budgeted CRA activity booked with the church. But hungry eyes were set on a prize. If CREST coordination stood between Purdie and use of the CRA-raised Red Cross funds, then CREST coordination would have to go – which Purdie precipitated with aggressive and false accusations of project impropriety.

Further self-interest dove-tailed into Purdie’s, each enabling the other.

The CRA old guard had undeclared axes to grind. They had previously volunteered then fallen out with the church, over an heritage issue and where their works record was weak. Vengeance was nigh and CREST became instant brunt of it. Aggressive accusations of project impropriety were repeated, though later disproved, to deprive the church of resilience infrastructure investment. Merge of conflicted interests this way, robbing good community service cruelly, exposed the CRA old guard as blindly corrupt: narrowly venal; a sad Purdie match. The CRA funding oversight of CREST was rapidly shut down.

Against these great odds, the CRA-CREST 18 Feb 2018 preparedness exercise event carried through – though savagely and needlessly compromised in scale of outcomes (e.g. our community was forced off ‘our space’ – Cashmere Green – and onto church land, making cause for criticism): facebook.com/events/183405702246003/permalink/192092061377367

180218 would-be-CREST community lunch

180218 would-be-CREST community lunch


CRA-CREST 180218 community lunch event poster

CRA-CREST 180218 community lunch event poster


The agendas to destroy CREST, or CRA leadership of it at the church, within Cashmere community, were only just gathering steam. Division and heat would only grow. These are not finished yet.

At stake is potentially increased official support, for community activity in the area, which is generally very tied up: captured and unavailable, in fact.

And so it was when ‘Cashmere was compensated’, eight month’s later, through council funding of Purdie to run the “Cashmere Carnival” – in the space and with the permit that Purdie had denied to CREST (to line herself up for new event funds, eight months later).

Funny, that. It confirms the adage that ‘money will only be spent in Cashmere if it is spent on promoting the Labour Party’. And so it was on 28 October, when all the area Labour politicians rolled out. Smiling and laughing, enjoying the big joke – upon Cashmere itself. Making a very clear point: that Cashmere would be done to, and never doing on its own, ‘ad infinitum’.

'Cashmere' Carnivàle 281018

‘Cashmere’ Carnivàle 281018

For this was a turn out of Presbyterian parishioners, mostly, from the wider south city and not locals. The church was actually proud of this, that it (by Dr David Troughton) could run up the CREST banner, on this occasion, with no real input from Cashmere residents’ organising at all. The coup to shed CRA, from its CREST planning property, work and opportunity, was well underway.

The dirty Labour-Presbyterian council link to undermine residents is confirmed in the Purdie-Clearwater joy, at placing themselves at the heart of faux Cashmere, on 28/10/18: IMG_20181028_142438-crop4

Faux Cashmere Carnival 281018

Faux Cashmere Carnival 281018


It is astounding, the sheer waste of resource pumped into this two-hour ‘public’ jaunt, to only make the point of ‘who’s in charge’ of all Cashmere community funded project space, to ‘ice the cake’ of Cashmere-CREST independence demolition. Appalling. In great need of being exposed.
Faux Cashmere Carnival 281018

Two-hour, faux Cashmere Carnival, 281018


Rev. Purdie enjoys the splash of rate-payer cash, yet behind it, the Labour Melanie Coker face still 'smells a rat'

Rev. Purdie enjoys the splash of rate-payer cash, yet behind it, the Labour Melanie Coker face still ‘smells a rat’.


Also sighted present on 28/10/18, at this rates-funded jolly, was Labour Port Hills MP Ruth Dyson.

Error in Cashmere Fire Report, re 15.02.17: “Leona described to me how she sat at her window all night, watching trees burst into flame in the valley above Princess Margaret Hospital” – facebook.com/1434260603455144/posts/cashmere-fire-reportfrom-silvia-purdie-minister-cashmere-presbyterian-church-chr/1847315355482998/ – Fire was on Worsleys Spur, above Cracroft Valley, nowhere near Princess Margaret Hospital. And the message – “today, after the fire, our church will care for our people, be there for others. We’re part of a good network and response systems. I’m thinking a community BarBQ would be good. But there’s not really much we can do” – casts intentional slight upon CREST, which did activate its response hub at the church that next day, on 16.02.17 around control of the fire, lost homes, evacuations and very worried uncertainty. This attack upon CREST follows that from Mrs Purdie’s first arrival at her church post, when she moved CREST’s small store of equipment from its designated place at the church, showing contempt of clear labelling not to move it, and a $50 item (the CREST banner spike) has been missing since that time. Unresolved angst? A hazard in itself. So one year later, rotten Labour-Presbyterian take-down of CRA-CREST began in earnest; in events detailed above.

No CREST partners that had committed to 18.02.18 Red Cross exercise event saw it through – not the church, nor the school, nor CRA committee, and Rotary were inactive with us then. So CREST could not activate as designed to, though volunteers committed to CREST were fully capable of carrying event response to success – with new Business Association invited help. It is strategic lying to say CREST could function normally from that time on until now (this is yet unresolved). Repairing the CRA-Presbyterian relationship is very first order, for CREST to be able to continue authentically. Anything moved without that is plain deceit.

Bellowing Clearwater misinformation for Labour is: https://hail.to/cashmere-primary-te-pae-kereru/publication/EIr27V2/article/Q44WTff – where all partner parties absented from agreed CREST 180218 event, so have no valid vote for bringing such fake news about. Simply dangerous.

CREST is formally suspended, for safety and repair, as it must be – see COMMUNITY NOTICES.

If people knew that, in approaching a church, there was risk of being beaten up and robbed, they really would not go there. This has been the Cashmere residents’ group experience, to learn from.

To recap, Reverend Purdie made a grab for the maximum possible Red Cross CREST generator and water tank fund amount, to be diverted into her church consolidated fund to run a public event, contrary to the facts that CRA had raised the fund to run the event and all the related items were strictly budgeted. The concluding, reporting-to-community event, was not the main purpose – as the minister insisted it be. So Purdie attacked the Red Cross project coordinator, to undermine it all and ultimately stop the generator and water tank purchases from being completed. Shame!!!

From this whiff of funding, some church leaders now push to complete Mrs Purdie’s attack upon the residents’ leadership of CREST, for travelling on without us. But significant investment has already been made there, and this grab falls far beside the point – of serving Cashmere residents, in readiness. Of being able to connect Cashmere residents, in our own interest, in an emergency, without dirty politics.

CREST had formed at the church in 2013 because: a. the door was open; b. an inviting Community Centre sign stood outside; c. Christchurch city council (Cr Clearwater) had refused Cashmere its own community centre, at the time of Cashmere Masonic Lodge building sale; d. conversations had been taking place about a community response hub in the church facility, since its 2009 upgrade, between its managers and city council CDEM**; and e. because of interest in preparedness by CRA members post-earthquakes, that moved to utilise the opportunity of meeting space to organise CREST and start the Cashmere response planning. CREST, through overwhelming failure of institutional support on 18.2.2018 plan exercise day, has had to be withdrawn from service – temporarily? Reverend Purdie caused that, with equally destructive help:

Cashmere Residents’ Association (CRA)
Note, uploaded reports to Companies Office (search # 697181): CRA Financial Report AGM 2017 and CRA Financial Report 31 Feb 2018 – “I / we Leona Murahidy (Secretary) certify that the annual statement attached has been approved by the members of a general meeting held on 21st day of March 2018 for 2017.” – As with the dates referenced, and the disappeared $9,312.50 CREST Red Cross project balance revealed in comparison here, everything about Murahidy ‘management’ in Cashmere is fictional. Unaccountable. Too often dishonest. Of extreme harm.

23 May 2018, a CRA Special General Meeting did happen, that had capacity to make the above declaration true. But before that, on 21 March, a closed and domesticated ‘committee’ meeting would have taken place. This (basically illegal) role confusion sums up the huge liability Leona Murahidy is to Cashmere community organising. Devastation of constructive and viable systems lay in its wake. The year has mostly been a write-off, due to this. Someone, our community, has to bring the CRA back on track. Or suspend it, for safety and regrouping, adding vision for change.

The October 2018 CRA AGM put this committee on a very short leash, until February 2019. Officer written reports were read but not given out or made public yet. Read an AGM review here. CRA has run outside of its Constitution all year – by Associate member illegal votes, etc. etc.

Ms Murahidy and family/cohorts are running a private club – in the name of Cashmere Residents’ Association – to further very particular, less than community, interests. When a CRA committee member pointed out that the 2017 financial report needed to be uploaded to the Companies Office, but after membership endorsement through a Special General Meeting therefore due, the response was instant and unconstitutional expulsion – and then the false financial reporting. Completely sackable offences by Murahidy and crew; looking prosecutable. – Not a transparent organisation or responsibly open to all as it should be: true victim of Murahidy-Labour ‘activism’.

Summary
The link between all points of wreckage done to Cashmere and its sound resilience program (up until this year) is that of Labour affiliation or alliance by the above main actors. No question. These are public figures who have generated an absolute shambles out of nothing, to advance their own Labour-loyalist grubby career agendas. Performances have been corrupt. Caustically jealous and vengeful. Acquisitive.

The above incidents speak to the lengths that the Labour Party network will go, to manipulate communities, to assert outright authority over them, and to waste any measure of good value in building up social hegemony this way.

There must be political neutrality for good community organising to thrive. Cashmere, its Residents’ Association and Emergency Support Team, to succeed, must claim this back through thoughtful shared action. It is to our collective loss and significant risk otherwise.

Kia kaha

* N.B. Those deep in religion do not understand religion.

** CDEM = Civil Defence Emergency Management
e.g. see Nationwide test of Emergency Mobile Alert 25 November 2018.

Systemic failure in New Zealand emergency response is confirmed by repeat avoidable tragedies in Christchurch, unmitigated disasters under National-led government. Full responsibility lies with them and with everyone who has been selfishly and ignorantly voting support for corrupt sheer incompetence in central and local government: a regional despoliation shared between greedy empire-builders of Beehive and town hall.

With an eye – they happily admitted at the time – only for increased irrigation water for dairy profits from Canterbury, John Key, Gerry Brownlee and Bill English – backed by Christchurch and Canterbury mayors – have completely dropped the ball in every aspect of good governance in the region, since they destroyed its democratically elected council in April 2010.

Since then, because of this, many people have been unnecessarily dying due to the fragmentation of effective civil defence that the central and district governments have collectively caused. That is abysmal and completely unacceptable performance. Heads must roll. Starting today. For public safety.

The lazy, corrupt, ignorant incompetence that characterises New Zealand government has to stop: it is deadly at fault. The same confused fire-cordon-and-response failings that cost lives in the levelled Canterbury Television building on 22-23 February 2011 re-appeared on 14 February 2017 in the Port Hills fires.[1] The failing is in leadership and co-ordination, not that of hands-on responders: a communication and collaboration failure in the back office, from the top down. It is a man-made sabotage of effective regional response that John Key et. al. never imagined was going to be needed or could bite them so very, very hard. Now it very much has. The pattern of functional decay is thoroughly exposed.

News media could stop deflecting attention away from National’s gross mis-leadership and culpable manslaughters in Canterbury. Or remain accessories. Stop promoting self-advancing, opportunist and incompetent mayors.

Ask how the CTV building fire cordon was managed in February 2011. Was it effective in Police hands, as prescribed by an emergency site that had fatality? Or were fire crews excessively stretched without backup, then investigated as blameworthy? Were the fire responders made scapegoats, then and in February 2017?

Ask especially what action council took to check building safety and to cordon off hazards after 4 September 2010. None was apparent as a loud sigh of relief led into an ill-fated Boxing Day Sale, to satisfy city retailers, instead. Criminal negligence and liability rests here and instead we see knighthood reported? Not good enough by far.

Without remedial action at the governance level, New Zealand’s coming grand disaster – the Alpine Fault movement and its follow-ons – will only be all the more lethally tragic. Proposals to centralise emergency response are to save who time instead of getting on an aeroplane? And what happens then when Wellington gets badly hit? No confidence, at all, as it is unearned yet.

Tweet summary: #Canterbury regional bungle #ECan #CDEM
National Party implicated in #CTV + #Sugarloaf avoidable deaths With districts

Action summary: What public safety requires most, without delay, is –
all communities developing skills and means to organise, represent and keep themselves safe,
National out of central government,
Labour out of local government
– monopolies are never, ever healthy or helpful.

Event overview: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Port_Hills_fires

Timeline:

Monday 13 February 2017
c4:30pm Fire broke out in Lansdowne Valley, Selwyn District, spreading rapidly.
c7pm Fire broke out on Marley’s Hill to the north, in the Christchurch City Council area.

Marleys-Lansdowne fires c9pm 130217

Marley’s Hill fire as seen from the south, above the spreading Lansdowne fire, c9pm 13 Feb 2017, in warm west wind

Scrub fire breaks out in Christchurch
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/scrub-fire-breaks-out-in-christchurch.html

Two fires on Christchurch’s Port Hills stretch fire crews, destroys house, force evacuations
“Fire Service spokeswoman Lyn Crosson.. said an area of 400 by 400 square metres was burning at Summit Rd near Marley’s Hill. At 10pm, Crosson said the fire was still burning uncontained and residents on Summit and Worsleys roads were being evacuated. ‘Crews are currently working to prevent it jumping Summit Rd,’ she said. ‘Summit Rd will remain closed for the night.'”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/89372687/large-christchurch-scrub-fire-out-of-control-second-fire-now-burning

Tuesday 14 February 2017
Not enough was done from dawn, by far, while confused officials argued jurisdiction.
Evacuation set #1 of 3 was ignored – emergency not declared, despite it already spanning two populated districts in very dry weather.

