Category: Alpine fault


Re: Christchurch imaginary killer tsunami

The 14 November early-morning debacle 2016, where false tsunami evacuation alerts panicked so many into a dark night after the Wairau 7.8-magnitude earthquake, was unacceptable waste and fear-mongering cry-wolf. Some had homes looted that public donations then had to compensate.[1] These Christchurch city alarms should not have been sounded for this event, two hours too late anyway. Many chose correctly to ignore them. What is going on? Blame government that does not seem to care or even know how to.

The fact is, government knew there was no tsunami risk from the first evaluation but still allowed the panic to waste massive time and resource energy:

“314
WEPA42 PHEB 140042
TIBPAC

TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
0042 UTC MON NOV 14 2016

…PTWC TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT…

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THIS STATEMENT IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.

NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
INFORMATION.

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
———————————

* MAGNITUDE 6.8
* ORIGIN TIME 0034 UTC NOV 14 2016
* COORDINATES 42.7 SOUTH 173.4 EAST
* DEPTH 10 KM / 6 MILES
* LOCATION SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND

EVALUATION
———-

* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 6.8 OCCURRED IN
SOUTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND AT 0034 UTC ON MONDAY NOVEMBER 14
2016.

* BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA… THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT
FROM THIS EARTHQUAKE.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
——————-

* NO ACTION IS REQUIRED.

NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
————————————–

* THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED OR THE SITUATION CHANGES.

* AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV/EARTHQUAKES -ALL LOWER CASE-.

* FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV AND AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF HAWAII… AMERICAN SAMOA… GUAM… AND
CNMI SHOULD REFER TO PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES
SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE PLACES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA… OREGON… WASHINGTON…
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD ONLY REFER TO U.S.
NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES THAT CAN BE FOUND
AT NTWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.

$$” – http://ptwc.weather.gov/?region=1&id=pacific.TIBPAC.2016.11.14.0042

The initial earthquake magnitude estimates ran:
http://ptwc.weather.gov/ptwc/text.php?id=pacific.TIBPAC.2016.11.13.1113 7.4
http://ptwc.weather.gov/ptwc/text.php?id=pacific.TIBPAC.2016.11.13.1150 7.9
http://ptwc.weather.gov/ptwc/text.php?id=pacific.TIBPAC.2016.11.13.1304 7.9
http://ptwc.weather.gov/ptwc/text.php?id=pacific.TIBPAC.2016.11.14.0042 6.8
http://ptwc.weather.gov/ptwc/text.php?id=hawaii.TIBHWX.2016.11.14.0043 6.8
So the earthquake size was quite accurately known – until downplayed to 6.6 by GNS Science for days – and tsunami danger was accurately ruled out, by the global tsunami warning centre, from the very start.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Cente 13.11.16 finding conformed with the actual known risk, as assessed by the local authority long-term:

Q-Files - Tsunamis extract Environment Canterbury p.8

Q-Files – Tsunamis extract, Environment Canterbury 2006, p.8

“If tsunami warning sirens sound, or you receive an official warning to evacuate, evacuate the coastal evacuation zones for your district.. You will have several hours to evacuate.. The most likely regional tsunami source for Pegasus Bay is the Hikurangi subduction zone fault, off the Wairarapa/Hawke’s Bay/East Coast coast.. A tsunami from this fault would likely take around 1-3 hours to reach Pegasus Bay. It is unlikely to be large here, but it may flood low lying areas around Sumner, the estuary and Lyttelton Harbour. Sea heights above sea level at the time here would probably be around 1-3 metres.. The chances of a local source tsunami being generated by an earthquake in Pegasus Bay are low and have not changed significantly as a result of the recent earthquakes. Scientists have discovered some earthquake faults on the sea floor in Pegasus Bay, but they appear to move very infrequently (once every few thousand or tens of thousands of years). They are not thought to be big enough, and therefore would not produce enough vertical (up and down) movement, to create a significant tsunami that would flood large amounts of land.. Tsunami sirens will be sounded for a distant source tsunami, where they are installed. If you hear the sirens, you must evacuate the tsunami evacuation zones for your district. You will have several hours to evacuate.”
http://ecan.govt.nz/advice/emergencies-and-hazard/tsunami/pages/default.aspx
http://ecan.govt.nz/publications/General/q-files-tsunamis-booklet.pdf from
http://ecan.govt.nz/advice/emergencies-and-hazard/Pages/booklets-q-files.aspx

Clearly officials panicked at seeing tide levels drop suddenly on 14.11.16, without knowing this was because of shoreline up-thrust. These officials then panicked others, and members of the public into leaving their homes unnecessarily, most ignorant of the actual low risk. The wrongly-imprinted hazard image – of a massively destructive high wall of water coming instantly ashore (like the Boxing Day 2004 Aceh, Indonesia or the March 2011 Sendai, Japan tsunami) – DOES NOT APPLY HERE. All this confusion should come out with the promised investigation of the 14.11.16 response. We live in hope, that it will be both a timely and productive investigation.[2]

The public should take from all this the lesson, to learn what actual tsunami risk exists for their home area and take appropriate precautions. Prepare appropriately and do not be panicked about imagined large tsunami risk in Canterbury ever again.

The difference is, the Alpine Fault is our tectonic plate impact zone – strong enough to build very high mountains (transform fault) – and this is the direct opposite kind of tectonic plate impact to that capable of producing tsunami (subduction fault). FACT. Fear not large tsunami here. Please do share and enlighten further.

The Civil Defence earthquake-tsunami mantra, “Long or strong, get gone” is not argued with here as potentially life-saving general education. But Christchurch’s experience of the 14.11.16 Waiau quake was ‘moderately long but not strong’ so it was not valid cause for fearful running from local shores or for official alarm-sounding. The alarm was therefore a misguided political act: to satisfy public expectations (of an alarm) incorrectly set. Let us work together now to repair this widely cast misconception of risk and relevant response.

nzmcdem-tsu

[1] Generosity of strangers wins out for Christchurch family burgled after quake http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/86419856/Generosity-of-strangers-wins-out-for-Christchurch-family-burgled-after-quake + Robbed Christchurch family to share proceeds with other quake victims
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86494324/Robbed-Christchurch-family-to-share-proceeds-with-other-quake-victims + More than 1000 donors give $40,000 to family burgled after tsunami evacuation http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/86473880/more-than-1000-donors-give-40000-to-family-burgled-after-tsunami-evacuation + ‘Vultures’ stole Christchurch father’s van as he prepared to evacuate family after quakes http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/86529225/vultures-stole-christchurch-fathers-van-as-he-prepared-to-evacuate-family-after-quakes + Thieves still at large after Christchurch earthquake evacuee homes burgled http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/86571543/thieves-still-at-large-after-christchurch-earthquake-evacuee-homes-burgled

[2] Tweet: “MCDEM ‏@NZcivildefence Nov 13 [UTC] People on the east coast (including the Chatham Islands) close to the epicentre can expect waves of 3-5 metres. Move to high ground #eqnz”
Earthquake: Deaths, major damage after severe 7.5 quake hits Hanmer Springs, tsunami warning issued “One person died at a property at Mt Lyford, north of Christchurch. The low-lying seaside suburb of Sumner was deserted after residents evacuated, and schools closed for the day. Lyttelton tunnel has been closed until further notice. A New Brighton family who evacuated their home after the quake returned to find their house ransacked by burglars. Matt Mill said they family-of-four had left their home about 2am, after the tsunami risk was broadcast. They returned to their Bower Ave home about 6.30am to find their home damaged, not from the shaking, nor any tsunami, but by burglars who took advantage of a suburb empty of people. Mill said the burglars stole televisions, sports gear and distressingly, a transmitter for his daughter’s hearing aid. His work truck was also stolen. Linwood resident Alice Coats said the tsunami sirens have been going went off intermittently for a couple of hours. The quake felt like a long wave, Coats said. ‘So, we all knew it was a big one.’ As soon as the tsunami warning came in, it was a little more frightening, so she jumped into her car with her flatmate, and went to the airport. Coats said the vagueness of the Civil Defence warnings were frustrating. Tsunami sirens started sounding along Christchurch’s coastline at 2.14am. A significant amount of traffic moved away from New Brighton and other coastal suburbs towards central Christchurch and the Port Hills. Police and Civil Defence have closed the tunnel (State Highway 74), which links Christchurch with the seaside suburb of Lyttelton. The tunnel has been closed temporarily for checks following previous large earthquakes. In the CBD, hotels and occupied buildings were evacuated.” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86416268/Earthquake-Deaths-major-damage-after-severe-7-5-quake-hits-Hanmer-Springs-tsunami-warning-issued 14 November 2016 +
Earthquake: Tsunamis hit, warnings downgraded “Several evacuation centres had been set up in the Waimakariri district, north of Christchurch. Welfare centres had been set up at the Woodend Community Centre, Rangiora Baptist Church, Oxford School Hall, and the Kaiapoi Rugby Club. Linwood College has been set up as a evacuation point for people who have left their home in Christchurch.. People living on low-lying ground within one kilometre of the Christchurch coastline had earlier been advised to evacuate inland or to higher ground as a precaution. Tsunami sirens activated at 2.14am in Christchurch’s coastal suburbs, more than an hour after the first tsunami warnings were issued by Civil Defence. The sirens, located from Brooklands to Taylors Mistake, were meant to sound for about 10 minutes to alert residents they could need to evacuate. A significant amount of traffic could be seen heading away from New Brighton and other coastal suburbs towards central Christchurch and the Port Hills. Early on Monday morning police were driving around the New Brighton area with flashing lights on” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86416653/cheviot-quake-tsunami-warnings-issued (oh-so-wrong?) MCDEM graphic:

Ministry graphic 141116

NZ Ministry of Civil Defence & Emergency Management graphic 141116 – ref. http://twitter.com/NZcivildefence

