7.6 Tsunami Alert ‘SAFE ~ tidal marine threat only’ #chch #eqnz #ChristChurch

Tidal marine hazard warning for north-east New Zealand coast – Reinga to East Cape – Stay out of the water and off the beach-line. Be Prepared for stronger than usual currents. Act with caution if boating. 7.03am Kermadec Islands magnitude 7.6 earthquake – moderate sea effect – see GeoNet record. Ref. New Zealand Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management MCDEM.

Kermadecs magnitude 7.6 quake - GNS seismometer drums - 070711

Kermadecs 7.8 poster - USGS 20071209 - low res

See today’s USGS record and the Poster of the Kermadec-Tonga Trench Earthquake of 09 December 2007 – Magnitude 7.8.

At 5:26 pm 2011/07/06 Tsunami-Warn.com wrote to me for an exchange of web-links, which I am very happy to transact. At the time it was not clear which page I should post this Auckland company link onto. Now it stands as 13.4 hours’ early warning for today’s 7:03am, near-local seismic event. Check out the impressive Tsunami-Warn service, a “global early warning and alert system [by] SMS text message” – read latest notice.

Kermadecs magnitude 7.6 quake - USGS 070711

This momentary alarm follows recent escalation of Fiji area 5+ quakes, that was already amidst a period of heightened seismic activity on the north and east Australian Plate. New Zealand geology is ultimately affected by this type of movement, as I began warning eleven days ago: 5.7 south-west Tonga Trench ridge quake shakes NZ. Then two days ago, it was already looking like a ‘more noticable’ /serious? seismic brewing, which GNS Science advise us not to see: Taupo 6.5 quake not good news 4 ChristChurch or NZ. Three days ago, I showed precisely where to watch for any imminent local bad shakes again: Next ChristChurch 6+ quake (which is not starting to trend below the critical ten gigajoule daily Quake Energy release line again yet)

On Cashmere hill, the first high-frequency vibration burst came through from the Kermadecs at 7:45am.

More community discussion: Tamzin Kay South Pacific Quake & Tsunami July 7 2011 for AstroBlog.

N.B. fellow Kiwis – today’s Magnitude 4.8 – KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION 2011 July 06 21:25:04 UTC 9:25am aftershock does not even make it onto GeoNet’s radar! Nor this, a Raoull Island seismograph screenshot, taken 2 July and perhaps showing a clear foreshock to the 7.6 main shock, that had otherwise escaped all the published seismic records (and forecasting):

Raoul Island seismograph drum - GNS 020711

The Raoul Island 7.6 quake and aftershock pattern:

Raoul Island seismograph - GNS 070711b

But here is the double shocker, the effect of the Kermadec magnitude 7.6 quake upon the other side of Antarctica, south of Cape Horn – Palmer Station:

Kermadec 7.6 - PalmerStation 070711

And what is the extra trace movement you can see here got going early, ahead of the large one. about 4:25am NZST for almost an hour, that has no obvious other global seismic record?
Then a newer shot, capturing also the Kermadec 6.0 aftershock to the 7.6:

Palmer Station seismometer, Kermadec 6.0 - 070711

Let this be our triple alert, the effect of the Kermadec magnitude 7.6 quake upon Mount Erebus, NZ Ross Dependency, Antarctica:

Kermadec 7.6 - Mount Erebus 070711

Significant aftershocks ~ THE EARTH IS STILL MOVING on the Kermadec Trench …

Kermadecs 7.6 quake - GIM 070711

I tend to believe this duplicate Kermadec 7.6 depth record, starting this full event account that shows very strong link to west-coast California and Alaska USA (as figured two weeks ago), from the Live Earthquakes Map (magnitude + depth; newest at top):
(series is ever-continued… New data archive page follows on: Kermadec collision cont’d 11/07/11)
Saturday July 9 2011, 01:53:54 UTC Kermadec Islands region 4.7 19.0
Saturday July 9 2011, 00:53:21 UTC Kermadec Islands region 5.2 56.9
Friday July 8 2011, 23:54:14 UTC Kermadec Islands region 4.9 53.8
Friday July 8 2011, 23:31:24 UTC Fiji region 5.1 520.7
Friday July 8 2011, 20:54:06 UTC Fiji region 4.7 577.1
Friday July 8 2011, 16:47:22 UTC Kermadec Islands region 4.8 46.4
Friday July 8 2011, 05:53:03 UTC central Mid-Atlantic Ridge 5.3 10.0
Friday July 8 2011, 05:12:07 UTC Kermadec Islands region 5.2 20.1
Friday July 8 2011, 04:49:22 UTC Fiji region 4.6 628.9
Friday July 8 2011, 03:40:24 UTC Kermadec Islands region 5.3 22.2
Thursday July 7 2011, 23:27:54 UTC Canada -0.3 178.0
Thursday July 7 2011, 23:27:15 UTC Kermadec Islands region 5.2 69.2
Thursday July 7 2011, 22:46:37 UTC Canada 3.1 76.0
Thursday July 7 2011, 21:03:34 UTC Kermadec Islands region 5.1 1.0
Thursday July 7 2011, 19:08:36 UTC Fiji region 5.6 561.3
Thursday July 7 2011, 18:38:23 UTC south of Panama 4.5 10.1
Thursday July 7 2011, 18:35:42 UTC eastern Honshu, Japan 5.6 45.0
Thursday July 7 2011, 14:53:53 UTC south of the Kermadec Islands 5.3 40.3
Thursday July 7 2011, 13:47:01 UTC south of the Kermadec Islands 5.0 29.4
Thursday July 7 2011, 13:07:23 UTC Kermadec Islands, New Zealand 5.3
(trimmed out from here up, retaining items of interest)
Thursday July 7 2011, 09:29:58 UTC Kermadec Islands region 5.5 22.0
Thursday July 7 2011, 09:10:52 UTC Kermadec Islands region 6.0 19.9
Thursday July 7 2011, 08:29:43 UTC Central California 2.1 2.5
Thursday July 7 2011, 08:17:30 UTC Central Alaska 1.5 84.4
Thursday July 7 2011, 08:00:54 UTC Southern California 1.1 14.1
Thursday July 7 2011, 07:46:08 UTC Central Alaska 1.2 0.9
Thursday July 7 2011, 07:20:09 UTC Central California 1.6 3.6
Thursday July 7 2011, 07:10:20 UTC Moro Gulf, Mindanao, Philippines 4.8 561.1
Thursday July 7 2011, 06:43:42 UTC Southern California 1.0 16.3
Thursday July 7 2011, 06:36:21 UTC Southern Alaska 2.6 91.8
Thursday July 7 2011, 06:05:21 UTC Kermadec Islands region 4.7 19.6
Thursday July 7 2011, 05:10:08 UTC near the east coast of Honshu, Japan 4.9 30.4
Thursday July 7 2011, 05:03:55 UTC Southern California 2.0 14.5
Thursday July 7 2011, 05:03:55 UTC Southern California 2.0 14.5
Thursday July 7 2011, 04:40:17 UTC Kermadec Islands region 5.5 19.4
Thursday July 7 2011, 04:38:54 UTC Southern Alaska 1.9 37.0
Thursday July 7 2011, 04:20:03 UTC Kermadec Islands region 4.8 20.0
Thursday July 7 2011, 04:16:37 UTC Southern Alaska 1.7 3.1
Thursday July 7 2011, 04:12:08 UTC Central Alaska 1.9 59.7
Thursday July 7 2011, 04:02:05 UTC near the east coast of Honshu, Japan 4.9 33.9
Thursday July 7 2011, 03:49:18 UTC Washington 1.8 17.7
Thursday July 7 2011, 03:41:39 UTC Kermadec Islands region 4.9 20.0
Thursday July 7 2011, 03:20:16 UTC Central Alaska 2.0 7.3
Thursday July 7 2011, 03:20:16 UTC Central Alaska 2.0 7.3
Thursday July 7 2011, 02:12:24 UTC Virgin Islands region 2.9 36.1
Thursday July 7 2011, 02:10:21 UTC Kermadec Islands region 5.0 19.5
Thursday July 7 2011, 01:26:38 UTC Kermadec Islands region 5.1 19.7
Thursday July 7 2011, 01:23:05 UTC northern Alaska 1.2 11.6
Thursday July 7 2011, 01:16:00 UTC Kermadec Islands region 4.8 20.4
Thursday July 7 2011, 01:06:35 UTC Nevada 2.0 0.0
Thursday July 7 2011, 00:33:37 UTC Kermadec Islands region 5.2 26.4
Thursday July 7 2011, 00:26:44 UTC Southern Alaska 3.1 131.4
Wednesday July 6 2011, 23:13:35 UTC Central California 1.4 10.3
Wednesday July 6 2011, 23:03:32 UTC Kermadec Islands region 4.9 25.0
Wednesday July 6 2011, 22:52:25 UTC Alaska Peninsula 2.2 2.8
Wednesday July 6 2011, 22:50:24 UTC Southern California 1.4 18.8
Wednesday July 6 2011, 22:50:05 UTC Kenai Peninsula, Alaska 1.7 40.7
Wednesday July 6 2011, 22:31:27 UTC Kermadec Islands region 4.9 27.6
Wednesday July 6 2011, 21:49:08 UTC Central Alaska 2.0 74.7
Wednesday July 6 2011, 21:36:37 UTC Southern Alaska 2.1 6.6
Wednesday July 6 2011, 21:28:06 UTC Northern California 1.2 2.4
Wednesday July 6 2011, 21:26:13 UTC Northern California 2.0 2.0
Wednesday July 6 2011, 21:25:04 UTC Kermadec Islands region 4.8 18.9
Wednesday July 6 2011, 21:07:08 UTC Central California 2.0 7.2
Wednesday July 6 2011, 21:04:03 UTC Kermadec Islands region 5.3 16.8
Wednesday July 6 2011, 20:35:39 UTC Kermadec Islands region 5.6 10.0
Wednesday July 6 2011, 19:53:05 UTC Northern California 2.6 1.8
Wednesday July 6 2011, 19:24:55 UTC Southern California 2.4 21.0
Wednesday July 6 2011, 19:15:47 UTC Northern California 3.8 34.2
Wednesday July 6 2011, 19:03:16 UTC Kermadec Islands region 7.6 20.0
Wednesday July 6 2011, 19:03:16 UTC Kermadec Islands region 7.8 48.0