Marley's Hill 14 Feb 2017

Marley’s Hill on 14 Feb 2017, view from the north, Lansdowne smoke to the south, warm west wind continues

SDC-1. Tai Tapu/Port Hills fires – update 10.30am “Two fires are continuing to burn this morning in the Tai Tapu/Port Hills area – one in the vicinity of Early Valley Road/Lansdowne, and the other in the Marley Hill area near the Summit Road. The fires cover an area of around 700 hectares. Fire status The Early Valley Road fire started yesterday evening at around 6pm. It has since crossed Summit Road around the Kennedy’s Bush area and at some other points. It is principally being fought by air with support from ground crews. Today crews will focus on protecting structures and controlling the fire, and protecting Kennedy’s Bush. The Marley Hill fire started in a car park around 7pm last night and spread west along the Summit Road area overnight. Protection of structures and the Christchurch Adventure Park and are also a focus for fire fighting. Both fires are now being managed by one Emergency Operations Centre based at Selwyn District Council’s Rolleston Headquarters as well as on site control points… Around 24 properties were evacuated last night with evacuations remaining in place currently. Tai Tapu School was opened last night to receive evacuees but closed last night with all evacuees staying with friends and family except for one family who accommodation was arranged for. No further evacuations are anticipated to be needed currently. One house has been confirmed destroyed by the fire, with a structure destroyed and one other house slightly damaged. All affected structures are in the Lansdowne area” http://www.selwyn.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/216187/Port-Hills-fire-update-10.pdf

Port Hills fires: Photos from inside the cordon – Selwyn Rural Fire response
http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/port-hills-fire-photos-from-inside-the-cordon/

Below Marley Hill, by mid-afternoon 15.02.17, smokes billows phenomenally

Below Marley Hill, by mid-afternoon 15.02.17, smokes billows phenomenally with new flames, wind had just turned dry-easterly

Two fires rage on the Port Hills as one enters the Christchurch Adventure Park “fire retardant had been air-dropped on the top station earlier in the day. Selwyn District Council principal rural fire officer Douglas Marshall said the fire was ‘crawling through the under-matter at the bottom of the trees’ at the top of the park, and that fire crews weren’t too concerned about it causing a problem at this stage. A nearby crew is monitoring the situation. Firefighters earlier said two huge blazes in Christchurch’s Port Hills were now contained, although the battle to put them out was continuing. … The Selwyn District Council said the Marley Hill fire appeared to be largely contained on the city side of Summit Rd by 3pm. … Operations have slowed down for the night. Marshall said there was one crew monitoring the Marley Hill fire and three watching the one at Early Valley overnight. He was expecting it to be a quiet night as there was not much wind. … Twenty-four homes had to be evacuated overnight, and a group of children were among those rescued on Monday after becoming stuck near one of the fires. Selwyn principal rural fire officer Douglas Marshall said 11 helicopters and nearly 120 firefighters were working to contain the fires on Tuesday, and could be needed for another two or three days. Three two-member firefighting crews from the New Zealand Army had also been dispatched to help. ‘The second fire … [at Marleys Hill] is working around the radio mast that’s up in that area. It’s currently working down a ridge it’s probably the top end of the [Christchurch] Adventure Park area,’ Marshall said. ‘It’s not contained. It’s still burning quite strong. … A Fire Service spokesman said the Summit Rd fire had spread across 1.5 kilometres. The flames were too aggressive to battle in the dark, so firefighters working overnight concentrated on trying to stop it spreading further” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89376043/Two-fires-rage-on-the-Port-Hills-as-one-enters-the-Christchurch-Adventure-Park

2.30pm Sugarloaf helicopter crash and pilot death. Flying halted temporarily, stakes raised greatly.

Helicopter pilot dies while fighting Christchurch wild fires “Douglas Marshall, principal rural fire authority officer at the Selwyn District Council, said the accident was a tragedy. ‘Firefighting is difficult and dangerous work … our thoughts are with the deceased [person’s] family at this time.’ He said it was possible a number of pilots involved in helping to douse flames would want to stand down following the accident, and authorities were respecting that decision. In a statement, Selwyn District Emergency Management said the Marley Hill fire remains contained, although ground crews are monitoring activity along the Summit Rd. The other fire at Early Valley is also contained, but there are some spots of fire burning downhill from the ridgeline above Governors Bay and Allandale. Helicopters will continue to operate until nightfall tonight and from first light tomorrow. The area of both fires combined as estimated at about 580ha.”
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11800525

SDC-2. Tai Tapu/Port Hills fires – update 3pm “The Marley Hill fire appears to be largely contained on the city side of the Summit Road. Parts of the Early Valley Road fire have crossed the Summit Road towards Governors Bay. Current activity across both fires is focused on efforts to protect structures and prevent the fire from spreading.” http://www.selwyn.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/216188/Port-Hills-fire-update-3pm-14-Feb.pdf
SDC-3. Tai Tapu/Port Hills fires – update 6.30pm “The current situation with the fires are that the Marley Hill Fire remains contained, although ground crews are monitoring activity along the Summit Road. Significant effort put into the Early Valley fire today has resulted in it being effectively contained, although there are some spots of fire burning downhill from the ridgeline above Governors Bay and Allandale. The New Zealand Fire Service is undertaking active structure protection in this area. Helicopters will continue to operate until nightfall tonight and from first light tomorrow. No further structures have been lost beyond those reported earlier.” http://www.selwyn.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/216189/PORT-HILLS-FIRES-6pm-update-14-Feb.pdf

Wednesday 15 February 2017
Governors Bay evacuations overnight by Civil Defence; that fire contained, residents returned.
Evacuation #2 of 3 was ignored – emergency not declared.
Smoke then fire broke out in a big way in the Cashmere Valley and Port Hills south-west of Christchurch city.
Chaos had been unleashed which led to panic, mass evacuations, misinformation and terrible overnight fear.
Evacuation #3, widespread in panic and south-west Port Hills areas affected, was acted upon:
6pm A local emergency was declared jointly by the Selwyn and Christchurch mayors.

Port Hills Fires, Christchurch, Feb 15th 2017 – YouTube time-lapses, Dru Norriss

Port Hills fires: Live updates – extract
“1:00am Marley’s Hill fire escalates, as fire spreads downhill through the forest.. within 150m of Sign of the Kiwi
3:00am 700 Governors Bay and Allandale residents evacuated. Governors Bay School which is closed today
5:00am Fire seen close to the chair lift at the Christchurch Adventure Park
7:00am City council activates the Emergency Operations Centre to coordinate the welfare operation
8:00am Helicopters are filling up monsoon buckets in the Heathcote River, corner of Hoon Hay Valley Rd and Cashmere Rd
9:00am –We’ve broken its back’: Governors Bay chief fire officer Andrew Norris
9.09am Health warning over smoke
9.27am Helicopters are using water from ponds and dams on farms in the Lansdowne area to fill monsoon buckets to fight the Early Valley Rd fire. Two helicopters can be seen in the air above the fire and two others are refueling.
10.34am Conditions are fine and dry as firefighters continue to tackle fires on the Port Hills. MetService forecaster Cameron Coutts said winds were gentle, at about 17km/h, at the moment and had been blowing south west for some time. A north east change with 37km/h winds should hit the hills from about mid-afternoon, before dying down tonight
12:30pm Technicians are waiting to get access to transmitters that operate the city’s emergency services dispatch, including ambulance and police. Power was lost on Monday at the Marley Hill location and it is operating on batteries
1:56pm Power outages across the city
2:30pm: More fire service resources are being sent to the Christchurch Adventure Park, to assess if structures can be saved
3:00pm Victoria Park is being closed as thick smoke billows from the Christchurch Adventure Park
3:10pm Fire units are on their way to Worsleys Rd, Kennedy’s Bush, after reports houses are being threatened
3:15pm Fire crews are currently working to control a flare up in Worsleys Spur area in the vicinity of the Christchurch Adventure Park.
3:25pm Police are evacuating residents from homes on Worsleys Rd near Summit Rd. Three houses are under threat from the fire. A Cashmere resident described it as an ‘inferno’
3:31pm Helicopter resources are stretched and one is not available at the moment to drop water on the Christchurch Adventure Park
3:59pm Police have cordoned off Westmorland at Cashmere Rd and are urging people to prepare for an evacuation.
5:10pm Reports of residents being evacuated from the Cracroft area.
5:18pm Police have confirmed houses on Kennedys Bush Rd and its intersecting streets are being evacuated. Residents are heading to Pioneer Stadium
5:28pm Fire service has just issued a directive for all vehicles to get off Dyers Pass Rd
5:32pm Fire fighters say the blaze will ‘punch’ its way out of McVicars Plantation and hit the first corner of Dyers Pass Rd below the Sign of Kiwi before dark
6:00pm A command centre has been set up at the Sign of the Takahe
6:15pm The mayors of Christchurch and Selwyn have made a joint decision to declare states of emergency in the areas
6:22pm Fire fighters battling flames at the Christchurch Adventure Park only have about an hours worth of water left. Crews are scrambling to get more water to them
6:41pm There are unconfirmed reports that Pentre Tce, by the Sign of the Takahe, is being evacuated
6:50pm Cashmere Rd is now closed from Kaiwara St to Kennedys Bush Rd due to evacuations in Lower Cashmere, Cracroft, Westmorland and Kennedys Bush
9:39pm Fire fighters at the Sign of the Takahe cordon are telling residents above the landmark to leave their homes as the fire spreads, with reports it has moved into Victoria Park
9:44pm Canterbury Regional Controller Neville Reilly has been deployed to the Christchurch Civil Defence Emergency Operations Centre to head the overall response to the fires
9:55pm Authorities issue urgent evacuations: ‘Residents in the area from the Sign of the Takehe to Victoria Park should evacuate their homes immediately. Authorities are advising that the fire has crossed Dyers Pass Road into Victoria Park. Police and the Defence Force are evacuating properties in the area. We are also evacuating the south side of Cashmere Road to Kennedy’s Bush Road, and to Hoon Hay Valley Road'”
http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/live-update-day/

SDC-4. Tai Tapu/Port Hills fires – update 10am “Overnight increased fire activity was reported around midnight in the area above Governors Bay. Multiple fire units were called in from around the region to assist in firefighting and protecting properties. At approximately 3am fire and police evacuated around 107 residents from the Allandale area near Governors Bay, due to the fire risk. The Christchurch City Council has activated an Emergency Operations Centre to coordinate the welfare operation which includes a welfare centre at the Governors Bay school.” http://www.selwyn.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0019/216190/Port-Hills-fires-update-10am-15-Feb.pdf
SDC-5. States of Emergency-declared in Christchurch and Selwyn “The Mayors of Christchurch City and Selwyn District have made a joint decision to declare States of Emergency in their respective areas in relation to the Port Hills fires. The declaration follows the evacuation this afternoon of 200-300 residents as the fire shifted closer to residential properties. It is no longer just a significant rural fire on the boundary of the city. It is now a city issue with suburbs being evacuated. Christchurch Mayor Lianne Dalziel says a city response is also required to ensure the safety and welfare of residents… Selwyn District Mayor Sam Broughton says, ‘we acknowledge there has been a huge effort responding to the fire to date, however this declaration recognises the seriousness of the situation, and this will allow us to provide all the assistance necessary to respond to the unfolding situation. The district and the city must work together to manage the situation and address the different challenges the fire is creating in each area.'” http://www.selwyn.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/216191/States-of-Emergency-declared-CHCH-Selwyn-15-Feb.pdf
SDC-6. Port Hills/ Tai Tapu fire update: Residents should be prepared to evacuate – update 7.15pm “The Marley Hill fire has spread extensively down Worsley Spur, causing extensive vegetation burning in the Christchurch Adventure Park. The fire is approaching the residential area of Westmoreland.” http://www.selwyn.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/216192/Port-Hills-fire-update-7.15pm-Wed-15-Feb.pdf

Port Hills fires: Some south west suburbs evacuate
http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/westmorland-evacuate-as-fire-spreads/

Port Hills fire: Homes destroyed, more residents evacuating
http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/emergency/more-evacuations-as-fire-rages-in-christchurchs-port-hills/

Homes destroyed, families evacuated as Christchurch fires spread “More than 1000 residents have fled their homes and at least eight properties have burned to the ground as a huge wild fire rages on in Christchurch. Terrified residents ran clutching precious belongings or bundled children into cars as the black smoke ballooned from the flames tearing through tinder dry scrub land. Several fires have now merged into one which is threatening dense residential housing. The blaze is estimated to have scorched more than 1850ha of land and is still growing. A state of emergency was declared in Christchurch and Selwyn, the Defence Force was deployed and health authorities issued warnings to vulnerable residents as black smoke drifted across the city. Civil Defence revised down the number of homes destroyed on Worsley Spur tonight to at least three after earlier issuing a statement saying 40 homes had been lost. A spokeswoman said the error was the result of misinformation being given to a rural fire officer and was revised following a ‘correction from the police on earlier information’. The incorrect figure was widely reported earlier tonight by media and made it into some copies of the morning Herald. Little information was available on how the error occurred but hard questions will no doubt be asked of authorities in the morning” http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11801058

Live: Fires continue to rage through Christchurch’s Port Hills
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/christchurch-helicopter-s-stood-down-from-firefighting.html

State of Emergency declared “Christchurch Mayor Lianne Dalziel and Selwyn District Mayor Sam Broughton made a joint decision to declare the State of Emergency. It follows the evacuation of 200-300 residents as the fire shifted closer to residential properties in the south-west. Minister of Defence Gerry Brownlee has announced New Zealand Defence Force personnel have been asked to assist with fighting the fires. Ms Dalziel said a city response was also required to ensure the safety and welfare of residents. ‘Christchurch needs a multi-agency response given the seriousness of the situation. We need to be able to draw on all the resources possible to give our residents confidence in the ongoing response.’ Mr Broughton said: ‘We acknowledge there has been a huge effort responding to the fire to date, however this declaration recognises the seriousness of the situation, and this will allow us to provide all the assistance necessary to respond to the unfolding situation. The district and the city must work together to manage the situation and address the different challenges the fire is creating in each area.'” http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/state-of-emergency-declared-city/

Editorial: Why did it take so long to declare state of emergency? “The terrifying change on Wednesday afternoon, which saw the situation deteriorate rapidly, shows there can be no room for complacency or confusion among those in charge of dealing with the emergency… Civil Defence Minister Gerry Brownlee expressed frustration that a state of emergency was not declared earlier by the Selwyn District Council, the lead agency in fighting the fires, or the Christchurch City Council, within the boundaries of which much of the burning land is situated. The emergency was eventually declared on Wednesday evening when flames threatened city suburbs, then destroyed more houses and forced mass evacuations. It was obvious to anyone that the situation was getting worse not better, when the amount of smoke rising from the hills expanded enormously. Questions will now need to be asked whether the Selwyn Rural Fire Authority acted decisively enough and quickly enough, deploying all available resources. For instance, it seems that tankers, equipment and personnel had been on standby at Burnham Military Camp, but could not move, by law, while the army waited for a request from the civil authorities that was slow in coming. Criticism of emergency services at the height of a crisis is easy to make and often ill-advised. However, it is clear that there are lessons to be learned from this emergency, and the various authorities will need to take an honest and hard look at themselves when it is over… people deserve the best possible leadership, and bosses who will take timely and decisive action to make their task easier.”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/opinion/89454212/Editorial-Why-did-it-take-so-long-to-declare-state-of-emergency Comment RT – “Yes, it was the neutralisation of regional government by district and central government in cahoots, that left hills residents so dangerously out on a limb. Without that unseemly plot, collaboration and resources could have been swung in, through ECan CDEM services, from first light on the Tuesday to stop the fires cold. Shameful top-level performances, yet again: so ready to blame front-line fire-fighters, as at the CTV building collapse. Beyond shame, a deregulating City and Beehive are culpable!”

