“US crude oil futures collapsed below $0 on Monday for the first time in history, amid a coronavirus-induced supply glut, ending the day at a stunning minus $US37.63 a barrel as desperate traders paid to get rid of oil. Brent crude, the international benchmark, also slumped, but that contract was nowhere near as weak because more storage is available worldwide” – Reuters via ODT, 21 April 2020 – But “a record 160 million barrels is sitting in tankers around the world”, as storage is quickly running out. Little will be available beyond May, Al Jazeera reported just before this news. – see Reuters.[1] This expresses the classic crisis of over-production,[2] in which the impacts can only compound and intensify. We have 1918 and 1929 rolled into one.
Oil production “cuts will come too slowly to offset rising inventories, which hit 518.6 million barrels in the US last week, just 3 percent off an all-time record, the Energy Department said. ‘If storage continues to increase at the end of the day, which seems likely considering all these Saudi barrels knocking at the door, then we are going to get to maximum storage sometime in the not so distant future,’ said Bob Yawger, director of futures at Mizuho in New York.”
US oil storage January 2017 to April 2020 – Bloomberg
Two days after dip, medium-term WTI and Brent oil TradingEconomics.com ‘recovery’ graphs:
WTI year to 23 Apr 2020
Brent year to 23 Apr 2020
What will happen next?
It is easy to forecast another crude oil price collapse as April closes, to below $10 a barrel, trading through May to hold the $16 latest low line if possible when all the stream spare storage capacity fills up. Output cannot be curtailed by enough producers in time to stop this lengthy return to medium to long term base value lows.
The logic of the market is to settle in at single digit barrels for the duration, while the costliest North American production is demolished. Such is the damage to demand and employment now locked in by pandemic shut-down response and unleashed technological upgrades. This is the beginning of the third Great Depression. Problematic war in the Middle East is the only potential diversion of this course, and the slump’s most likely remedy – under traditional mechanisms.
We have entered a vastly different world, with a deadly pandemic unparalleled since 1918. So will we, the people, shape the new world coming? ‘Recovery must be inclusive for the social contract to survive’, the Inside Story panel concluded, in “Why did US oil prices hit negative territory?”, Al Jazeera, 22 April 2020. Also regard Earth Day: Coronavirus crisis offers big green opportunity and ask Is civil disobedience enough or do we need a climate revolution?, 23 April 2020. The young generation know their future is imperilled and precisely by what: aged infrastructure/maintainers.
Nothing is guaranteed, except that the level of comfort so many knew before Covid is now gone – Goldman: Don’t Expect U.S. Oil Prices To Recover Soon, OilPrice.com, 21 April 2020. So much of financial sector credit is based upon appreciating energy industry shares, almost ‘too big to fail’ but not quite. It is the critical modern resource, the lifeblood of industrial economy, the core carrier of growth: too little or too much energy cost, both inhibit prosperity. The long answer is we have to move on from utter dependency on fossil fuel burning.
Competing large national oil interests – North American, Russian, Middle East – are all pitched against each other, on a currently shrinking transport market with no recovery in near sight. Smaller producer countries – in Africa, Asia and South America – face at this time the same and thus proportionately larger challenges of internal cohesion – resulting from this loss of revenue, profit, reinvestment and jobs.
The March surge of Saudi oil has been shunned by the US administration so will divert to Europe and Asia, flooding the markets there, viz Rising calls to block Saudi crude shipments to US, Al Jazeera, 23 April 2020. China is stockpiling the cheapened flow as fast as it can, as the world’s biggest oil consumer.[3] Contrast to North America’s accelerating market chaos.[4]
“A slow recovery that keeps oil prices down below $20 would mean heightened risk of political instability throughout the oil-producing world. It would strain cooperation in OPEC because the members would not see the benefit of their cutbacks” – Crude carnage: ‘There’s pain everywhere’ says analyst, Al Jazeera, 22 April 2020.
It is essential to recreate trade as sustainable, now and for the future, with whole new food, energy and distribution dynamics and underpinnings. The health framework can then improve for everyone too.
The estimated 12 to 18 month recovery time expected while awaiting a globally available Covid19 vaccine is reinforced by this being the expected time to clear the mounting glut, to effect enough oil/shale well shut-in to start lifting values. A very slow and expensive process, especially in jobs.
This will be a protracted, increasingly painful slump; most like 1929’s. The stark choice of ways out of, it is high time to discuss.[5]
[1] “Stocks are likely to be growing by 10% per month… the entire supply chain is likely to be completely full within 2-4 months. … At the end of January [industry storage] was a mere 200 million barrels below the record high of 3.1 billion barrels – reported in July 2016, shortly after the end of the previous oil price slump. … As the petroleum market moves into massive surplus, storage has become the most scarce commodity in the industry.” – Global oil storage to fill rapidly as consumption plunges, Reuters, 28 March, & “The US Energy Information Administration last week reported a record 19.3 million-barrel crude stock build. There is currently a remaining 21 million barrels of storage available at the Cushing hub in Cushing, Oklahoma. But that will fill up to the brim by mid-to-late May, Rystad Energy predicts”, U.S. crude oil storage is filling rapidly, 18 April 2020.
“Goldman Sachs … estimates that the world has around 1 billion barrels of spare storage capacity, but much of that will never be accessed ‘as the velocity of the current shock will breach transportation networks’ … ‘With demand collapsing but supply rising after OPEC and non-affiliated Russia failed to reach a production cut agreement in early March, global inventories could reach their maximum capacity within weeks,’ analysts at Eurasia Group said … ‘Industry participants are saying it is virtually impossible to find conventional onshore tanks. Even if OPEC and other producers start restricting their output again soon, the supply overhang from the global lockdown is so big that storage capacity will likely hit its limit by midyear. Already, ports and refiners are turning away oil tankers. This will put even more downward pressure on prices and pose an existential threat to many companies,’ Eurasia Group said. Analysts at Energy Aspects expect the ongoing oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia will keep production elevated until the end of the year. This means the world will run out of crude storage capacity early in the third quarter of the year, they added, with product containment arriving earlier” Oil prices could soon turn negative as the world runs out of places to store crude, analysts warn, CNBC, 1 April 2020.
“Oil prices were already weighed down by oversupply going into 2020 … ‘Market prices are showing that oil is all but worthless now. It’s going to take a long time to draw down the huge supply overhang'” – Crash! US crude futures turn negative for first time in history, Al Jazeera, 21 April 2020.
“OPEC+ coalition… agreed to slash production by about 10 million barrels a day earlier this month, but the cuts won’t kick in until May. Even then, they won’t be enough to balance out the demand destruction from the virus in the short term, which could be as high as 30 million barrels a day… Inventories at the biggest U.S. storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, are at the highest since 2017 and are expected to rise further. The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute reported that nationwide crude stockpiles rose 13.2 million barrels last week… Meanwhile, Indian fuel tanks are now 95% full, according to officials at three state-owned refiners” – Brent nears a 21-year low under demand and storage pressure, WorldOil, 22 April 2020.
[3] “Rather than cutting back on imports, China pushed crude oil into storage tanks at almost double the rate in the first quarter of this year than it did in the same period in 2019 as the new coronavirus hit domestic consumption … Other major crude importing countries lack the ability to simply divert oil into storage on the scale that China can, meaning they will have to lower the amount of crude being imported. Even countries with large commercial and strategic storages, such as the United States, will find that the volume of crude available is so much that it will overwhelm available tank space within weeks, rather that months … by itself it’s nowhere near enough to compensate for the loss of an estimated 30 million bpd of global consumption” – China doubled crude oil storage inflows during coronavirus demand hit, Reuters, 20 April 2020.
[4] “an acute state of oversupply in North America … ‘This inflection will play out in a matter of weeks, not months, with the market likely forced to balance before June,’ Goldman analysts warned. In other words, the U.S. oil industry could lose several million barrels per day in the next few weeks in what Goldman analysts called a ‘violent rebalancing.'” The Worst Is Yet To Come For Oil Prices, OilPrice.com, 21 April + Oil Prices Hit $15 For The First Time In 21 Years 19 April + “Canada, Venezuela, Iraq, Brazil, Libya, Ecuador and even the U.S. are seeing forced shut-ins due to storage constraints, COVID-19 and low prices” A Massive Wave Of Shut-Ins Fails To Halt Oil Price Crash 21 April + $1 Oil: Saudi Arabia’s Attempt To Crush U.S. Shale 1 April + “fewest number of active rigs since January 2017.. EIA’s estimate is that the United States still produced 13 million barrels of oil per day on average this week, just 100,000 bpd off the all-time high” The Largest Rig Count Collapse In 5 Years 3 April + “only if the United States joins the cuts” Russia To Cut 1 Million Barrels Per Day, But Under One Condition + The World’s Biggest Oil Deal Can’t Save Crude Prices 6 April + Oil Prices Hit $1 Following A 90% Crash, 20 April + How Oil Prices Could Go To $100 + In Rare Development, Oil Majors Are Forced To Cut Output Under OPEC Deal viz British Petroleum-led project in Azerbaijan, 23 April + “According to Goldman Sachs, global oil storage could be completely full within the next three weeks, and another dramatic crash could follow” Oil Prices Crash 24% As Storage Fears Mount + “unprecedented situation in global energy markets has provided traditional producers with an opportunity to displace incumbents in primarily the U.S. The price war Saudi Arabia started after Russia refused to reduce output in early March has decimated budgets of energy-dependent countries and oil companies. Riyadh and Moscow are playing with fire.. Riyadh is also upping the ante in Asia where Aramco has cut prices by $3 to $5 per barrel, which is the second drastic cut in two months.. energy industry seems to be heading full speed towards a cliff, exporters in Russia and Saudi Arabia prefer to maintain their market share instead of saving the industry. Only time will tell where this strategy will lead to” Saudi Arabia And Russia Fight Bitter Market Share Battle As Oil Prices Collapse, 27 April + “UBS, a Swiss financial firm, sees oil prices rising by as much as 115 percent by the end of the year. ‘While the oil market is heavily oversupplied this quarter, we expect it to move toward balance next quarter and become under-supplied in 4Q this year as lockdown restrictions are eased and oil demand picks up,’ Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, explained. OPEC, which is preparing to roll out its joint plan to cut global oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day, is even more hopeful, predicting a recovery by the second half of the year. Mohamed Arkab, Energy Minister of OPEC’s rotating president Algeria, noted, ‘the global economy is not going to stay paralyzed,’ adding that he predicts the price of the Brent benchmark could reach $40 by the beginning of the third quarter” Are Oil Prices Heading Back Into Negative Territory? + “’this is a never-before-seen level of national economic calamity; history doesn’t get bigger than this’.. Most people, policy makers and economists are energy blind and cannot, therefore, fully grasp the gravity or the consequences of what is happening.. Oil production and prices are unlikely to regain late 2018 levels. Renewable sources will fall behind along with efforts to mitigate climate change. It’s Really Bad.. Gross domestic product (GDP) is proportional to oil consumption.. because oil is the economy. Every aspect of production and use of goods and services requires burning fossil energy. There are approximately 4.5 years of human labor in a barrel of oil. No other energy source comes close to that level of energy density.. Large segments of the U.S. oil industry will have to be nationalized before the year is over.. productivity multiplier will be essential if the U.S. economy is to avoid collapse or for it to recover if collapse is unavoidable.. foolish practice of draining America first since the beginning of tight oil production a decade ago.. The game is over for oil. We should place all of our attention on saving the economy.. a chance to simplify and to learn to be satisfied with no more than what we need. It is unlikely that we will have much choice” The Death Of U.S. Oil, 28 April + The World’s Largest Oil Fund Is Sitting On $725 Million In Unrealized Losses re United States Oil Fund, 29 April + Venezuela Oil Exports Climb As OPEC Agreement Kicks In, 4 May 2020.
[5] By the late 1920s in the United States, “the huge oversupply of crude totally disrupted the market and rational planning, thus creating sudden price collapses.” The October 1930 opening of the East Texas Black Giant, a well reservoir so vast it dwarfed everything previously known in America, caused the $1.85 per barrel price of 1926 – that had dropped to $1 by 1930 – to fall to 15, 6 or even 2 cents at times, by May 1931. – The Prize, Daniel Yergin, 1991, pp.223, 247.
[DRAFT #5 – more to be added.]
“Oil companies are some of the most important payers of dividends across financial market worldwide, providing vital income streams to pension funds and millions of smaller investors. ..fears about the ability of oil companies to maintain dividend payments beyond 2020 are unlikely to subside until a vaccine for Covid-19 is discovered” Oil prices on a slippery slope, Financial Times, 24 April 2020.