Worlds collide? - Canada 'Magnitude -0.3' - GIM 090711

Palmer Station Antarctica, below Cape Horn, shaking from two sides and ringing like a bell now – Pacific Kermadec 5.3, Mid-Atlantic Ridge 5.3, Kermadec 5.2:

Mid-Atlantic and Kermadec 5+ shocks - Palmer Station 090711

Raoul Island / Kermadec Trench still very unsettled two days after magnitude 7.6 quake:

Raoul Island seismograph - GNS 090711

NOTE
Iceland volcano: eruption ‘could just be rehearsal’ for worse ash chaos if Katla blows “the magna chambers of a volcano that has some 10 times the power of Eyjafjallajökull are long ‘overdue’ an eruption after an unprecedented 92 years of inactivity..” telegraph.co.uk Saturday 09 July 2011.

…bringing Atlantic events into focus, centred on Palmer Station Antarctica at base here:

Mid-Atlantic Ridge magnitude 5.3 - GIM 090711

Mid-Atlantic Ridge magnitude 5.3 - USGS 090711 - Iceland watch

#Taupo 6.5 #quake not good news 4 #ChristChurch or #NZ

My recent blog posts have traced the progression of Pacific Rim plate-boundary subduction movements, from north to south, from Alaska to Antarctica, with New Zealand in between – Zealandia continent being the least mobile, thickest piece of Pacific Plate crust on Earth, and therefore the last Pacific mass to move: an enormous distinction, that governs our edgy tectonic and seismic life. Viz 5.7 south-west Tonga Trench ridge quake shakes NZ 26 June and Next ChristChurch 6+ quake 4 July, Taupo’s deep plate shift today shows how far the south has already moved. Are we building significant momentum now, that can soon “unzip” the Southern Alps fault, as is due?

Magnitude 6.5, Tuesday, July 5 2011 at 3:36 pm (NZST), 30 km west of Taupo:

Taupo magnitude 6.5 - GNS Science 050711

Note, there was very clear indication this moderately big deep-quake event was coming via Hikurangi Trough:
Magnitude 3.9, Monday, June 27 2011 at 10:00 am (NZST), 30 km east of Castlepoint geonet
Magnitude 3.9, Sunday, July 3 2011 at 8:02 pm (NZST), 50 km east of Castlepoint geonet
Magnitude 4.4, Monday, July 4 2011 at 4:06 am (NZST), 60 km south-east of Porangahau geonet
Magnitude 5.0, Monday, July 4 2011 at 8:36 pm (NZST), 60 km south-east of Porangahau geonet
Magnitude 4.2, Monday, July 4 2011 at 10:02 pm (NZST), 60 km south-east of Porangahau geonet
Magnitude 3.9, Tuesday, July 5 2011 at 7:37 am (NZST), 20 km south-east of Arthur’s Pass geonet
Magnitude 2.6, Tuesday, July 5 2011 at 08:21 am (NZST), near 11626 W Coast Rd Arthur’s Pass: Crowe.co.nz
Magnitude 4.6 – NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA 2011 July 05 01:32:13 UTC Victoria: USGS

Taupo magnitude 6.5 quake - GNS Science GoogleMap 050711

More attention is now required, to Taupo volcano in particular: “The Taupo volcano last erupted over 1,800 years ago… first began to erupt over 300,000 years ago. It is very large and has many vents, most of which are now under Lake Taupo. Geological studies of Taupo show that the volcano makes up only the northern half of the lake and a small surrounding area but there have been numerous eruptions from different sites within this large volcano… The Taupo eruption was the most violent eruption in the world in the last 5,000 years… [and] took place from a line of vents near the eastern side of the modern lake” – GNS Science.