Coastal Christchurch residents criticise delay in tsunami warning system “A delay activating tsunami warning sirens could have been life-threatening to those living in Christchurch beach suburbs, residents say. Some are demanding answers as to why sirens did not sound until about 2am, two hours after the magnitude-7.5 earthquake struck and an hour after the national civil defence website instructed coastal residents to move to higher ground immediately. ‘Something needs to be done,’ New Brighton resident Shanna Howden said. If there had been a large wave, Howden questioned whether people could have escaped in time. Heavy traffic and bad roads meant it took 45 minutes for them to get out of New Brighton. ‘There must be a way to put something in place to make it a smoother process,’ she said. Tsunami warnings come from the Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management (MCDEM) in Wellington but local authorities are responsible for civil defence emergency management in their own areas. MCDEM posted its first tsunami warning on its website at 1am. The warning was repeated at 1.30am and not lifted until 3.39am. In Christchurch, the tsunami sirens began at 2am and sounded well beyond dawn. However, messages sent by the ministry to the duty officer at the Christchurch City Council and the Canterbury civil defence emergency management group were less clear. Christchurch mayor Lianne Dalziel said she was more interested in learning from the experience than casting blame. ‘I don’t know what went wrong but it’s important we fix this.’ Canterbury civil defence emergency group controller Neville Reilly said the council’s duty officer had relied on the group’s advice. The group’s decision to wait a couple of hours before firing the sirens was done in consultation with a tsunami scientist but without the knowledge that MCDEM was already instructing evacuation on its website. ‘It would have been nice if there wasn’t the confusion coming from emails which were different from the website,’ he said. ‘The worst thing you want to do is cry wolf although safety is paramount. There’s no black and white.’ MCDEM was unable to respond on Monday.” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86439726/coastal-christchurch-residents-criticise-delay-in-tsunami-warning-system 14 November 2016
Christchurch Star https://issuu.com/the.star/docs/116322cs 17 November 2016 (censored?)
Civil Defence overhaul ‘inevitable’ after tsunami warning confusion: Govt 17 November 2016 http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86441740/civil-defence-overhaul-inevitable-after-tsunami-warning-confusion-govt
GNS: Tsunami caught us by surprise http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318506/gns-tsunami-caught-us-by-surprise 20 November 2016 + Govt to push for tsumani text message system http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/318473/govt-to-push-for-tsumani-text-message-system
Civil Defence’s earthquake response to be reviewed http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318584/civil-defence’s-earthquake-response-to-be-reviewed 21 November 2016
Minister criticises GeoNet’s funding call http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318618/minister-criticises-geonet’s-funding-call 22 November 2016
Review of tsunami alerts likely after Kaikoura earthquake “All in all the response to the early morning Kaikoura earthquake seems to have been a bit of a shambles. Frightening for some and a non-event for others.. warning came out from National Civil Defence at 1.20am. Problems had hit the MCDEM website just after 1am with people advised to follow updates on their Facebook and Twitter instead.” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86742260/review-of-tsunami-alerts-likely-after-kaikoura-earthquake 24 November 2016 Comment:
“Straw Man – please decommission the Christchurch ones too. They caused unnecessary panic and are not even required. Many hours to evacuate in the case of a large tsunami, and not required for local quakes – there is no sub-duction zone off the ChCh coast. And yes, im aware of the 0.5m tsunami from the Kaikora EQ. It was not worth evacuating thousands of people. There was more risk of death or injury resulting from panicking drivers doing dumb things. Also, Pegasus bay does not funnel the swell into a confined space such as little pidgeon bay either. Start with a little education a[nd] ditch this ridiculous culture of fear that we have developed.”

etc

Watch 15 Years Of Earthquakes Rock The Planet
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/earthquake-animation-noaa-pacific-tsunami_us_58420f7ce4b0c68e0480f908? 2 December 2016

9 December 2016
Huge earthquake hits off Solomons, sparks tsunami warning for New Zealand “The earthquake triggered possible tsunami threats across the Pacific. Waves between one metre and 3m were possible along some coasts of the Solomon Islands, with waves from 30cm to 1m possible in Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu, the US Pacific Tsunami Warning Center predicted. A tsunami watch for New Zealand had been issued, but since cancelled by Civil Defence” http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/87378899/Huge-earthquake-hits-off-Solomons-sparks-tsunami-warning-for-New-ZealandLive: Huge earthquake strikes Solomon Islands http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/87379714/Live-Huge-earthquake-strikes-Solomon-IslandsInitial reports suggest ‘3000 people affected’ by earthquake off Solomon Islands “A tsunami watch for New Zealand had been issued, but since cancelled by Civil Defence. Civil Defence continued to advise people to stay out of the water owing to the threat of unusual currents, but said there was no threat to beaches and land. Earlier, Civil Defence controller Sarah Stewart-Black had told RNZ this was ‘not the same situation as after the Kaikoura earthquake’. The US Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said tsunami waves were forecast to be less than 30cm for New Zealand. They could take 4-5 hours to arrive, Civil Defence said. Waves between one metre and 3m were possible along some coasts of the Solomon Islands, with waves from 30cm to 1m possible in Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu, the US authority predicted” http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/87378899/81-magnitude-earthquake-hits-solomons–usgs + Magnitude 6.5 earthquake strikes off coast of Northern California “no tsunami warning, advisory or threat in effect following the earthquake”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/87378423/Magnitude-6-5-earthquake-strikes-off-coast-of-Northern-California

16 December 2016
Selwyn Tsunami evacuation plan
http://www.star.kiwi/2016/12/selwyn-tsunami-evacuation-areas/

20 December 2016
Tsunami evacuation plan kept under wraps “New Brighton residents are furious a tsunami evacuation plan for the area, which could have prevented the traffic chaos, was kept under wraps”
http://www.star.kiwi/2016/12/tsunami-evacuation-plan-kept-under-wraps/

21 December 2016
Coping with an increased risk of quakes “are we in the midst of a period of heightened risk?” asserts random dispersion, no pattern to recent large earthquakes: “The 7.8 Kaikoura quake was one of four earthquakes greater than Magnitude 7 in the last 7 years, and one of only five tremors of that magnitude or larger ever recorded in New Zealand. A similar period of increased activity was seen between 1929 and 1942 when New Zealand experienced a third of all earthquakes of magnitude 7 or larger recorded in the last 160 years..” http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/201828532/coping-with-an-increased-risk-of-quakes

25 December 2016
M 7.6 – ISLA CHILOE, LOS LAGOS, CHILE – 2016-12-25 14:22:26 UTC
http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=555101
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/tsunami_msgs/HEBTIBHWX.201612251632

26 December 2016
Book details Wheatsheaf flood after earthquake 1868 & 1960
http://www.star.kiwi/2016/12/book-details-wheatsheaf-flood-after-earthquake/

9 January 2017
Tsunami evacuation spurs action “Civil Defence will be boosted in Little River and Birdlings Flat after residents living near the sea had nowhere to evacuate to after the 7.8 magnitude earthquake on November 14”
http://www.star.kiwi/2017/01/tsunami-evacuation-spurs-action/

11 January 2017
Earthquake rattles Wellington and the upper South Island “hit at 1.19pm on Wednesday, jolting office workers across the capital” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/88313350/Earthquake-rattles-Wellington-and-the-upper-South-Island

12 January 2017
Water in Marlborough aquifers rises after 7.8-magnitude earthquake “gaps between the gravel that formed the aquifers had shrunk, causing wells to spill over.. too early to say whether the 7.8-magnitude quake had caused any permanent damage to the underground water network” http://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/88274851/water-in-marlborough-aquifers-rises-after-78magnitude-earthquake

[post under edit – return to read more later – thanks for viewing]

Changes to follow tsunami confusion in Christchurch 7 April 2017
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/91330663/changes-to-follow-tsunami-confusion-in-christchurch

Tsunami evacuations: What went wrong? 7 April 2017
http://www.star.kiwi/2017/04/tsunami-evacuations-what-went-wrong/

Plan to improve tsunami response released “staff, police and Mayor Lianne Dalziel were confused about conflicting messages between national and local Civil Defence” 12 August 2017
http://www.star.kiwi/2017/08/plan-to-improve-tsunami-response/

The real and major risk for mid-Canterbury is not coastal – Project AF8: http://projectaf8.co.nz/ – Alpine Fault Magnitude 8

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GNS Science head office, like most New Zealand government, resides in Wellington region. There, existential angst competes heavily with Auckland for economic weight and centre of gravity. So Wellington treats the South Island as a private back yard – to be seen, not heard, exploited for all it is worth and insistently ignored and mis-spoken for. ‘It is all about us’, believes the capital, almost always. This hard-to-dislodge perspective explains constant nonsense from official sources over the 14-Nov-2016 magnitude-7.8 earthquake, particularly where it actually took place (and what it did). You would think GNS could not read a map or never travelled a secondary highway, to have located this earthquake as “Culverden”. They have a convention of approximating, to name larger centres that people may have heard of, only. This generalising is unhelpful. Locating the historically-large earthquake accurately is key to understanding it and its implications.

This was a “Wairau” earthquake, as the epicentre map shows – so why aren’t the authorities saying that? Why has this earthquake become about “Wellington” and “Kaikoura” exceptionally? Yes, people have sadly died or become most isolated in the latter town, and have our condolences and full support through that, with buildings lost at both places. But this is governance by spin: intentional confusion to deflect risk – to benefit who, we may ask? Tsunami alarm and quake interpretation questions abound – what is really happening? Where is it happening? Public discourse to be urgently joined. Lives depend on getting this very public knowledge correct.

Canterbury magnitude 5 to 7.8 EQs 13-21 Nov2016

Canterbury magnitude 5 to 7.8 earthquake and aftershocks, 13-21 November 2016 – http://quakesearch.geonet.org.nz

For comparison, Marlborough magnitude 5 to 6 earthquakes, 13-18 November 2016

For comparison, Marlborough magnitude 5 to 6 aftershocks, 13-21 November 2016 – much fewer and smaller

Canterbury 7.8-magnitude earthquake epicentre 141116

Canterbury 7.8-magnitude earthquake epicentre 14Nov2016 http://www.geonet.org.nz/quakes/region/newzealand/2016p858000

Journalists often muddy the water – Cheviot earthquake: Tracing the source of the 7.5 magnitude quake “It appeared to have been a complex earthquake, and scientists were looking into whether it ruptured two separate fault planes, or whether it could be considered just a single rupture. The epicentre of the quake was close to the Hope Fault. The Kaikoura area, where the Hope Fault went offshore, was strongly affected. Despite that, the pattern of events did not necessarily suggest a Hope Fault event, [GNS Science duty seismologist Dr Anna] Kaiser said. The Hope Fault was one of the major faults through Marlborough and North Canterbury that marked the boundary between the Pacific and Australian Plates. Those faults merged near Otira to form the Alpine Fault, which ran along the western edge of the Southern Alps. Looking back over hundreds of thousands of years, the Hope Fault was considered to have one of the highest slip rates among those faults. It was an important structure in accommodating plate movement in that part of the country, Kaiser said. ‘This earthquake occurred right along that line of very active deformation.’ The Marlborough fault system was a kind of transition zone between the Alpine Fault and the subduction interface between the tectonic plates under the North Island. ‘So far, it doesn’t look to be the Hope Fault, rather (and perhaps more concerning) it seems to have ruptured across the Hope Fault,’ USGS seismologist Professor Kevin Furlong said. ‘Most/many aftershocks extend to Cook Strait, implying that the rupture may have extended quite a bit to the north. One concern is whether this has involved any of the subduction plate boundary that starts up at Kaikoura and extends along the [east coast of the] North island. At a minimum, it may have changed the stress conditions on the main megathrust interface – we are exploring that possibility right now'” – deftly shifting the focus to Wellington.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86416880/cheviot-earthquake-tracing-the-source-of-the-quake 14 November 2016
Research https://www.gns.cri.nz/Home/News-and-Events/Media-Releases/Rutherford-Award 11 November 2016

Naming the river floodplains involved is extremely important as these often follow fault lines, in north Canterbury and Marlborough especially – a crucial point for understanding the moving landscape: what is moving, why and when. The Wairau event aftershock trace mostly identifies the Hope Fault, joining directly as it does the massive offshore-Kaikoura Hikurangi Trough (to the Alpine Fault). It is ultimately movement in this huge connected structure that we see affecting land. Seismic force and aftershocks moving in the direction of Wellington should not be confused with the substantive event, but they have been, influential as they are.