Port Hills on dark 150217

South Christchurch Port Hills, on dark, 15 Feb 2017 – Sugarloaf, Victoria Park and Worsleys Spur all fire-involved, left to right

Thursday 16 February 2017
After lower Sugarloaf had flared it soon went dark, with Victoria Park more flame-free overnight. But a day of downgraded hazard was needed for assurance that the fire was burning out up there, while it burnt on more strongly in the Adventure Park valley below and with the western fire areas more at risk under prevailing easterly wind conditions. A day of extended, thus exaggerated, panic pending better official reports from the fire fronts that were slow in coming – very formal conservatism characterises response from start to finish. ‘Safety first’.

Port Hills fires: Live updates – extract
“12.59am The Port Hill fires have now merged into one, developing significantly during the afternoon and into this evening. At least three additional houses have been destroyed in the area of Worsleys Rd
2am Six people from Pentworth Pl in Westmorland have been evacuated and are sleeping over at Te Hapua, which has been opened for evacuated residents, along with Nga Hau e Wha Marae. It appears most people that have been evacuated have found their own accommodation. In addition to rural fire staff, a group of 86 made up of 50 New Zealand Police and 36 New Zealand Defence Force personnel are working overnight on the Port Hills Fire response. They are doing evacuations, joint patrols and reassuring people in the areas impacted by the fires
3.25am There are still some very active fire fronts up on the Port Hills, but not as many as there were prior to midnight. A large number of fire crews have been on the ground working hard to protect properties overnight. A drop in fire activity can also be attributed to a decrease in temperature and a rise in humidity. Helicopters are expected to start an aerial attack at first light. Approximately 400 households have been evacuated in the areas around Victoria Park/Dyers Pass Road, Worsleys Rd, Westmorland and Kennedys Bush
4.55am Police are now evacuating residents downhill of the Sign of the Takahe on Dyers Pass Rd as far as and including Kiteroa Pl and Pentre Tce. Residents will be contact directly by police who are in the area now knocking on doors. If you feel unsafe, you are advised to self-evacuate. Police have continued to express concerns about traffic and people in the area and directed all non-residents to stay away, keeping it clear for emergency services
6.06am More than 1000 residents have fled their homes and at least eight properties have burned to the ground as a huge wild fire rages on in Christchurch. Several fires have now merged into one which is threatening dense residential housing. The blaze is estimated to have scorched more than 1850ha of land and is still growing.
6.24am The latest report is the fire has spread to the harbour side of Sugar Loaf. Evacuations are continuing on the Port Hills with a total of 450 properties officially evacuated. Others have self-evacuated as the fire spread overnight
6.44am Helicopter crews are starting to rejoin firefighting efforts. Aerial teams could be seen leaving the Christchurch Airport area at daybreak on Thursday
6.46am Civil Defence Minister Gerry Brownlee will arrive in Christchurch on Thursday morning. He has been critical of how long it took for a State of Emergency to be declared and questioned why rural firefighters were in charge of a fire inside the city boundaries.
6.55am Around 126 homes remain without power due to the fire
7.30am Broadcast provider Kordia has activated its disaster recovery plan as the fire engulfs land around Sugar Loaf. It has activated its disaster recovery plan and is transporting spare equipment to Christchurch
7.52am Military help for Christchurch is on standby – but hasn’t yet been asked for. Lieutenant Colonel Rob Loftus said almost 40 Defence Force personnel are on the ground so far. The Defence Force has been helping out with evacuations. Civil Defense minister Gerry Brownlee said it is up to the Fire Service to ask for further help – he is concerned they’ll leave it too late, Newstalk ZB reports
9:22am The Civil Defence bunker at Parliament is being activated
11.19am The impact of the fires on people is starting to be felt. Canterbury Civil Defence Controller John Mackie said they received a report of five incidents from health services. He said health and welfare services are also turning their attention to the psycho-social impact of the fires
11:32am More fire appliances are being called to the Christchurch Adventure Park to help battle the fire
12:12pm Firefighters in the Christchurch Adventure Park have setup monitoring stations at the base of the chairlift and cafe as a contingency plan
12:15pm Flames 6 to 8 metres tall are threatening a house at Kennedys Bush. Two fire crews are on the way
12.17pm Fire crews on Worsleys Rd have lost water pressure and are attempting to get it back
12.45pm Prime Minister Bill English and Gerry Brownlee are in the air surveying the fire scene
4:29pm Firefighters are calling for more water tankers up Kennedys Bush Rd to assist fighting the fire. They have asked for 4WD vehicle specifically. Firefighters have noticed another flare up
7:24pm Cordons remain in place with police and Defence Force staff patrolling
10:09pm ‘While there are still areas burning out of control, the fire is contained within the 2075 hectare area.'”
http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/live-update-day/

From the archives: A tale of two boys
http://www.noted.co.nz/currently/profiles/from-the-archives-a-tale-of-two-boys/

Port Hills fire: 11 homes destroyed, 1000 people evacuated
http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/emergency/port-hills-fire-800-people-evacuated-many-ordered-out-of-bed-overnight/

Christchurch Port Hills fires: What you need to know on Thursday
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89462014/christchurch-port-hills-fires-what-you-need-to-know

Watch: Christchurch wakes to a city ablaze
http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/watch-christchurch-wakes-to-a-city-ablaze/

Map: The extent of the blaze
http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/the-extent-of-the-blaze/

New video shows devastation at Christchurch Adventure Park
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/new-video-shows-devastation-at-christchurch-adventure-park.html

Mayors defend actions after Minister Brownlee criticism “The two mayors met with Brownlee today and afterward Dalziel defended the handling of the fire, saying she and Broughton had declared the state of emergency to ensure people took it seriously when told to evacuate rather than because of the need for more resources. ‘We did that together not because it was needed for any resources to be brought to bear but because it was to give people confidence that when the Police told them they were to evacuate, they were to evacuate: this is an emergency.’ She said there were already sufficient resources in place to fight the fire and the state of emergency was called within an hour and a half of the mayors being advised people were being evacuated”
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11802069

Friday 17 February 2017

Editorial: Lack of information on Port Hills fires excruciating “Some will say that when a crisis of this magnitude hits, people need to get on with dealing with it, rather than telling people what is going on. This is misguided. Reliable information is crucial in dangerous times – to calm public anxiety, to mobilise resources from within the community, to tell people to move when they need to, and to warn people to stay away at times. … Fear and hysteria are more likely when people are ill-informed. In Christchurch this week, the state of emergency was declared 48 hours after the fires started, after mass evacuations began and only after a serious escalation of the blazes which might have been foreseen in a worst-case-scenario risk assessment. Civil Defence guidelines state that states of emergency should be declared ‘early rather than late’ – advice which seems to have been ignored in this case. No-one can doubt the bravery and dedication of those on the front lines, but there seems to have been blocked lines of communication at the strategic level. Maybe part of the problem is that New Zealand, a country of just 4.5 million people, has multiple layers of authorities and agencies with sometimes conflicting roles. The fires have burned across the boundaries of Christchurch City and Selwyn District, which is why the state of emergency was declared jointly by mayors Lianne Dalziel and Sam Broughton. How long did it take them to co-ordinate that decision? Could a single authority have done it more quickly? Brownlee had the power to declare an emergency himself, as did the wider-area Civil Defence Emergency Management Group, but they did not do so. The Selwyn Rural Fire Authority was the lead agency in fighting the fires, which seemed incongruous once houses in Christchurch city suburbs began to burn. There has to be a swifter and simpler way of dealing with emergencies, and in letting people know how to react. That needs to be one of the lessons learned from these fires.” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/89503846/editorial-lack-of-information-on-port-hills-fires-excrutiating

Civil Defence Minister believes state of emergency should’ve been declared earlier
https://www.maoritelevision.com/news/regional/civil-defence-minister-believes-state-emergency-shouldve-been-declared-earlier

Port Hills fire: ‘Impact is the biggest in NZ history’ “The fire broke out on Monday night and was at it’s peak on Wednesday afternoon when two huge columns of smoke started to build, intensifying the flames and pushing crews to their limit. ‘A lot of people are asking why we weren’t putting water on it while it was burning away,’ said Rural Fire sector boss Phil Crutchley. ‘We were looking at 100,000 kilowatts of temperature per square metre – any water we put on that just evaporated. We just pulled back, it was just too dangerous. There was nothing we could do that would have stopped that.’ As a result, homes were lost and other properties damaged – but he made no apology. The columns had the power of two atomic bombs behind them and there was nothing on earth that could have been done to take the guts out of them.”
http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/port-hills-fire-impact-is-the-biggest-in-nz-history/

Beginning of Port Hills fire: How McCarthy Contractors responded when they first saw smoke “Christchurch Mayor Lianne Dalziel and Selwyn Mayor Sam Broughton conceded there were communication problems between the different fire organisations in Canterbury, and declaring a state of emergency took too long.”
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11802653

Firefighters were sent home early from Christchurch fire response, union says “New Zealand Professional Firefighters Union Secretary Derek Best has called for an independent inquiry. He said firefighters were sent home for 90 minutes at nightfall on Monday after they had contained but not extinguished the fire. Just an hour and a half later they were called back to the scene, but it was too late. … an inquiry was needed not just into the fire services but into the entire disaster response. ‘Really the same issues from the Christchurch earthquake are still present.’ … Early Valley Rd homeowner Ken McKenzie believed … ‘If action had been taken quicker and we’d got more resources to the site … it should have been able to be stopped before it headed towards town. ‘If they got helicopters and bulldozers in, it could have been stopped. The issue I have is pretty much the organisation, the level above – there’s something drastically wrong.'” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89546268/firefighters-were-sent-home-early-from-christchurch-fire-response-union-says

Port Hills fire: Firefighters ‘needlessly’ called away
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/324689/port-hills-fire-firefighters-‘needlessly’-called-away

‘Tomorrow it will hit me’: Emotional firefighter describes Port Hills fire fury “exhaustion and low morale among the firefighters in the first few days.. But when the fire became contained, the mood changed.”
http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/tomorrow-it-will-hit-me-emotional-firefighter-describes-port-hills-fire-fury/

Analysis: What could have been done to stop the Port Hills blaze? “Canterbury Civil Defence controller John Mackie says officials were ‘just going by the book’ when leaving the initial response to the fires to Selwyn’s rural fire team, rather than Christchurch officials. ‘That’s prescribed in the act… the responsibility for the rural fire lies on the authority in whose area it starts – even though it may cross a boundary, that jurisdiction doesn’t change.’ Mackie says Canterbury’s Civil Defence group set up an emergency operations centre early on Wednesday morning, as Governors Bay came under threat, and made the case for a state of emergency when evacuations started to increase later that afternoon. Christchurch Mayor Lianne Dalziel denies officials were too slow to declare a state of emergency, saying work on the declaration began ‘from the moment we were advised that people were being evacuated from their houses’. There was no issue of firefighters lacking in numbers, Mackie says – it was simply that they felt they had the fire under control, before the weather began to conspire against them. ‘The rural fire officers were saying that they had ample resources available: it was only when [there was an] escalation of the number of people being evacuated, and the [increased] risk to urban residents, that was the main reason for the declaration.’ But couldn’t there have been more helicopters with monsoon buckets in the air, or firefighters on the ground? Not according to Selwyn Mayor Sam Broughton, who says there are more choppers available than there is room for them. ‘We’re at saturation point in the sky – there’s not another helicopter that could fit in the space safely.’ … Labour Port Hills MP Ruth Dyson says lessons from the response to the fire can wait until after it is extinguished for good.”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/89466598/analysis-what-could-have-been-done-to-stop-the-port-hills-blaze

Hosking critiques Civil Defence 190217

Mike Hosking critiques Civil Defence response, Seven Sharp 17 Feb 2017


Mike Hosking on Seven Sharp, TV1 – ‘Nationalise Civil Defence, scrap regional CDEM’ http://tvnz.co.nz/seven-sharp/mike-s-view-communication-hopeless-during-christchurch-fire-disaster-video-6515331 – This simplistic view is circulating amongst those distant from response, where the instinct to ‘make the chaotic situation sensible’ overrides grasp of reality.

In disasters, scale overwhelms sensibility. Reporting can far from keep pace. So many moving parts and uncertainties are involved that synchronisation is not possible. Responders are overwhelmed, trying to face down the unleashed hazard. Every scrap of resource is needed. This can include many, many volunteers. These are ground factors that will never be fully known, understood or controlled at a distance.

Hosking and Brownlee’s wish for centralised civil defence would be to put many more people in much greater harms way, without the ability to confront and respond to their own challenges immediately, directly and collectively, on the ground they discover and face. That is why what the mis-leaders want hasn’t been the case.

The regional system of response escalation simply needs to be understood, supported and made to work. This starts with identifying and removing the particular empowered obstacles to regional civil defence who oppose and inhibit it, to great public detriment. Look to the statements and behaviour of all the local mayors we’ve had especially. City has consistently undermined region, so far. Unacceptable.

Saturday 18 February 2017
Christchurch City Council and Civil Defence held a first large meeting with evacuated residents, in Spreydon’s South-West Baptist Church gymnasium on the Saturday morning ending a fiery week. Attendees were mostly from Kennedy’s Bush and very distressed. Easterly winds still held their homes most at risk, that they hadn’t really understood until this point. Recently-buried asbestos on private land was of great concern and news to most residents too; ECan fronted to say this had been approved. Every evacuated area was represented at the meeting where information flow was roundly criticised and a single online up-to-date source demanded; also, hourly email updates from council on what was happening. These started around mid-day the next day, semi-hourly. Collated: https://ccc.govt.nz/the-council/newsline/show/1406

Council’s primary goal out of this meeting was to break it down into more manageable, evacuated street by street meetings (which took place the following Thursday, 23 Feb). Next to the fire, residents were being hosed down now. They were understandably angered by inept emergency response leading to property damage, disruption and loss. After 90 minutes many were were walking out though and an outside corridor large informal meet-up ensued. The city mayor wanted to join it as the back of the gym audience hadn’t been connecting with the front, unheard due to poor microphone sharing and crowd engagement. Dalziel was peremptorily reminded by those still seated though, “We’re the ones paying attention!” and had to continue on-stage for a later closing.