Media coverage has been quick to echo the GNS Science view, that this 150km-deep quake was in no way unusual or connected to Christchurch events: ‘We typically have maybe two, three events at that depth of around magnitude five, magnitude six a year – it is normal New Zealand process’. Quakes all part of regular activity – scientist “GNS scientist Brad Scott explains the link between seismic and volcanic activity following yesterday’s Taupo quake” TV1 Breakfast 6July2011 Ref. tectonic earthquake on subducting slab, plate boundary process, not a 15-20km deep volcanic process.
Jul 6 2011 – Taupo Earthquake: Questions and Answers – GNS Science.

Knowing approximately when big quakes are coming is of no consequence to the international scientific community, by current study discipline, except in Japan. Is that acceptable, or simply what we must expect?

5July2011 @6pm ONE News “..for Wellingtonians and for Christchurch residents, they’re just brushing it off as another small shake'” Quake shakes central NZ “A 6.5 magnitude earthquake which struck the central North Island has been felt across much of New Zealand, but there have been no reports of damage.. Geonet said it would be unlikely that it caused any damage because it was so deep. Aftershocks were also unlikely.. Jason Pye, also from Wellington, said it was the strongest quake he’s felt in many years. ‘Bit of a jolt then shaking got worse for about 4 seconds then slowly stopped, everything was shaking but nothing fell of shelves etc.'” 05July2011 + Quake jolts Melbourne “A magnitude 4.4 earthquake, with its epicentre near Korumburra in Victoria’s east, has been felt more than 100 kilometres away in Melbourne.. Geosciences Australia reported the depth at 2km.. Hundreds of small aftershocks followed a similar earthquake in 2009. A number of tremors measuring between 1.8 and 4.6 originated near Korumburra in March and May 2009, with the largest on March 18 felt as far away as Bacchus Marsh, 50km west of Melbourne” ONE News

North Islanders rattled by 6.5 magnitude quake “The six and a half magnitude earthquake centred just west of Taupo yesterday caused no damage, but has shaken the nerves of many North Islanders. (2′48″)” RadioNZ Morning Report 6July2011

Volcanic Taupo - GNS 310511

May 31 2011 – Earthquake swarm under Lake Taupo “From late evening on Saturday 28 May until early Monday 30 May, a small swarm of earthquakes occurred in the southern part of Lake Taupo between Kuratau and Motuoapa. Twenty-seven earthquakes were recorded and they were all located at shallow depths (< 10 km). The largest earthquake had a magnitude of 2.4, but they were mostly between magnitudes 1.7 and 2.2. Small swarms like this often occur within the central part of New Zealand and are likely to be associated with occasional movement on small faults in the southern part of the lake. We believe they are due to the normal extensional processes (stretching and thinning of crust) that occur in the Taupo Volcanic Zone. There is no evidence that the earthquakes are related to a change of volcanic activity" geonet.org.nz

Rumblings at Ruapehu spark alert for planes “Increased rumblings under Mt Ruapehu and a warmer-than-usual crater lake have led authorities to raise alert levels for planes flying over the area. A volcanic eruption is not imminent – the alert level remains at one out of five – but volcanologists say there are subtle signs of unrest under Ruapehu, which last erupted in 2007.. eruptions can occur with little or no warning” NZ Herald 6Apr2011

Facebook comment: “Government has a strong command-and-control civil defence approach, to prevent panic of either NZ or overseas investors, that makes us populace really sacrificial lambs ~0~ ”

Source: Geonet.org.nz Waikato 60 days of Recent Deep Earthquakes 6Jul2011. Update:

Hikurangi Trough continues to move:
Magnitude 4.0, Wednesday, July 6 2011 at 8:21 am (NZST), 40 km south-east of Porangahau

A Northland-Canterbury shake here?:

NZ seismometer drums - GNS 060711

Major quake-lines appear to be asserting themselves and coming to life – SW-NE x 2 = Alpine Fault onto Wairau and Awatere fault areas; SE-NW x 1 = spine of the fish, Te Ika a Maui – all at oblique angles to the Greendale Fault:

GNS recent quakes - 060711a

GNS recent quakes - 060711b

5.7 south-west #Tonga Trench ridge #quake shakes #NZ #eqnz

South-West Tonga magnitude 5.7 - Geonet 260611

Graphic source / watching GeoNet 26Jun11 10am.

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) ref. Magnitude 5.7 – SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS – 2011 June 25 21:16:57 UTC

Mariana Trench 5.1 yesterday, after Alaska 7.2 Friday. Hawaii and California active.

This is the second, stronger ripple across or to NZ in result of late, the first being from a Magnitude 5.0 – KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION early Saturday morning.