Canterbury aftershocks, 14-21 November 2016

Canterbury aftershocks, 14-21 November 2016 – http://quakesearch.geonet.org.nz/

Canterbury aftershocks, 14-21 November 2016

Canterbury aftershocks, 14-21 November 2016 – http://www.christchurchquakemap.co.nz/week

Canterbury aftershocks, 14-21 November 2016 - far view

Canterbury aftershocks, 14-21 November 2016 – http://www.christchurchquakemap.co.nz/week – far view

The zoom out illustrates two things: the offshore trench-fault that runs through land north of Kaikoura as the Hope Fault; that aftershocks are now reaching and accumulating stress along this at the Alpine Fault to the west.

GNS add to confusion – M7.8 Kaikoura quake the biggest since the Dusky Sound jolt in 2009 – 15/11/2016 “Named the Kaikoura earthquake, scientists are describing it as a complex rupture sequence that produced ground-shaking that lasted for about two minutes and was felt throughout the country. It was centered east of Hanmer Springs at a depth of 15km” https://www.gns.cri.nz/Home/News-and-Events/Media-Releases/M7.8-Kaikoura-quake 14 November 2016 – are they afraid of naming Waiau (and Hope)?

The focus is kept upon effects in the Wellington area – Seismologists record 2 metre shift south of Marlborough “The largest aftershocks were close to the Hope Fault, the line running across the centre of the map. The earth moved two metres to the north in Marlborough during Monday morning’s major earthquake, according to data from GNS Science.. the ground moved horizontally 2 metres to the north and vertically down a metre”

www.USGS.gov ground force map for 141116

http://www.USGS.gov ground force map for 141116

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86429681/seismologists-record-2-metre-shift-south-of-marlborough 14 November 2016 – local info presented may always be the best.

Sensational coverage becomes the fact: ‘Absolutely mind blowing’: Aerial photos ‘show seabed lift’ north of Kaikoura https://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/33218262/absolutely-mind-blowing-aerial-photos-show-seabed-lift-north-of-kaikoura/#page1 + Wellington Earthquake: If it struck at a different time, it could have been “much worse” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86453972/earthquake-if-it-struck-at-a-different-time-it-could-have-been-much-worse 15 November 2016

New Zealand’s Tectonic Dragon Awakens “beneath its verdant carpet, New Zealand is still under active construction. It occupies one of the most complex geologic venues on the globe, at the messy boundary of two tectonic plates.. violent, episodic upheavals that shake the seemingly tranquil hills” http://www.newyorker.com/tech/elements/new-zealands-tectonic-dragon-awakens 15 November 2016

Christchurch councils sends staff, resources to quake-hit Kaikoura https://ccc.govt.nz/the-council/newsline/show/1169 15 November 2016

GeoNet Kaikoura earthquake update: Magnitude revised http://info.geonet.org.nz/display/home/2016/11/16/Kaikoura+earthquake+update%3A+Magnitude+revised 16 November 2016 + ref. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/
M7.8 – 53km NNE of Amberley, New Zealand
2016-11-13 11:02:56 UTC 42.757°S 173.077°E 23.0 km depth
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us1000778i#executive +
Magnitude Mw 7.9
Region SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
Date time 2016-11-13 11:02:58.4 UTC
Location 42.69 S ; 172.97 E
Depth 10 km
http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=545040 7.9
http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=545057 6.4
http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=545073 6.1
http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=545103 6.2
+ http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/ (current)

While At quake’s epicentre, residents of Waiau watch helicopters destined for elsewhere “Waiau, population 280, is slowly returning to normality following the 7.8-magnitude earthquake that struck five kilometres away.. The town’s water supply has been restored but a separate feed to all rural properties was badly damaged and still broken. [Hamish] Dobbie said the council was working “really hard” to assist farmers who were running low on stock water. He hoped to have the water flowing in about a week. It has been a bitter pill to swallow for the community already struggling through a drought – a disaster within a disaster. Farmers near Waiau waved desperately at helicopters headed for Kaikoura, hoping they would stop.. It was hard not to feel forgotten as helicopters headed for Kaikoura, considering that Waiau was at the centre of it all. ‘I feel Waiau was a bit left out,” [Brenda] Smith said. ‘Even when it was first reported it was so many [kilometres] from Culverden, so many [kilometres] from Hanmer. I get it, we’re all hurting and Kaikoura is isolated … but yeah.'” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86594300/waiau-farmers-face-weeks-wait-for-water + Civil Defence overhaul ‘inevitable’ after tsunami warning confusion: Govt http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86441740/civil-defence-overhaul-inevitable-after-tsunami-warning-confusion-govt + Mayor thanks those involved in evacuation effort https://ccc.govt.nz/the-council/newsline/show/1186 17 November 2016

Quake sparked more movements in Marlborough faults than first thought http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/318248/quake-sparked-more-movements-in-marlborough-faults-than-first-thought 17 November 2016

“Scientists know a tide gauge at Kaikoura rose 90cm during Monday’s magnitude-7.8 earthquake, but that’s one of the few pieces of detailed data so far about how much the level of the coastline has risen. There is also information about land movement from a network of continuous GPS stations run by GeoNet and Linz showing a rise of around a metre at Cape Campbell, at the southern end of Clifford Bay. Data from the stations also show Cape Campbell moved horizontally northeast by 2-3 metres. ..Many anecdotal reports suggest a two-metre rise at the coast, and there’s even one report of a reef rising six metres”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86565581/finding-out-how-much-the-earth-moved-during-massive-earthquake 18 November 2016

Quake action formed Hanmer Springs but latest quake passed it by “The Hanmer Fault runs right through the township and is the noticeable rise you go up as you head north towards the pools. On the other side of the basin lies the Hope Fault, one of the major seismic features of the region which starts at the Alpine Fault near Inchbonnie on the West Coast and slices its way across North Canterbury before heading offshore just north of Kaikoura. It’s this eastern part of the Hope Fault that some scientists now believe could be at risk of rupturing if enough stress has been transferred on to it from Monday’s large quake.. GeoNet director Dr Ken Gledhill said the quake rupture took the path of least resistance northeastwards up the coast from close to Waiau where it began. ‘It’s kind of strange, it’s like the epicentre in this case is almost a meaningless concept.’ It’s where the action started but it must have started weakly and then slowly built up steam. So Hanmer just happened to be relatively close to where the epicentre, but not the real action, was. The real burst of energy that contributed to most of the magnitude was between Kaikoura and Cape Campbell. It raced up towards Cape Campbell and then it basically stopped.’ Fortunately, Cook Strait, with its offset faults, had acted like a barrier and halted the quake in its tracks, Gledhill said. It was the sudden deceleration which raised the coastal strip by up to 1 metre and shunted that part of the South Island 2m closer to Wellington, rather like a car braking sharply to a stop and the passengers being thrown suddenly up and forward. If you could create a big-enough map of the northern South Island and southern North Island you would be able to see how the islands have stretched, shrunk and otherwise changed shape since 12.02am on Monday. The quake moved Kaikoura about 1m further northeast and upwards 70 cm, and Hanmer Springs jumped east about 50 cm. Wellington and the Kapiti Coast are now 2 to 6cm further north, Christchurch and Banks Peninsula have shifted 2cm south and some parts of the West Coast are now 10cm closer to Canterbury than they were” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86554866/quake-action-formed-hanmer-springs-but-latest-quake-passed-it-by 18 November 2016

NIWA diverts ship to earthquake areas https://niwa.co.nz/news/niwa-diverts-ship-to-earthquake-areas 18 November 2016

CCC Coastal residents urged to have evacuation plan
https://ccc.govt.nz/the-council/newsline/show/1190

GNS Kaikoura shoreline movement, 14 Nov 2016

GNS Kaikoura shoreline movement, 14 Nov 2016

‘Startling’ rise of 5.5 metres in piece of coastline during Kaikoura earthquake confirms quake energy has spanned the Hope Fault – the Kekerengu Fault has just moved about 10 metres horizontally, or about half of its 20-25m known movement per 1,000 years. That much sudden, imminent movement is scarily awesome. Note the Hope Fault is near where shoreline rise has been the greatest, at 3-3.5 metres. http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86703833/startling-rise-of-55-metres-in-piece-of-coastline-during-kaikoura-earthquake 21 November 2016

Greedy, short-sighted economic actors are multipliers of natural risk. Korean charter flights pulled post earthquake – “The tourism industry and government agencies were also deliberately calling it the ‘Kaikoura earthquake’ because referring to north Canterbury gave the impression that Christchurch had been affected, when it had not”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/86604299/korean-charter-flights-pulled-post-earthquake 18 November 2016

We must remember, and anticipate, the main event.

And the Wellington earthquake – in the South Island – origins.

This 7.8 was exactly where I forecast and warned of, as next in the Canterbury earthquake sequence we are – if lucky, or god will it – living through.

More information: https://www.gns.cri.nz/Home/Our-Science/Natural-Hazards/Recent-Events/Kaikoura-Earthquake

RadioNZ
There was never a risk of a tsunami, says seismologist “We are way over-playing the size and the role of tsunamis. And this is happening in a lot of other places too, because unfortunately we are in a period of science where, to get funding, you have to scare the hell out of the public.” http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/318338/there-was-never-a-risk-of-a-tsunami,-says-seismologist 18 November 2016
Stories from the quakes Insight http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/insight/audio/201824385/insight-earthquake-surviving-7-point-8 19 November 2016
GNS: Tsunami caught us by surprise http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318506/gns-tsunami-caught-us-by-surprise +
Govt to push for tsumani text message system http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/318473/govt-to-push-for-tsumani-text-message-system 20 November 2016
Civil Defence’s earthquake response to be reviewed http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318584/civil-defence’s-earthquake-response-to-be-reviewed +
Crayfish and pāua fisheries shut down on quake-hit coast http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318599/’high-and-dry,-and-now-unfortunately-rotting’ +
Quake-hit Kaikōura still isolated by road http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318538/quake-hit-kaikoura-still-isolated-by-road 21 November 2016
Minister criticises GeoNet’s funding call http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318618/minister-criticises-geonet’s-funding-call 22 November 2016

21 November 2016
Morning, Nine to Noon on http://www.radionz.co.nz News, Dr Kelvin Berryman for GNS Science discusses 14.11.2016 mag-7.8 quake fault research results and questions at variance from USGS findings (no link readily available)

This evening’s television illustrated the overwhelming interest we all have in our own local geological hazards: TV1 Seven Sharp asked ‘Is the capital in the right place?’ (lost link?); while TV3 Story looked at new research modelling of an Auckland tsunami.