“There are about 3.2 billion barrels of crude oil already in global inventories, according to Orbital Insight, a record high. The majority of land-based oil storage is in the form of Floating Roof Tanks (FRT). Overall, Orbital Insight says the world’s FRT storage is at 55.6% capacity, so the firm sees about 2 billion more barrels of storage capacity available. Beyond FRT storage are alternatives, such as fixed roof tanks, salt caverns, or even more expensive floating storage like tankers at sea. Ursa said recent estimates put sea-based tanker storage at about 160 million barrels. Essentially, the lower price of oil drops, the more oil producers look to expensive types of storage capacity as viable. Storage capacity options have an inverse relationship to production methods, as more expensive methods of extracting oil become viable as the price rises. ‘There’s still places to put oil. It’s been diminished because volumes have increased because of the amount that’s been leased out. But they’re going to keep searching out for more and more tanks to fill,’ [Ursa Space Systems analyst Geoffrey] Craig said. ‘If this continues, there’s going to be another phase where you would have to have another shift down in price,’ Craig added. June contracts for WTI crude traded at $16.54 a barrel on Friday, down more than 9% this week. Brent crude traded at $21.22 a barrel, down more than 20% this week. Hall noted that the recent panicked sell-off was largely focused on storage capacity running out in Cushing, Oklahoma. He pointed out that storage facilities in West Texas are below 50% capacity, with Europe and the Middle East each at 60% capacity as well. ‘Throughout the rest of the U.S., in Canada and then across the rest of the world, there’s still a lot of capacity out there for storage,’ [Kayrros market strategist Ted] Hall said. ‘Tanks are relatively full and have been filling, but there’s still a lot of a lot of room to grow globally.’ So long as major production cuts don’t happen while capacity remains, the price of oil will remain tied significantly to how much storage is left. ‘Based on what’s gone on the past week, there’s certainly a chance that we’ll see more breakdowns based on really unique financial moments related to the financial contracts in crude,’ Hall added.” Oil prices could remain under pressure, according to satellite imagery analysis, CNBC, 24 April 2020.
“With a sizable contraction anticipated, the current consensus expectation is for a negative 4% reading. Economists at ING are more pessimistic, looking at the destruction in retail as they forecast a 6% dive in productivity. Retail activity outside of groceries has practically collapsed and manufacturing surveys have reported plummeting activity. Given this situation, we look for the economy to have contracted 6% annualised in Q1 with much worse to come in 2Q.” The Dow Is Eerily Calm – But Next Week Could Be Menacingly Volatile, CCN, 24 April 2020. “product that the state-run Bank of China dubbed Yuan You Bao, or Crude Oil Treasure.. branches posted ads on Wechat.. ‘Crude oil is cheaper than water’.. The physical settlement for the benchmark WTI takes place at Cushing, Oklahoma. When storage tanks there fill up, the price on the expiring contract can plunge and become disconnected from the global market. With demand evaporating, inventories at Cushing were soaring. In March and April, they climbed 60% to just under 60 million barrels, out of a total working capacity of 76 million – and analysts reckon much of the remaining space is already earmarked.. ‘The trading at settlement mechanism failed. It shows the fragility of the WTI market, which is not as big as people think’.. Prices in the U.S. physical market, set by reference to the WTI settlement, also plunged, with some refiners and pipeline companies posting prices to their suppliers as low as minus $54 a barrel.. The bank had a total position of about 1.4 million barrels of oil, or 1,400 contracts, according to a person familiar with the matter. It wound up having to pay about 400 million yuan ($56 million) to settle the contracts.. a new wave of selling that swept across oil markets. On Tuesday, the June WTI contract plunged by 68% to a low of just $6.50. And this time it was not limited to U.S. contracts: Brent futures also plunged, hitting a 20-year low of $15.98 on Wednesday, driving the price of Russian, Middle Eastern and West African oil that is priced relative to it to levels near zero.. ‘suspicion of market manipulation or a flawed new computer model’.. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.. exploring.. whether the storage capacity data posted by the U.S. Energy Information Administration accurately reflected the actual availability of space.. CME [Group Inc, which owns the oil-futures exchange] argues.. market working efficiently.. ‘We witnessed history’.. brokerage PVM. ‘For the sake of oil-market stability,” this “should not be allowed to happen again'” The 20 Minutes That Broke the U.S. Oil Market, Bloomberg, 25 April + Icahn Bought Cheap Oil in Monday’s Plummet to Historic Lows, 24 April Ref. Icahn Enterprises Wikipedia + What’s Next for Global Oil Prices?: The Industry May Shut Down , Bloomberg, 26 April 2020.
“The implosion of crude oil markets in the past week holds a mirror to the broader distress in the U.S. and global economy. Social distancing measures imposed on consumers and business shutdowns enforced to combat the spread of the coronavirus pandemic have led to a collapse in international trade and travel. Gasoline and jet fuel prices have sunk as a result leading to crude oil inventories rapidly filling the available storage space. The lockdowns have also led to a slump in business revenues and consumer spending, causing mass unemployment in the U.S. not seen since the 1930s, at least temporarily. The issue for business earnings, economic growth and stock market values is that the U.S. is more dependent on consumer spending than some other economies.. ‘It shows us that the reality of demand destruction in the economy is more dire than what other risk asset prices, particularly U.S. equity prices, reflect’.. The stock market may have shrugged off the oil slump though in part because the direct hit from low oil prices is limited for Wall Street. The overall share of the energy sector in U.S. equity and even in corporate bond markets is minimal, and many fund managers have steered clear of the industry due to the challenging economics of crude production and the growing adoption of more carbon-friendly investment approaches in the U.S. and abroad. Energy represents less than 3% of the overall S&P 500 index, and around 12% of the index for sub investment-grade corporate bonds.. ” Could the crude oil market bust spell trouble for high-flying U.S. stocks?, MarketWatch, 25 April.
“The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures expiring in May plunged 321%, to -$40.32 a barrel, the lowest level ever recorded” Oil plunges 321% into negative territory for the first time ever as demand evaporates, Markets Insider, 20 April 2020 – WTI:
Date, Closing Price, Open, Daily High, Daily Low
05/04/2020 20.39 19.11 21.42 18.05
05/01/2020 19.78 19.04 20.48 18.07
04/30/2020 18.84 15.64 19.44 15.45
04/29/2020 15.06 13.35 16.78 12.67
04/28/2020 12.34 12.96 13.69 10.07
04/27/2020 12.78 16.84 16.98 11.88
04/24/2020 16.94 16.78 17.97 15.64
04/23/2020 16.50 14.20 18.26 13.35
04/22/2020 13.78 16.18 10.26
04/21/2020 10.01 -14.00 13.86 -16.74
04/20/2020 -37.63 17.73 17.85 -40.32
04/17/2020 18.27 20.00 20.22 17.31 ‘There is no reason to be bailing out Middle Eastern overproduction’: Analysts break down how to prevent further oil price volatility, Markets Insider, 25 April 2020 – Brent:
Date, Closing Price, Open, Daily High, Daily Low
05/05/2020 30.97 28.10 32.06 27.77
05/04/2020 27.20 26.10 28.08 25.50
05/01/2020 26.44 26.95 27.88 25.76
04/30/2020 25.27 22.87 25.76 22.87
04/29/2020 22.54 20.66 23.88 20.53
04/29/2020 22.54 20.66 23.88 20.53
04/28/2020 20.46 19.90 21.29 18.73
04/27/2020 19.99 21.55 21.91 19.11
04/24/2020 21.44 21.93 22.70 20.50
04/23/2020 21.33 20.89 23.22 20.07
04/22/2020 20.37 20.23 22.45 15.98
04/21/2020 19.33 26.33 26.50 17.51
04/20/2020 25.57 28.05 28.25 25.37
“Brent crude oil is at its lowest level in 17 years.. The US exports roughly 4 million barrels of oil per day, but much of that outflow will fade as Saudi Arabia and Russia undercut US pricing. Mizuho [Securities]’s analysis pegs the US’s spare capacity at 273 million barrels and estimates the tanks could top out in as soon as four months.. negative prices could become a reality if the US can’t build new storage at the pace of its inventory buildup.. The oil-price war kicked off March 6, when Russia declined to lower production. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries had hoped to curb supply as the coronavirus outbreak pummeled oil demand around the world. Russia’s move prompted retaliation from Saudi Arabia in the form of massive price cuts, igniting a race to claw more market share” The oil market’s threats combine 9/11 with the financial crisis – and could turn prices negative, analyst says, Markets Insider, 18 March 2020.
“U.S. market history points to a final bottom in August” Stocks will revisit their coronavirus crash low, and here’s when to expect it, MarketWatch, 11 April 2020.
“We have clearly gone to full scale day-to-day market management crisis, and as we said when we first called for negative prices, the physical reality of oil is that it is difficult to handle, volatile, potentially polluting, and actually useless without a refinery. If you had a stinking barrel of oil in your backyard, would you pay someone $100/bbl to take it away? Yes, and you would probably be relieved you were not charged $300/bbl,” Oil could hit negative $100 per barrel next month, according to one analyst, Markets Insider, 22 April 2020.
“The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported last Wednesday that U.S. crude inventories rose 15 million barrels for the week ended April 17 to 518.6 million barrels. That marked a 13th straight weekly climb and followed a record weekly increase of 19.2 million barrels a week earlier.. January 2021 CLG21 contract trading near $29.37 on Monday or still well below the $54 per barrel levels of mid-February that already were viewed as a threat to the viability of some weaker players” Here’s why oil majors may struggle to find bargains in the shale patch, MarketWatch, 27 April 2020.
“The United States Oil Fund (USO) that was responsible for last Monday’s oil crash into negative territory is once again shaking up oil markets, and WTI is now down more than 21% on the day. The USO Fund’s administration, USCF, announced on Monday that it intends to sell off all of its WTI contracts for June delivery—that’s all its front-month contracts that the fund was designed to invest in. Instead, the fund will now focus on futures contracts that are further out. The USO’s breakdown will now be comprised of 30% in the July contract, 15% each in the August, September, October, and December contracts, and 10% in the June 2021 contract. The June 2020 contract fell $3.85 on Monday to $13.09 by 3:52 p.m. EDT. Meanwhile, the July contract is trading $5 higher, and the August contract $8 higher at $21.47. The last time the USO fund shook up the oil market was one week ago today, the last day before the May 2020 futures contract for WTI expired. What set the disastrous events in motion was traders wishing to exit their positions before the contract expired. The USO, which would be unable to accept delivery of physical barrels of oil, headed for the exit, but found few willing buyers. This time around, the USO fund is pulling out of all its near-term contracts over the course of the next few days, sending oil prices reeling once again. The shift away from front-month contracts will amount to dumping 20% of its $3.6 billion portfolio over the next few days, Financial Times reports, citing a regulatory filing by USO.” World’s Largest Oil Fund Is Once Again Crashing Crude Markets, OilPrice.com, 27 April 2020.
With deep condolences to the affected families and friends of those lost or injured, with respect, a tracing of safety fault. Haere, haere, haere, ngaa hoa mate o Aotearoa.
Whakaari/White Island – patient status – Ministry of Health – Manatū Hauora
Urgency of daily EQNZ risk – Whakaari / White Island, 9 December 2019 – a cautionary analysis:
If the significant eruptive event of 9 November 2019 (that kicked the 6-month developing volcanic process up another gear, leading to a deadly harmful “moderate” event of 9Dec2019) was noticed in itself, as a warning for everyone to keep clear for a month, what record is apparent of that? ..
Nine whole days later comes the formal, hyper-cautious response (conservative of what, foremost – business as usual, scientific reputation, political relationships and quiescent public mood …? ):
Whakaari/White Island: Background activity increases further
Volcanic Alert BulletinWI – 2019/09
Mon Nov 18 2019 12:00 PM; White Island Volcano Volcanic Alert Level is raised to 2
Aviation Colour Code is raised to Yellow
“Volcanic unrest continues at Whakaari/White Island and some monitored parameters show further increases in activity. Hazards on the island are now greater than during the past few weeks, and the Volcanic Alert Level is raised to Level 2… In the past few weeks, the level of volcanic tremor has also increased from weak to moderate strength… The number or locations of earthquakes beneath or near the island have not changed… the monitored parameters are just above the expected range for minor volcanic unrest and associated hazards. The patterns of signals are similar to those through the 2011—2016 period and suggest that Whakaari/White Island may be entering a period where eruptive activity is more likely than normal… Volcanic Alert Level 2 is mostly associated with unrest hazards on the volcano and could include eruptions of steam, gas, mud and rocks. These eruptions can occur with little or no warning.”
Whakaari/White Island: Moderate volcanic unrest continues
Volcanic Alert BulletinWI – 2019/10
Mon Nov 25 2019 2:00 PM; White Island Volcano
Volcanic Alert Level remains at 2
Aviation Colour Code remains at Yellow
“There has been no change in activity at the volcano after the deep magnitude 5.9 earthquake, that occurred beneath eastern Bay of Plenty on Sunday 24 November… volcanic tremor remains at moderate levels. There have been few earthquakes near the island… fountaining is regularly throwing mud a few metres into the air at the vent but at current levels does not pose a hazard to visitors… in the expected range for moderate volcanic unrest and associated hazards. The monitoring observations are similar to those seen in the more active 2011—2016 period and suggest that Whakaari/White Island may be entering a period where eruptive activity is more likely than normal… Level 2 is mostly associated with unrest hazards on the volcano and could include eruptions of steam, gas, mud and rocks. These eruptions can occur with little or no warning.”