Watch for any local ground effects on geonet.org.nz/canterbury-quakes/drums

Canterbury seismometer Drums - Geonet 260611a 10am

Kermadec/Tonga magnitude 5.7 - USGS 260611

USGS graphic. Note, at over 500km deep, this quake (in blue) was around the same distance away from Fiji and Tonga, a third of the distance to Auckland. – Whew! ~ deep tectonic action. NZ Raoul Island pictured here next to main hazard, Kermadec Trench (red line). Raoul Island GeoNet graphic with 5.7 record below.

Raoul Island drum, Tonga Ridge mag' 5.7 - GNS Science 260611

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26/6/11 – 8.30pm and 11 hours later,.. I’m betting on a 5+ #Chch quake within 24 hours. [This didn’t quite happen – yet (a 4.4 did) – so record left intact for development of methodological integrity. 30/6/11]

Enough of the kind of signs I watch for are now in place to say this; e.g.

1. Landfall from the 9.15am 5.7 may just have amplified into this local Northland quake:

Waipu Caves NZ local quake, after Tonga 5.7 trace - GNS 260611

2. Enough of the seismometers in the Canterbury region have again started to ‘drag’ – recording long, grumbling seismic movement instead of the short, sharp energy releases of small quakes:

Canterbury Drums - GNS 260611b

3. Canterbury Quake Live charts currently a reduced number of small quakes, also indicating pent-up friction that should soon be released in quantity. Another 5+ like early last weeks’ is becoming overdue. Big shocks are frequently preceded by rapidly ‘rising pairs’ of smaller shocks [*]:

Canterbury Quake Live with aftershock 'rising pairs' - Crowe.co.nz 260611 11pm

4. Drift east of Greendale Fault cont’d:

Halswell 3.5 - Crowe 260611

5. Seismic activity many local places, another offshore ‘ghost’ ripple – from the Northern Mariana Islands 9.19pm mag’ 5.5? – here apparently triggering a trio of small NZ quakes directly, after something moving Kahutara / Kaikoura undersea canyon:

shakey isles - GNS drums 260611e

6. Big regional Ring of Fire quakes steadily migrating south:

Papua magnitude 6.4 - USGS 270611

Stop Press: 27Jun11 1.20am result.
A Papua sequence 6.4, 5.4, 5.0 now seems to have kicked us off (trace visible @ 60 mins) …
Just so / little-bingo 4.4 :

1.20am mag 4.4 #Chch quake - GeoNet NSN drums 270611b

7. Further background to successful earthquake prediction is being written into earthquake 13 June 2011 InfoHelp page. Read that.

“Rising pair” Method just confirmed, but to a lesser magnitude (so far – yet not expected to rise to a fourth or fifth 5+ level today now [this observed to have been a correct forecast, further refining the method – 30/6/2011]):

1.20am mag 4.4 from a 'rising pair' - Crowe.co.nz Quake Live 270611

[*] N.B. Re “Big shocks are frequently preceded by ‘rising pairs’ of smaller shocks”, further analysis provides the following predictive rule, for watching http://quake.crowe.co.nz etc:

“Magnitude 4+ aftershocks will be preceded by either a rising pair or rising triplet of smaller shocks; whereas magnitude 5+ aftershocks will be preceded by a rising pair, of which the second is a magnitude 4+.” The bigger shocks can quite accurately be foreseen this way 🙂 ~ FINDING! Copyright © Canterbury Technology Ltd 30/6/2011

So, to test and confirm this new aftershock pattern theory, what can be forecast today?:

http://quake.crowe.co.nz/ ~ 300611 @ 1pm

– A strong rising pair has preceded it, therefore there could be a magnitude 4+ aftershock following.

– If there is to be a 5+ aftershock here in Canterbury, it will come from the sudden, ‘unexpected’ (single small prior shock) 4+. – i.e. Not Today (and not wishing to be proven wrong, either 😉

Where will this 4+ shock occur today? – Given this shock progression:
30 Jun 2011 7:23am 3.0 5.0 41.0 km 197 Domain Rd, Oxford 7495, New Zealand
30 Jun 2011 9:39am 3.9 2.0 12.9 km 101 Hamptons Rd, Prebbleton 7676, New Zealand

then the next 3-4 should be on the Port Hills fault, Cashmere / western end, soon (and at Sumner, east-end after that – another / the 4+). Or it could decide to head off under the city and out to sea around Southshore, New Brighton. But there should be a noticeable 4+ somewhere, felt by all.

Let us watch and see.