22 November 2016
Scientists detect huge fault rupture offshore from Kaikoura
https://niwa.co.nz/news/scientists-detect-huge-fault-rupture-offshore-from-kaikoura
Huge fault rupture stretches 34km offshore from Kaikoura http://www.stuff.co.nz/sunday-star-times/latest-edition/latest-news/86752499/Huge-fault-rupture-stretches-34km-offshore-from-Kaikoura

The best clear explanation, through animations, of how the 7.8-magnitude earthquake propagated and exactly which faults where did move the earth, though again generalising the start as “near Culverden”:
Watching the M7.8 Kaikoura Quake Dominos Fall in Real Time

GNS M7.8 Kaikoura Quake Dominos video 2

GNS M7.8 Kaikoura Quake Dominos video 2

http://info.geonet.org.nz/display/quake/2016/11/23/Watching+the+M7.8+Kaikoura+Quake+Dominos+Fall+in+Real+Time

Tremors rattle Hawke’s Bay as ‘silent earthquake’ shunts East Coast after 7.8 quake http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86715367/Tremors-rattle-Hawkes-Bay-as-silent-earthquake-shunts-East-Coast-after-7-8-quake

Magnitude-5.7 big aftershock that GNS generalises unhelpfully again as “Culverden” area, when it has badly affected Scargill township where a whole new quake sequence is located in their Hurunui River tributary valley. Far too vague! http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/318713/aftershock-damages-north-canterbury-homes
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86758316/Earthquake-Aftershocks-rumble-through-night-after-5-7-shake
This is what preceded the Scargill mag-5.7, by 1 minute and 23 seconds, a local foreshock of 4.8:

GNS screenshot 2016-11-22 Scargill 4.8-magnitude foreshock aftershock

GNS screenshot 2016-11-22 Scargill 4.8-magnitude foreshock aftershock

http://www.geonet.org.nz/quakes/region/newzealand/2016p881666 83 seconds before
http://www.geonet.org.nz/quakes/region/newzealand/2016p881669 magnitude-5.7 Scargill quake

23 November 2016
The Future of New Zealand’s Coastlines
“The massive uplift after the 7.8 magnitude quake has changed Kaikoura’s coastline significantly. With a new reef forming as the land moved up, by as much as six metres along the fault plain. But do we know what the future of New Zealand’s coastline will look like? Just-published tectonic research gives some insight into what sea levels could be in the future. And the satellitle observations show parts of New Zealand, are sinking at faster rates than others, and will be subjected to higher levels of future sea level rise. Co-author of the research is Professor Tim Stern, of Victoria University’s School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences.” – RadioNZ Afternoons 231116

Prof Tim Stern research RadioNZ 231116

Prof Tim Stern research RadioNZ 231116

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/afternoons/audio/201825015/the-future-of-new-zealand’s-coastlines

24 November 2016
Geonet ‘puzzled’ by aftershock sequence following the Kaikoura quake http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86813422/geonet-puzzled-by-aftershock-sequence-following-the-kaikoura-quake
West Coast Civil Defence retracts ‘large aftershock’ warning http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/west-coast-warned-to-prepare-for-possible-massive-aftershock-2016112418
https://www.westlanddc.govt.nz/update-west-coast-civil-defence
http://www.wcrc.govt.nz/our-services/civil-defence-emergency-management/Pages/
Rotorua Museum closed over quake-damage concerns http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318833/rotorua-museum-closed-over-quake-damage-concerns

25 November 2016
West Coast Civil Defence aftershock warning ‘irresponsible’ – Mayor http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/west-coast-civil-defence-aftershock-warning-irresponsible—mayor-2016112510
Large aftershocks a possibility, but there are no ‘urgent warnings’ http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86852615/large-aftershocks-a-possibility-but-there-are-no-urgent-warnings + Earthquake: Large aftershock urgent warning criticised “West Coast Civil Defence regional manager Chris Raine.. ‘an area in the Arthurs Pass just to the west of the divide is generating small earthquakes with several in the last few days that are being felt in Westland’.. [then CD chief] Stuart-Black said ‘Right from day one I’ve been saying that there is a likelihood that we would experience another large aftershock which could be as big as what we experienced just after midnight on 14th but could in fact be potentially larger’ http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86863920/earthquake-large-aftershock-urgent-warning-criticised
So no news is good news? – http://www.civildefence.govt.nz/resources/declared-states-of-emergency/ – where are the official media releases from MCDEM? See https://www.facebook.com/NzGetThru/posts/1237250506334040 etc + https://www.facebook.com/CanterburyEM/
CCC – “The local state of emergency that has been in place in Canterbury for the past week has been extended until November 29” – https://ccc.govt.nz/the-council/newsline/show/1187 + “Self evacuate – don’t wait for the tsunami sirens – if it’s long or strong, get gone” – https://ccc.govt.nz/services/civil-defence/what-to-do-in-an-emergency/tsunami/evacuating/
GeoNet M7.8 Kaikoura Quake: Future Scenarios and Aftershock Forecasts Update 25 Nov 2016 15.00
“Scenario Three: Extremely unlikely (<1% within the next 30 days)
A much less likely scenario than the previous two scenarios is that recent earthquake activity will trigger an earthquake larger than the M7.8 mainshock. This includes the possibility for an earthquake of greater than M8.0, which could be on the 'plate interface' (where the Pacific Plate meets the Australian Plate). Although it is still very unlikely, the chances of this occurring have increased since before the M7.8 earthquake." http://info.geonet.org.nz/display/quake/2016/11/14/M7.8+Kaikoura+Quake%3A+Future+Scenarios+and+Aftershock+Forecasts + Stress and the earthquakes http://info.geonet.org.nz/pages/viewpage.action?pageId=20545958

26 November 2016
Central New Zealand shaken awake by magnitude 4.6 Cook Strait earthquake http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86900233/Central-New-Zealand-shaken-awake-by-magnitude-4-6-earthquake
Updated: Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay slow-slip event now extends to include Kapiti and Manawatu regions following M7.8 Kaikoura Quake http://info.geonet.org.nz/display/quake/2016/11/21/Updated%3A+Gisborne+and+Hawke%27s+Bay+slow-slip+event+now+extends+to+include+Kapiti+and+Manawatu+regions+following+M7.8+Kaikoura+Quake

GNS slow-slip movements 26Nov2016

GNS slow-slip movements 26Nov2016

27 November 2016
‘Strong’ magnitude 4.8 quake rattles central New Zealand https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/strong-magnitude-4-8-quake-rattles-central-new-zealand

28 November 2016
Three sharp earthquakes rattle central NZ, jolts continue overnight http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86926530/Three-sharp-earthquakes-rattle-central-NZ-jolts-continue-overnight
Rotorua woken by 30m geyser eruption http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/rotorua-woken-by-30m-geyser-eruption-2016112810
‘The village is erupting!’ Water shot 30m into the air on Lake Rotorua, giving locals a fright https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/village-erupting-water-shot-30m-into-air-lake-rotorua-giving-locals-fright
Rotorua geyser erupts like a shaken bottle of fizzy drink http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/319092/geyser-erupts-like-a-shaken-bottle-of-fizzy-drink + Geyser eruption sends water 30m into the air http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/201825617/geyser-eruption-sends-water-30m-into-the-air
Geyser eruptions in Rotorua coincide with earthquake activity http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86935777/Geyser-eruptions-in-Rotorua-coincide-with-earthquake-activity
Kaikoura quake could be behind ‘silent earthquakes’ http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/319093/kaikoura-quake-could-be-behind-‘silent-earthquakes&#8217;
Slow-slip earthquakes detected in Kapiti and Manawatu, joining Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86927682/Slow-slip-earthquakes-detected-in-Kapiti-and-Manawatu-joining-Gisborne-and-Hawkes-Bay
Watch: Incredible new images from space show how Kaikoura’s earth jolted apart https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/watch-incredible-new-images-space-show-kaikouras-earth-jolted-apart?auto=5225981168001

29 November 2016
‘Unusual’ geothermal activity at Lake Rotorua – GNS
http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/unusual-geothermal-activity-at-lake-rotorua-2016112823
Are earthquakes and geyser eruptions related? ‘No, Taupo and Tarawera eruptions have a roughly 1,000 year return period, Auckland every 1-2,000 years..’
http://www.newshub.co.nz/tvshows/paulhenry/are-earthquakes-and-geyser-eruptions-related-2016112913
Scientists’ research trench slips nine metres in Kaikoura Earthquake http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/86972668/scientists-research-trench-slips-nine-metres-in-kaikoura-earthquake

30 November 2016
Another geyser erupts in Rotorua
http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/another-geyser-erupts-in-rotorua-2016113015
Weather might have caused second eruption in Rotorua http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/319291/weather-might-have-caused-second-eruption-in-rotorua

Become better prepared – https://happens.nz

USGS 141116 mag-7.8 shakemap - Waiau

USGS 141116 mag-7.8 shakemap – Waiau – http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us1000778i#map

This USGS shake-intensity map locates: a) the Pacific plate and Australian plate tectonic boundary; b) Wairau River as central to the mag-7.8 EQ fault action – confirmed (therefore USGS have this epicentre listed wrongly?)

Synchronicity with Alpine Fault movement is precise – “at least three past large earthquakes had occurred in the last 1250 years. These initial results confirmed that the Kekerengu Fault was capable of producing large earthquakes frequently (on average, about every 300 or 400 hundred years)” – how long delayed is the M7.8 Waiau flow-on effect, to an Alpine M8-9, being the only question. As in weeks, months, years or decades? … Further large stress input is not needed. – Kekerengu Fault has a Word to its Geologists http://info.geonet.org.nz/display/quake/2016/11/28/Kekerengu+Fault+has+a+Word+to+its+Geologists

1 December 2016
“Kēkerengū Fault.. in the last 1200 years.. this fault has ruptured three times – and now it’s the fourth time.. between 30 and 50 percent chance of having a great earthquake on the Alpine Fault in the next 50 years”
Fault unlocks new geological data
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/319319/fault-unlocks-new-geological-data
Warnings sounded over NZ’s Transport resilience http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/201826002/warnings-sounded-over-nz’s-transport-resilience
Giant underwater landslide in the Kaikōura Canyon http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ourchangingworld/audio/201825860/giant-underwater-landslide-in-the-kaik-ura-canyon
Slow slips could raise quake risk: GeoNet http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/slow-slips-could-raise-quake-risk-geonet-2016120117
“GNS volcanologist Brad Scott says the geyser was more likely due to weather than to seismic activity” Geyser erupts for second time in Lake Rotorua http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/201825984/geyser-erupts-for-secnd-time-in-lake-rotorua

2 December 2016
Lake Rotorua eruptions ‘not related’ to M7.8, say GNS.. despite its very long reach? :
Earthquake leaves Rotorua Museum closed ‘until further notice
http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/earthquake-leaves-rotorua-museum-closed-until-further-notice-2016120214

September 2015, one year ago: Rotorua geyser bursts into life after 35 years http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/201769992/rotorua-geyser-bursts-into-life-after-35-years + in sequence before that:
Seismic studies shed light on natural disaster risk “the build-up to an eruption from Auckland’s volcanos would be more accelerated than those for volcanos elsewhere” http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/59423/seismic-studies-shed-light-on-natural-disaster-risk 13 October 2010 [then 4.9.2010, 22.2.2011 etc Canterbury quakes..]
New lakes formed by Mt Tongariro’s eruption http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/112694/new-lakes-formed-by-mt-tongariro’s-eruption 8 August 2012
New crater blasted on White Island http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/regional/302697/new-crater-blasted-on-white-island 30 April 2016
Mt Ruapehu still shaking http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/303667/mt-ruapehu-still-shaking 12 May 2016
Scientists prepare for Lake Taupo eruption http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/regional/305214/scientists-prepare-for-lake-taupo-eruption 30 May 2016
+ Preceding the 14.11.2016 mag-7.8 was Hydrothermal activity in Lake Rotorua “A collaboration between the New Zealand Defence Force and GNS Science has picked up hydrothermal activity in Lake Rotorua.. ‘This work is the first step in a series of surveys that we hope will ultimately determine how much heat is being discharged through the lake floor from an underlying magma source, with the results feeding into our long-term hazards assessment of the area.’ The six-week survey ends next week. It covered about 40 percent of the lake floor.” http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/317947/hydrothermal-activity-in-lake-rotorua 12 November 2016