Alistair Humphreys addresses fire evacuees 18Feb2017

Canterbury Medical Officer of Health, Alistair Humphreys addresses fire evacuees, 18 Feb 2017


NZ Fire Service and Civil Defence etc reps answer fire evacuee questions 18Feb2017

NZ Fire Service, Rural Fire and Civil Defence etc reps answer fire evacuee questions, 18 Feb 2017

John Key’s government had sacked the wrong council, for private profit, early 2010. A regional response would have been more powerful, sooner, with likely much better results than this very obvious fire response debacle.

Communications and cordons heavily criticised at Port Hills meeting “Dalziel promised that the council would review the response and do better in the future. The meeting came a day after the professional firefighters union told media they could have extinguished the fire on Monday, had they not been sent home for 90 minutes.”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89559332/communications-and-cordons-heavily-criticised-at-port-hills-meeting

Port Hills fire: more than 100 properties still cordoned
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/324774/port-hills-fire-more-than-100-properties-still-cordoned

Sunday 19 February 2017
Port Hills residents clean up and clear out
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89576326/port-hills-residents-clean-up-and-clear-out

Parts of Christchurch’s Port Hills likely to remain closed for several weeks
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89564881/parts-of-christchurchs-port-hills-likely-to-remain-closed-for-several-weeks

Mark Reason: John Key goes from PM to shameless salesman in record time “Who knows what Key believes in, although certainly investment in himself and engagement of us seem near to top of the list” http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/opinion/89532461/Mark-Reason-John-Key-goes-from-PM-to-shameless-salesman-in-record-time

Monday 20 February 2017 – one week on

‘Nobody wants a dead hero’: celebrated Christchurch fires helicopter pilot Steve Askin farewelled http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/89581850/funeral-for-celebrated-christchurch-fires-helicopter-pilot-steve-askin

Firefighters could have died if not pulled back during Port Hills blaze “When you’ve got that amount of heat coming up the hill and big boulders rolling down the hill, what do you think is the right call in that situation.”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/89581311/bad-weather-grounds-helicopters-fighting-port-hills-blaze

While Christchurch burns, Wellington talks “‘bringing together rural, urban, volunteer and paid urban firefighters into one national organisation for the first time’. The new Fire and Emergency New Zealand (Fenz) will mean ‘a much better standard of service delivery, a much better deal for our rural and volunteer firefighters and a much better deal for New Zealanders’ … The response in Christchurch suggested an uncoordinated system. Who should have called a state of emergency and when, exactly? Why, Brownlee asked, were the rural fire services leading things? ‘I’m perplexed as to why you’ve got the Selwyn District or rural firefighters running things inside Christchurch City Council district boundaries’ … The updated law, after advice from firefighters, will clarify that letting a fire burn can be a valid response to a fire. … only NZ First was opposed to moving this legislation on to the next phase. … Two reports from Australia have convinced him [Clayton Mitchell] that mergers of urban and rural services favour the urban culture at the expense of rural. Do we risk driving the rural volunteers away?” [emphasis added] http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/89488611/while-christchurch-burns-wellington-talks

Port Hills fire evacuations: ‘Nothing ever seems to change’
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/324856/port-hills-fire-evacuations-‘nothing-ever-seems-to-change’

Dunne responds to criticism of Port Hills fire
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/201833839/dunne-responds-to-criticism-of-port-hills-fire

Christchurch Mayor criticised for lack of information
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/201833830/christchurch-mayor-criticised-for-lack-of-information

Port Hills resident frustrated at lack of information
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/201833828/port-hills-resident-frustrated-at-lack-of-information

Civil Defence ‘failing’ to give Port Hills residents vital info
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/201833816/civil-defence-‘failing’-to-give-port-hills-residents-vital-info

Mike Yardley: Response to Christchurch fires from officials ‘rudderless’ “as the past seven days have unfolded, a multitude of alarm bells have been rightly rung about the cack-handed response and somewhat rudderless leadership from officialdom. The acting Civil Defence Minister, Gerry Brownlee, was far from alone in feeling ‘perplexed’ at the belated nature of the state of civil emergency being declared. Social media lit up on Wednesday afternoon, as the inferno raging across the Port Hills seemingly galloped out of control. Hundreds of residents vented their increasing dismay and disbelief at the apparent failure of the Selwyn and Christchurch mayors to get to grips with the enormity of the ever-billowing threat. Individuals were pleading with Mayor Dalziel and senior city councillors, via their Facebook pages, to urgently declare a state of emergency. It took a further two hours after Westmorland was suddenly evacuated at 4pm, before the declaration was issued. Some hillside residents had packed and were ready to self-evacuate at 1pm. They could see the situation gravely deteriorating, first-hand.”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89612043/mike-yardley-response-to-christchurch-fires-from-officials-rudderless
– Yardley’s anti-ECan positioning has long blinded him to insight into defective regional response. Use what we have, don’t hinder it! Yardley’s wanting “declaration issued much earlier in the afternoon” is a joke. First thing Tuesday was the right time, the only time to have hit the fires from the air with everything possible and cauterise the threat. A declaration then would have been entirely reasonable, given the extreme dry hills risk at this time and that fire spanned two district boundaries – the ECan CDEM action trigger, purportedly. Declaration early Tuesday and military resources were available as regional council options, but ECan naysayers like Mike and Gerry have it firmly in a sealed box, held captive and useless. At least Huntsbury remained safe. Not.

John Campbell on RNZ Checkpoint – ‘What went wrong? It depends who you ask’
Hundreds of people waiting to return home after Port Hills fire
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/201833922/hundreds-of-people-waiting-to-return-home-after-port-hills-fire
– helping Ruth Dyson provide cover for ongoing National-Labour CDEM botches,
Fire and Emergency Bill would provide clarity in major events
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/201833923/fire-and-emergency-bill-would-provide-clarity-in-major-events

Tuesday 21 February 2017

Port Hills fire – Update Tuesday 12:20pm: State of Emergency extended
“‘this remains a serious situation that requires a significant and coordinated multi-agency response,’ the Mayor said. ‘While the State of Emergency terminates tomorrow evening, we are mindful of the significance of 22 February to the Canterbury community and as a result we agreed it was appropriate to consider the status of the State of Emergency today.’ The extension automatically lasts for seven days, but can be terminated earlier. The Joint Committee will meet on Friday to consider the transition to recovery. That will be an appropriate time to reconsider the need for the State of Emergency to remain in place”
https://ccc.govt.nz/the-council/newsline/show/1406

State of Emergency extended: ‘The fire is not out’
http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/state-of-emergency-extended-the-fire-is-not-out/

Wednesday 22 February 2017

Christchurch Civil Defence
Port Hills Fire – Update #8 – 5.30pm
“Fire progress: The Fire Service is pleased to announce that good progress has been made in controlling the fire in the Worselys Road area. Patrols will continue in the area, but crews will no longer be actively working in the area unless called in for a flare up. Residents are asked to help by being vigilant and to DIAL 111 IMMEDIATELY IF THEY SEE ANY SIGN OF THE FIRE REIGNITING. ‘Our crews have made great progress and we’re pleased to be able to pull back from the Worsleys area, but we really need people to keep a watch on things for us,’ said Fire Service Liaison Officer Bruce Irvine. ‘The more eyes we have out there looking the better.’ Fire services are continuing operations in other areas affected by the fire.”

Christchurch Earthquake Memorial draws on rich tradition of memorials around the world
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/christchurch-earthquake-2011/89638351/christchurch-earthquake-memorial-draws-on-rich-tradition-of-memorials-around-the-world

Thursday 23 February 2017

Christchurch Civil Defence
Port Hills Fire – Update #3 – 1pm
“Fire operations: Fire services advise that 90% of the fire perimeter area is now considered to be controlled. Controlled is defined as bare earth or blacked out ground for at least 10 metres.”

Residents Update:
Port Hills Fire – Update #4 – 1.30pm
“Free GP visits are being offered to people affected by the Port Hills fires, at the discretion of their General Practice team. This includes people who worked on or are still working on fire control and recovery operations. The offer period covers the 2 months from 13 February 2017, the day the fire started.”

24 February 2017

The science behind the South Island’s first fire tornado
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89730960/the-science-behind-the-south-islands-first-fire-tornado

25 February 2017

Port Hills fires recovery managers named
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/89796995/port-hills-fires-recovery-managers-named

National portrait: Richard McNamara, the face of the Port Hills fires
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89700695/national-portrait-richard-mcnamara-the-face-of-the-port-hills-fires

26 February 2017

Port Hills fires rubberneckers ‘not welcome’, says Christchurch City Council
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/89807125/port-hills-fires-rubberneckers-not-welcome-says-christchurch-city-council

A good steady rain, this day – 5-12mm across the fire ground, low-high altitude.

Monday 27 February 2017 – two weeks on

Editorial: Civil Defence faces an uncertain future Fire and Emergency New Zealand – “after Fenz has expanded to include Civil Defence it could eventually broaden to cover ambulance services as well”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/opinion/89779025/editorial-civil-defence-faces-an-uncertain-future

28 February 2017
Government, city council pledge $6 million to grow ‘resilience’ in Canterbury The Press

Wednesday 1 March 2017 – State of Emergency lifted at 6pm

Port Hills fires: State of emergency to lift, hill residents on alert for flare-ups
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/89915130/port-hills-fires-state-of-emergency-to-lift-hill-residents-on-alert

Saturday 4 March 2017

Devastated Port Hills now open to public by road
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/90057550/devastated-port-hills-now-open-to-public

Fire perimeter now fully contained and controlled “Fire authorities working on the Port Hills fire are now confident the fire is substantially under control and are withdrawing overnight patrols.”
https://ccc.govt.nz/the-council/newsline/show/1406

Friday 10 March 2017
Port Hills fires exposed tensions and confusion within fire crews, but change will come The Press http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/90275638/fire-reforms-will-change-way-fires-like-those-in-the-port-hills-are-fought + Firestorm graphical essay research https://assets.stuff.co.nz/interactives/2017/firestorm/

Thursday 20 April 2017
Port Hills fires finally extinguished “Fire authorities say the massive blaze that broke out on Christchurch’s Port Hills two months ago, burning through 2000ha of land, is now completely out.”
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/329135/port-hills-fires-finally-extinguished

Thursday 11 May 2017
Port Hills chopper crash caused by bucket cables – report Radio NZ
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/330550/port-hills-chopper-crash-caused-by-bucket-cables-report

[Further editing may follow]

Live: Homes evacuated as Christchurch Port Hills fires rage out of control 16 Feb 2017
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89455976/live-homes-evacuated-as-christchurch-port-hills-fire-rage-out-of-control

LIVE: Port Hills fire – Day 4 Radio NZ 16 Feb 2017
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/324608/live-battle-to-contain-port-hills-fires-continues

Port Hills blaze: Live updates Newshub
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/port-hills-blaze-live-updates.html +

Christchurch Port Hills blaze in photos
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/christchurch-port-hills-blaze-in-photos.html

Is Civil Defence really in control of the Christchurch fires? “it’s high time for less bureaucracy and more open and honest communication. Civil Defence does not want the blood of New Zealanders on its hands. Who can the public trust in times of national emergency? At the moment it’s the media” Newshub 16 Feb 2017 http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/the-burning-question-is-civil-defence-really-in-control-of-the-christchurch-fires.html

Mayors’ war of words with Brownlee over Port Hills state of emergency “Mr Brownlee said the most accurate information about the fire on Wednesday came from the media – not officials. Those in charge of the fire response have ‘got to learn’ from this experience, Mr Brownlee said. ‘I was in Wellington, not Christchurch.’ Prime Minister Bill English also confirmed there will be a review of the Civil Defence response and the delay in declaring a state of emergency.” http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/mayors-war-of-words-with-brownlee-over-port-hills-state-of-emergency.html

Patrick Gower: Port Hills fire shows Civil Defence a shambles yet again
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2017/02/patrick-gower-port-hills-fire-shows-civil-defence-a-shambles-yet-again.html

Port Hills fire: 1000 people forced to evacuate “For the second time, James Frost has lost a home to disaster in Christchurch. He said he found out at 11pm on Wednesday that the fire had reached his evacuated home.. while most police officers were good, one of his flatmates was left in tears because of a police officer who ‘didn’t have the people skills to deal with the scenario'” http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/port-hills-blaze-evacuees-forced-to-leave-everything-behind.html

Port Hills community pulls together to find homes for animal evacuees
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/port-hills-community-pulls-together-to-find-homes-for-animal-evacuees.html

Port Hills family loses classic car collection, home in fire
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/port-hills-family-loses-classic-car-collection-home-in-fire.html

Video: Social media reacts to Christchurch fire
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/video-social-media-reacts-to-christchurch-fire.html

[1] CTV refs.
Canterbury Television: New Zealand’s SHAME The Press 10 March 2017
https://riktindall.wordpress.com/2013/10/04/canterbury-television-new-zealands-shame/
September 4 #JUSTICE 4 #CTV families
https://riktindall.wordpress.com/2013/09/04/september-4-justice-4-ctv-families-christchurch-quake-new-zealand-eqnz-ccc-chch-nz/
Civil defence fail compensation due #JohnKey #NZ
https://riktindall.wordpress.com/2013/02/21/civil-defence-fail-compensation-due-johnkey-nz-new-zealand-eqnz-christchurch-quake-chch-cdem-ctv-22feb2011-nzdf-ecan/
#CTV inquest. 214 dead. #EQNZ #PikeRiver #Chch #quake
https://riktindall.wordpress.com/2013/01/21/ctv-inquest-214-dead-eqnz-pikeriver-chch-quake-cdem-nz-arrestjohnkey-ecan-ows-christchurch/

GNS Science head office, like most New Zealand government, resides in Wellington region. There, existential angst competes heavily with Auckland for economic weight and centre of gravity. So Wellington treats the South Island as a private back yard – to be seen, not heard, exploited for all it is worth and insistently ignored and mis-spoken for. ‘It is all about us’, believes the capital, almost always. This hard-to-dislodge perspective explains constant nonsense from official sources over the 14-Nov-2016 magnitude-7.8 earthquake, particularly where it actually took place (and what it did). You would think GNS could not read a map or never travelled a secondary highway, to have located this earthquake as “Culverden”. They have a convention of approximating, to name larger centres that people may have heard of, only. This generalising is unhelpful. Locating the historically-large earthquake accurately is key to understanding it and its implications.