~ Kia ora

Conclusion 1 July 2011:
Pretty much immediately (2 hours) as I forecast (Port Hills to Sumner aftershocks) though missing the 4+ yet..
We may note with some relief from quake.crowe.co.nz/QuakeEnergy that the rate of daily energy release is declining very quickly now, when compared to after Sept 4 and Feb 22. Yay! 😀

Cass Bay magnitude 2.7 - quake.Crowe.co.nz 300611 3.12pm

Sumner magnitude 3.5 - Crowe 010711 7:47am

Oh! Belatedly, just noticed this was the weekend deep trench effect expected –
Magnitude 3.9, Monday, June 27 2011 at 10:00 am (NZST), 30 km east of Castlepoint Hikurangi Trough:

Hikurangi Trough mag' 3.944 - GNS Google Map 270611

Repeated: Magnitude 3.9, Sunday, July 3 2011 at 8:02 pm (NZST), 50 km east of Castlepoint ; more east coast trench slippage soon? [Proven correct on 04-050711: Taupo 6.5 quake not good news 4 ChristChurch or NZ]

#Antarctic #warming new age of #volcanism

In the southern hemisphere, we are well into another week of heightened seismic activity; or so it seems from the many medium-sized (5+) earthquakes occurring here. There is an eerie subsurface resonance on two sides of the South Pole, with the recent Chilean volcanic eruption probably venting some displaced energy from March 11th’s Sendai 9.0, and definite ripples on the south-western Pacific. “The last eruption of Puyehue volcano was in 1960 following a 9.5 earthquake. An eruption began at Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Volcano on 24th May 1960. The eruption was probably precipitated by the great earthquake in Chile (magnitude 9.5) which occurred on 22nd May 1960. The eruption consisted of an explosive subplinian phase and the formation of a mushroom-like column 8 km high.” Current visual reference: Chile’s Puyehue Volcano Erupts.

Don’t believe it? – Check the sources: usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww & quakes.globalincidentmap.com.

Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge 5.3 USGS 070611

After some Sandwich Islands earthquakes, the southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge has just had a 5.3. This zone presents a mirror echo of southern Australia and New Zealand quakes of late, the biggest a 6.3 (a 6.5 on the Australian scale):

Earthquakes@Geoscience Australia - Macquarie Island 6.5 050611

Source: Earthquakes@Geoscience Australia ga.gov.au/earthquakes

“Read ’em and weep”, sayeth Ruaumoko below.

~ Kia ora

Update: And now Easter Island has chimed in, with a magnitude 4.9:

Easter Island 4.9 USGS 070611

Mount Puyehue in Chile erupts - first time since 1960 - Reuters 050611

Puyehue Volcano in Chile : Real life Mordor Egyptian Chronicles

Mid-Atlantic Ridge 5.3 and Easter Island 4.9 - quakes.globalincidentmap.com 070611

~ Now there’s a very scary line-up indeed – the Earth is peeling like an orange? …

It won’t be anthropogenic global warming that ends human evolution, directly; it will be the toxic atmosphere spewed up by the new age of volcanism that global warming unleashes, alongside emmissions pollution and climate change.

The Earth has been there before, and this is the flipside of global warming – the natural switch for rapid cooling, by global ash-cloud coverage. Next comes The Snowball Earth “when the whole planet appears to have [been] gripped by colossal ice ages” (geology.About.com /controversies) after drastic reduction of oxygen-dependent life, like mammals especially livestock and us.

The plant kingdom can then recover the environmental balance that we previously enjoyed. (Ref. Lovelock and “Gaia” theory).

Here is a consequent forecast/prediction/prophecy that you can bank on: Mount Erebus and its neighbours will erupt increasingly: “The glacier-covered volcano was erupting when first sighted by Captain James Ross in 1841. Continuous lava-lake activity with minor explosions, punctuated by occasional larger strombolian explosions that eject bombs onto the crater rim, has been documented since 1972, but has probably been occurring for much of the volcano’s recent history” Global Volcanism Program

List of volcanoes in Antarctica Wikipedia: Mount Erebus “is part of the Pacific Ring of Fire, which includes over 160 active volcanoes”
Mount Erebus Volcano Observatory MEVO erebus.nmt.edu Live seismometers etc Science+++
Mount Erebus – Antarctic Volcano antarcticconnection.com Science+++
Antarctica Casey Geoscience Australia seismometer + Palmer Station US National Science Foundation seismometer USGS