4 December 2016
Kaikōura’s new coast shown by NASA photos http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/319560/kaikoura’s-new-coast-shown-by-nasa-photos

7 December 2016
Nine faults ruptured in Kaikoura quake “but the Hope Fault barely moved.. there could be three segments to the Hope Fault, which moved about 10cm at Half Moon Bay.. GNS was in the process of building a map of the faults” http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/319798/nine-faults-ruptured-in-kaikoura-quake
10 faults known to have ruptured in Kaikoura quake, more likely “The quake started with the rupture of the Humps Fault Zone, near Culverden, [Dr Nicola Litchfield, head of the GNS Science active landscapes department].. said. That seemed to have triggered the next fault along, which had triggered the next one and so on all the way to the Needles Fault – the offshore continuation of the Kekerengu Fault. ‘The movement in each of those [faults] was big enough it triggered the next to go in the same earthquake,’ she said. The faults that went must have been ready to go. The large Hope Fault hadn’t ruptured. “Basically it jumped over the Hope Fault and didn’t rupture that except for a tiny bit at the coast,” Litchfield said. ‘In this area there are a lot of faults. The thing is before this earthquake we didn’t think so many were going to rupture in one earthquake. I guess that’s the big surprise.’ It was unlikely the combination of faults in the Kaikoura earthquake would be repeated. The Kekerengu Fault went every 300-400 years. In contrast, it wasn’t known how often the faults at the south of the rupture zone went, but it was thought to be thousands, or tens of thousands of years between ruptures.”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/87292211/10-faults-known-to-have-ruptured-in-kaikoura-quake-more-likely

9 December 2016
Central NZ tsunami risk may be higher due to undiscovered offshore faults “GNS Science geophysicist Dr William Power said the 14 November tremor provided an ‘interesting puzzle’ in terms of where the tsunami was generated.. the tsunami might have reached 4 metres in some areas of the Kaikoura coast. However, the fact the quake struck close to low tide and that the land was uplifted at the same time reduced the extent of inundation. ‘A better understanding of the fault movements offshore in the Kaikoura earthquake will help us better evaluate the tsunami risks in central New Zealand.'”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/87301480/central-nz-tsunami-risk-may-be-higher-due-to-undiscovered-offshore-faults

15 December 2016
Restrictions on building along Alpine Fault in Franz Josef scrapped
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/87604696/restrictions-on-building-along-alpine-fault-in-franz-josef-scrapped

16 December 2016
Scientists find evidence the Earth’s crust ripped apart to create a 7km deep abyss off Banda, Indonesia http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/87647721/scientists-find-evidence-the-earths-crust-ripped-apart-to-create-a-7km-deep-abyss

[post under edit – return to read more later – thanks for viewing]

M7.8 Kaikoura quake the biggest since the Dusky Sound jolt in 2009 – 15/11/2016
https://www.gns.cri.nz/Home/News-and-Events/Media-Releases/M7.8-Kaikoura-quake

Canterbury Earthquake Research Programme 2012-15 “In Budget 2011, Government made available to the Platform $12M GST ex for studies that addressed the impacts of the Canterbury earthquakes and lessons that could be applied to other centres” – So why stop there? …
https://www.naturalhazards.org.nz/NHRP/Publications/Establishment-Strategy/Canterbury-EQ-Programme

NZ moving to ‘period of more earthquakes’ 15 November 2016
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/318095/nz-moving-to-‘period-of-more-earthquakes&#8217;

The Mountains Moved 00.02 14.11.2016
https://assets.stuff.co.nz/interactives/special-features/the-mountains-moved/index.html

Quake claims top $900m “New Zealand businesses have lodged more than $900 million in insurance claims since the Kaikōura earthquake”
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/business/323574/quake-claims-top-$900m

Did November’s 7.8 shake create a ‘quake lake’ in the Tararuas? 20 March 2017
http://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/90608086/Did-Novembers-7-8-shake-create-a-quake-lake-in-the-Tararuas

Large earthquake risk remains high “15 percent likelihood of a magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake striking New Zealand in the next month” 20 March 2017
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/327036/large-earthquake-risk-remains-high

Quake-hit residents fear insurance woes 24 March 2017
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/327322/quake-hit-residents-fear-insurance-woes

Major earthquake could split Wellington region into ‘seven islands’ 24 March 2017
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/90790889/Major-earthquake-could-split-Wellington-region-into-seven-islands

Kaikoura earthquake moved the South Island, new research shows 24 March 2017
http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/90769048/kaikoura-earthquake-moved-the-south-island-new-research-shows

Kaikōura quake moved South Island 5 metres 24 March 2017
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/327328/kaikoura-quake-moved-south-island-5-metres

Extreme heat detected beneath the Southern Alps “New Zealand scientists drilling into the Alpine Fault on the West Coast have found much higher temperatures than expected – which as well as being scientifically exciting could also be commercially very significant for New Zealand. They’ve drilled nearly 900 metres into the Alpine Fault at Whataroa – finding geothermal conditions comparable with Taupo, but there are no volcanoes in Westland. Kathryn Ryan talks to Victoria University’s John Townend” RNZ 18 May 2017
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/201844259/extreme-heat-detected-beneath-the-southern-alps

Whataroa Valley research site, Victoria University

Whataroa Valley research site at Alpine Fault – Victoria University supplied pic, May 2017


+ The sleeping dragon: Researchers find blazing heat beneath the Southern Alps The Press http://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/92669729/the-sleeping-dragon-researchers-find-blazing-heat-beneath-the-southern-alps

Noting a return of readers to my blog today, probably looking for New Zealand earthquake analysis, I will rattle this post off quickly, as a catch-up on a previously strong theme to my writing. Then I will take a good long walk to relax. As should we all.

Having accurately forecast, to within 50 minutes, a magnitude 4.7 Christchurch earthquake yesterday, what are my afterthoughts about this? Under-earth events continue for the country and are detailed here: #Masterton‬ mag 5.2 ‪#‎eqnz‬ this morning is not alone..”[1] (Read research at footnote link). The title is only more fitting, a month to the day since it was written, when there have been two 5.2 magnitude earthquakes, this new morning. (Ironically, says the Moon Man?)

Stunning, really. Awesome Earth!

But what is the big picture, if I am asked?

Well, it’s not good. Not for New Zealand, one of the newest land masses and nations on the planet – it is likely to have to start again. In our lifetime? It seems / I would say, perhaps yes. Because a 330-year Alpine Fault cycle is sitting at year 299, approximately.

The tectonic motion we have begun to experience as a constant factor of the post-colonial state has the capacity to practically destroy it. In my opinion. A catastrophe so large is built into this land, Aotearoa – Land of the Long White [volcanic] Cloud – that it will surely cripple us one day. Soon? Hard to say. Why? It looks like this:

Current south-east/central North Island quakes are signs that the Australian Plate it is on is moving, a little bit more. When it finally gets going properly it will be a huge leap south-east, and this will spread the central plateau / Kermadec Arc enough for the Taupo super-volcano to explode again. That will obliterate the central North Island and disable both Auckland and Wellington.

What will initiate this calamity, however, will be almost as bad for the South Island  – a magnitude 8+ slippage of the Alpine Fault, disabling Christchurch and the then-isolated West Coast. This (long-term) ‘regular’ event constitutes the letting-off of the not-quite slow-moving tectonic brake, that is the Southern Alps, that keeps this geological system ‘stable’. A relative term. Long calm will resettle again, after many many large and small aftershocks.

Will Otago-Southland be left standing to pull us through? Let us hope so.

There is no way we can recover from this imminent (in our lifetime?) surety without massive international support and massive sacrifice of sovereignty.

Let us prepare for that transitional step now. However we are best able to.

But it may be that the next magnitude 8+ Alpine Fault earthquake does not release Taupo super-volcano.[2]  Let us hope so. ‘Not yet please.’  We are not ready. …

Is the Taupo volcano on a 5, 6 or 7 Alpine Fault-slip cycle? Some decade on from now, all New Zealand will be discovering this, as-yet hidden fact, together. It will be our darkest hour. Human spirit will pull through.

Kia kaha. Kia ora. Waimarie.

[1] facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10209826325001836&set=a.1294734535479.2045005.1443783772&type=3

[2] “1800 years ago Taupo volcano in New Zealand had the largest volcanic eruption in the world for the last 5000 years.” sott.net/article/249473-Is-The-Super-Volcano-Taupo-in-New-Zealand-Awakening and see wikipedia.org/wiki/Taupo_Volcano “The main pyroclastic flow devastated the surrounding area, climbing over 1500 metres (5000 ft) to overtop the nearby Kaimanawa Ranges and Mount Tongariro, and covering the land within 80 kilometres (50 mi) with ignimbrite from Rotorua to Waiouru. Only Ruapehu was high enough to divert the flow.”

“Possibility of further eruptions on White Island remains high” 10 May 2016 m.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11636672

“Mt Ruapehu still shaking” – top closed to public radionz.co.nz/news/national/303667/mt-ruapehu-still-shaking

“Aggressive 4.7 Christchurch shake centred close to February 22, 2011 earthquake”  stuff.co.nz/national/79890087/earthquake-rattles-christchurch and five hours later a “‘Strong’ earthquake shakes lower North Island” stuff.co.nz/national/79892918/Strong-earthquake-shakes-lower-North-Island 12 May 2016 – graphic, GeoNet.org.nz/quakes/drums:

120516b-NSN-drums-Masterton4.7-5.2

Update 30/5/2016

Scientists prepare for Lake Taupo eruption

“A team of researchers is studying the volcano so better response plans can be put in place in case of a large eruption. The Earthquake Commission said damage from the last time the volcano erupted – almost 1800 years ago – would be large enough to destroy the central North Island…”
radionz.co.nz/news/regional/305214/scientists-prepare-for-lake-taupo-eruption

Understand that the Taupo Volcanic Zone, stretching from Mount Ruapehu to north of White Island, marks the southern pin of the broad Kermadec Arc and basin, a massive slow-spreading rift in the Earth that forever thins its crust. From this steady motion – eastwards, of the Australian Plate – re-eruption of Taupo Volcano is inevitable. It isn’t the centre of the North Island for no reason – it explains why the island is above water. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taupo_Volcanic_Zone

Subduction Zone diagram

Subduction Zone diagram

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lau_Basin + Graphic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Back-arc_basin

The 5th most explosive volcano event known to human scientific records:
Name: Whakamaru
Zone: Taupo Volcanic Zone
Location: New Zealand, North Island
Notes: Whakamaru Ignimbrite/Mount Curl Tephra
Years ago (approx.): 340,000
Ejecta bulk volume (approx.): 2,000 km³
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supervolcano#VEI_8

Later, “Earth’s most recent eruption reaching VEI-8, the highest level on the Volcanic Explosivity Index” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taupo_Volcanic_Zone

“The Ōruanui eruption (about 26,500 years ago) covered much of the central North Island with ignimbrite, up to 200 metres deep. Ash fallout was spread by the wind over the entire North Island, much of the South Island, and a large area east of New Zealand, including the Chatham Islands. About 1,200 cubic kilometres of pumice and ash were rapidly ejected. This caused a large area of land to collapse, forming the caldera basin now filled by Lake Taupō.”