This was a “Wairau” earthquake, as the epicentre map shows – so why aren’t the authorities saying that? Why has this earthquake become about “Wellington” and “Kaikoura” exceptionally? Yes, people have sadly died or become most isolated in the latter town, and have our condolences and full support through that, with buildings lost at both places. But this is governance by spin: intentional confusion to deflect risk – to benefit who, we may ask? Tsunami alarm and quake interpretation questions abound – what is really happening? Where is it happening? Public discourse to be urgently joined. Lives depend on getting this very public knowledge correct.

Canterbury magnitude 5 to 7.8 EQs 13-21 Nov2016

Canterbury magnitude 5 to 7.8 earthquake and aftershocks, 13-21 November 2016 – http://quakesearch.geonet.org.nz

For comparison, Marlborough magnitude 5 to 6 earthquakes, 13-18 November 2016

For comparison, Marlborough magnitude 5 to 6 aftershocks, 13-21 November 2016 – much fewer and smaller

Canterbury 7.8-magnitude earthquake epicentre 141116

Canterbury 7.8-magnitude earthquake epicentre 14Nov2016 http://www.geonet.org.nz/quakes/region/newzealand/2016p858000

Journalists often muddy the water – Cheviot earthquake: Tracing the source of the 7.5 magnitude quake “It appeared to have been a complex earthquake, and scientists were looking into whether it ruptured two separate fault planes, or whether it could be considered just a single rupture. The epicentre of the quake was close to the Hope Fault. The Kaikoura area, where the Hope Fault went offshore, was strongly affected. Despite that, the pattern of events did not necessarily suggest a Hope Fault event, [GNS Science duty seismologist Dr Anna] Kaiser said. The Hope Fault was one of the major faults through Marlborough and North Canterbury that marked the boundary between the Pacific and Australian Plates. Those faults merged near Otira to form the Alpine Fault, which ran along the western edge of the Southern Alps. Looking back over hundreds of thousands of years, the Hope Fault was considered to have one of the highest slip rates among those faults. It was an important structure in accommodating plate movement in that part of the country, Kaiser said. ‘This earthquake occurred right along that line of very active deformation.’ The Marlborough fault system was a kind of transition zone between the Alpine Fault and the subduction interface between the tectonic plates under the North Island. ‘So far, it doesn’t look to be the Hope Fault, rather (and perhaps more concerning) it seems to have ruptured across the Hope Fault,’ USGS seismologist Professor Kevin Furlong said. ‘Most/many aftershocks extend to Cook Strait, implying that the rupture may have extended quite a bit to the north. One concern is whether this has involved any of the subduction plate boundary that starts up at Kaikoura and extends along the [east coast of the] North island. At a minimum, it may have changed the stress conditions on the main megathrust interface – we are exploring that possibility right now'” – deftly shifting the focus to Wellington.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86416880/cheviot-earthquake-tracing-the-source-of-the-quake 14 November 2016
Research https://www.gns.cri.nz/Home/News-and-Events/Media-Releases/Rutherford-Award 11 November 2016

Naming the river floodplains involved is extremely important as these often follow fault lines, in north Canterbury and Marlborough especially – a crucial point for understanding the moving landscape: what is moving, why and when. The Wairau event aftershock trace mostly identifies the Hope Fault, joining directly as it does the massive offshore-Kaikoura Hikurangi Trough (to the Alpine Fault). It is ultimately movement in this huge connected structure that we see affecting land. Seismic force and aftershocks moving in the direction of Wellington should not be confused with the substantive event, but they have been, influential as they are.

Canterbury aftershocks, 14-21 November 2016

Canterbury aftershocks, 14-21 November 2016 – http://quakesearch.geonet.org.nz/

Canterbury aftershocks, 14-21 November 2016

Canterbury aftershocks, 14-21 November 2016 – http://www.christchurchquakemap.co.nz/week

Canterbury aftershocks, 14-21 November 2016 - far view

Canterbury aftershocks, 14-21 November 2016 – http://www.christchurchquakemap.co.nz/week – far view

The zoom out illustrates two things: the offshore trench-fault that runs through land north of Kaikoura as the Hope Fault; that aftershocks are now reaching and accumulating stress along this at the Alpine Fault to the west.

GNS add to confusion – M7.8 Kaikoura quake the biggest since the Dusky Sound jolt in 2009 – 15/11/2016 “Named the Kaikoura earthquake, scientists are describing it as a complex rupture sequence that produced ground-shaking that lasted for about two minutes and was felt throughout the country. It was centered east of Hanmer Springs at a depth of 15km” https://www.gns.cri.nz/Home/News-and-Events/Media-Releases/M7.8-Kaikoura-quake 14 November 2016 – are they afraid of naming Waiau (and Hope)?

The focus is kept upon effects in the Wellington area – Seismologists record 2 metre shift south of Marlborough “The largest aftershocks were close to the Hope Fault, the line running across the centre of the map. The earth moved two metres to the north in Marlborough during Monday morning’s major earthquake, according to data from GNS Science.. the ground moved horizontally 2 metres to the north and vertically down a metre”

www.USGS.gov ground force map for 141116

http://www.USGS.gov ground force map for 141116

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86429681/seismologists-record-2-metre-shift-south-of-marlborough 14 November 2016 – local info presented may always be the best.

Sensational coverage becomes the fact: ‘Absolutely mind blowing’: Aerial photos ‘show seabed lift’ north of Kaikoura https://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/33218262/absolutely-mind-blowing-aerial-photos-show-seabed-lift-north-of-kaikoura/#page1 + Wellington Earthquake: If it struck at a different time, it could have been “much worse” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86453972/earthquake-if-it-struck-at-a-different-time-it-could-have-been-much-worse 15 November 2016

New Zealand’s Tectonic Dragon Awakens “beneath its verdant carpet, New Zealand is still under active construction. It occupies one of the most complex geologic venues on the globe, at the messy boundary of two tectonic plates.. violent, episodic upheavals that shake the seemingly tranquil hills” http://www.newyorker.com/tech/elements/new-zealands-tectonic-dragon-awakens 15 November 2016

Christchurch councils sends staff, resources to quake-hit Kaikoura https://ccc.govt.nz/the-council/newsline/show/1169 15 November 2016

GeoNet Kaikoura earthquake update: Magnitude revised http://info.geonet.org.nz/display/home/2016/11/16/Kaikoura+earthquake+update%3A+Magnitude+revised 16 November 2016 + ref. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/
M7.8 – 53km NNE of Amberley, New Zealand
2016-11-13 11:02:56 UTC 42.757°S 173.077°E 23.0 km depth
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us1000778i#executive +
Magnitude Mw 7.9
Region SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
Date time 2016-11-13 11:02:58.4 UTC
Location 42.69 S ; 172.97 E
Depth 10 km
http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=545040 7.9
http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=545057 6.4
http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=545073 6.1
http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=545103 6.2
+ http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/ (current)

While At quake’s epicentre, residents of Waiau watch helicopters destined for elsewhere “Waiau, population 280, is slowly returning to normality following the 7.8-magnitude earthquake that struck five kilometres away.. The town’s water supply has been restored but a separate feed to all rural properties was badly damaged and still broken. [Hamish] Dobbie said the council was working “really hard” to assist farmers who were running low on stock water. He hoped to have the water flowing in about a week. It has been a bitter pill to swallow for the community already struggling through a drought – a disaster within a disaster. Farmers near Waiau waved desperately at helicopters headed for Kaikoura, hoping they would stop.. It was hard not to feel forgotten as helicopters headed for Kaikoura, considering that Waiau was at the centre of it all. ‘I feel Waiau was a bit left out,” [Brenda] Smith said. ‘Even when it was first reported it was so many [kilometres] from Culverden, so many [kilometres] from Hanmer. I get it, we’re all hurting and Kaikoura is isolated … but yeah.'” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86594300/waiau-farmers-face-weeks-wait-for-water + Civil Defence overhaul ‘inevitable’ after tsunami warning confusion: Govt http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86441740/civil-defence-overhaul-inevitable-after-tsunami-warning-confusion-govt + Mayor thanks those involved in evacuation effort https://ccc.govt.nz/the-council/newsline/show/1186 17 November 2016

Quake sparked more movements in Marlborough faults than first thought http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/318248/quake-sparked-more-movements-in-marlborough-faults-than-first-thought 17 November 2016

“Scientists know a tide gauge at Kaikoura rose 90cm during Monday’s magnitude-7.8 earthquake, but that’s one of the few pieces of detailed data so far about how much the level of the coastline has risen. There is also information about land movement from a network of continuous GPS stations run by GeoNet and Linz showing a rise of around a metre at Cape Campbell, at the southern end of Clifford Bay. Data from the stations also show Cape Campbell moved horizontally northeast by 2-3 metres. ..Many anecdotal reports suggest a two-metre rise at the coast, and there’s even one report of a reef rising six metres”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86565581/finding-out-how-much-the-earth-moved-during-massive-earthquake 18 November 2016

Quake action formed Hanmer Springs but latest quake passed it by “The Hanmer Fault runs right through the township and is the noticeable rise you go up as you head north towards the pools. On the other side of the basin lies the Hope Fault, one of the major seismic features of the region which starts at the Alpine Fault near Inchbonnie on the West Coast and slices its way across North Canterbury before heading offshore just north of Kaikoura. It’s this eastern part of the Hope Fault that some scientists now believe could be at risk of rupturing if enough stress has been transferred on to it from Monday’s large quake.. GeoNet director Dr Ken Gledhill said the quake rupture took the path of least resistance northeastwards up the coast from close to Waiau where it began. ‘It’s kind of strange, it’s like the epicentre in this case is almost a meaningless concept.’ It’s where the action started but it must have started weakly and then slowly built up steam. So Hanmer just happened to be relatively close to where the epicentre, but not the real action, was. The real burst of energy that contributed to most of the magnitude was between Kaikoura and Cape Campbell. It raced up towards Cape Campbell and then it basically stopped.’ Fortunately, Cook Strait, with its offset faults, had acted like a barrier and halted the quake in its tracks, Gledhill said. It was the sudden deceleration which raised the coastal strip by up to 1 metre and shunted that part of the South Island 2m closer to Wellington, rather like a car braking sharply to a stop and the passengers being thrown suddenly up and forward. If you could create a big-enough map of the northern South Island and southern North Island you would be able to see how the islands have stretched, shrunk and otherwise changed shape since 12.02am on Monday. The quake moved Kaikoura about 1m further northeast and upwards 70 cm, and Hanmer Springs jumped east about 50 cm. Wellington and the Kapiti Coast are now 2 to 6cm further north, Christchurch and Banks Peninsula have shifted 2cm south and some parts of the West Coast are now 10cm closer to Canterbury than they were” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86554866/quake-action-formed-hanmer-springs-but-latest-quake-passed-it-by 18 November 2016

NIWA diverts ship to earthquake areas https://niwa.co.nz/news/niwa-diverts-ship-to-earthquake-areas 18 November 2016

CCC Coastal residents urged to have evacuation plan
https://ccc.govt.nz/the-council/newsline/show/1190

GNS Kaikoura shoreline movement, 14 Nov 2016

GNS Kaikoura shoreline movement, 14 Nov 2016

‘Startling’ rise of 5.5 metres in piece of coastline during Kaikoura earthquake confirms quake energy has spanned the Hope Fault – the Kekerengu Fault has just moved about 10 metres horizontally, or about half of its 20-25m known movement per 1,000 years. That much sudden, imminent movement is scarily awesome. Note the Hope Fault is near where shoreline rise has been the greatest, at 3-3.5 metres. http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86703833/startling-rise-of-55-metres-in-piece-of-coastline-during-kaikoura-earthquake 21 November 2016

Greedy, short-sighted economic actors are multipliers of natural risk. Korean charter flights pulled post earthquake – “The tourism industry and government agencies were also deliberately calling it the ‘Kaikoura earthquake’ because referring to north Canterbury gave the impression that Christchurch had been affected, when it had not”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/86604299/korean-charter-flights-pulled-post-earthquake 18 November 2016

We must remember, and anticipate, the main event.

And the Wellington earthquake – in the South Island – origins.

This 7.8 was exactly where I forecast and warned of, as next in the Canterbury earthquake sequence we are – if lucky, or god will it – living through.

More information: https://www.gns.cri.nz/Home/Our-Science/Natural-Hazards/Recent-Events/Kaikoura-Earthquake

RadioNZ
There was never a risk of a tsunami, says seismologist “We are way over-playing the size and the role of tsunamis. And this is happening in a lot of other places too, because unfortunately we are in a period of science where, to get funding, you have to scare the hell out of the public.” http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/318338/there-was-never-a-risk-of-a-tsunami,-says-seismologist 18 November 2016
Stories from the quakes Insight http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/insight/audio/201824385/insight-earthquake-surviving-7-point-8 19 November 2016
GNS: Tsunami caught us by surprise http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318506/gns-tsunami-caught-us-by-surprise +
Govt to push for tsumani text message system http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/318473/govt-to-push-for-tsumani-text-message-system 20 November 2016
Civil Defence’s earthquake response to be reviewed http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318584/civil-defence’s-earthquake-response-to-be-reviewed +
Crayfish and pāua fisheries shut down on quake-hit coast http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318599/’high-and-dry,-and-now-unfortunately-rotting’ +
Quake-hit Kaikōura still isolated by road http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318538/quake-hit-kaikoura-still-isolated-by-road 21 November 2016
Minister criticises GeoNet’s funding call http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318618/minister-criticises-geonet’s-funding-call 22 November 2016

21 November 2016
Morning, Nine to Noon on http://www.radionz.co.nz News, Dr Kelvin Berryman for GNS Science discusses 14.11.2016 mag-7.8 quake fault research results and questions at variance from USGS findings (no link readily available)

This evening’s television illustrated the overwhelming interest we all have in our own local geological hazards: TV1 Seven Sharp asked ‘Is the capital in the right place?’ (lost link?); while TV3 Story looked at new research modelling of an Auckland tsunami.