Whakaari/White Island: Moderate volcanic unrest continues
Volcanic Alert BulletinWI – 2019/11
Tue Dec 3 2019 1:00 PM; White Island Volcano
Volcanic Alert Level remains at 2
Aviation Colour Code remains at Yellow
“Explosive gas and steam-driven mud jetting continues from the active vent area… style of activity has been present since late September, although it is occurring more frequently now. No volcanic ash is being produced. Volcanic gas emission and seismic activity continue to remain elevated… Volcanic tremor also remains at moderate levels in the last week… level of activity is variable and remains within the range expected for moderate volcanic unrest. While the activity is contained to the far side of the lake, the current level of activity does not pose a direct hazard to visitors… some similarities with those seen during the 2011-2016 period when Whakaari/White Island was more active and stronger volcanic activity occurred… may be entering a period where eruptive activity is more likely than normal… Volcanic Alert Level 2 is mostly associated with unrest hazards on the volcano and could include eruptions of steam, gas, mud and rocks. These eruptions can occur with little or no warning.”
The two highlighted phrases in the above paragraph stand in direct contradiction to each other. Interpretation of immediate risk was thus loosely allowed to fail.
Language gaps and repetition are features of these three most recent reports. Leading up to them, in summary, there were two earthquake swarms earlier in the year (kept in silo). Then three other indicators were also too casually discounted: the rising crater lake, temperature and gas levels – “the highest [gas] value recorded since 2013 and the 2nd highest since regular measurements began in 2003”. Read all Volcanic Alert Bulletins here: geonet.org.nz/volcano/vab/all.
It seems to me, the greatest problem exists where the category “moderate” volcanic activity is one relating to (commercial) aviation risk, where at (human) ground level it can be a deadly risk and truly immoderate.
The next greatest problem, I would say, was de-prioritising this hazard, under the present conditions, from a Monday inspection cycle to a Tuesday, without which the Monday tragedy may have been avoided. – Who made that GNS decision, when and why? At least please clarify the inspection and reporting schedule around this hazard.
Thirdly, ‘the international best practise’.., if that is what determines this, of treating each and every seismic event as a unique and unrelated item (‘in a silo’), may have limited perception of this emerging volcanic crisis. Can this quake isolation approach be explained or reviewed at all?
GNS-defined no-go hazard zone, ‘as it would have applied on 9Dec2019’, in hindsight Thursday:
GNS Whakaari / White Island hazard exclusion zone 2019-12-12
Generally, we need to support science and scientists better and much more – for at times they provide our only lifeline. Help them to improve their work for us all.
The main question I have for GNS, is, why no particular study or escalation of alert around the 28Oct2019 Whakaari earthquake swarm? which could have averted tragedy, echoed on 6Dec19:
Earthquakes near White Island over the past 2 months
“The eruption is not caused by magma, but by steam, and this is much harder to track in our current monitoring systems.”[1]
“GNS also makes three monthly visits to test water, gas and soil, as well as to make surveys of surface deformation.”[2]
“It’s tapu because of the fact that we have our distinguished dead there.”[3]
“Tāupo volcanic zone.. runs from Ruapehu to White Island.. measured as some of the most productive volcanism on earth”. [4]
Godspeed and safe travels to the NZDF and NZPolice recovery operation 13.12.19
“In 2012, a lava dome was spotted and the alert level raised from one to two.. lava dome growth can be accompanied by explosive eruptions and could impact people on the island” [5]
“Overnight web camera images recorded a glow from the vent area, confirming high heat flow” [6]
Yet lower earthquake frequency leads to a lowering to “35-50% chance (medium likelihood) of an eruption occurring that could impact outside of the marked vent area within the next 24 hours” [7]
Comparing this graphic to earliest released in the sequence, showing tail of 9Nov2019 event only:
10Nov-10Dec19 quake intensity Whakaari
If GNS estimates are correct, and this was just a typical ‘Whakaari cough’, then there will be no significant eruption soon following the current anomalous (markedly quiet) seismic situation:
The reason being, the risen magma has burnt off (evaporated) its water table cap and punched through the rock overlay already, allowing free lava expansion movement and degassing thanks to the phreatic explosion of 9Dec. See also Deep Earth Carbon Degassing Project re “order of magnitude uncertainty in current volcanic/tectonic carbon outgassing makes answering fundamental questions about the global carbon budget virtually impossible”.
Systemic failure in New Zealand emergency response is confirmed by repeat avoidable tragedies in Christchurch, unmitigated disasters under National-led government. Full responsibility lies with them and with everyone who has been selfishly and ignorantly voting support for corrupt sheer incompetence in central and local government: a regional despoliation shared between greedy empire-builders of Beehive and town hall.
With an eye – they happily admitted at the time – only for increased irrigation water for dairy profits from Canterbury, John Key, Gerry Brownlee and Bill English – backed by Christchurch and Canterbury mayors – have completely dropped the ball in every aspect of good governance in the region, since they destroyed its democratically elected council in April 2010.
Since then, because of this, many people have been unnecessarily dying due to the fragmentation of effective civil defence that the central and district governments have collectively caused. That is abysmal and completely unacceptable performance. Heads must roll. Starting today. For public safety.
The lazy, corrupt, ignorant incompetence that characterises New Zealand government has to stop: it is deadly at fault. The same confused fire-cordon-and-response failings that cost lives in the levelled Canterbury Television building on 22-23 February 2011 re-appeared on 14 February 2017 in the Port Hills fires.[1] The failing is in leadership and co-ordination, not that of hands-on responders: a communication and collaboration failure in the back office, from the top down. It is a man-made sabotage of effective regional response that John Key et. al. never imagined was going to be needed or could bite them so very, very hard. Now it very much has. The pattern of functional decay is thoroughly exposed.
News media could stop deflecting attention away from National’s gross mis-leadership and culpable manslaughters in Canterbury. Or remain accessories. Stop promoting self-advancing, opportunist and incompetent mayors.
Ask how the CTV building fire cordon was managed in February 2011. Was it effective in Police hands, as prescribed by an emergency site that had fatality? Or were fire crews excessively stretched without backup, then investigated as blameworthy? Were the fire responders made scapegoats, then and in February 2017?
Ask especially what action council took to check building safety and to cordon off hazards after 4 September 2010. None was apparent as a loud sigh of relief led into an ill-fated Boxing Day Sale, to satisfy city retailers, instead. Criminal negligence and liability rests here and instead we see knighthood reported? Not good enough by far.
Without remedial action at the governance level, New Zealand’s coming grand disaster – the Alpine Fault movement and its follow-ons – will only be all the more lethally tragic. Proposals to centralise emergency response are to save who time instead of getting on an aeroplane? And what happens then when Wellington gets badly hit? No confidence, at all, as it is unearned yet.
Tweet summary: #Canterbury regional bungle #ECan #CDEM
National Party implicated in #CTV + #Sugarloaf avoidable deaths With districts
Action summary: What public safety requires most, without delay, is –
all communities developing skills and means to organise, represent and keep themselves safe,
National out of central government,
Labour out of local government
– monopolies are never, ever healthy or helpful.
Monday 13 February 2017
c4:30pm Fire broke out in Lansdowne Valley, Selwyn District, spreading rapidly.
c7pm Fire broke out on Marley’s Hill to the north, in the Christchurch City Council area.
Marley’s Hill fire as seen from the south, above the spreading Lansdowne fire, c9pm 13 Feb 2017, in warm west wind
Two fires on Christchurch’s Port Hills stretch fire crews, destroys house, force evacuations
“Fire Service spokeswoman Lyn Crosson.. said an area of 400 by 400 square metres was burning at Summit Rd near Marley’s Hill. At 10pm, Crosson said the fire was still burning uncontained and residents on Summit and Worsleys roads were being evacuated. ‘Crews are currently working to prevent it jumping Summit Rd,’ she said. ‘Summit Rd will remain closed for the night.'” http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/89372687/large-christchurch-scrub-fire-out-of-control-second-fire-now-burning
Tuesday 14 February 2017
Not enough was done from dawn, by far, while confused officials argued jurisdiction.
Evacuation set #1 of 3 was ignored – emergency not declared, despite it already spanning two populated districts in very dry weather.
Marley’s Hill on 14 Feb 2017, view from the north, Lansdowne smoke to the south, warm west wind continues
SDC-1. Tai Tapu/Port Hills fires – update 10.30am “Two fires are continuing to burn this morning in the Tai Tapu/Port Hills area – one in the vicinity of Early Valley Road/Lansdowne, and the other in the Marley Hill area near the Summit Road. The fires cover an area of around 700 hectares. Fire status The Early Valley Road fire started yesterday evening at around 6pm. It has since crossed Summit Road around the Kennedy’s Bush area and at some other points. It is principally being fought by air with support from ground crews. Today crews will focus on protecting structures and controlling the fire, and protecting Kennedy’s Bush. The Marley Hill fire started in a car park around 7pm last night and spread west along the Summit Road area overnight. Protection of structures and the Christchurch Adventure Park and are also a focus for fire fighting. Both fires are now being managed by one Emergency Operations Centre based at Selwyn District Council’s Rolleston Headquarters as well as on site control points… Around 24 properties were evacuated last night with evacuations remaining in place currently. Tai Tapu School was opened last night to receive evacuees but closed last night with all evacuees staying with friends and family except for one family who accommodation was arranged for. No further evacuations are anticipated to be needed currently. One house has been confirmed destroyed by the fire, with a structure destroyed and one other house slightly damaged. All affected structures are in the Lansdowne area” http://www.selwyn.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/216187/Port-Hills-fire-update-10.pdf
Below Marley Hill, by mid-afternoon 15.02.17, smokes billows phenomenally with new flames, wind had just turned dry-easterly
Two fires rage on the Port Hills as one enters the Christchurch Adventure Park “fire retardant had been air-dropped on the top station earlier in the day. Selwyn District Council principal rural fire officer Douglas Marshall said the fire was ‘crawling through the under-matter at the bottom of the trees’ at the top of the park, and that fire crews weren’t too concerned about it causing a problem at this stage. A nearby crew is monitoring the situation. Firefighters earlier said two huge blazes in Christchurch’s Port Hills were now contained, although the battle to put them out was continuing. … The Selwyn District Council said the Marley Hill fire appeared to be largely contained on the city side of Summit Rd by 3pm. … Operations have slowed down for the night. Marshall said there was one crew monitoring the Marley Hill fire and three watching the one at Early Valley overnight. He was expecting it to be a quiet night as there was not much wind. … Twenty-four homes had to be evacuated overnight, and a group of children were among those rescued on Monday after becoming stuck near one of the fires. Selwyn principal rural fire officer Douglas Marshall said 11 helicopters and nearly 120 firefighters were working to contain the fires on Tuesday, and could be needed for another two or three days. Three two-member firefighting crews from the New Zealand Army had also been dispatched to help. ‘The second fire … [at Marleys Hill] is working around the radio mast that’s up in that area. It’s currently working down a ridge it’s probably the top end of the [Christchurch] Adventure Park area,’ Marshall said. ‘It’s not contained. It’s still burning quite strong. … A Fire Service spokesman said the Summit Rd fire had spread across 1.5 kilometres. The flames were too aggressive to battle in the dark, so firefighters working overnight concentrated on trying to stop it spreading further” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89376043/Two-fires-rage-on-the-Port-Hills-as-one-enters-the-Christchurch-Adventure-Park
2.30pm Sugarloaf helicopter crash and pilot death. Flying halted temporarily, stakes raised greatly.
Helicopter pilot dies while fighting Christchurch wild fires “Douglas Marshall, principal rural fire authority officer at the Selwyn District Council, said the accident was a tragedy. ‘Firefighting is difficult and dangerous work … our thoughts are with the deceased [person’s] family at this time.’ He said it was possible a number of pilots involved in helping to douse flames would want to stand down following the accident, and authorities were respecting that decision. In a statement, Selwyn District Emergency Management said the Marley Hill fire remains contained, although ground crews are monitoring activity along the Summit Rd. The other fire at Early Valley is also contained, but there are some spots of fire burning downhill from the ridgeline above Governors Bay and Allandale. Helicopters will continue to operate until nightfall tonight and from first light tomorrow. The area of both fires combined as estimated at about 580ha.” http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11800525
SDC-2.Tai Tapu/Port Hills fires – update 3pm “The Marley Hill fire appears to be largely contained on the city side of the Summit Road. Parts of the Early Valley Road fire have crossed the Summit Road towards Governors Bay. Current activity across both fires is focused on efforts to protect structures and prevent the fire from spreading.” http://www.selwyn.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/216188/Port-Hills-fire-update-3pm-14-Feb.pdf SDC-3.Tai Tapu/Port Hills fires – update 6.30pm “The current situation with the fires are that the Marley Hill Fire remains contained, although ground crews are monitoring activity along the Summit Road. Significant effort put into the Early Valley fire today has resulted in it being effectively contained, although there are some spots of fire burning downhill from the ridgeline above Governors Bay and Allandale. The New Zealand Fire Service is undertaking active structure protection in this area. Helicopters will continue to operate until nightfall tonight and from first light tomorrow. No further structures have been lost beyond those reported earlier.” http://www.selwyn.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/216189/PORT-HILLS-FIRES-6pm-update-14-Feb.pdf
Wednesday 15 February 2017
Governors Bay evacuations overnight by Civil Defence; that fire contained, residents returned.
Evacuation #2 of 3 was ignored – emergency not declared.
Smoke then fire broke out in a big way in the Cashmere Valley and Port Hills south-west of Christchurch city.