…”Big bang – The Ōruanui eruption was so enormous that it is hard to visualise. In only a few days or weeks it ejected enough material to construct three Ruapehu-sized cones. After the eruption, the new lake gradually filled to a level 140 metres above the present lake. The lake broke out to the north, resulting in a huge flood. For several thousand years the Waikato River flowed northwards into the Hauraki Gulf, but it later changed its course to flow through the Hamilton lowlands to the Tasman sea.”

Then, …”Taupō eruption – The most recent major eruption of Taupō volcano took place in late summer–early autumn around 200 AD, from vents near Horomatangi Reefs (now submerged). The eruption produced a towering ash column, resulting in tephra-fall deposits over a wide area from Hamilton to Gisborne. The airfall deposits were much thicker to the east of Taupō because the eruption column was blown in that direction by strong westerly winds. The eruption column was followed by a devastating pyroclastic flow, blanketing a roughly circular area within 80 kilometres of Lake Taupō with ignimbrite, and destroying all life in its path. The ground-hugging pyroclastic flow appears to be one of the most powerful ever recorded, and was able to overtop Mt Tongariro and the Kaimanawa mountains, climbing 1,500 metres in a matter of minutes. The outlet of Lake Taupō was again blocked during the eruption, and the lake level rose to 34 metres above its present height, forming a widespread terrace. The lake eventually broke out in a huge flood whose effects can be traced for over 200 kilometres downstream, and include boulder beds and buried forests.”
http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/volcanoes/page-5

That is, the same most recent was, the ‘Hatepe eruption’: “considered New Zealand’s largest eruption during the last 20,000 years.. ejected some 120 km3 (29 cu mi).. of which 30 km3 (7.2 cu mi) was ejected in the space of a few minutes. This makes it one of the most violent eruptions [on Earth] in the last 5000 years.. Tsunami deposits of the same age have been found on the central New Zealand coast, evidence that the eruption caused local tsunamis” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hatepe_eruption

“Radiocarbon dating indicates an uneven spacing of Taupo’s eruptions, from decades to thousands of years apart. This makes it difficult to forecast when the next eruption will occur and how big it will be.” http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/volcanoes/page-5

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php#supv

http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake

Update 4/6/2016
“Magma chamber blamed for Bay of Plenty earthquake swarm.. study found the previously unrecognised magma body caused several thousand small earthquakes between 2004 and 2011.. expansion of the molten rock chamber approximately 9km below Matata has pushed up 400 square kilometres of land by 40cm.. something was accumulating at a depth of around 9.5 to 10km beneath the Earth’s surface.. The magma body could have been there for centuries or more.. The area was a ‘rift zone’ where over time the crust had been stretched and thinned – but it was not clear whether the crust was already thin, or the magma made it thin. ‘It is probably a thinner crust than the average you’d find elsewhere.. But what happens is as you stretch the crust and the hot rocks beneath come to a shallower depth, as they become shallower they get less pressure, which actually then enables them to melt and become magma. That magma, because it’s less buoyant than the surrounding rock, it then wants to percolate up through [into the crust]'”, RNZ – radionz.co.nz/news/national/305592/magma-buildup-blamed-for-quakes & Science Advances article, “results suggest that the continued growth of a large magmatic body may represent the birth of a new magma chamber on the margins of a back-arc rift system” – advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/6/e1600288.full
“A huge deposit of magma has been detected just 9km below a small North Island town – and scientists say it may be causing earthquakes. Matata is nestled between Tauranga and Opotiki, and new research using satellite image, GPS data and surveying has revealed the molten secret. The level of the town has been steadily rising over the last few years – up to 10mm per year of uplift, but it is now beginning to slow to about four-five millimetres per year. Scientists are confident there will not be an eruption in the near future, but say they will continue to monitor the magma field”, TV1 – tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/huge-field-molten-magma-found-under-north-island-town
“Rising magma to blame for swarm of quakes”, TV3 – newshub.co.nz/nznews/rising-magma-to-blame-for-swarm-of-quakes-2016060400
“Volcano status and notifications come to the GeoNet app – With the flurry of volcano activity last month, we’re pleased to add some new features to the GeoNet app so you can keep an eye on them, too”, GNS 30May2016 –
info.geonet.org.nz/display/appdata/2016/05/30/Volcano+status+and+notifications+come+to+the+GeoNet+app

Update 17/6/2016

Lake Tarawera water warning, 10 Jan 2015 – “People are being warned not to drink water from Lake Tarawera or swim in it after locals noticed the water was discoloured. It was reported to the Bay of Plenty Regional Council yesterday by Hot Water Beach residents. The council says geothermal activity could be to blame for the water’s white, milky appearance. Samples have been taken to test for the presence of algal blooms. The results are not due back until next week.”
http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/lake-tarawera-water-warning-2015011012

Lake Tarawera tests positive for algae, 15 Jan 2015 – “Lake Tarawera has tested positive for potentially toxic blue-green algae, but a health warning will not be issued. The confirmation comes after samples were taken from the lake last week, as well as Te Rata Bay near Hot Water Beach. The lake is at ‘amber alert’, meaning the situation will continue to be monitored. ‘The blue-green algae identified are potentially toxic but the levels of algae are below health guidelines,’ says Bay of Plenty Regional Council science manager Rob Donald. ‘We recommend that people do not swim in the water if it is discoloured.’ Blue-green algae only recently arrived in New Zealand, but has already taken its place in lakes throughout the North Island. It causes water to appear green and cloudy, and sometimes green specks will be visible.”
http://www.newshub.co.nz/nznews/lake-tarawera-tests-positive-for-algae-2015011517

Mt Tarawera vent erupts after 35-year slumber, 17 Jun 2016 – “One of the geothermal vents in Mt Tarawera’s Raupo Pond Crater came alive for the first time in 35 years last month, according to GeoNet. The Mud Rift feature — a 6m-wide, 36m-long, 15m-deep vent formed in 1906 that has been lying dormant since 1981 — was activated sometime between May 17 and 20 this year. A blog on the GeoNet website suggests the eruption was a fleeting event, and involved fluids flooding into the vent and causing ‘stress and browning off’ of surrounding plants. It says the eruption was mainly steam-driven, and involved plenty of water, creating what has been likened to a ‘muddy geyser’.”
newshub.co.nz/nznews/mt-tarawera-vent-erupts-after-35-year-slumber-2016061716

Update 27/7/2016
It appears this blog post has been read and authorities are now responding:
stuff.co.nz/national/82524357/team-granted-funding-to-plan-response-for-alpine-fault-megaquake

– Noting that a Megaquake could hit central New Zealand, Stuff 19 May 2015, motivating research like Simulation of a Magnitude 8.4 Megathrust Quake in New Zealand, GNS Science youtube, 12 November 2015

Stuff graphic - "Megaquake could hit central New Zealand" - 19 May 2015

Stuff graphic – “Megaquake could hit central New Zealand” – 19 May 2015

As the fog of environmental war descends upon Wellington, a nation’s capital, we are reminded that Earth punishes a degraded humanity; and that Earth’s forces were once known as God.[1]

Where evolution carries intelligence and democratic sharing of the greater tribe forward, contentious, divisive dull ego, that holds these back, is an abhorrence to nature – which has ways of starting over again. This is the lesson of ChristChurch, at the three-year anniversary of its commercial heart’s levelling. What sayeth that lesson?

#1. A cultural centre has shifted radically and its spire, the city’s icon, no longer stands over All.

Why? – The tale of an errant priest doth pertain:

Christchurch Cathedral, 22 February 2011

Christchurch Cathedral, 22 February 2011, set to meet its fate


This photograph, by Aranui’s Angela Thomas, surfaced on facebook on 17 January 2014. It is extraordinary, in that it was taken the night before large earthquake shattered the tranquil scene, on 22 February 2011 – three years ago. Rest In Peace those lost that day. Condolences to their families and friends. And great sympathy to the many and variously injured. Our story goes on. For generations to come.

This picture helps to decipher, to unpack and to understand, massive trauma.

For it clearly shows the shrine to Ba’al, created at the Cathedral’s doorstep, in the days before it fell to natural wrath. The wooded grove is the Biblical signature of such shrines to Ba’al, along with the bovine topiary statue. This signal cultural break – towards worship of Mammon – explains why heaven and earth didst protest, why ‘God’ hath rent this idyllic scene permanently.

The Dean of the church had been hailed in time, but scorned the Call greedily and foolishly. At Knox Church, on Bealey Avenue and Victoria Street corner, Dean Beck heard the following citation, during the local election forum of September 2007, from the Save Our Water campaign:

JEREMIAH 2,13 For my people have committed two evils; they have forsaken me[,] the fountain of living waters, [and] hewed them out cisterns, broken cisterns, that can hold no water.

This ancient quote referred to a good way of life, being lost as artificial storage for irrigation transforms the (Canterbury Plains) land into filth and damaging emissions: these form a travesty that cannot last.

The veracity of Save Our Water core was confirmed when the campaign’s main slogan – Keep Our Water Pure – kicked off a global meme of awareness, such as the cryptic and derivative New Zealand tourism “100% Pure” advertising. Authorities are yet to settle the environmental debt, however. And starting with Dean Beck, false pride needed to be put to one side, to validate the pure message of integrity – that everyone wants.

#2. We, the people, elected to Save Our Water – in Christchurch East (constituency of Environment Canterbury Regional Council) at least. No coincidence that the east, which includes the central city, should feel the brunt of social and economic loss, when democratic voice is denied.

For denied it was, by the 2008-201? National government, who swept the people’s clear wishes aside. In April 2010, National replaced the elected with hand-picked business and morally compromised voices. By September 2010, Earth rebellion had dramatically begun.

So how did our priest respond?

In winter 2010, Beck made pact with the politically compromised, not to Save Our Water but to promote Our Water Our Vote instead. A fair cry but a spoiler campaign, by a Labour-Green merger to monopolise progressive and environmental initiative, for controlling and centralising local election outcomes (upon Wellington, much like National). They too shut out and denied Save Our Water, ignoring the biblical Word.

That year Beck sank deeper in the moral mire of conflicted interest and political partisanship, when he chaired a mayoral candidate election forum, at the Catholic school in New Brighton. Selectively he ensured only incumbent Bob Parker and Labour candidate Jim Anderton were invited and made centre of aural attention. Shutting down alternatives corruptly this way, Beck was narrowing the pool to his own advantage.

By 2012 the purpose was clear, when Beck rode the change-wave into city council office in an east Christchurch by-election. But the talent of this pool was then further proved wanting, as Beck retired, out of energy, come 2013. In the meantime he had extended his sinecure, nonetheless, to replace ChristChurch income lost to his conniving sin, that he had enjoined from National via Labour-Green – all rejecting Jeremiah and to Save Our Water. Shame on them.