22 November 2016
Scientists detect huge fault rupture offshore from Kaikoura
https://niwa.co.nz/news/scientists-detect-huge-fault-rupture-offshore-from-kaikoura
Huge fault rupture stretches 34km offshore from Kaikoura http://www.stuff.co.nz/sunday-star-times/latest-edition/latest-news/86752499/Huge-fault-rupture-stretches-34km-offshore-from-Kaikoura

The best clear explanation, through animations, of how the 7.8-magnitude earthquake propagated and exactly which faults where did move the earth, though again generalising the start as “near Culverden”:
Watching the M7.8 Kaikoura Quake Dominos Fall in Real Time

GNS M7.8 Kaikoura Quake Dominos video 2

GNS M7.8 Kaikoura Quake Dominos video 2

http://info.geonet.org.nz/display/quake/2016/11/23/Watching+the+M7.8+Kaikoura+Quake+Dominos+Fall+in+Real+Time

Tremors rattle Hawke’s Bay as ‘silent earthquake’ shunts East Coast after 7.8 quake http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86715367/Tremors-rattle-Hawkes-Bay-as-silent-earthquake-shunts-East-Coast-after-7-8-quake

Magnitude-5.7 big aftershock that GNS generalises unhelpfully again as “Culverden” area, when it has badly affected Scargill township where a whole new quake sequence is located in their Hurunui River tributary valley. Far too vague! http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/318713/aftershock-damages-north-canterbury-homes
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86758316/Earthquake-Aftershocks-rumble-through-night-after-5-7-shake
This is what preceded the Scargill mag-5.7, by 1 minute and 23 seconds, a local foreshock of 4.8:

GNS screenshot 2016-11-22 Scargill 4.8-magnitude foreshock aftershock

GNS screenshot 2016-11-22 Scargill 4.8-magnitude foreshock aftershock

http://www.geonet.org.nz/quakes/region/newzealand/2016p881666 83 seconds before
http://www.geonet.org.nz/quakes/region/newzealand/2016p881669 magnitude-5.7 Scargill quake

23 November 2016
The Future of New Zealand’s Coastlines
“The massive uplift after the 7.8 magnitude quake has changed Kaikoura’s coastline significantly. With a new reef forming as the land moved up, by as much as six metres along the fault plain. But do we know what the future of New Zealand’s coastline will look like? Just-published tectonic research gives some insight into what sea levels could be in the future. And the satellitle observations show parts of New Zealand, are sinking at faster rates than others, and will be subjected to higher levels of future sea level rise. Co-author of the research is Professor Tim Stern, of Victoria University’s School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences.” – RadioNZ Afternoons 231116

Prof Tim Stern research RadioNZ 231116

Prof Tim Stern research RadioNZ 231116

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/afternoons/audio/201825015/the-future-of-new-zealand’s-coastlines

24 November 2016
Geonet ‘puzzled’ by aftershock sequence following the Kaikoura quake http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86813422/geonet-puzzled-by-aftershock-sequence-following-the-kaikoura-quake
West Coast Civil Defence retracts ‘large aftershock’ warning http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/west-coast-warned-to-prepare-for-possible-massive-aftershock-2016112418
https://www.westlanddc.govt.nz/update-west-coast-civil-defence
http://www.wcrc.govt.nz/our-services/civil-defence-emergency-management/Pages/
Rotorua Museum closed over quake-damage concerns http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318833/rotorua-museum-closed-over-quake-damage-concerns

25 November 2016
West Coast Civil Defence aftershock warning ‘irresponsible’ – Mayor http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/west-coast-civil-defence-aftershock-warning-irresponsible—mayor-2016112510
Large aftershocks a possibility, but there are no ‘urgent warnings’ http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86852615/large-aftershocks-a-possibility-but-there-are-no-urgent-warnings + Earthquake: Large aftershock urgent warning criticised “West Coast Civil Defence regional manager Chris Raine.. ‘an area in the Arthurs Pass just to the west of the divide is generating small earthquakes with several in the last few days that are being felt in Westland’.. [then CD chief] Stuart-Black said ‘Right from day one I’ve been saying that there is a likelihood that we would experience another large aftershock which could be as big as what we experienced just after midnight on 14th but could in fact be potentially larger’ http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86863920/earthquake-large-aftershock-urgent-warning-criticised
So no news is good news? – http://www.civildefence.govt.nz/resources/declared-states-of-emergency/ – where are the official media releases from MCDEM? See https://www.facebook.com/NzGetThru/posts/1237250506334040 etc + https://www.facebook.com/CanterburyEM/
CCC – “The local state of emergency that has been in place in Canterbury for the past week has been extended until November 29” – https://ccc.govt.nz/the-council/newsline/show/1187 + “Self evacuate – don’t wait for the tsunami sirens – if it’s long or strong, get gone” – https://ccc.govt.nz/services/civil-defence/what-to-do-in-an-emergency/tsunami/evacuating/
GeoNet M7.8 Kaikoura Quake: Future Scenarios and Aftershock Forecasts Update 25 Nov 2016 15.00
“Scenario Three: Extremely unlikely (<1% within the next 30 days)
A much less likely scenario than the previous two scenarios is that recent earthquake activity will trigger an earthquake larger than the M7.8 mainshock. This includes the possibility for an earthquake of greater than M8.0, which could be on the 'plate interface' (where the Pacific Plate meets the Australian Plate). Although it is still very unlikely, the chances of this occurring have increased since before the M7.8 earthquake." http://info.geonet.org.nz/display/quake/2016/11/14/M7.8+Kaikoura+Quake%3A+Future+Scenarios+and+Aftershock+Forecasts + Stress and the earthquakes http://info.geonet.org.nz/pages/viewpage.action?pageId=20545958

26 November 2016
Central New Zealand shaken awake by magnitude 4.6 Cook Strait earthquake http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86900233/Central-New-Zealand-shaken-awake-by-magnitude-4-6-earthquake
Updated: Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay slow-slip event now extends to include Kapiti and Manawatu regions following M7.8 Kaikoura Quake http://info.geonet.org.nz/display/quake/2016/11/21/Updated%3A+Gisborne+and+Hawke%27s+Bay+slow-slip+event+now+extends+to+include+Kapiti+and+Manawatu+regions+following+M7.8+Kaikoura+Quake

GNS slow-slip movements 26Nov2016

GNS slow-slip movements 26Nov2016

27 November 2016
‘Strong’ magnitude 4.8 quake rattles central New Zealand https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/strong-magnitude-4-8-quake-rattles-central-new-zealand

28 November 2016
Three sharp earthquakes rattle central NZ, jolts continue overnight http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86926530/Three-sharp-earthquakes-rattle-central-NZ-jolts-continue-overnight
Rotorua woken by 30m geyser eruption http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/rotorua-woken-by-30m-geyser-eruption-2016112810
‘The village is erupting!’ Water shot 30m into the air on Lake Rotorua, giving locals a fright https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/village-erupting-water-shot-30m-into-air-lake-rotorua-giving-locals-fright
Rotorua geyser erupts like a shaken bottle of fizzy drink http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/319092/geyser-erupts-like-a-shaken-bottle-of-fizzy-drink + Geyser eruption sends water 30m into the air http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/201825617/geyser-eruption-sends-water-30m-into-the-air
Geyser eruptions in Rotorua coincide with earthquake activity http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86935777/Geyser-eruptions-in-Rotorua-coincide-with-earthquake-activity
Kaikoura quake could be behind ‘silent earthquakes’ http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/319093/kaikoura-quake-could-be-behind-‘silent-earthquakes&#8217;
Slow-slip earthquakes detected in Kapiti and Manawatu, joining Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86927682/Slow-slip-earthquakes-detected-in-Kapiti-and-Manawatu-joining-Gisborne-and-Hawkes-Bay
Watch: Incredible new images from space show how Kaikoura’s earth jolted apart https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/watch-incredible-new-images-space-show-kaikouras-earth-jolted-apart?auto=5225981168001

29 November 2016
‘Unusual’ geothermal activity at Lake Rotorua – GNS
http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/unusual-geothermal-activity-at-lake-rotorua-2016112823
Are earthquakes and geyser eruptions related? ‘No, Taupo and Tarawera eruptions have a roughly 1,000 year return period, Auckland every 1-2,000 years..’
http://www.newshub.co.nz/tvshows/paulhenry/are-earthquakes-and-geyser-eruptions-related-2016112913
Scientists’ research trench slips nine metres in Kaikoura Earthquake http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/86972668/scientists-research-trench-slips-nine-metres-in-kaikoura-earthquake

30 November 2016
Another geyser erupts in Rotorua
http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/another-geyser-erupts-in-rotorua-2016113015
Weather might have caused second eruption in Rotorua http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/319291/weather-might-have-caused-second-eruption-in-rotorua

Become better prepared – https://happens.nz

USGS 141116 mag-7.8 shakemap - Waiau

USGS 141116 mag-7.8 shakemap – Waiau – http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us1000778i#map

This USGS shake-intensity map locates: a) the Pacific plate and Australian plate tectonic boundary; b) Wairau River as central to the mag-7.8 EQ fault action – confirmed (therefore USGS have this epicentre listed wrongly?)

Synchronicity with Alpine Fault movement is precise – “at least three past large earthquakes had occurred in the last 1250 years. These initial results confirmed that the Kekerengu Fault was capable of producing large earthquakes frequently (on average, about every 300 or 400 hundred years)” – how long delayed is the M7.8 Waiau flow-on effect, to an Alpine M8-9, being the only question. As in weeks, months, years or decades? … Further large stress input is not needed. – Kekerengu Fault has a Word to its Geologists http://info.geonet.org.nz/display/quake/2016/11/28/Kekerengu+Fault+has+a+Word+to+its+Geologists

1 December 2016
“Kēkerengū Fault.. in the last 1200 years.. this fault has ruptured three times – and now it’s the fourth time.. between 30 and 50 percent chance of having a great earthquake on the Alpine Fault in the next 50 years”
Fault unlocks new geological data
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/319319/fault-unlocks-new-geological-data
Warnings sounded over NZ’s Transport resilience http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/201826002/warnings-sounded-over-nz’s-transport-resilience
Giant underwater landslide in the Kaikōura Canyon http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ourchangingworld/audio/201825860/giant-underwater-landslide-in-the-kaik-ura-canyon
Slow slips could raise quake risk: GeoNet http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/slow-slips-could-raise-quake-risk-geonet-2016120117
“GNS volcanologist Brad Scott says the geyser was more likely due to weather than to seismic activity” Geyser erupts for second time in Lake Rotorua http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/201825984/geyser-erupts-for-secnd-time-in-lake-rotorua

2 December 2016
Lake Rotorua eruptions ‘not related’ to M7.8, say GNS.. despite its very long reach? :
Earthquake leaves Rotorua Museum closed ‘until further notice
http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/earthquake-leaves-rotorua-museum-closed-until-further-notice-2016120214

September 2015, one year ago: Rotorua geyser bursts into life after 35 years http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/201769992/rotorua-geyser-bursts-into-life-after-35-years + in sequence before that:
Seismic studies shed light on natural disaster risk “the build-up to an eruption from Auckland’s volcanos would be more accelerated than those for volcanos elsewhere” http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/59423/seismic-studies-shed-light-on-natural-disaster-risk 13 October 2010 [then 4.9.2010, 22.2.2011 etc Canterbury quakes..]
New lakes formed by Mt Tongariro’s eruption http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/112694/new-lakes-formed-by-mt-tongariro’s-eruption 8 August 2012
New crater blasted on White Island http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/regional/302697/new-crater-blasted-on-white-island 30 April 2016
Mt Ruapehu still shaking http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/303667/mt-ruapehu-still-shaking 12 May 2016
Scientists prepare for Lake Taupo eruption http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/regional/305214/scientists-prepare-for-lake-taupo-eruption 30 May 2016
+ Preceding the 14.11.2016 mag-7.8 was Hydrothermal activity in Lake Rotorua “A collaboration between the New Zealand Defence Force and GNS Science has picked up hydrothermal activity in Lake Rotorua.. ‘This work is the first step in a series of surveys that we hope will ultimately determine how much heat is being discharged through the lake floor from an underlying magma source, with the results feeding into our long-term hazards assessment of the area.’ The six-week survey ends next week. It covered about 40 percent of the lake floor.” http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/317947/hydrothermal-activity-in-lake-rotorua 12 November 2016

4 December 2016
Kaikōura’s new coast shown by NASA photos http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/319560/kaikoura’s-new-coast-shown-by-nasa-photos

7 December 2016
Nine faults ruptured in Kaikoura quake “but the Hope Fault barely moved.. there could be three segments to the Hope Fault, which moved about 10cm at Half Moon Bay.. GNS was in the process of building a map of the faults” http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/319798/nine-faults-ruptured-in-kaikoura-quake
10 faults known to have ruptured in Kaikoura quake, more likely “The quake started with the rupture of the Humps Fault Zone, near Culverden, [Dr Nicola Litchfield, head of the GNS Science active landscapes department].. said. That seemed to have triggered the next fault along, which had triggered the next one and so on all the way to the Needles Fault – the offshore continuation of the Kekerengu Fault. ‘The movement in each of those [faults] was big enough it triggered the next to go in the same earthquake,’ she said. The faults that went must have been ready to go. The large Hope Fault hadn’t ruptured. “Basically it jumped over the Hope Fault and didn’t rupture that except for a tiny bit at the coast,” Litchfield said. ‘In this area there are a lot of faults. The thing is before this earthquake we didn’t think so many were going to rupture in one earthquake. I guess that’s the big surprise.’ It was unlikely the combination of faults in the Kaikoura earthquake would be repeated. The Kekerengu Fault went every 300-400 years. In contrast, it wasn’t known how often the faults at the south of the rupture zone went, but it was thought to be thousands, or tens of thousands of years between ruptures.”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/87292211/10-faults-known-to-have-ruptured-in-kaikoura-quake-more-likely

9 December 2016
Central NZ tsunami risk may be higher due to undiscovered offshore faults “GNS Science geophysicist Dr William Power said the 14 November tremor provided an ‘interesting puzzle’ in terms of where the tsunami was generated.. the tsunami might have reached 4 metres in some areas of the Kaikoura coast. However, the fact the quake struck close to low tide and that the land was uplifted at the same time reduced the extent of inundation. ‘A better understanding of the fault movements offshore in the Kaikoura earthquake will help us better evaluate the tsunami risks in central New Zealand.'”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/87301480/central-nz-tsunami-risk-may-be-higher-due-to-undiscovered-offshore-faults

15 December 2016
Restrictions on building along Alpine Fault in Franz Josef scrapped
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/87604696/restrictions-on-building-along-alpine-fault-in-franz-josef-scrapped