Chaos had been unleashed which led to panic, mass evacuations, misinformation and terrible overnight fear.
Evacuation #3, widespread in panic and south-west Port Hills areas affected, was acted upon:
6pm A local emergency was declared jointly by the Selwyn and Christchurch mayors.
Port Hills Fires, Christchurch, Feb 15th 2017 – YouTube time-lapses, Dru Norriss
Port Hills fires: Live updates – extract
“1:00am Marley’s Hill fire escalates, as fire spreads downhill through the forest.. within 150m of Sign of the Kiwi
3:00am 700 Governors Bay and Allandale residents evacuated. Governors Bay School which is closed today
5:00am Fire seen close to the chair lift at the Christchurch Adventure Park
7:00am City council activates the Emergency Operations Centre to coordinate the welfare operation
8:00am Helicopters are filling up monsoon buckets in the Heathcote River, corner of Hoon Hay Valley Rd and Cashmere Rd
9:00am –We’ve broken its back’: Governors Bay chief fire officer Andrew Norris
9.09am Health warning over smoke
9.27am Helicopters are using water from ponds and dams on farms in the Lansdowne area to fill monsoon buckets to fight the Early Valley Rd fire. Two helicopters can be seen in the air above the fire and two others are refueling.
10.34am Conditions are fine and dry as firefighters continue to tackle fires on the Port Hills. MetService forecaster Cameron Coutts said winds were gentle, at about 17km/h, at the moment and had been blowing south west for some time. A north east change with 37km/h winds should hit the hills from about mid-afternoon, before dying down tonight
12:30pm Technicians are waiting to get access to transmitters that operate the city’s emergency services dispatch, including ambulance and police. Power was lost on Monday at the Marley Hill location and it is operating on batteries
1:56pm Power outages across the city
2:30pm: More fire service resources are being sent to the Christchurch Adventure Park, to assess if structures can be saved
3:00pm Victoria Park is being closed as thick smoke billows from the Christchurch Adventure Park
3:10pm Fire units are on their way to Worsleys Rd, Kennedy’s Bush, after reports houses are being threatened
3:15pm Fire crews are currently working to control a flare up in Worsleys Spur area in the vicinity of the Christchurch Adventure Park.
3:25pm Police are evacuating residents from homes on Worsleys Rd near Summit Rd. Three houses are under threat from the fire. A Cashmere resident described it as an ‘inferno’
3:31pm Helicopter resources are stretched and one is not available at the moment to drop water on the Christchurch Adventure Park
3:59pm Police have cordoned off Westmorland at Cashmere Rd and are urging people to prepare for an evacuation.
5:10pm Reports of residents being evacuated from the Cracroft area.
5:18pm Police have confirmed houses on Kennedys Bush Rd and its intersecting streets are being evacuated. Residents are heading to Pioneer Stadium
5:28pm Fire service has just issued a directive for all vehicles to get off Dyers Pass Rd
5:32pm Fire fighters say the blaze will ‘punch’ its way out of McVicars Plantation and hit the first corner of Dyers Pass Rd below the Sign of Kiwi before dark
6:00pm A command centre has been set up at the Sign of the Takahe
6:15pm The mayors of Christchurch and Selwyn have made a joint decision to declare states of emergency in the areas
6:22pm Fire fighters battling flames at the Christchurch Adventure Park only have about an hours worth of water left. Crews are scrambling to get more water to them
6:41pm There are unconfirmed reports that Pentre Tce, by the Sign of the Takahe, is being evacuated
6:50pm Cashmere Rd is now closed from Kaiwara St to Kennedys Bush Rd due to evacuations in Lower Cashmere, Cracroft, Westmorland and Kennedys Bush
9:39pm Fire fighters at the Sign of the Takahe cordon are telling residents above the landmark to leave their homes as the fire spreads, with reports it has moved into Victoria Park
9:44pm Canterbury Regional Controller Neville Reilly has been deployed to the Christchurch Civil Defence Emergency Operations Centre to head the overall response to the fires
9:55pm Authorities issue urgent evacuations: ‘Residents in the area from the Sign of the Takehe to Victoria Park should evacuate their homes immediately. Authorities are advising that the fire has crossed Dyers Pass Road into Victoria Park. Police and the Defence Force are evacuating properties in the area. We are also evacuating the south side of Cashmere Road to Kennedy’s Bush Road, and to Hoon Hay Valley Road'” http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/live-update-day/
SDC-4.Tai Tapu/Port Hills fires – update 10am “Overnight increased fire activity was reported around midnight in the area above Governors Bay. Multiple fire units were called in from around the region to assist in firefighting and protecting properties. At approximately 3am fire and police evacuated around 107 residents from the Allandale area near Governors Bay, due to the fire risk. The Christchurch City Council has activated an Emergency Operations Centre to coordinate the welfare operation which includes a welfare centre at the Governors Bay school.” http://www.selwyn.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0019/216190/Port-Hills-fires-update-10am-15-Feb.pdf SDC-5.States of Emergency-declared in Christchurch and Selwyn “The Mayors of Christchurch City and Selwyn District have made a joint decision to declare States of Emergency in their respective areas in relation to the Port Hills fires. The declaration follows the evacuation this afternoon of 200-300 residents as the fire shifted closer to residential properties. It is no longer just a significant rural fire on the boundary of the city. It is now a city issue with suburbs being evacuated. Christchurch Mayor Lianne Dalziel says a city response is also required to ensure the safety and welfare of residents… Selwyn District Mayor Sam Broughton says, ‘we acknowledge there has been a huge effort responding to the fire to date, however this declaration recognises the seriousness of the situation, and this will allow us to provide all the assistance necessary to respond to the unfolding situation. The district and the city must work together to manage the situation and address the different challenges the fire is creating in each area.'” http://www.selwyn.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/216191/States-of-Emergency-declared-CHCH-Selwyn-15-Feb.pdf SDC-6.Port Hills/ Tai Tapu fire update: Residents should be prepared to evacuate – update 7.15pm “The Marley Hill fire has spread extensively down Worsley Spur, causing extensive vegetation burning in the Christchurch Adventure Park. The fire is approaching the residential area of Westmoreland.” http://www.selwyn.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/216192/Port-Hills-fire-update-7.15pm-Wed-15-Feb.pdf
Homes destroyed, families evacuated as Christchurch fires spread “More than 1000 residents have fled their homes and at least eight properties have burned to the ground as a huge wild fire rages on in Christchurch. Terrified residents ran clutching precious belongings or bundled children into cars as the black smoke ballooned from the flames tearing through tinder dry scrub land. Several fires have now merged into one which is threatening dense residential housing. The blaze is estimated to have scorched more than 1850ha of land and is still growing. A state of emergency was declared in Christchurch and Selwyn, the Defence Force was deployed and health authorities issued warnings to vulnerable residents as black smoke drifted across the city. Civil Defence revised down the number of homes destroyed on Worsley Spur tonight to at least three after earlier issuing a statement saying 40 homes had been lost. A spokeswoman said the error was the result of misinformation being given to a rural fire officer and was revised following a ‘correction from the police on earlier information’. The incorrect figure was widely reported earlier tonight by media and made it into some copies of the morning Herald. Little information was available on how the error occurred but hard questions will no doubt be asked of authorities in the morning” http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11801058
State of Emergency declared “Christchurch Mayor Lianne Dalziel and Selwyn District Mayor Sam Broughton made a joint decision to declare the State of Emergency. It follows the evacuation of 200-300 residents as the fire shifted closer to residential properties in the south-west. Minister of Defence Gerry Brownlee has announced New Zealand Defence Force personnel have been asked to assist with fighting the fires. Ms Dalziel said a city response was also required to ensure the safety and welfare of residents. ‘Christchurch needs a multi-agency response given the seriousness of the situation. We need to be able to draw on all the resources possible to give our residents confidence in the ongoing response.’ Mr Broughton said: ‘We acknowledge there has been a huge effort responding to the fire to date, however this declaration recognises the seriousness of the situation, and this will allow us to provide all the assistance necessary to respond to the unfolding situation. The district and the city must work together to manage the situation and address the different challenges the fire is creating in each area.'” http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/state-of-emergency-declared-city/
Editorial: Why did it take so long to declare state of emergency? “The terrifying change on Wednesday afternoon, which saw the situation deteriorate rapidly, shows there can be no room for complacency or confusion among those in charge of dealing with the emergency… Civil Defence Minister Gerry Brownlee expressed frustration that a state of emergency was not declared earlier by the Selwyn District Council, the lead agency in fighting the fires, or the Christchurch City Council, within the boundaries of which much of the burning land is situated. The emergency was eventually declared on Wednesday evening when flames threatened city suburbs, then destroyed more houses and forced mass evacuations. It was obvious to anyone that the situation was getting worse not better, when the amount of smoke rising from the hills expanded enormously. Questions will now need to be asked whether the Selwyn Rural Fire Authority acted decisively enough and quickly enough, deploying all available resources. For instance, it seems that tankers, equipment and personnel had been on standby at Burnham Military Camp, but could not move, by law, while the army waited for a request from the civil authorities that was slow in coming. Criticism of emergency services at the height of a crisis is easy to make and often ill-advised. However, it is clear that there are lessons to be learned from this emergency, and the various authorities will need to take an honest and hard look at themselves when it is over… people deserve the best possible leadership, and bosses who will take timely and decisive action to make their task easier.” http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/opinion/89454212/Editorial-Why-did-it-take-so-long-to-declare-state-of-emergency Comment RT – “Yes, it was the neutralisation of regional government by district and central government in cahoots, that left hills residents so dangerously out on a limb. Without that unseemly plot, collaboration and resources could have been swung in, through ECan CDEM services, from first light on the Tuesday to stop the fires cold. Shameful top-level performances, yet again: so ready to blame front-line fire-fighters, as at the CTV building collapse. Beyond shame, a deregulating City and Beehive are culpable!”
South Christchurch Port Hills, on dark, 15 Feb 2017 – Sugarloaf, Victoria Park and Worsleys Spur all fire-involved, left to right
Thursday 16 February 2017
After lower Sugarloaf had flared it soon went dark, with Victoria Park more flame-free overnight. But a day of downgraded hazard was needed for assurance that the fire was burning out up there, while it burnt on more strongly in the Adventure Park valley below and with the western fire areas more at risk under prevailing easterly wind conditions. A day of extended, thus exaggerated, panic pending better official reports from the fire fronts that were slow in coming – very formal conservatism characterises response from start to finish. ‘Safety first’.
Port Hills fires: Live updates – extract
“12.59am The Port Hill fires have now merged into one, developing significantly during the afternoon and into this evening. At least three additional houses have been destroyed in the area of Worsleys Rd
2am Six people from Pentworth Pl in Westmorland have been evacuated and are sleeping over at Te Hapua, which has been opened for evacuated residents, along with Nga Hau e Wha Marae. It appears most people that have been evacuated have found their own accommodation. In addition to rural fire staff, a group of 86 made up of 50 New Zealand Police and 36 New Zealand Defence Force personnel are working overnight on the Port Hills Fire response. They are doing evacuations, joint patrols and reassuring people in the areas impacted by the fires
3.25am There are still some very active fire fronts up on the Port Hills, but not as many as there were prior to midnight. A large number of fire crews have been on the ground working hard to protect properties overnight. A drop in fire activity can also be attributed to a decrease in temperature and a rise in humidity. Helicopters are expected to start an aerial attack at first light. Approximately 400 households have been evacuated in the areas around Victoria Park/Dyers Pass Road, Worsleys Rd, Westmorland and Kennedys Bush
4.55am Police are now evacuating residents downhill of the Sign of the Takahe on Dyers Pass Rd as far as and including Kiteroa Pl and Pentre Tce. Residents will be contact directly by police who are in the area now knocking on doors. If you feel unsafe, you are advised to self-evacuate. Police have continued to express concerns about traffic and people in the area and directed all non-residents to stay away, keeping it clear for emergency services
6.06am More than 1000 residents have fled their homes and at least eight properties have burned to the ground as a huge wild fire rages on in Christchurch. Several fires have now merged into one which is threatening dense residential housing. The blaze is estimated to have scorched more than 1850ha of land and is still growing.
6.24am The latest report is the fire has spread to the harbour side of Sugar Loaf. Evacuations are continuing on the Port Hills with a total of 450 properties officially evacuated. Others have self-evacuated as the fire spread overnight
6.44am Helicopter crews are starting to rejoin firefighting efforts. Aerial teams could be seen leaving the Christchurch Airport area at daybreak on Thursday
6.46am Civil Defence Minister Gerry Brownlee will arrive in Christchurch on Thursday morning. He has been critical of how long it took for a State of Emergency to be declared and questioned why rural firefighters were in charge of a fire inside the city boundaries.