It can be no surprise, in knowing this scripture, that Beck’s church was ripped out from under him. For he had been put on very clear notice, to act for Good and not a false god.

Save Our Water launch 2007

Save Our Water launch, winter 2007

Save Our Water launch 2007

Save Our Water launch, winter 2007

Where some have mistaken Save Our Water for an economic injunction, it is actually a spiritual one – to bring us onside with universal All. ~ Rock met rock and our whole world shook, turning us upside down..

Christchurch Cathedral 2012 and Water Protest Cairn 2010

Christchurch Cathedral 2011 and water protest cairn, of winter 2010


Chch Cathedral and Cairn 2012

Christchurch Cathedral 2011 and water protest cairn, of winter 2010

#3. Peter Beck’s sin of hypocrisy and false witness rests in fronting Labour-Green’s city direction, built on Our Water Our Vote collusion to exclude Save Our Water, when it was Labour’s agribusiness developments that sucked Canterbury dry from the 1990s onwards.

Beck’s haughty rejection of Jeremiah’s warning, to pave his own entry into local politics, spelt rapid ruin for the church in his care. His Labour method of abuse of office to achieve higher status (electioneering with a dog-collar) was seen again this week with the forced exit of Shane Taurima from TVNZ. The reason that Labour-Green is ineffective opposition to National is their refusal to realise that they actually have to be different: non-corrupt.[2]

Only new thoughts and ways of doing things, justice and better democracy can put this city back together again, with identity integrity, because the old material way has most obviously failed. Make this city one body again, one church if you like, that Jesus could indeed be proud of. Or Mohammed, let praise be upon him equally, and any other fe/male prophet that may name. And never forget the downtrodden, the women and children amongst these. Amen.

[1] Fog lingers around Wellington Airport, 3 News, 20 Feb 2014

[2] TVNZ manager resigns over fundraising revelations, 3 News, 17 Feb 2014

Postscript: A loud “two evils” 22-2-2011 echo, from the heavens, when twin tornadoes straddled Christchurch the day after the anniversary’s passing, causing property damage, with one vortex crossing ‘Double-Corner Road’ in North Canterbury ~ http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/237042/civil-defence-checks-tornado-hit-houses ~ Forsooth. Forsaged, upon manifest Word. Let there Be cognizance!

And Justice: http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/regional/237120/engineer-to-review-ctv-info-for-police

David Farrar holds forth

David Farrar holds forth

Pro-National, right-wing blogger David Farrar gets ample airtime in autocratic, post-colonial New Zealand. Laundering the deadly results of corporate despoliation is his forté. So when it comes to community-driven civil defence being destroyed nationwide and centralised bureaucratically upon most-fated Wellington, of course Farrar plays apologist. When New Zealanders and visitors die – avoidably – of course Farrar hides from responsibility. That state-run news media has so much time for Farrar’s gilded commentary shows how corrupt the New Zealand state really is, and how much it needs to change; to survive.

Since early 2010, Farrar’s blog has been high in Google’s rankings when searching my name, in relation to the end of democracy at Environment Canterbury regional council (ECan).[1] Although he never lived here or met me, Farrar offers his prejudice as insight on this Christchurch-centred matter, which the internet does not forget and shallow culture can too easily believe. Against wild misconstrual and ignorance, let us set the record straight.

Rural rulers (echo “Royals” a la Lorde) take every resource that they can grab, instinctively, for existential growth of their farm. So their power plays in politics can be no different. This we found at ECan, where the race to the bottom – surfaced now in declining groundwater quality, as the price of international incompetence [2] – saw the same greedy grabs at the council table. Hence my dismay when the abominable – who’d taken all important resource portfolios and left public safety response to me – denied any opportunity to mitigate the risk they had tasked me with meeting. With climate-related hazards rising, ECan farm crooks had put me in the CDEM ambulance at the bottom of the cliff, then started irrigating towards landslides while locking me in the cab – to forestall any slip-stabilising work.[3]

Farrar calls my reaction to this circumstance “hysteria”, but what would his have been? Oh, that’s right. Farrar has never offered any public service himself – just service to the National Party hierarchy of public pillage – a cowardly and equivalently corrupt critic from the sidelines.

Within a year it turned out that I was correct, in warning of dire “deficiencies in civil defence and emergency management (CDEM) preparedness” that cost 185 lives and many more injuries in Christchurch, unnecessarily. National still covers up for shocking silence and worse public management at that time, and Farrar shares the copious blood on National hands accordingly – in the Canterbury earthquakes and the Pike River Mine disaster of the same period. Electing these killers back into government defines the crude and misplaced material values by which New Zealand is easiest known. Shame!

But where is the opposition?

Even more revealingly, the Green Party sides with National on the dis-empowerment of regional democratic representation. After the September 4th, 2010 magnitude 7.1 Darfield quake, their Aoraki / Canterbury Co-Convener acted to silence ECan public CDEM in exile, and the warning of further quakes ahead, via Facebook primarily. This meant that come 22 February 2011’s 6.3 magnitude Christchurch earthquake, civilian blood spread from David Farrar’s National Party hands onto those of David Moorhouse.

As Executive Networker for the Aoraki province, Moorhouse could shape what the party thought about Green members in Canterbury and who should represent it. No coincidence, therefore, that Moorhouse soon emerged as a parliamentary candidate in the city and then Christchurch East. Full manipulation mode at play, just like under National – systemic abuse of authority – the Green Party drifts ever rightwards, anti-democratically. For David Moorhouse is the very embodiment of corruption, that the Greens do not know how to distinguish themselves from National on.[4] And that is because the Green opposition is modelled upon the NZ Labour Party directly, who do not know clear distinguishment from Tory goals or act upon it either.

So when it comes to the strong, publicly-endorsed campaign to Save Our Water – which coheres this whole story, in restraint of industrial dairy conversion of deep New Zealand quality – Labour and the Greens have colluded to extinguish ‘the competing brand’. Evil monopolists too similar to National, vying for their own Parliamentary hegemony, Labour/Green – as “2021” in Christchurch local politics historically – have prioritised their brand promotion at the expense of any other values, with professional external ring-ins often to push conformism.

The result? Losses to the right, that show Labour/Green to in fact have right-wing function: election of National loyalists David East and Paul Lonsdale in eastern city wards that could easily have upheld left-wing roots instead, had Labour/Green not combined as fake-left monopolists to usher them in as preferences to real left politics.

Green rightist David Moorhouse did not succeed in blocking Poto William’s election in the Christchurch East by-election this weekend, claiming 6.95% of the vote – well below the Green Party national average of around 12%.

2014’s direction remains unknown; Titanic.

[1] “Rik Tindall” http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2010/03/rik_tindall.html

[2] “Water nutrient pollution is a slowly-evolving crisis” http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/opinion/editorials/9434061/Water-nutrient-pollution-is-a-slowly-evolving-crisis and “Fonterra: ‘Must do better'” http://www.stuff.co.nz/southland-times/business/9448006/Fonterra-Must-do-better after a botulism scare http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Fonterra_recall, 2013.

[3] CDEM: Civil Defence & Emergency Management portfolio chair at ECan, October 2007 to April 2010.

[4] Moorhouse is a Microsoft Windows-based “software developer” with a conflicted commercial interest in quashing competition from the free and open-source software movement that Green Party policy endorses. He is perfectly prepared to have others pay campaign contributions that he especially will gain public profile from, because illegitimately he has shut others candidates out – abused his administrative position. This corrupt Tory behaviour is a parallel, drawing on some ‘born-to-rule’ attitude of a city founding family, and is offensive. Green leaders Metiria Turei and Russel Norman are aware of Moorhouse’s self-serving, manipulative performance, but it has suited them conveniently to let it run. Principle and Green politics have proven to be very different things, which does not bode well for the future.

As Christchurch and Canterbury remembers the pain and our losses, the trauma of three years’ devastation of our local community, we find fitting means to FIGHT BACK!

040913 - Colombo St sign - The Press

040913 – Colombo Street sign – The Press

This is hard. This is difficult. But we have the love: the memories of our cherished people, homes and city lost. We carry the injuries. We will never forget.

Communities are holding on as best they can, stripped of support, e.g. http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/canterbury-earthquake/218696/brooklands-cleanup-three-years-on

This year we can do something different, and build the most fitting memorial, through a renewed city council, to those just like us who can no longer speak for themselves. Help the grieving find JUSTICE here: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/8853631/CTV-families-seek-legal-action-help

Take the city leaders of September 4th, 2010 – who said ‘she’ll be right, mate’ – to task. They were wrong; very wrong. They reopened Christchurch for business as usual – instead of cordoning dangerous buildings for proper safety inspections with remediation – and 185 paid the price with their lives. Many more were injured; all of us were scarred for life.

Mayor Bob Parker is moving on, but do not let his protege Paul Lonsdale take over. Do not increase the human and administrative disaster here any further! We need civil defence against the crass, uneducated business-minded, who care for profit, yet little for human life and well-being. Make them see sense.

In 2013, VOTE People First!

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/9122147/Rampant-rats-running-amok

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/canterbury-earthquake/218629/thousands-still-waiting-on-quake-claims

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/editors-picks/9124292/Three-years-on-I-stopped-feeling-safe

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/christchurch-earthquake-2011/9115093/September-4-Three-year-report-card

040913 - Colombo St sign - The Press

040913 – Colombo St sign – The Press

 Rik Tindall - Popx Art - New Brighton 2010

Rik Tindall

To resolve the A and B team conflict on Christchurch City Council, the next mayor must be a member of neither.

The city’s council has coped reasonably well with extraordinary pressure of earthquake repairs, over an extended period, through supreme effort from staff. Many residents deny them that comfort, however, just as theirs is denied in damaged suburbs. Rejuvenation is urgently due, and governance is what has most been letting the council down: from inexperience and political factions acting unfairly, breaching rules and losing trust. Trust is the first requirement in the rebuild ahead.

The cohesive city that we had, and can be again, starts at the top with its representation. I join the 2013 local election campaign to help bring that balance, fairness and cohesion needed at the council table.

I have Local Government experience and Resource Management Act hearings training, from my time at Environment Canterbury regional council, 2007-2010. Currently chairman at Cashmere Residents’ Association, I maintain Cashmere.org.nz website.

An IT specialist in free and open-source software, I support small business and home users by trade, on-call. So my life is service to community, in one way or the other.

I offer these skills to Christchurch city administration now.

As vice-chairman at the Christchurch Estuary Association and a former regional councillor for Christchurch East, the community areas of greatest need are always in my mind and will be prioritised through the Team Christchurch mayoralty, should you elect it. Those in home repair difficulty now might start with Canterbury Insurance Advocacy Service or Addington Action to get the ball rolling.

I was Civil Defence and Emergency Management portfolio chair at Environment Canterbury. From that time I have extended my experience, as a volunteer, through the city’s CDEM system and at community level. Response preparedness and recovering resilience is timely for Christchurch, but difficult. This I will also focus on, in the term ahead, if you elect me.*

The progress of the Urban Development Strategy for greater Christchurch must go on, for a quality of home environment second to none. The issues around unitary authority need to be understood and managed well here.

The correct balance between heritage, city identity and inclusive prosperity needs to be struck, moving forward.