16 December 2016
Scientists find evidence the Earth’s crust ripped apart to create a 7km deep abyss off Banda, Indonesia http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/87647721/scientists-find-evidence-the-earths-crust-ripped-apart-to-create-a-7km-deep-abyss

[post under edit – return to read more later – thanks for viewing]

M7.8 Kaikoura quake the biggest since the Dusky Sound jolt in 2009 – 15/11/2016
https://www.gns.cri.nz/Home/News-and-Events/Media-Releases/M7.8-Kaikoura-quake

Canterbury Earthquake Research Programme 2012-15 “In Budget 2011, Government made available to the Platform $12M GST ex for studies that addressed the impacts of the Canterbury earthquakes and lessons that could be applied to other centres” – So why stop there? …
https://www.naturalhazards.org.nz/NHRP/Publications/Establishment-Strategy/Canterbury-EQ-Programme

NZ moving to ‘period of more earthquakes’ 15 November 2016
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/318095/nz-moving-to-‘period-of-more-earthquakes&#8217;

The Mountains Moved 00.02 14.11.2016
https://assets.stuff.co.nz/interactives/special-features/the-mountains-moved/index.html

Quake claims top $900m “New Zealand businesses have lodged more than $900 million in insurance claims since the Kaikōura earthquake”
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/business/323574/quake-claims-top-$900m

Did November’s 7.8 shake create a ‘quake lake’ in the Tararuas? 20 March 2017
http://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/90608086/Did-Novembers-7-8-shake-create-a-quake-lake-in-the-Tararuas

Large earthquake risk remains high “15 percent likelihood of a magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake striking New Zealand in the next month” 20 March 2017
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/327036/large-earthquake-risk-remains-high

Quake-hit residents fear insurance woes 24 March 2017
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/327322/quake-hit-residents-fear-insurance-woes

Major earthquake could split Wellington region into ‘seven islands’ 24 March 2017
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/90790889/Major-earthquake-could-split-Wellington-region-into-seven-islands

Kaikoura earthquake moved the South Island, new research shows 24 March 2017
http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/90769048/kaikoura-earthquake-moved-the-south-island-new-research-shows

Kaikōura quake moved South Island 5 metres 24 March 2017
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/327328/kaikoura-quake-moved-south-island-5-metres

Extreme heat detected beneath the Southern Alps “New Zealand scientists drilling into the Alpine Fault on the West Coast have found much higher temperatures than expected – which as well as being scientifically exciting could also be commercially very significant for New Zealand. They’ve drilled nearly 900 metres into the Alpine Fault at Whataroa – finding geothermal conditions comparable with Taupo, but there are no volcanoes in Westland. Kathryn Ryan talks to Victoria University’s John Townend” RNZ 18 May 2017
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/201844259/extreme-heat-detected-beneath-the-southern-alps

Whataroa Valley research site, Victoria University

Whataroa Valley research site at Alpine Fault – Victoria University supplied pic, May 2017


+ The sleeping dragon: Researchers find blazing heat beneath the Southern Alps The Press http://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/92669729/the-sleeping-dragon-researchers-find-blazing-heat-beneath-the-southern-alps

Noting a return of readers to my blog today, probably looking for New Zealand earthquake analysis, I will rattle this post off quickly, as a catch-up on a previously strong theme to my writing. Then I will take a good long walk to relax. As should we all.

Having accurately forecast, to within 50 minutes, a magnitude 4.7 Christchurch earthquake yesterday, what are my afterthoughts about this? Under-earth events continue for the country and are detailed here: #Masterton‬ mag 5.2 ‪#‎eqnz‬ this morning is not alone..”[1] (Read research at footnote link). The title is only more fitting, a month to the day since it was written, when there have been two 5.2 magnitude earthquakes, this new morning. (Ironically, says the Moon Man?)

Stunning, really. Awesome Earth!

But what is the big picture, if I am asked?

Well, it’s not good. Not for New Zealand, one of the newest land masses and nations on the planet – it is likely to have to start again. In our lifetime? It seems / I would say, perhaps yes. Because a 330-year Alpine Fault cycle is sitting at year 299, approximately.

The tectonic motion we have begun to experience as a constant factor of the post-colonial state has the capacity to practically destroy it. In my opinion. A catastrophe so large is built into this land, Aotearoa – Land of the Long White [volcanic] Cloud – that it will surely cripple us one day. Soon? Hard to say. Why? It looks like this:

Current south-east/central North Island quakes are signs that the Australian Plate it is on is moving, a little bit more. When it finally gets going properly it will be a huge leap south-east, and this will spread the central plateau / Kermadec Arc enough for the Taupo super-volcano to explode again. That will obliterate the central North Island and disable both Auckland and Wellington.

What will initiate this calamity, however, will be almost as bad for the South Island  – a magnitude 8+ slippage of the Alpine Fault, disabling Christchurch and the then-isolated West Coast. This (long-term) ‘regular’ event constitutes the letting-off of the not-quite slow-moving tectonic brake, that is the Southern Alps, that keeps this geological system ‘stable’. A relative term. Long calm will resettle again, after many many large and small aftershocks.

Will Otago-Southland be left standing to pull us through? Let us hope so.

There is no way we can recover from this imminent (in our lifetime?) surety without massive international support and massive sacrifice of sovereignty.

Let us prepare for that transitional step now. However we are best able to.

But it may be that the next magnitude 8+ Alpine Fault earthquake does not release Taupo super-volcano.[2]  Let us hope so. ‘Not yet please.’  We are not ready. …

Is the Taupo volcano on a 5, 6 or 7 Alpine Fault-slip cycle? Some decade on from now, all New Zealand will be discovering this, as-yet hidden fact, together. It will be our darkest hour. Human spirit will pull through.

Kia kaha. Kia ora. Waimarie.

[1] facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10209826325001836&set=a.1294734535479.2045005.1443783772&type=3

[2] “1800 years ago Taupo volcano in New Zealand had the largest volcanic eruption in the world for the last 5000 years.” sott.net/article/249473-Is-The-Super-Volcano-Taupo-in-New-Zealand-Awakening and see wikipedia.org/wiki/Taupo_Volcano “The main pyroclastic flow devastated the surrounding area, climbing over 1500 metres (5000 ft) to overtop the nearby Kaimanawa Ranges and Mount Tongariro, and covering the land within 80 kilometres (50 mi) with ignimbrite from Rotorua to Waiouru. Only Ruapehu was high enough to divert the flow.”

“Possibility of further eruptions on White Island remains high” 10 May 2016 m.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11636672

“Mt Ruapehu still shaking” – top closed to public radionz.co.nz/news/national/303667/mt-ruapehu-still-shaking

“Aggressive 4.7 Christchurch shake centred close to February 22, 2011 earthquake”  stuff.co.nz/national/79890087/earthquake-rattles-christchurch and five hours later a “‘Strong’ earthquake shakes lower North Island” stuff.co.nz/national/79892918/Strong-earthquake-shakes-lower-North-Island 12 May 2016 – graphic, GeoNet.org.nz/quakes/drums:

120516b-NSN-drums-Masterton4.7-5.2

Update 30/5/2016

Scientists prepare for Lake Taupo eruption

“A team of researchers is studying the volcano so better response plans can be put in place in case of a large eruption. The Earthquake Commission said damage from the last time the volcano erupted – almost 1800 years ago – would be large enough to destroy the central North Island…”
radionz.co.nz/news/regional/305214/scientists-prepare-for-lake-taupo-eruption

Understand that the Taupo Volcanic Zone, stretching from Mount Ruapehu to north of White Island, marks the southern pin of the broad Kermadec Arc and basin, a massive slow-spreading rift in the Earth that forever thins its crust. From this steady motion – eastwards, of the Australian Plate – re-eruption of Taupo Volcano is inevitable. It isn’t the centre of the North Island for no reason – it explains why the island is above water. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taupo_Volcanic_Zone

Subduction Zone diagram

Subduction Zone diagram

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lau_Basin + Graphic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Back-arc_basin

The 5th most explosive volcano event known to human scientific records:
Name: Whakamaru
Zone: Taupo Volcanic Zone
Location: New Zealand, North Island
Notes: Whakamaru Ignimbrite/Mount Curl Tephra
Years ago (approx.): 340,000
Ejecta bulk volume (approx.): 2,000 km³
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supervolcano#VEI_8

Later, “Earth’s most recent eruption reaching VEI-8, the highest level on the Volcanic Explosivity Index” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taupo_Volcanic_Zone

“The Ōruanui eruption (about 26,500 years ago) covered much of the central North Island with ignimbrite, up to 200 metres deep. Ash fallout was spread by the wind over the entire North Island, much of the South Island, and a large area east of New Zealand, including the Chatham Islands. About 1,200 cubic kilometres of pumice and ash were rapidly ejected. This caused a large area of land to collapse, forming the caldera basin now filled by Lake Taupō.”

…”Big bang – The Ōruanui eruption was so enormous that it is hard to visualise. In only a few days or weeks it ejected enough material to construct three Ruapehu-sized cones. After the eruption, the new lake gradually filled to a level 140 metres above the present lake. The lake broke out to the north, resulting in a huge flood. For several thousand years the Waikato River flowed northwards into the Hauraki Gulf, but it later changed its course to flow through the Hamilton lowlands to the Tasman sea.”

Then, …”Taupō eruption – The most recent major eruption of Taupō volcano took place in late summer–early autumn around 200 AD, from vents near Horomatangi Reefs (now submerged). The eruption produced a towering ash column, resulting in tephra-fall deposits over a wide area from Hamilton to Gisborne. The airfall deposits were much thicker to the east of Taupō because the eruption column was blown in that direction by strong westerly winds. The eruption column was followed by a devastating pyroclastic flow, blanketing a roughly circular area within 80 kilometres of Lake Taupō with ignimbrite, and destroying all life in its path. The ground-hugging pyroclastic flow appears to be one of the most powerful ever recorded, and was able to overtop Mt Tongariro and the Kaimanawa mountains, climbing 1,500 metres in a matter of minutes. The outlet of Lake Taupō was again blocked during the eruption, and the lake level rose to 34 metres above its present height, forming a widespread terrace. The lake eventually broke out in a huge flood whose effects can be traced for over 200 kilometres downstream, and include boulder beds and buried forests.”
http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/volcanoes/page-5

That is, the same most recent was, the ‘Hatepe eruption’: “considered New Zealand’s largest eruption during the last 20,000 years.. ejected some 120 km3 (29 cu mi).. of which 30 km3 (7.2 cu mi) was ejected in the space of a few minutes. This makes it one of the most violent eruptions [on Earth] in the last 5000 years.. Tsunami deposits of the same age have been found on the central New Zealand coast, evidence that the eruption caused local tsunamis” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hatepe_eruption

“Radiocarbon dating indicates an uneven spacing of Taupo’s eruptions, from decades to thousands of years apart. This makes it difficult to forecast when the next eruption will occur and how big it will be.” http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/volcanoes/page-5

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php#supv

http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake

Update 4/6/2016
“Magma chamber blamed for Bay of Plenty earthquake swarm.. study found the previously unrecognised magma body caused several thousand small earthquakes between 2004 and 2011.. expansion of the molten rock chamber approximately 9km below Matata has pushed up 400 square kilometres of land by 40cm.. something was accumulating at a depth of around 9.5 to 10km beneath the Earth’s surface.. The magma body could have been there for centuries or more.. The area was a ‘rift zone’ where over time the crust had been stretched and thinned – but it was not clear whether the crust was already thin, or the magma made it thin. ‘It is probably a thinner crust than the average you’d find elsewhere.. But what happens is as you stretch the crust and the hot rocks beneath come to a shallower depth, as they become shallower they get less pressure, which actually then enables them to melt and become magma. That magma, because it’s less buoyant than the surrounding rock, it then wants to percolate up through [into the crust]'”, RNZ – radionz.co.nz/news/national/305592/magma-buildup-blamed-for-quakes & Science Advances article, “results suggest that the continued growth of a large magmatic body may represent the birth of a new magma chamber on the margins of a back-arc rift system” – advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/6/e1600288.full
“A huge deposit of magma has been detected just 9km below a small North Island town – and scientists say it may be causing earthquakes. Matata is nestled between Tauranga and Opotiki, and new research using satellite image, GPS data and surveying has revealed the molten secret. The level of the town has been steadily rising over the last few years – up to 10mm per year of uplift, but it is now beginning to slow to about four-five millimetres per year. Scientists are confident there will not be an eruption in the near future, but say they will continue to monitor the magma field”, TV1 – tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/huge-field-molten-magma-found-under-north-island-town
“Rising magma to blame for swarm of quakes”, TV3 – newshub.co.nz/nznews/rising-magma-to-blame-for-swarm-of-quakes-2016060400
“Volcano status and notifications come to the GeoNet app – With the flurry of volcano activity last month, we’re pleased to add some new features to the GeoNet app so you can keep an eye on them, too”, GNS 30May2016 –
info.geonet.org.nz/display/appdata/2016/05/30/Volcano+status+and+notifications+come+to+the+GeoNet+app

Update 17/6/2016

Lake Tarawera water warning, 10 Jan 2015 – “People are being warned not to drink water from Lake Tarawera or swim in it after locals noticed the water was discoloured. It was reported to the Bay of Plenty Regional Council yesterday by Hot Water Beach residents. The council says geothermal activity could be to blame for the water’s white, milky appearance. Samples have been taken to test for the presence of algal blooms. The results are not due back until next week.”
http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/lake-tarawera-water-warning-2015011012

Lake Tarawera tests positive for algae, 15 Jan 2015 – “Lake Tarawera has tested positive for potentially toxic blue-green algae, but a health warning will not be issued. The confirmation comes after samples were taken from the lake last week, as well as Te Rata Bay near Hot Water Beach. The lake is at ‘amber alert’, meaning the situation will continue to be monitored. ‘The blue-green algae identified are potentially toxic but the levels of algae are below health guidelines,’ says Bay of Plenty Regional Council science manager Rob Donald. ‘We recommend that people do not swim in the water if it is discoloured.’ Blue-green algae only recently arrived in New Zealand, but has already taken its place in lakes throughout the North Island. It causes water to appear green and cloudy, and sometimes green specks will be visible.”
http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/lake-tarawera-tests-positive-for-algae-2015011517

Mt Tarawera vent erupts after 35-year slumber, 17 Jun 2016 – “One of the geothermal vents in Mt Tarawera’s Raupo Pond Crater came alive for the first time in 35 years last month, according to GeoNet. The Mud Rift feature — a 6m-wide, 36m-long, 15m-deep vent formed in 1906 that has been lying dormant since 1981 — was activated sometime between May 17 and 20 this year. A blog on the GeoNet website suggests the eruption was a fleeting event, and involved fluids flooding into the vent and causing ‘stress and browning off’ of surrounding plants. It says the eruption was mainly steam-driven, and involved plenty of water, creating what has been likened to a ‘muddy geyser’.”
newshub.co.nz/nznews/mt-tarawera-vent-erupts-after-35-year-slumber-2016061716

Update 27/7/2016
It appears this blog post has been read and authorities are now responding:
stuff.co.nz/national/82524357/team-granted-funding-to-plan-response-for-alpine-fault-megaquake

– Noting that a Megaquake could hit central New Zealand, Stuff 19 May 2015, motivating research like Simulation of a Magnitude 8.4 Megathrust Quake in New Zealand, GNS Science youtube, 12 November 2015

Stuff graphic - "Megaquake could hit central New Zealand" - 19 May 2015

Stuff graphic – “Megaquake could hit central New Zealand” – 19 May 2015

Occupy Christchurch: In Our Own Words

Occupy Christchurch, Information, Oct-2011

Occupy Christchurch, Information, October 2011

A lot of excellent oral history work by Byron Clark is soon to add to the written record of the late-2011-to-early-2012 Occupy movement moment in New Zealand. The content progress can be followed and listened to here: archive.org/details/OccupyChristchurch

Transcript for Kindle available online here:
goodreads.com/book/show/29745296-occupy-chirstchurch-in-our-own-words

Watch for a publication date here:
amazon.com/Occupy-Christchurch-Our-Own-Words-ebook/dp/B01DMEOV5U

Well done OChch and Byron! Thank you for all your efforts.