6.55am Around 126 homes remain without power due to the fire
7.30am Broadcast provider Kordia has activated its disaster recovery plan as the fire engulfs land around Sugar Loaf. It has activated its disaster recovery plan and is transporting spare equipment to Christchurch
7.52am Military help for Christchurch is on standby – but hasn’t yet been asked for. Lieutenant Colonel Rob Loftus said almost 40 Defence Force personnel are on the ground so far. The Defence Force has been helping out with evacuations. Civil Defense minister Gerry Brownlee said it is up to the Fire Service to ask for further help – he is concerned they’ll leave it too late, Newstalk ZB reports
9:22am The Civil Defence bunker at Parliament is being activated
11.19am The impact of the fires on people is starting to be felt. Canterbury Civil Defence Controller John Mackie said they received a report of five incidents from health services. He said health and welfare services are also turning their attention to the psycho-social impact of the fires
11:32am More fire appliances are being called to the Christchurch Adventure Park to help battle the fire
12:12pm Firefighters in the Christchurch Adventure Park have setup monitoring stations at the base of the chairlift and cafe as a contingency plan
12:15pm Flames 6 to 8 metres tall are threatening a house at Kennedys Bush. Two fire crews are on the way
12.17pm Fire crews on Worsleys Rd have lost water pressure and are attempting to get it back
12.45pm Prime Minister Bill English and Gerry Brownlee are in the air surveying the fire scene
4:29pm Firefighters are calling for more water tankers up Kennedys Bush Rd to assist fighting the fire. They have asked for 4WD vehicle specifically. Firefighters have noticed another flare up
7:24pm Cordons remain in place with police and Defence Force staff patrolling
10:09pm ‘While there are still areas burning out of control, the fire is contained within the 2075 hectare area.'” http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/live-update-day/
Mayors defend actions after Minister Brownlee criticism “The two mayors met with Brownlee today and afterward Dalziel defended the handling of the fire, saying she and Broughton had declared the state of emergency to ensure people took it seriously when told to evacuate rather than because of the need for more resources. ‘We did that together not because it was needed for any resources to be brought to bear but because it was to give people confidence that when the Police told them they were to evacuate, they were to evacuate: this is an emergency.’ She said there were already sufficient resources in place to fight the fire and the state of emergency was called within an hour and a half of the mayors being advised people were being evacuated” http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11802069
Friday 17 February 2017
Editorial: Lack of information on Port Hills fires excruciating “Some will say that when a crisis of this magnitude hits, people need to get on with dealing with it, rather than telling people what is going on. This is misguided. Reliable information is crucial in dangerous times – to calm public anxiety, to mobilise resources from within the community, to tell people to move when they need to, and to warn people to stay away at times. … Fear and hysteria are more likely when people are ill-informed. In Christchurch this week, the state of emergency was declared 48 hours after the fires started, after mass evacuations began and only after a serious escalation of the blazes which might have been foreseen in a worst-case-scenario risk assessment. Civil Defence guidelines state that states of emergency should be declared ‘early rather than late’ – advice which seems to have been ignored in this case. No-one can doubt the bravery and dedication of those on the front lines, but there seems to have been blocked lines of communication at the strategic level. Maybe part of the problem is that New Zealand, a country of just 4.5 million people, has multiple layers of authorities and agencies with sometimes conflicting roles. The fires have burned across the boundaries of Christchurch City and Selwyn District, which is why the state of emergency was declared jointly by mayors Lianne Dalziel and Sam Broughton. How long did it take them to co-ordinate that decision? Could a single authority have done it more quickly? Brownlee had the power to declare an emergency himself, as did the wider-area Civil Defence Emergency Management Group, but they did not do so. The Selwyn Rural Fire Authority was the lead agency in fighting the fires, which seemed incongruous once houses in Christchurch city suburbs began to burn. There has to be a swifter and simpler way of dealing with emergencies, and in letting people know how to react. That needs to be one of the lessons learned from these fires.” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/89503846/editorial-lack-of-information-on-port-hills-fires-excrutiating
Port Hills fire: ‘Impact is the biggest in NZ history’ “The fire broke out on Monday night and was at it’s peak on Wednesday afternoon when two huge columns of smoke started to build, intensifying the flames and pushing crews to their limit. ‘A lot of people are asking why we weren’t putting water on it while it was burning away,’ said Rural Fire sector boss Phil Crutchley. ‘We were looking at 100,000 kilowatts of temperature per square metre – any water we put on that just evaporated. We just pulled back, it was just too dangerous. There was nothing we could do that would have stopped that.’ As a result, homes were lost and other properties damaged – but he made no apology. The columns had the power of two atomic bombs behind them and there was nothing on earth that could have been done to take the guts out of them.” http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/port-hills-fire-impact-is-the-biggest-in-nz-history/
Beginning of Port Hills fire: How McCarthy Contractors responded when they first saw smoke “Christchurch Mayor Lianne Dalziel and Selwyn Mayor Sam Broughton conceded there were communication problems between the different fire organisations in Canterbury, and declaring a state of emergency took too long.” http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11802653
Firefighters were sent home early from Christchurch fire response, union says “New Zealand Professional Firefighters Union Secretary Derek Best has called for an independent inquiry. He said firefighters were sent home for 90 minutes at nightfall on Monday after they had contained but not extinguished the fire. Just an hour and a half later they were called back to the scene, but it was too late. … an inquiry was needed not just into the fire services but into the entire disaster response. ‘Really the same issues from the Christchurch earthquake are still present.’ … Early Valley Rd homeowner Ken McKenzie believed … ‘If action had been taken quicker and we’d got more resources to the site … it should have been able to be stopped before it headed towards town. ‘If they got helicopters and bulldozers in, it could have been stopped. The issue I have is pretty much the organisation, the level above – there’s something drastically wrong.'” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89546268/firefighters-were-sent-home-early-from-christchurch-fire-response-union-says
Analysis: What could have been done to stop the Port Hills blaze? “Canterbury Civil Defence controller John Mackie says officials were ‘just going by the book’ when leaving the initial response to the fires to Selwyn’s rural fire team, rather than Christchurch officials. ‘That’s prescribed in the act… the responsibility for the rural fire lies on the authority in whose area it starts – even though it may cross a boundary, that jurisdiction doesn’t change.’ Mackie says Canterbury’s Civil Defence group set up an emergency operations centre early on Wednesday morning, as Governors Bay came under threat, and made the case for a state of emergency when evacuations started to increase later that afternoon. Christchurch Mayor Lianne Dalziel denies officials were too slow to declare a state of emergency, saying work on the declaration began ‘from the moment we were advised that people were being evacuated from their houses’. There was no issue of firefighters lacking in numbers, Mackie says – it was simply that they felt they had the fire under control, before the weather began to conspire against them. ‘The rural fire officers were saying that they had ample resources available: it was only when [there was an] escalation of the number of people being evacuated, and the [increased] risk to urban residents, that was the main reason for the declaration.’ But couldn’t there have been more helicopters with monsoon buckets in the air, or firefighters on the ground? Not according to Selwyn Mayor Sam Broughton, who says there are more choppers available than there is room for them. ‘We’re at saturation point in the sky – there’s not another helicopter that could fit in the space safely.’ … Labour Port Hills MP Ruth Dyson says lessons from the response to the fire can wait until after it is extinguished for good.” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/89466598/analysis-what-could-have-been-done-to-stop-the-port-hills-blaze
Mike Hosking critiques Civil Defence response, Seven Sharp 17 Feb 2017
In disasters, scale overwhelms sensibility. Reporting can far from keep pace. So many moving parts and uncertainties are involved that synchronisation is not possible. Responders are overwhelmed, trying to face down the unleashed hazard. Every scrap of resource is needed. This can include many, many volunteers. These are ground factors that will never be fully known, understood or controlled at a distance.
Hosking and Brownlee’s wish for centralised civil defence would be to put many more people in much greater harms way, without the ability to confront and respond to their own challenges immediately, directly and collectively, on the ground they discover and face. That is why what the mis-leaders want hasn’t been the case.
The regional system of response escalation simply needs to be understood, supported and made to work. This starts with identifying and removing the particular empowered obstacles to regional civil defence who oppose and inhibit it, to great public detriment. Look to the statements and behaviour of all the local mayors we’ve had especially. City has consistently undermined region, so far. Unacceptable.
Saturday 18 February 2017
Christchurch City Council and Civil Defence held a first large meeting with evacuated residents, in Spreydon’s South-West Baptist Church gymnasium on the Saturday morning ending a fiery week. Attendees were mostly from Kennedy’s Bush and very distressed. Easterly winds still held their homes most at risk, that they hadn’t really understood until this point. Recently-buried asbestos on private land was of great concern and news to most residents too; ECan fronted to say this had been approved. Every evacuated area was represented at the meeting where information flow was roundly criticised and a single online up-to-date source demanded; also, hourly email updates from council on what was happening. These started around mid-day the next day, semi-hourly. Collated: https://ccc.govt.nz/the-council/newsline/show/1406
Council’s primary goal out of this meeting was to break it down into more manageable, evacuated street by street meetings (which took place the following Thursday, 23 Feb). Next to the fire, residents were being hosed down now. They were understandably angered by inept emergency response leading to property damage, disruption and loss. After 90 minutes many were were walking out though and an outside corridor large informal meet-up ensued. The city mayor wanted to join it as the back of the gym audience hadn’t been connecting with the front, unheard due to poor microphone sharing and crowd engagement. Dalziel was peremptorily reminded by those still seated though, “We’re the ones paying attention!” and had to continue on-stage for a later closing.
Canterbury Medical Officer of Health, Alistair Humphreys addresses fire evacuees, 18 Feb 2017
NZ Fire Service, Rural Fire and Civil Defence etc reps answer fire evacuee questions, 18 Feb 2017
John Key’s government had sacked the wrong council, for private profit, early 2010. A regional response would have been more powerful, sooner, with likely much better results than this very obvious fire response debacle.
Communications and cordons heavily criticised at Port Hills meeting “Dalziel promised that the council would review the response and do better in the future. The meeting came a day after the professional firefighters union told media they could have extinguished the fire on Monday, had they not been sent home for 90 minutes.” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89559332/communications-and-cordons-heavily-criticised-at-port-hills-meeting
While Christchurch burns, Wellington talks “‘bringing together rural, urban, volunteer and paid urban firefighters into one national organisation for the first time’. The new Fire and Emergency New Zealand (Fenz) will mean ‘a much better standard of service delivery, a much better deal for our rural and volunteer firefighters and a much better deal for New Zealanders’ … The response in Christchurch suggested an uncoordinated system. Who should have called a state of emergency and when, exactly? Why, Brownlee asked, were the rural fire services leading things? ‘I’m perplexed as to why you’ve got the Selwyn District or rural firefighters running things inside Christchurch City Council district boundaries’ … The updated law, after advice from firefighters, will clarify that letting a fire burn can be a valid response to a fire. … only NZ First was opposed to moving this legislation on to the next phase. … Two reports from Australia have convinced him [Clayton Mitchell] that mergers of urban and rural services favour the urban culture at the expense of rural. Do we risk driving the rural volunteers away?” [emphasis added] http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/89488611/while-christchurch-burns-wellington-talks
Mike Yardley: Response to Christchurch fires from officials ‘rudderless’ “as the past seven days have unfolded, a multitude of alarm bells have been rightly rung about the cack-handed response and somewhat rudderless leadership from officialdom. The acting Civil Defence Minister, Gerry Brownlee, was far from alone in feeling ‘perplexed’ at the belated nature of the state of civil emergency being declared. Social media lit up on Wednesday afternoon, as the inferno raging across the Port Hills seemingly galloped out of control. Hundreds of residents vented their increasing dismay and disbelief at the apparent failure of the Selwyn and Christchurch mayors to get to grips with the enormity of the ever-billowing threat. Individuals were pleading with Mayor Dalziel and senior city councillors, via their Facebook pages, to urgently declare a state of emergency. It took a further two hours after Westmorland was suddenly evacuated at 4pm, before the declaration was issued. Some hillside residents had packed and were ready to self-evacuate at 1pm. They could see the situation gravely deteriorating, first-hand.” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89612043/mike-yardley-response-to-christchurch-fires-from-officials-rudderless
– Yardley’s anti-ECan positioning has long blinded him to insight into defective regional response. Use what we have, don’t hinder it! Yardley’s wanting “declaration issued much earlier in the afternoon” is a joke. First thing Tuesday was the right time, the only time to have hit the fires from the air with everything possible and cauterise the threat. A declaration then would have been entirely reasonable, given the extreme dry hills risk at this time and that fire spanned two district boundaries – the ECan CDEM action trigger, purportedly. Declaration early Tuesday and military resources were available as regional council options, but ECan naysayers like Mike and Gerry have it firmly in a sealed box, held captive and useless. At least Huntsbury remained safe. Not.
Port Hills fire – Update Tuesday 12:20pm: State of Emergency extended
“‘this remains a serious situation that requires a significant and coordinated multi-agency response,’ the Mayor said. ‘While the State of Emergency terminates tomorrow evening, we are mindful of the significance of 22 February to the Canterbury community and as a result we agreed it was appropriate to consider the status of the State of Emergency today.’ The extension automatically lasts for seven days, but can be terminated earlier. The Joint Committee will meet on Friday to consider the transition to recovery. That will be an appropriate time to reconsider the need for the State of Emergency to remain in place” https://ccc.govt.nz/the-council/newsline/show/1406
Christchurch Civil Defence
Port Hills Fire – Update #8 – 5.30pm
“Fire progress: The Fire Service is pleased to announce that good progress has been made in controlling the fire in the Worselys Road area. Patrols will continue in the area, but crews will no longer be actively working in the area unless called in for a flare up. Residents are asked to help by being vigilant and to DIAL 111 IMMEDIATELY IF THEY SEE ANY SIGN OF THE FIRE REIGNITING. ‘Our crews have made great progress and we’re pleased to be able to pull back from the Worsleys area, but we really need people to keep a watch on things for us,’ said Fire Service Liaison Officer Bruce Irvine. ‘The more eyes we have out there looking the better.’ Fire services are continuing operations in other areas affected by the fire.”