Surprise! There’s an active volcano under Antarctic ice wattsupwiththat.com January 2008
Under-Ice Volcano Eruption Spewed Ash Over Antarctica “more than 2,000 years ago” news.NationalGeographic.com January 2008
Buried Volcano Discovered in Antarctica “Under the frozen continent’s western-most ice sheet, the volcano erupted about 2,300 years ago yet remains active.. Brooding giant. Although ice buried the unnamed volcano, molten rock is still churning below.. discovery might explain the speeding up of historically slow-moving glaciers in the region.. hidden volcano doesn’t explain widespread thinning of Antarctic glaciers.. ‘This wider change most probably has its origin in warming ocean waters,’.. which most scientists attribute to global warming resulting from human activity, such as the use of fossil fuels..” LiveScience.com January 2008
Scientists Find Active Volcano in Antarctica “For Antarctica, ‘This is the first time we have seen a volcano beneath the ice sheet punch a hole through the ice sheet,’.. Heat from a volcano could still be melting ice and contributing to the thinning and speeding up of the Pine Island Glacier, which passes nearby, but Dr. Vaughan doubted that it could be affecting other glaciers in West Antarctica, which have also thinned in recent years. Most glaciologists.. say that warmer ocean water is the primary cause. Volcanically, Antarctica is a fairly quiet place. But sometime around 325 B.C., the researchers said, a hidden and still active volcano erupted, puncturing several hundred yards of ice above it” NYTimes.com January 2008
Underwater Antarctic volcano found “Research ship documents apparently fresh lava flow ..no previous scientific record of active volcanoes in the region where the new peak was discovered. The volcano is located on the continental shelf, in the vicinity of a deep trough carved out by glaciers passing across the seafloor” msnbc.msn.com Science updated May 2004
Antarctic volcano not melting ice “..Erebus was erupting when members of Capt. James Ross’ 1841 expedition became the first humans to see it. In fact, the eruption at that time was the largest ever seen. Ross named the volcano for his ship, the Erebus. He named another Ross Island volcano Mt. Terror after his other ship. To the ancient Greeks, Erebus was the dark region beneath the earth that spirits had to pass through to get to the realm of Hades below..” USAtoday.com/weather/antarc January 2001 + NOVA program, “Warnings from the Ice” PBS radio April 1998

Antarctica Erupts! “On Mount Erebus, the churning magma is exposed at the top of the volcano, in a roiling 1,700-degree Fahrenheit lake perhaps miles deep.. it had recently broken a two-year quiet spell. Mount Erebus had started acting up in early 2005, and when scientists arrived it was erupting several times a day, each time ejecting 50 or so lava bombs” SmithsonianMag.com/science-nature December 2006

Mount Erebus Volcano Observatory diagram - CO2 degassing

Smithsonian - volcano steam

“Antarctica Erupts! Seemingly dreamed up by Dr. Seuss, Mount Erebus’ improbable ice towers form around steaming vents, growing up to 60 feet before collapsing” – Photos: Smithsonian

Ross Island Map - Wikipedia Mount Erebus

Antarctica location map - Wikipedia Mount Erebus

Another peel of the orange? - Chiapas 5.4 & Hawaii 3.4 080611

Chiapas alignment through Easter Island to Macquarie Island

Extra: Today’s bigger quakes brought further sign of change.. ..Five Injured in 5.3-Magnitude Earthquake in China’s Xinjiang “A specialist with Xinjiang’s earthquake administration said further earthquakes in the region are unlikely.’Quakes over 5-magnitude have rarely been reported in Toksun County over the past 70 years. Citizens do not need to worry'”

Magnitude 6.0 earthquake Southern Peru depth 101.3 km 03:06:18 UTC Wednesday 8th June 2011 – it took about 10 minutes to reach Palmer Station seismometer in Antarctica..

Peru mag 6.0 Palmer Station USGS 080611

and 12 minutes to reach Erebus MEVO Station seismometer Abbot Peak on the other side Antarctica..

Erebus MEVO - Peru 6.0 20110608

For comparison, here is Abbot Peak’s record of the 5 June 2011 Macquarie Island magnitude 6.3 quake:

Erebus - Macquarie Island 6.5 20110605

Antarctic view - Peru 6.0 + Chile shocks / south-west Pacific - USGS 080611

Palmer Station Antarctica 080611

Palmer Station 12 hours later: small local seismicity that does not show up, or relate to any remote event, on the global record. i.e. keep watching Antarctic seismometers to better read Antarctica.

Of course, as with diurnal peaks and troughs of seismic activity, there are seasonal flows and ebbs of earthquakes too – all due to planetary warming (then cooling, in cycles). So we should not expect the heightened Antarctic volcanism until next summer, January to March 2012. Make your bets now. …

12Jun2011 – Unless?!?:

Palmer Station Antarctica 1200611 - unusual movement?

These notes continue on new page Earth vs Capitalism …

Kermadec GeoNet no-show #2 ~ #eqnz

Following my alert at the start of this week, that preceded GNS Science’s quick explanation of last weekend’s shallow quake swarm beneath Lake Taupo, further Kermadec Islands magnitude 5 earthquakes are passing ‘unnoticed’ in New Zealand seismic records, though not overseas:

020611 magnitude 5.1 Kermadec Islands

020611 Pacific Rim - morning

Why is that the case, when again the Kermadec Trench effect can apparently be found on our coastal seismograph records? Here we see the above event at Kaikoura, at the eight-hour mark:

020611 Kaikoura seismometer

Time approx 8am NZST; further, long and steady tectonic grinding is evident. (Hawaii had two small quakes.)