The next representation review should inaugurate an elected Māori seat on council, and a preferential voting system for more substantial mandates, in my view. Greater fairness is essential to progress as a united community.

Parallel to council’s decision-making, I will initiate a monthly Mayor’s Counsel forum at which a panel of invited guests will give the best educated advice to questions on city recovery themes. If we still had the James Hay Theatre it would have been perfect for this, a regular community enlightenment event. Transparency and sound reasoning are everything, after compassion.

With your support, we can build a better Christchurch, together.

Kia Kaha,

Kia ora koutou

Rik Tindall

If you would like to assist Team Christchurch campaign, please call me on 03-332-1069 or 027-406-0077. Campaign Manager position available. Like Rik Tindall for Mayor facebook page. Thank you.

[Draft statement – more to follow]

* Time to prepare for Alpine Fault quake Fairfax NZ News 23/07/2013 + The risk of the Alpine Fault Campbell Live 26-Jul-2013.

Media work to date:

Rik Tindall will challenge for Christchurch mayor, Chris Lynch interview, NewsTalkZB, 26-7-2013 & nz.news.yahoo.com

RadioLive interview for news items, 26-7-2013.

Campaign history:

http://www.facebook.com/RikTindall4Chch

SustainableCanterbury.org

Ourwaterourcity.org

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/8786512/Hospital-fears-traffic-impact-of-Hagley-Oval

More information on the election can be found here:

CCC Screenshot 2013-07-27

CCC Screenshot 2013-07-27

Takeover by Govt not favoured despite ills, The Press, 11/07/2013.

Is there a moral in the story of Christchurch City Council under-insurance? – It has the power of turning tentative good news, of steady earthquake recovery, into bad; but for who?

The city leadership has sharp scrutiny upon it, and a public verdict will be delivered in the October elections this year. In not showing they realise that reconstruction MUST prioritise the east of the city, for rebuilding community social weight there, no incumbent is secure. That includes all infrastructure. Chief Executive responsibility?

The new reported lapse is signature of a council failing to care, of being too comfortable by far: Millions wasted in CCC blunder “$11 million insurance mistake by Christchurch City Council.. staff failed to insure the new $21m composting plant in Bromley when it opened in 2009” – The Press, 22/06/2013; and Editorial: Council can’t do the basic things “the composting plant’s lack of cover focuses concerns about the quality of the council’s overall administration”, 25/06/2013.

The crazy thing is, this recycling plant’s speedy recovery to service is a huge good news story – that the council needs to tell. Why hasn’t it?

Next to the Christchurch Estuary in the east, at Bromley, the Living Earth plant was not “destroyed in the earthquakes” as the Press editorial claims. It was significantly damaged, has had to be partially rebuilt in stages, but was up and running – serving the city’s green waste needs – promptly as it HAD TO, given the chaos all around. This was an admirable achievement of the council rebuild staff, and testament to some modern construction in a highly problematic place.

The downside has been for the composting plant’s neighbours, who have faced periodic odour and dust pollution as the rebuild proceeded. These were not new problems there, however.

Eighteen composting tunnels are being reconstructed, in batches of nine at a time, causing reduced capacity and increased risk of bad compost occasionally. The partial rebuild is running slightly ahead of schedule, with full capability of the plant on target for the coming spring. It is rough that the neighbouring businesses and residents have stench to deal with, as waste growth is accommodated through this plant. A range of measures have been implemented to reduce this and the dust effects. The number of complaints is consequently reducing.

From the Christchurch Estuary Association perspective, for which I am vice-chair, we are satisfied that the Living Earth plant is doing the best it can in very difficult circumstances.

The following pictures show the storm-water treatment pond of the plant, working under load at the start of the recent June rains, and very much as it should be. This is important to prevent excess pollutants, especially sediment, from escaping into Charlesworth Drain and from there to the estuary. An inspection tour was facilitated by Living Earth, through the Community Liaison Group that is part of their consent conditions, which enabled this documentary report:

Living Earth storm-water trap, 16 June 2013

Living Earth storm-water trap, 16 June 2013

Living Earth storm-water treatment pond, 16 June 2013

Living Earth storm-water treatment pond, 16 June 2013

It is another amazing council story, really, that Living Earth plant has kept calm and carried on as it has. For keeping waste quantities down in the Kate Valley landfill, and avoiding much higher costs, we sure need it to.

Kia ora

Ref. Living Earth website and Christchurch City Council (CCC) Organics video.

NZ PM John Key dreams of ever-greater riches

NZ PM John Key

On February 22nd, let us remember the 185 lives lost in Christchurch, to the Port Hills fault magnitude 6.3 earthquake of 2011. Spare a thought for the affected parties, those left to deal with close tragedy – unnecessarily.

For the Port Hills quake was entirely predictable, a strong aftershock result of the September 4th magnitude 7.1 of 2010 – less than six months earlier. Causing injuries but not fatalities, the 7.1 was the wake-up call that cruel, selfish and ignorant authorities failed to heed. A threatened city was left undefended, without preparation, to the flippant “she’ll be right” attitude of leaders whose scorn for citizen life cost some, and injuries, on an unprecedented scale here. These misleaders’ SHAME is not enough.

New Zealand Prime Minister John Key, and Christchurch Mayor Bob Parker, did nothing to alleviate the very obvious risk after September 4th. They never considered cordoning a compromised central city or even its damaged buildings, choosing murderous business-as-usual instead. They had let their greed and ambition guide their joint destruction of regional science and civil defence under public democratic control at Environment Canterbury (ECan) earlier in 2010. For that dreadful crime they will be forever damned.

But the $$-eyed media disguise this indisputable truth, continuing the lie they cultivated from 22 February, that these disablers of adequate civil preparation were potent heroes of the emergency response. This they were not, because privatising water had pushed aside every other driver and sound practise at the Canterbury regional council, at regional CDEM,* at their behest. SHAME on Parker and Key! Do not let them away with it, these false posers-for-the-fawning-cameras, these decapitators of able civil defence.

Parker’s fate as Mayor-of-mugging will be decided by Christchurch, in the local elections of October this year. Let justice ring true!

But Parker’s commander, his stocky General, must pay the higher price – for the lives of innocents he has too casually lost. John Key’s reported fortune is fifty million dollars. Divided by the 185 deceased estates, that is $270,270.27 John Key can afford to pay to each – as compensation for sacrifice of their loved one’s safety to mammon, the dairy-farm expansion god that Key had ECan place before all else. And pay the moral price he must.

Knighting of their main accomplice in the corporate seizure and deadly civil disabling of ECan – Ngai Tahu chief Mark Solomon – can only fail as smokescreen of their collective crime, their collective blind greed for more unsustainable pasture irrigation and devastation.

I have documented the closing Civil Defence failure, that saw NZDF army absence leave trapped Canterbury Television (CTV) building survivors to die horribly, here: CTV inquest. 214 dead. EQNZ, Pike River, Christchurch. On 22 February 2013, for the disaster anniversary, Christchurch City Council is claiming lead role – falsely as ever – perpetuating the self-obsessed myth of what they did that day. The truth is the opposite: their managers stayed home in fear and incapacity, in the main, and it was the workers of CityCare who held the city together that day; like they do every day. Do them some justice too.

Answers, and some honourable change, are needed: NZ Army to explain civil defence failure.

Greater Honesty Needed Over The Country’s State Of Preparedness – Council Watch voxy.co.nz 29 September 2010 + “The influence of local political agendas, interagency disconnects, and the ill-ease within many territorial authorities with the regional model introduced by the CDEM Act itself cannot be underestimated. The real challenge will be whether we will be able to address these issues honestly and constructively to ensure that our communities receive the protection they expect and deserve.” Jon Mitchell, Impact vol 39, September 2010.**

Emergency response reviews offer learnings: media release, Christchurch City Council, 5 October 2012.

Prime Minister Key to account for civil defence failure Press Release: Rik Tindall, 22 February 2013, 1:47 pm

Civil Defence – Home & Living – Christchurch City Council, EM newsletter #2: February 2013.

* Civil Defence and Emergency Management (CDEM)

** Impact Newsletter NZ Ministry of Civil Defence & Emergency Management quarterly

Corrective Action Plan following the Review of the Civil Defence and Emergency Management Response to the 22 February 2011 Christchurch Earthquake (PDF, 172KB) etc here.

~ Kia ora

21 months of Christchurch earthquakes - Crowe.co.nz ChartEnergy 230512

21 months of Christchurch earthquakes – Crowe.co.nz ChartEnergy 230512


23 May forecast – This chart shows why we have certainty that Christchurch City’s next magnitude 5+ earthquake is imminent. The consistent U-shaped inter-quake curves trace what stage in the cycle of aftershock regeneration we are in.
Source: canterburyquakelive.co.nz/QuakeEnergy; thanks Chris Crowe for the base information display; interpretation Copyright © Rik Tindall 2012.

The fact that it takes a community volunteer to unearth important geological knowledge like this – with significant bearing upon community well-being – shows the utter negligent bankruptcy of National-ACT growth/austerity cowboy government ~ BRING CHANGE!

25 May update – The forecast 5+ earthquake did indeed arrive:
Magnitude 5.2, Friday, May 25 2012 at 2:44 pm (NZST), 10 km east of Christchurch.

Pegasus Bay magnitude 5.2 quake - GNS GeoNet.org.nz 250512

Pegasus Bay magnitude 5.2 quake – GNS GeoNet.org.nz 250512

Pegasus Bay mag 5.2 quake + 7 days of 3 up - Crowe.co.nz 250512

Pegasus Bay magnitude 5.2 earthquake + 7 days of mag 3 up – Crowe.co.nz 250512


“Magnitude: 5.23, Energy: 1 kilo tonne, Depth: 12.42 km, Address: In the water 10.9 KM from Scarborough” (Sumner – as forecast). Source: canterburyquakelive.co.nz

Pegasus Bay mag 5.2 quake - GNS Canterbury seismograph drums 250512

Pegasus Bay mag 5.2 quake – GNS Canterbury seismograph drums 250512

Source: geonet.org.nz/canterbury-quakes/drums

Pegasus Bay mag 5.2 quake context - GIM 250512

Pegasus Bay mag 5.2 quake context – GIM 250512

Source: quakes.globalincidentmap.com

How the Energy Chart worked out, with new line plotted:

Pegasus Bay magnitude 5.2 quake - Crowe.co.nz ChartEnergy 250512

Pegasus Bay magnitude 5.2 quake (circled) – Crowe.co.nz ChartEnergy 250512

Source: canterburyquakelive.co.nz/QuakeEnergy

12 minutes before this 5.2 quake, 2:32 PM – 25 May 12 via web – @OurWaterOurCity tweet:
#NZ corporate fascist National cowboy government trades public #water assets 4 private & Canterbury #democracy 4 irrigation #Budget2012 #OWS

Magnitude 5.2 quake rocks Christchurch Fairfax NZ News 15:20 25/05/2012

ground truth has spoken

Realise all human potential and END WASTE.
Respect Earth environment and resurrect ONE LOVE.

Store note: Papers Past – Press – 21 August 1906 – Page 7 – A LOCAL PHENOMENON 15 Aug 1868 Valparaiso quake and tsunami waves recalled.