Christchurch Civil Defence
Port Hills Fire – Update #3 – 1pm
“Fire operations: Fire services advise that 90% of the fire perimeter area is now considered to be controlled. Controlled is defined as bare earth or blacked out ground for at least 10 metres.”
Residents Update:
Port Hills Fire – Update #4 – 1.30pm
“Free GP visits are being offered to people affected by the Port Hills fires, at the discretion of their General Practice team. This includes people who worked on or are still working on fire control and recovery operations. The offer period covers the 2 months from 13 February 2017, the day the fire started.”
Fire perimeter now fully contained and controlled “Fire authorities working on the Port Hills fire are now confident the fire is substantially under control and are withdrawing overnight patrols.” https://ccc.govt.nz/the-council/newsline/show/1406
Mayors’ war of words with Brownlee over Port Hills state of emergency “Mr Brownlee said the most accurate information about the fire on Wednesday came from the media – not officials. Those in charge of the fire response have ‘got to learn’ from this experience, Mr Brownlee said. ‘I was in Wellington, not Christchurch.’ Prime Minister Bill English also confirmed there will be a review of the Civil Defence response and the delay in declaring a state of emergency.” http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/mayors-war-of-words-with-brownlee-over-port-hills-state-of-emergency.html
Port Hills fire: 1000 people forced to evacuate “For the second time, James Frost has lost a home to disaster in Christchurch. He said he found out at 11pm on Wednesday that the fire had reached his evacuated home.. while most police officers were good, one of his flatmates was left in tears because of a police officer who ‘didn’t have the people skills to deal with the scenario'” http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/port-hills-blaze-evacuees-forced-to-leave-everything-behind.html
1. We all mean well, at least initially, and struggle to express this, struggling to exist with others.
2. As an intensely competitive species, with social context from the start, our struggle can employ critical thought, interactive dialogue and peaceful techniques, or default to violence (habituated from hunting meat).
3. We want and need to work together, the question is how.
4. Compassionate, affinity and spiritual emotions seek more than second place.
5. Agreement on anything is amongst our greatest challenges, words always fail us.
6. Religion emerged in human history to forge large-scale agreements, especially in law for peace.
7. Agreement, truth and belief are related within culture, that scientific method tests into known facts.
8. Belief and faith were culturally-sanctioned agreements pre-dating science and survive subjectively.
9. Religion was not only the law we had, before we developed secular, rights-based law.
10. Religion was also the science we had, before we developed science.
11. Religion was the medicine we had, before we developed medicine.
12. Religion was the politics we had, before we developed politics.
13. Religion was the arts form we had, before we re-liberated the arts.
14. Other forms of all these things existed before we developed religion.
15. Religion filled many gaps for many years, before we improved the knowledge and expertise.
16. Religion made systematic a compassionate choice for the earliest organised societies, for good.
17. Religion was the original statecraft, and as such is inapplicable and unavailable, locally today.
18. Hope for a better world that conforms with derived belief has many still clinging to religion.
19. The world and universe do not conform with belief, human or supernatural, being composed of discernible material facts, from the atom up (not from ‘heaven’ down – metaphysics are illusory).
20. The material world (in human form) makes belief possible, not the other way around – no super-human being made the world, to suit itself, or actually exists to ‘create’ belief.
21. The growth of religion has been primarily the growth of human unity of purpose, always needed, through common points of belief.
22. Religious study teaches us things about human unity that nothing else can, our major driver.
23. Religion is easily misunderstood, undervalued and dismissed, as a social fact, to our detriment.
24. Religion has always been exploited to justify evil killing, not killing evil, which needs to cease.
25. Our tribal nature explains most about religion and transcendence it can bring.
26. What makes a god real in one culture is the same for every god in every other culture.
27. Faith as a unifying mechanism merges many gods into one god, logically and historically.
28. From many gods (polytheism, superstitious causation theory) came one god (monotheism, politically unified superstitious causation, enabling unified-market economic prosperity).
29. Superstitious belief held science, markets and industrial transformation back, unsuccessfully in western Europe – until the Reformation (battles for diversity of belief).
30. Amongst the nastiest people you are ever likely to meet can be those professing a religious faith, when it comes to competitiveness on the material plane. Viz. global bloodshed: insincere.
[Fourth draft – more to come – thanks for visiting]
The 14 November early-morning debacle 2016, where false tsunami evacuation alerts panicked so many into a dark night after the Wairau 7.8-magnitude earthquake, was unacceptable waste and fear-mongering cry-wolf. Some had homes looted that public donations then had to compensate.[1] These Christchurch city alarms should not have been sounded for this event, two hours too late anyway. Many chose correctly to ignore them. What is going on? Blame government that does not seem to care or even know how to.
The fact is, government knew there was no tsunami risk from the first evaluation but still allowed the panic to waste massive time and resource energy:
“314
WEPA42 PHEB 140042
TIBPAC
TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
0042 UTC MON NOV 14 2016
THIS STATEMENT IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.
NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
INFORMATION.
* MAGNITUDE 6.8
* ORIGIN TIME 0034 UTC NOV 14 2016
* COORDINATES 42.7 SOUTH 173.4 EAST
* DEPTH 10 KM / 6 MILES
* LOCATION SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
EVALUATION
———-
* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 6.8 OCCURRED IN
SOUTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND AT 0034 UTC ON MONDAY NOVEMBER 14
2016.
* BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA… THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT
FROM THIS EARTHQUAKE.
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
——————-
* NO ACTION IS REQUIRED.
NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
————————————–
* THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED OR THE SITUATION CHANGES.
* AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV/EARTHQUAKES -ALL LOWER CASE-.
* FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV AND AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.
* COASTAL REGIONS OF HAWAII… AMERICAN SAMOA… GUAM… AND
CNMI SHOULD REFER TO PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES
SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE PLACES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.
* COASTAL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA… OREGON… WASHINGTON…
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD ONLY REFER TO U.S.
NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES THAT CAN BE FOUND
AT NTWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.
“If tsunami warning sirens sound, or you receive an official warning to evacuate, evacuate the coastal evacuation zones for your district.. You will have several hours to evacuate.. The most likely regional tsunami source for Pegasus Bay is the Hikurangi subduction zone fault, off the Wairarapa/Hawke’s Bay/East Coast coast.. A tsunami from this fault would likely take around 1-3 hours to reach Pegasus Bay. It is unlikely to be large here, but it may flood low lying areas around Sumner, the estuary and Lyttelton Harbour. Sea heights above sea level at the time here would probably be around 1-3 metres.. The chances of a local source tsunami being generated by an earthquake in Pegasus Bay are low and have not changed significantly as a result of the recent earthquakes. Scientists have discovered some earthquake faults on the sea floor in Pegasus Bay, but they appear to move very infrequently (once every few thousand or tens of thousands of years). They are not thought to be big enough, and therefore would not produce enough vertical (up and down) movement, to create a significant tsunami that would flood large amounts of land.. Tsunami sirens will be sounded for a distant source tsunami, where they are installed. If you hear the sirens, you must evacuate the tsunami evacuation zones for your district. You will have several hours to evacuate.” http://ecan.govt.nz/advice/emergencies-and-hazard/tsunami/pages/default.aspx http://ecan.govt.nz/publications/General/q-files-tsunamis-booklet.pdf from http://ecan.govt.nz/advice/emergencies-and-hazard/Pages/booklets-q-files.aspx
Clearly officials panicked at seeing tide levels drop suddenly on 14.11.16, without knowing this was because of shoreline up-thrust. These officials then panicked others, and members of the public into leaving their homes unnecessarily, most ignorant of the actual low risk. The wrongly-imprinted hazard image – of a massively destructive high wall of water coming instantly ashore (like the Boxing Day 2004 Aceh, Indonesia or the March 2011 Sendai, Japan tsunami) – DOES NOT APPLY HERE. All this confusion should come out with the promised investigation of the 14.11.16 response. We live in hope, that it will be both a timely and productive investigation.[2]
The public should take from all this the lesson, to learn what actual tsunami risk exists for their home area and take appropriate precautions. Prepare appropriately and do not be panicked about imagined large tsunami risk in Canterbury ever again.
The difference is, the Alpine Fault is our tectonic plate impact zone – strong enough to build very high mountains (transform fault) – and this is the direct opposite kind of tectonic plate impact to that capable of producing tsunami (subduction fault). FACT. Fear not large tsunami here. Please do share and enlighten further.
The Civil Defence earthquake-tsunami mantra, “Long or strong, get gone” is not argued with here as potentially life-saving general education. But Christchurch’s experience of the 14.11.16 Waiau quake was ‘moderately long but not strong’ so it was not valid cause for fearful running from local shores or for official alarm-sounding. The alarm was therefore a misguided political act: to satisfy public expectations (of an alarm) incorrectly set. Let us work together now to repair this widely cast misconception of risk and relevant response.
[2] Tweet: “MCDEM @NZcivildefence Nov 13 [UTC] People on the east coast (including the Chatham Islands) close to the epicentre can expect waves of 3-5 metres. Move to high ground #eqnz” Earthquake: Deaths, major damage after severe 7.5 quake hits Hanmer Springs, tsunami warning issued “One person died at a property at Mt Lyford, north of Christchurch. The low-lying seaside suburb of Sumner was deserted after residents evacuated, and schools closed for the day. Lyttelton tunnel has been closed until further notice. A New Brighton family who evacuated their home after the quake returned to find their house ransacked by burglars. Matt Mill said they family-of-four had left their home about 2am, after the tsunami risk was broadcast. They returned to their Bower Ave home about 6.30am to find their home damaged, not from the shaking, nor any tsunami, but by burglars who took advantage of a suburb empty of people. Mill said the burglars stole televisions, sports gear and distressingly, a transmitter for his daughter’s hearing aid. His work truck was also stolen. Linwood resident Alice Coats said the tsunami sirens have been going went off intermittently for a couple of hours. The quake felt like a long wave, Coats said. ‘So, we all knew it was a big one.’ As soon as the tsunami warning came in, it was a little more frightening, so she jumped into her car with her flatmate, and went to the airport. Coats said the vagueness of the Civil Defence warnings were frustrating. Tsunami sirens started sounding along Christchurch’s coastline at 2.14am. A significant amount of traffic moved away from New Brighton and other coastal suburbs towards central Christchurch and the Port Hills. Police and Civil Defence have closed the tunnel (State Highway 74), which links Christchurch with the seaside suburb of Lyttelton. The tunnel has been closed temporarily for checks following previous large earthquakes. In the CBD, hotels and occupied buildings were evacuated.” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86416268/Earthquake-Deaths-major-damage-after-severe-7-5-quake-hits-Hanmer-Springs-tsunami-warning-issued 14 November 2016 + Earthquake: Tsunamis hit, warnings downgraded “Several evacuation centres had been set up in the Waimakariri district, north of Christchurch. Welfare centres had been set up at the Woodend Community Centre, Rangiora Baptist Church, Oxford School Hall, and the Kaiapoi Rugby Club. Linwood College has been set up as a evacuation point for people who have left their home in Christchurch.. People living on low-lying ground within one kilometre of the Christchurch coastline had earlier been advised to evacuate inland or to higher ground as a precaution. Tsunami sirens activated at 2.14am in Christchurch’s coastal suburbs, more than an hour after the first tsunami warnings were issued by Civil Defence. The sirens, located from Brooklands to Taylors Mistake, were meant to sound for about 10 minutes to alert residents they could need to evacuate. A significant amount of traffic could be seen heading away from New Brighton and other coastal suburbs towards central Christchurch and the Port Hills. Early on Monday morning police were driving around the New Brighton area with flashing lights on” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86416653/cheviot-quake-tsunami-warnings-issued (oh-so-wrong?) MCDEM graphic:
Coastal Christchurch residents criticise delay in tsunami warning system “A delay activating tsunami warning sirens could have been life-threatening to those living in Christchurch beach suburbs, residents say. Some are demanding answers as to why sirens did not sound until about 2am, two hours after the magnitude-7.5 earthquake struck and an hour after the national civil defence website instructed coastal residents to move to higher ground immediately. ‘Something needs to be done,’ New Brighton resident Shanna Howden said. If there had been a large wave, Howden questioned whether people could have escaped in time. Heavy traffic and bad roads meant it took 45 minutes for them to get out of New Brighton. ‘There must be a way to put something in place to make it a smoother process,’ she said. Tsunami warnings come from the Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management (MCDEM) in Wellington but local authorities are responsible for civil defence emergency management in their own areas. MCDEM posted its first tsunami warning on its website at 1am. The warning was repeated at 1.30am and not lifted until 3.39am. In Christchurch, the tsunami sirens began at 2am and sounded well beyond dawn. However, messages sent by the ministry to the duty officer at the Christchurch City Council and the Canterbury civil defence emergency management group were less clear. Christchurch mayor Lianne Dalziel said she was more interested in learning from the experience than casting blame. ‘I don’t know what went wrong but it’s important we fix this.’ Canterbury civil defence emergency group controller Neville Reilly said the council’s duty officer had relied on the group’s advice. The group’s decision to wait a couple of hours before firing the sirens was done in consultation with a tsunami scientist but without the knowledge that MCDEM was already instructing evacuation on its website. ‘It would have been nice if there wasn’t the confusion coming from emails which were different from the website,’ he said. ‘The worst thing you want to do is cry wolf although safety is paramount. There’s no black and white.’ MCDEM was unable to respond on Monday.” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86439726/coastal-christchurch-residents-criticise-delay-in-tsunami-warning-system 14 November 2016
Christchurch Star https://issuu.com/the.star/docs/116322cs 17 November 2016 (censored?) Civil Defence overhaul ‘inevitable’ after tsunami warning confusion: Govt 17 November 2016 http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86441740/civil-defence-overhaul-inevitable-after-tsunami-warning-confusion-govt GNS: Tsunami caught us by surprisehttp://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318506/gns-tsunami-caught-us-by-surprise 20 November 2016 + Govt to push for tsumani text message systemhttp://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/318473/govt-to-push-for-tsumani-text-message-system Civil Defence’s earthquake response to be reviewedhttp://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318584/civil-defence’s-earthquake-response-to-be-reviewed 21 November 2016 Minister criticises GeoNet’s funding callhttp://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318618/minister-criticises-geonet’s-funding-call 22 November 2016 Review of tsunami alerts likely after Kaikoura earthquake “All in all the response to the early morning Kaikoura earthquake seems to have been a bit of a shambles. Frightening for some and a non-event for others.. warning came out from National Civil Defence at 1.20am. Problems had hit the MCDEM website just after 1am with people advised to follow updates on their Facebook and Twitter instead.” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86742260/review-of-tsunami-alerts-likely-after-kaikoura-earthquake 24 November 2016 Comment:
“Straw Man – please decommission the Christchurch ones too. They caused unnecessary panic and are not even required. Many hours to evacuate in the case of a large tsunami, and not required for local quakes – there is no sub-duction zone off the ChCh coast. And yes, im aware of the 0.5m tsunami from the Kaikora EQ. It was not worth evacuating thousands of people. There was more risk of death or injury resulting from panicking drivers doing dumb things. Also, Pegasus bay does not funnel the swell into a confined space such as little pidgeon bay either. Start with a little education a[nd] ditch this ridiculous culture of fear that we have developed.”