And this too is probably today’s Kermadec quake – the odd-looking shape above ’12 hours ago’ – picked up from Christchurch vicinity, which is why I’m documenting concern..

020611 seismometer Banks Peninsula

With this onshore linked precedent?:
Magnitude 4.4, Wednesday, June 1 2011 at 11:45 am (NZST), 30 km north-east of Opotiki

I urge Kiwi north-east coast readers to keep good watch on quakes.globalincidentmap.com for signs of a Kermadec Islands fore-shock quake swarm, like the magnitude 5 swarm which preceded March 2011’s Sendai offshore magnitude 9.1 earthquake. This may prove to be your best warning, with possible ground-shaking, of devastating north-east coastal tsunami risk. Service is not in place to watch this hazard for you.

~ Kia ora

020511 Pacific Rim - evening

Revisiting, the Australian Plate seems to be showing increased activity north of Australia and New Zealand – with a Solomon Islands 5.4 (after yesterday’s offshore Chile 6.2). This may have seismic implications for both countries…

020611 seismometer Northland

And something big – over 15 minutes of motion – was picked up around Northland, before mid-day NZST.

Another day later (“I told you so”) 4.6 & 4.9 new Kermadec quakes, and a 6.3 near Honshu, Japan:

Pacific Rim quakes June 3, 2011

..looking like the northern Australian Plate shock sequence is coming our way?..

A better view of the north Australian Plate shock sequence – with Kermadec Trench – from NASA/Australia :

northern Australian Plate shock sequence with Kermadec Trench 030611

Australia’s Kermadec region data comes from (?) the US Geological Survey USGS National Earthquake Information Center NEIC World Data Center for Seismology in Denver / World Data Center Strain Database / WDCS-D:

030611 USGS Kermadecs quake cluster magnitude 5.5

– an increasingly active period here

030611 USGS Pacific 11pm

The Kermadec Trench activity impacts around the Bay of Plenty – Urewera – East Cape area, North Island NZ:

030611 NZ recent Quakes - Urewera / East Cape

030611 seismograph drums - magnitude 4.4 near Whakatane

Urewera seismograph 040611 - magnitude 4.4 quake near Whakatane

Tsunami alert in Northland a false alarm – really? Or has it picked up on something seismically significant? …

And is all this southward-trending movement of shocks building up sheer force on the Southern Alps? …

030611 Kaikoura seismograph

030611 Wanaka seismograph

030611 Otago seismograph

Apocalypse believers shocked after appointed hour passes 22 May 2011 “Marie Exley..’Some people were saying it was going to be an earthquake at that specific time in New Zealand and be a rolling judgment, but God is keeping us in our place and saying you may know the day but you don’t know the hour,’ she said Saturday, speaking from Bozeman, Mont. ‘The day is not over, it’s just the morning, and we have to endure until the end.’ On Sunday, a magnitude-6.1 earthquake struck near a group of South Pacific islands about 600 miles off New Zealand, but there were no reports of damage or a risk of a tsunami. The temblor struck under the Kermadec Islands, which has no permanent population…” usatoday.com/news/religion

7.3 quake strikes outer New Zealand islands 29/9/2008 “A 7.3-magnitude earthquake struck near New Zealand’s remote and largely uninhabited Kermadec Islands early Tuesday, New Zealand’s GNS Science geological agency said. New Zealand’s Ministry of Civil Defense issued no tsunami warning following the quake, while the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said in a bulletin on its Web site that ‘no destructive widespread tsunami threat exists based on historical earthquake and tsunami data’ for the Kermadec area. Only the Kermadec’s Raoul Island is inhabited, with up to six New Zealand Department of Conservation workers living there at any time. The Hong Kong Observatory said the quake was centered about 630 miles south-southwest of Nuku’alofa, Tonga and was recorded in Hong Kong at 4:19 a.m. Tuesday, New Zealand time. The U.S. Geological Survey put the magnitude of the quake at 7.0 and said its depth was 12.5 miles.” + Strong quake near Tonga prompts tsunami warning 19/3/2009 usatoday.com/news/world

Kermadec Expedition Auckland Museum May 2011 blog & Earthquake: ground report from the Kermadecs “bubbles rising out of the sand in places around here, a sure sign of something happening underground” + Magnitude 6.1 22 May 2011 The Real Signs blog + Kermadec Mission Auckland Herald blog + Greg O’Brien: the Kermadecs “Poet, painter, writer and curator at large who was one of nine artists from the South Pacific region who travelled to the Kermadec Islands, the most remote part of New Zealand. (19′13″)” Kim Hill radionz.co.nz/sat-20110604 podcast Kermadecs “the second-most deep body of water in the world” … [meaning subduction fault-slip could generate enormous tsunami waves?] …