Here’s the project website: occupychristchurch.nz

I will next write a blog post inspired by reflection upon the collective Occupy Christchurch experience, as now expressed through Byron’s work. The aim is for this to become an informed philosophical and practical talk, to also be presented soon. We look forward to the book launch!

Kia ora. Kia kaha. Ka kite ano.

Update 6May16
Occupy ref. “Noam Chomsky on the death of the American Dream
Famed scholar, activist and political theorist Noam Chomsky talks frankly to Nine to Noon’s Katherine Ryan about politics, society and his new film, ‘Requiem for the American Dream’. Filmed over five years, the 87 year old unpacks the US policies of the past half-century which have lead to an unprecedented concentration of power in the hands of the select few. The documentary gets its New Zealand premiere at this years Documentary Edge International Film Festival It screens in Wellington today and on Sunday and in Auckland on Tuesday May 24th and Saturday May 28th.” radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/201799712/noam-chomsky-on-the-death-of-the-american-dream

Protest Is Broken’: Co-Creator of Occupy Wall Street Calls for New Mental Shift occupy.com/article/protest-broken-co-creator-occupy-wall-street-calls-new-mental-shift  “Occupy.. was a ‘constructive failure’” 2 July 2015 “..the main trigger for the next revolutionary movement will be a contagious mood that spreads throughout the world and the human community. For me, the main thing we need to see is activists abandoning a materialistic explanation of revolution – the idea that we need to put people in the streets – and starting to think about how to spread that kind of mood, how to make people see the world in fundamentally different way. That’s about it. The future of activism is not about pressing our politicians through synchronized public spectacles.. In the long run, it is much better to develop nonviolent tactics that allow you to create a stable and lasting social movement” – re new book:  The End of Protest: A New Playbook for Revolution by Micah White micahmwhite.com/the-end-of-protest-micah-white-phd 15 March 2016

Barrington petition news: RepReview appeals due 211215

Barrington petition news: RepReview objections and appeals due 21-Dec-2015

The proposal to increase Christchurch councillor numbers and manipulation of city hall shows why the fake-left are held so far from government, by democracy. If there aren’t enough councillors to fill committees – created by the dominant Christchurch administration bloc – what price more?

Devastation of the residential community grid, is what. Ward boundaries at random places that divide suburban communities of interest internally, and from long-held associations with neighbours, is what. For citizens to get their community organisations running they will be challenged by divided representation, in this skewed future. From 13 councillors currently, 16 are proposed. Would 14 be enough? If you think so you may like to join the petition to that effect.

What is fake about this proposed ‘left’ reform of a council is that it posits three added representative officials (on $100k salaries) as necessary ‘improvement’ of local democracy, while shattering the neighbourhood tapestry of suburban communities defined within wards to get there. The cost is to the communities and the gain is to the elected officials.

The fake Left of Christchurch says the end justifies the means, that more (Labour) councillors (on $99,200 salaries) is what our city needs, whatever the cost to struggling communities. Community unity – to decide and lobby for their interests – must be placed first, for which 14 councillors is an adequate increase. But Labour do not want to hear this or from the source.

Representation Review appeals and objections are due by Monday 21 December 2015, by 4pm. Take a look at the proposed 16-ward map, to see how your community would be affected, and have your say: http://www.ccc.govt.nz/repreview
Share: http://www.facebook.com/events/752932178145017/

More info: https://riktindall.wordpress.com/2015/11/30/christchurch-city-mauls-core-communities-addington-sydenham-waltham-linwood-richmond-stalbans-in-boundary-review-ccc-repreview-petition-chch-nz/

Petition: https://riktindall.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/ccc-repreview-submission-petition-dec-2015-barrington-issues-group.pdf

Kia ora. Kia kaha, Otautahi

Barrington Issues Group petition news - Southern View, 30 Nov 2015, p.3

Barrington Issues Group petition – Southern View, 30 Nov 2015, p.3

A petition has started to defend historic Christchurch communities with boundaries under attack in the city’s representation review. Council proposes a new Central ward taking area from Addington, Sydenham, Waltham, Linwood, Richmond and St Albans, breaking up these communities of interest across multiple wards. Akaroa-Wairewa community board is merged as a minority into Lyttelton-Mount Herbert in the proposal. The petition opposing 2016 destruction of social history and community cohesion – so important for post-earthquake city recovery – is here:
CCC RepReview submission petition Dec 2015

The proposed new Christchurch ward areas look like this:

Christchurch City proposed ward boundaries 2016

Christchurch City proposed ward boundaries 2016

Submissions are open until 4pm on Monday 21 December 2015, with details here: http://www.ccc.govt.nz/repreview

News extract from: Southern View, 30 Nov 2015 http://starnews.co.nz/jump.php?link=http://issuu.com/The.Star/docs/115334ob page 3

BIG-MediaRelease2-petition-031215 = http://bit.ly/1Twu4hd

When a preacher repeats a lie, no surprises there; it is his profession after all. The catalogue of Paul McMahon’s corruption just keeps growing, as Spreydon/Heathcote Community Board Chair and now would-be councillor for a proposed half Woolston ward. His team’s conflict-ridden manipulation of council map-hacking is another matter – www.ccc.govt.nz/repreview – but now it can be proven that a Democracy Services lie echoes that of McMahon’s colleagues at ‘Peoples Choice’ indisputably. Truth is stranger than fiction here. Who would be so stupid, except for ‘the entitled’ at Christchurch City Council?

The fraud that Labour(/Alliance) representatives have perpetrated on the people of Christchurch is falsifying the public record, to benefit their greedy, power-at-all-costs, blinded party selves. A career-ending mistake for them each.

Here are the minutes of Spreydon/Heathcote Community Board from 4 August 2015, as written directly to computer and overhead projector – in full view of everyone in the room at the time, without any complaint from anyone – by the board support officer [unnamed-1]: [1]

Spreydon/Heathcote Community Board minutes 4 August 2015

Spreydon/Heathcote Community Board minutes 4 August 2015

Only two weeks later, lie authors Karolin Potter and Melanie Coker decide they don’t like the look of that shared work (moving Part A 1.1) and move to alter the record, per corrupt Team Privilege: [2]

Spreydon-Heathcote Community Board minutes 1 September 2015 p.6

Spreydon-Heathcote Community Board minutes of 21 August 2015 p.6

McMahon agrees and joins the lie, despite my expressed appeal after this travesty. I ask by council email that Board consider reinstating truth in the minute record. The response is [unnamed-2], on 1 September for Democracy Services, before board meeting telling me “an investigation has been done and there was a mistake in the minute writing, by the minute writer.” Which never happened, is unjust blame and an outright covering lie.

What McMahon and CCC Democracy Services hang their hat on, to cement injustice, is the doubt thrown in by board advisor [unnamed-3], who says “I had my nose down taking notes and did not see” – how the Chair had found his mover and seconder for 1.1 on August 4 – unlike [unnamed-1] and everyone else.

I never seconded Clause 3.2 or even spoke on the subject matter – that suggestion was made up too, which has already been acknowledged and changed in the record. After I raised the ongoing error concerning 1.1 with the Board by email, on 1 September [unnamed-2] appeared for Democracy Services to deliver a ruling to be adopted, that drew Helene Mautner into the lie: [3]

SHCB minutes 1Sep15

SHCB minutes 1Sep15

That Democracy Services blames the mistake, through the above vague, non-restorative wording, unjustifiably on the lower-ranked [unnamed-1], and has so far upheld former lawyer [unnamed-3]’s jotting mistake as truth, tells you everything you need to know – the moral of the story – about dirty Labour(/Alliance) social-fascism: these people can never be trusted as government.

– Defend the performance integrity of council worker [unnamed-1] and sack all those ‘above’ her and inventing faults of [unnamed-1]’s. For theirs is the actual and enormous wrong. Theirs is the mistake and infectious lie that they must own up to. No confidence.

Kua mutu.

[1] http://resources.ccc.govt.nz/files/TheCouncil/meetingsminutes/agendas/2015/August/SpreydonHeathcoteCommunityBoard-Agenda21August2015%20.pdf

[2] http://resources.ccc.govt.nz/files/TheCouncil/meetingsminutes/agendas/2015/September/SpreydonHeathcoteCommunityBoard-Agenda-1September2015%20.pdf

[3]

Click to access SpreydonHeathcoteCommunityBoardAgenda18September2015.pdf

Spreydon-Heathcote, Christchurch city ward base, now abolished

Spreydon-Heathcote, Christchurch city ward base recently abolished: to be replaced in 2016

It’s official: the Spreydon-Heathcote electoral ward of Christchurch city is no more. It was abolished on Thursday, 13 August 2015, as were all the Christchurch wards laid out before 2004.[1] That’s a good thing, and moment for nostalgia. A memorial to the Heathcote County Council (ex Road Board) that got merged into Christchurch City Council in 1989, the ward name caused confusion: a) the Heathcote Valley was part of Hagley-Ferrymead ward, not Spreydon-Heathcote, and b) the Heathcote/Opawaho River spanned three city wards, including the above two, so could not rightly be claimed by any of them. Confusing! Remedy at hand.

From one ward, two would now be made. The possibilities around renaming are significant, and will be decided by several influences in the lead-up to the 2016 local elections. The new community board name will last at least the next 3-6 years and probably longer. It affects how our local communities can organise themselves, for diverse beneficial outcomes, within accurate boundaries to be settled in the months ahead. This is important.

So what are the choices? Spreydon-Cashmere(-Woolston) if the 16-ward model about to be consulted upon gains support, or Spreydon-Beckenham if the 14-ward model revives, as best improvement upon the seven wards that just got abolished. Get involved and ‪#‎HaveYourSay‬ from 26 August to 9 October, 2015.[2]

Congratulations are due this council either way. A bold step of making representation more direct to local communities, more locally elected, is within reach. This is a product of dividing seven large wards into a larger number of smaller wards, where each turns out about half the current size (except Banks Peninsula). All wards would reduce from having two councillors to having one, in future (like Banks Peninsula). Of all the concessions to be gained from the Local Government Commission, as changes to the city ward system, this could be the second-most-challenging. The first would be total increase in councillor number, beyond a modest one, to three in the 16-ward proposal. The proposal, to be released by Council on Wednesday 26 August, for us looks like this:

Spreydon-Cashmere-Woolston ward proposal, 26 August 2015

Spreydon-Cashmere-Woolston community board proposal, 26 August 2015

The proposal is to be commended for resolving the primary problem Spreydon-Heathcote ward had with its boundaries: division of Waltham, where part had been in Hagley-Ferrymead ward. At last, Waltham will be united through its representation! That’s a big step forward. But the same fundamental principle needs to be applied to all the new ward map – division of communities is mostly unnecessary and quite unacceptable. For this reason the 14-ward model is better, for creating fewer community divisions, and none once refined, as seen here:

14 ward model, draft Spreydon-Beckenham community board area

14 ward model, draft Spreydon-Beckenham community board area

It is a simple choice, in fact, over where electoral improvements should be made – in and for communities, or for the councillors? That we are being confronted with possibility of the latter (16 councillors) shows that a legal obligation to consult has been inappropriately hijacked for political ends – to meet a council process objective. The cost in this council expansion planswould be one whole community board scrapped, to increase representative weight at the top end. Is this acceptable? There’s a war on between communities and politicians, over who owns democracy, in the Christchurch Representation Review: stop poli-inflation!

Christchurch electors need to look hard at their representation map and voice an opinion over what will work best for them. Because this voice is the only element that can satisfactorily decide the review questions. #‎HaveYourSay‬ from Wednesday!

[1] Graphic – Chch South Library’s future unknown, The Press 10/08/2012,
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/7452318/Chch-South-Librarys-future-unknown +
3.3 “That the current wards and communities be abolished.” – p.240, http://resources.ccc.govt.nz/files/TheCouncil/meetingsminutes/agendas/2015/August/Council13August2015OpenAgenda.pdf

[2] http://www.ccc.govt.nz/the-council/have-your-say/whats-happening-now/representative-review/

The Spreydon-Heathcote ward just abolished:

Spreydon-Heathcote ward map

Spreydon-Heathcote ward map

References:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heathcote_County

Along the Hills: A History of the Heathcote Road Board and the Heathcote County Council, 1864-1989 James Watson, Christchurch 1989, https://christchurch.bibliocommons.com/item/show/68121037

Heathcote County Council – Archives New Zealand, Christchurch Regional Office,
http://thecommunityarchive.org.nz/node/71357

https://riktindall.wordpress.com/2015/08/02/ccc-do-the-job-properly-christchurch-city-council-representation-review-chch-repreview-newzealand-nzlabour-nz/