9 December 2016 Huge earthquake hits off Solomons, sparks tsunami warning for New Zealand “The earthquake triggered possible tsunami threats across the Pacific. Waves between one metre and 3m were possible along some coasts of the Solomon Islands, with waves from 30cm to 1m possible in Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu, the US Pacific Tsunami Warning Center predicted. A tsunami watch for New Zealand had been issued, but since cancelled by Civil Defence” http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/87378899/Huge-earthquake-hits-off-Solomons-sparks-tsunami-warning-for-New-Zealand + Live: Huge earthquake strikes Solomon Islands http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/87379714/Live-Huge-earthquake-strikes-Solomon-Islands + Initial reports suggest ‘3000 people affected’ by earthquake off Solomon Islands “A tsunami watch for New Zealand had been issued, but since cancelled by Civil Defence. Civil Defence continued to advise people to stay out of the water owing to the threat of unusual currents, but said there was no threat to beaches and land. Earlier, Civil Defence controller Sarah Stewart-Black had told RNZ this was ‘not the same situation as after the Kaikoura earthquake’. The US Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said tsunami waves were forecast to be less than 30cm for New Zealand. They could take 4-5 hours to arrive, Civil Defence said. Waves between one metre and 3m were possible along some coasts of the Solomon Islands, with waves from 30cm to 1m possible in Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu, the US authority predicted” http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/87378899/81-magnitude-earthquake-hits-solomons–usgs + Magnitude 6.5 earthquake strikes off coast of Northern California “no tsunami warning, advisory or threat in effect following the earthquake” http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/87378423/Magnitude-6-5-earthquake-strikes-off-coast-of-Northern-California
21 December 2016 Coping with an increased risk of quakes “are we in the midst of a period of heightened risk?” asserts random dispersion, no pattern to recent large earthquakes: “The 7.8 Kaikoura quake was one of four earthquakes greater than Magnitude 7 in the last 7 years, and one of only five tremors of that magnitude or larger ever recorded in New Zealand. A similar period of increased activity was seen between 1929 and 1942 when New Zealand experienced a third of all earthquakes of magnitude 7 or larger recorded in the last 160 years..” http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/201828532/coping-with-an-increased-risk-of-quakes
9 January 2017 Tsunami evacuation spurs action “Civil Defence will be boosted in Little River and Birdlings Flat after residents living near the sea had nowhere to evacuate to after the 7.8 magnitude earthquake on November 14” http://www.star.kiwi/2017/01/tsunami-evacuation-spurs-action/
Last week’s Audio Culture profile brings back memories, and myths that can now be dispelled, thanks to the internet. For the benefit of supporters of The Johnnies, and of posterity, here is more information from one who was there, re: http://www.audioculture.co.nz/people/the-johnnies
AudioCulture.co.nz 22.7.15
From the top; yes Jolly-Ups spawned The Johnnies, and were a ska group with ‘Rudy’ Bruce Curtis as their laugh-a-minute singer who prided himself on wearing “dead men’s suits” from second-hand stores; when he was dressed! They were great fun. Bass player Mike Smith and Rudy had been work colleagues of mine so when the time became right I joined their music progression. Mike had Neil McRobie as drummer, making a solid rhythm section, then found keen guitarist Vince Haughey. Yes, every punk was at the Gladstone pub venue those days, including Vince. That The Johnnies were never invited to play the Gladstone seemed unfair, especially to Vince.
The Johnnies, guitar section, in Battle of the Bands, Star and Garter cJun82
After the Jolly-Ups had (played the Gladstone and) folded, so had my first full band, so by completing Vince’s three chord thrash, The Johnnies got us all going anew – after 1981, a dramatic year in NZ-UK. My role was lead vocals and sometimes second rhythm / feature guitar. We all wrote most of the songs together, and me most of the original lyrics. I wasn’t new at it, which was why I was asked to join.
From Mairehau High, 1978 was the last and schoolboys The Plague practise year, writing and learning songs and a set at a hired church hall in Burwood with my brother Chris and friends. This we got kicked out of for loud obscenity / being too punk. Fair enough! Better things awaited. Leaving school and home, our Gloucester Street, Linwood flat (just down the road from Paul Kean and Jane Walker of Toy Love) became base for Plastic Impact and entry to the Christchurch pub entertainment scene. All having jobs, we could buy equipment and beer. This punk, new wave-looking band went well and did many gigs at local halls and pubs over the next two and a half years, and had a good following. We upheld “The Plague” anthem, more original works, and some Ramones, Pistols, Wire, Buzzcocks, Voidoids, etc covers that people loved dancing to.
Impact terminated to saddened calls of “Don’t break up!” at the Arts Centre one Saturday night mid-1981, still gaining audience but setting everyone free with the same earnings share. I had been lead singer and manager. Chris (later Anzak) took a new course with The Solatudes (pre-Wastrels) sharp, tuneful rock, moving from guitar to bass, influenced by glam (also Doors, Beatles). I started learning guitar, and practised with The Orggies three-piece from the Impact circle, still on vocals doing basic all-original work. We played the Gladstone once, and nowhere else I can recall. No legacy remains of that short period (until now).
But the core punk ethos was still gaining strength, against new wave trend, and so the Johnnies formed. From punk transition came division, nee joy. This was very much an echo of 1981, characterised by civil protest stopping a Springbok rugby tour, Brixton Riots, Muldoon-Reagan-Thatcher rule, miners’ strikes, South American invasions and Falklands war. Counter-politics had voice and platform in punk. As did regular partying.
A practise room was rented, above Peaches and Cream on St Asaph/Colombo Street corner, and used diligently. Mike, Rudy and I were all students before long, and eventually shared a flat with other friends in Peverell Street, Riccarton, which was very enjoyable.
But a sexist line in the signature song “Who killed Johnny?” was required of whoever would sing for this band. As artistic portrayal of a warmly memorialised character, I chose to show willing to air it. Changing ideas is neither easy nor quick.
The Johnnies’ first performance opportunity came through a social connection of the new band, and this was to mark it permanently. A Sunday afternoon backyard drinking session hosted us, a private party at the home of casual white supremacists, for maybe a gang. The boot cause took a shine to us instantly and attended almost every Johnnies gig to come. From this notoriety grew. We never fed it consciously – listen to the recording – and this occasion would be the only negative fact about The Johnnies to unearth, for what it’s worth.
None of The Johnnies had a skinhead punk persona. But many of our audience did. Confrontations with police happened where we played, with an incident outside Caledonian Hall making a newspaper headline. So controversy began and festered.
This was the band’s first public appearance, around the height of the skinhead punk phase, when a minority were diverting Oi into nazi-punk. This drift necessitated the term neo-punk, or abandonment of punk altogether by some adherents, over time. There was an atmosphere of typical youth rebellion, with politics non-specific; that was most of the ‘skins’ – generally exuberant, harmless rockers, going through a youth phase. A few more gigs were found, with better detail listed by Audio Culture than I can write. A Horticultural Hall performance maybe too? A minority of times there were problems, but when there were they stuck.
AEB Johnnies etc gig 270583
The Star, Christchurch punk headline news, 280583
The lowlight eclipsed a high for The Johnnies, at a Battle of the Bands mid-winter in the Star and Garter hotel, 1982. Playing last, we powered through a blistering set. The dance floor was packed and pumping, demanding more, perhaps the biggest crowd we ever engaged with. We had run out of songs. This one-and-only encore ever required of The Johnnies could only be “Who killed Johnny?” played again. Happy punters! Then to the judges. Moderate calm anticipation; but they had already left and given the decision to the previous act, Ballon D’Essai – newly-formed, quieter, more sharply composed post-punk, new wave. Much less of a dance band that day. Jordan Luck was there. The judges must have picked technical skill / musicianship over sheer momentum. It felt like injustice to most people there. The place spontaneously erupted. Boot girl and boy rage let rip on the hotel doors, lower walls and maybe washroom porcelain; other pub gang presence got involved too, apparently. The venue was vacated pretty promptly, before authorities arrived. The Johnnies could rarely get bookings to play after that.
Skin gig violence spelt a definite end to punk-era fun, and peaked the following year, as documented around Evasive Action. It was atypical of original punk mind-expansion and drove most far away from it.
Caledonian Hall audience at a typical gig – Evasive Action c1983 – pic David Cookexhibition book
The Johnnies, rhythm section, in Battle of the Bands, Star and Garter cJun82
Differences and minor scraps may have put The Johnnies off any prospect of touring together, but mostly we all had jobs or studies that we were committed to. This was a disciplined, professional outfit, in enough ways, if somewhat oxygen-deprived. The shining exception was an Otago foray, to play upstairs at a small pub with the PD Boys, who were good company. I’m unsure where they came from – Ashburton? – or what happened for them next. The PD Boys and The Johnnies contrasted the national pop “Dunedin sound” taking hold through that time, so no ovations there. A good after-party though.
Speaking of PD, The Johnnies’ only run-in with the law was some being stopped in our friend’s car, by the Hereford Street police after placing a poster on their station wall. How very unjust! 😉 lol
The Johnnies, lead guitar section, in Battle of the Bands, Star and Garter cJun82
Guitar with social commentary sounds parallel to The Johnnies were Gang of Four and Killing Joke – far from Oi bands. We existed near the boundary of Oi, as did every punk band in early-80s Christchurch, of which there were several. Oi fought weakly for the heart of all these music groups and got nowhere as far as I know. It wasn’t like England, where football support tours got taken over for pitched battles around this time. In New Zealand we are typically liberal-left, always improving our embrace of cultural diversity; so too in Christchurch predominantly. If an individual chose to pitch The Johnnies to an Oi audience, in an Oi way as the archived PJ’s gig poster indicates, that was beyond democratic decision of the band and of arguable significance: a misguided and isolated expression of graphic free speech. We were in it for the music, enjoyment and an appreciated profile, at the end of the day. Marketing is very difficult to monopolise and image even harder to control.
Bands most closely related to The Johnnies were Unauthorised and Desperate Measures. Of course The Androidss broke ground for us all and had just played out. Ballon D’Essai surprised at the Gladstone.
Although we’d all get on fine now, at the time young musicians can be egotistical and very competitive. Fault-finding is qualification for ‘cool’ discrimination. In that light came The Star interview and slanted comment that Andrew Schmidt repeats for Audio Culture. My non-appearance at the cited interview was by accident, not intention, contempt or having “nothing to say”. Quite the opposite. A lot of band organising had fallen to me, then a full-time student, including studio booking, manufacture, distribution and publicity for The Johnnies’ EP. Without gigs we needed some kind of outlet! The Wellington trip to EMI record-press enabled the Chelsea Records drop from which Schmidt’s disc purchase became possible. So it was a case of – as one wouldn’t expect – forgetting a last, most important action: the Star media interview appointment. I had set all the guys up to go, after which the date slipped my own mind as lead organiser attending lectures. Unfortunately mistakes happen. This made The Johnnies look unaccountable and maybe worse.
Punk had extreme innovation and energy – it could find any direction, and did. What happened with The Johnnies was a bit like the Sex Pistols, when Glen Matlock (who brandished a picture of Karl Marx on his bass) was replaced by Sid Vicious (who could barely play). These people were many of our generation’s heroes, our inspiration, and Sid’s fate was symptomatic of steady degradation of wit, tone and point, getting ‘out of it’ on the substances of rock ‘n’ roll lifestyle, and dilution of all-important social critique into awful consumerism. Branded.
Johnnies farewell gig UCSA Jan84
The final Johnnies gig was probably its best though, at the University of Canterbury Students’ Association upstairs bar, late January 1984. Our sound was really tight, powerfully motivating and on the edge. People thrilled to hear it, most often for a single time, and met it with their feet. Then their hearts and minds? The Johnnies had gained tuuturu punk mystique through struggle to exist, and a smooth routine on instruments; a story ending well.
This was a farewell party performance, for my brother’s next new band and my own, and all our friends, as we two were UK-bound. Leaving Christchurch and music behind, for a very long time, was a sure way of resolving the tension between Johnnies popularity and frustration. I sold my black Telecaster and Rockit amplifier so there could be no turning back. Politics was better pursued without a soundtrack, I was learning (like Peter Garrett).
Caption to close: A Christchurch punk post-Chile-Panama-Falklands anti-militarist caricature act exits stage left.
Postscript: Both The Gladstone and the Star and Garter got pulled down, before and after the Canterbury earthquakes, and are fondly remembered by very many musicians and audiences. Excellent days and nights! Thank you everyone who played a positive part. Kia ora.
Copyright – Rik Tindall 2015-2020 – please contact me if you wish to republish.
[Page under development – more text/pix to follow – do return later]
Since this article, The Johnnies reunion eventually began – at The Club Tavern in Sydenham over some beers – mid-January 2019. The guys geared up through the year, practised quite regularly (except for a winter lull) and performed 3 gigs: drummer Neil’s birthday party (with The Androidss) at The Black Horse Tavern in Middleton early May, then at The Embankment Tavern in Philipstown 29 Nov, on to 31 Dec: a first ever headline billing, with new print media coverage..
Some words from the field of public discourse, Aotearoa New Zealand, where dirty politics reign.
Of all the people on Earth, a small proportion become known for leading obviously political lives. Most have more sense, as it is a sure way to make enemies – and who needs that? Quite right.
But of those who do, I assume most are like me, and have made the decision on at least two assumptions for promoting ethical values and goals in public service: 1. politics is what they would be good at, as a use of skills and talents; and 2. politics would be a good thing to do, as a use of time.
It is important to know and admit when one has been wrong about anything. It is important to know when to stop; with a speaking of truth, a telling of personal story..
A wave of popular consciousness and revulsion, at the effects of rampant hinterland dairy farm conversion, had Christchurch educated and determined for change in 2007. Of four environmental candidates then elected to Environment Canterbury Regional Council (Ecan), I was one of two with the Save Our Water campaign:
Save Our Water website, 2007-2008
We were put there to haul back corruption – of Canterbury’s natural environment, and of politics enabling it.
We had an effect, because the National-ACT government elected in 2008 had us sacked in April 2010, themselves defrauding rate-payers and democracy with trumped-up charges. For example, the consent-processing rate had already been remedied – to deal with the irrigation flood of demand – well before commissioners were even decided for. This was evidenced in the Wyatt Creech Report, which saw no grounds for intervention. So why did National take drastic action? – To cover up farmer crime, for their core constituency.
On top of consent breaches – seen and unseen – was the illegal voting. When conflicts of interest over water-use cost recovery were identified, on Canterbury Public Issues Forum, it ruffled feathers and set wheels in motion that saw four farmer-councillors barred from voting on such matters by the Auditor-General, late 2009. A few months later, imposed commissioners replaced democracy at Ecan – indefinitely – by National dictate.
Things learned from this exercise:
1. Pillage, plunder and cover-up is the Kiwi way. Whether iwi from iwi or pakeha from maori, going back thousands of years, all will rip off any (thing not nailed down). It is ‘human nature’ (not), that civilisation struggles to transcend with egalitarian justice, moral values and organised sharing (and these got stripped from ECan).
2. New Zealand politics – like any – are an expression of ‘1’ above: a filthy business, unworthy of gentle souls. Does this apply universally? Pretty much.
3. The biggest eye-opener is the dearth of political support for actually being honest. You would think exposing crooked privilege would be popular, at least amongst ‘representatives’. Not the case. They have proven all too ready to line up with National, one way or the other, to advance their standing in disguising irrigation sector crime. Politicians appeal to bent Kiwi nature quite openly:
– Labour‘s chime, that “the commissioners are doing a good job”, hides their angling to get more of the elected positions next time around – and the outright corruption of their role model, Cabinet doyen David Caygill, privately profiting from the extinguishing of Canterbury democracy. They just want more of this themselves, personally.
– Labour mimics, the Greens also took the position that it was better not to expose farm sector dishonesty – many being from there after all – and offered no solidarity for whistle-blowing. The Greens, like Labour, run an electoral escalator brand for careerists, who shed moral principle and manipulate outcomes to get on board.
– Would Kim Dotcom’s Internet Party be interested in contrasting legitimate political struggle against government corruption, with integrity and community values as benchmark standards? Not on your nelly. They are playing Key on his own terms, with Key’s own power stratagems and big business guile. No backing there.
– Which just leaves MANA, if not New Zealand First, who superficially fight abuse of corporate power. Within both there are good people, for principle and redress of social imbalance. But if flax-root battles and representation cannot rise with support to put them on the hustings, then the same material illness blights these parties too. And all could be lost.*
I have met quite a few New Zealand politicians. Not one has ever said to me “you did the right thing” exposing dishonest politicians; I am not one of them.
So is there an end to politics? There is at least one:
So that those who overestimate their ability and importance have a way to finally wise up.
There may also be an evolutionary end to politics. For that we can more than hope. And be ready to move on.
Save Our Water resonates, Cathedral Square, 1 May 2014
* “mood of exuberance and anticipation.. Internet Mana has one commodity the other parties on the left struggle to provide in convincing fashion to those at the bottom of the heap. That commodity is hope” – John Armstrong: A raw energy Dotcom’s millions could never buy, NZ Herald, 21 July 2014
Harre defends publishing of anti-Key campaign party video “The Internet-Mana Coalition is defending its decision to publish a video showing hundreds of students chanting expletives against the Prime Minister John Key”, Radio New Zealand, 8 August 2014
“The dirty start to the election campaign has hurt both major parties.. And the surprise mover is the Internet Mana party, now within striking distance of the 5% threshold.. the big mover is the Internet Mana party which has doubled in support to 4%.. At 4%, and assuming Hone Harawira hold his seat, Internet Mana could bring in five MPs, including John Minto and Annette Sykes. Internet Party leader Laila Harre says the party is ‘sensing a real mood for change'” – Dirty start to campaign hurts Labour, National – poll, ONE News, 17 August 2014
“Internet Mana — Four per cent up two points” in One News Colmar Brunton poll – National loses support in new polls, New Zealand Herald, 17 August 2014
The gargantuan waste, of Internet (traffic) Party intercession these elections, is that dirty politics of every kind are not tolerated by voters and something substantively different must be presented for winning their support. Hence NZ 1st longevity, a bolster to majority right. The true left has no home. (Viz Jesus.)
No one likes being on the losing side and few will do so willingly – no mortal can have any interest in it.
Done to by repeated earthquakes, storms and flood since 2010, threatened Christchurch home owners must avoid becoming political footballs in 2014, now. The silly season of public discourse is upon us, with the lack of real choice in general elections.
Already we have seen the pointless, predictable lurch between non-solutions twice: legal synthetic cannabis was made illegal with no means of transition for its victims; and our city council’s consultant’s report on its finances will next be matched by the Earthquake Minister’s – why didn’t the Mayor just save rate and tax payers this profligate expense? We already knew the parlous situation we are working through so why add to it by overpaying ‘experts’ just to state the obvious? For argument’s sake? As of today we’re being sold the pretend choice of who will be delivering tax cuts, from fake Beehive budget surplus, come September.
Descent into ‘he said, she said’ along National-Labour lines does not help struggling Christchurch and Canterbury one bit. With central and local government arguing over who must respond to the recent flood losses and realisations, affected communities must just get on with it.
Council’s Flooding Taskforce report is a good start in a concentrated timeframe, if only for highlighting what must follow it.[1] Immediate, simple steps are identified but mostly it’s the mapping that helps us.
District Plan change forecasts for 100-year sea level rise, in the range of climate change symptoms, were released updated in March. Already Christchurch is having to adapt to significant aqueous effects. This is our loud wake-up call.
Working against centralised solutions is the sheer scale of the problem. But now at least we can see it plain:
Christchurch Flooding Map 2014 – CCC Taskforce
Since the earthquakes, communities have pulled together to get through each crisis. Now moving forward means getting more organised.
The Christchurch City Council’s Flooding Taskforce was a good start but now needs breaking down into manageable chunks and catchments. Each particular area needs to initiate its own flood taskforce – Dudley Creek / Flockton, Lower Avon, Southshore, Sumner, Heathcote Valley, Woolston and Lower Heathcote, Upper Heathcote (or Heathcote-Opawaho as a very large whole), Lyttelton, Little River, Akaroa, Kaiapoi, etc. Invite the authorities to advise your local area taskforce, once it is set up. Start with your own stretch of street and look towards contributing to catchment management, in the long term.
Communities must take this initiative for a number of reasons: you are best placed to respond to the next natural event; central resources are inadequate and stretched far too thin; discuss and decide what remedies you collectively judge appropriate for your area – river dredging, bank widening and embankment, floor raising, section walling or buy-out, etc. – because this locally agreed message is what the authorities need to hear; gain detailed knowledge of street property effects together but protect the values and information – supply the authorities with accurate statistics only, through your own elected spokespeople; “information is power” – your power, it is said.
The severe limitation of Mayor Dalziel’s report, in summary: “The extreme rainfall event on 4/5 March 2014 was not regular flooding and requires longer term solutions. It was therefore considered outside the scope of the Taskforce.”[3] And no spend for Southshore.
Locally, get your picture and voice crystal clear. Then it can be expressed most usefully to the powers that be, for action.
In the meantime, if there’s flooding tomorrow and you need help dealing with it, call Council on 941-8999 or lodge a Service Request online.[4] But do start talking to your neighbours about urgent response today.[5]
Update 22 May 2014:
Flood victims told they need to resolve problems themselves (3′ 10″) RadioNZ Morning Report
“At the first of the Christchurch City Council’s community meetings to look at flooding issues, residents on the Banks Peninsula have been told it is up to them to solve their own problems.”[6]
History lesson 2014: One century ago, workers in developing industrial nations – especially poor migrants – very physically drove the economy and demanded a much greater stake in it, getting organised e.g. as The Wobblies in USA – the Industrial Workers of the World, or IWW. Militarist reaction was capital’s firm response, culminating in decimation of the international working class through World War One – WWI. Mechanisation had overcome humanity, in trench warfare and mired deadly slaughter on behalf of the rising industrialists: the forces of destruction started to match those of production, and overtook them thirty years later with the atomic bomb.
Updates:
After one week – Kim has gone up 100 tweets, 200 following and 2,000 followers approx; but Key is just 2,370, 2,445 & 107K still.
4 June 2014 – http://twitter.com/KimDotcom :
Tweets 8,744
Photos/Videos 1,583
Following 14.3K
Followers 365K [up 8,000]
versus http://twitter.com/johnkeypm :
Tweets 2,465
Photos/Videos 938
Following 2,440
Followers 110K [up 3,000]
“product that the state-run Bank of China dubbed Yuan You Bao, or Crude Oil Treasure.. branches posted ads on Wechat.. ‘Crude oil is cheaper than water’.. The physical settlement for the benchmark WTI takes place at Cushing, Oklahoma. When storage tanks there fill up, the price on the expiring contract can plunge and become disconnected from the global market. With demand evaporating, inventories at Cushing were soaring. In March and April, they climbed 60% to just under 60 million barrels, out of a total working capacity of 76 million – and analysts reckon much of the remaining space is already earmarked.. ‘The trading at settlement mechanism failed. It shows the fragility of the WTI market, which is not as big as people think’.. Prices in the U.S. physical market, set by reference to the WTI settlement, also plunged, with some refiners and pipeline companies posting prices to their suppliers as low as minus $54 a barrel.. The bank had a total position of about 1.4 million barrels of oil, or 1,400 contracts, according to a person familiar with the matter. It wound up having to pay about 400 million yuan ($56 million) to settle the contracts.. a new wave of selling that swept across oil markets. On Tuesday, the June WTI contract plunged by 68% to a low of just $6.50. And this time it was not limited to U.S. contracts: Brent futures also plunged, hitting a 20-year low of $15.98 on Wednesday, driving the price of Russian, Middle Eastern and West African oil that is priced relative to it to levels near zero.. ‘suspicion of market manipulation or a flawed new computer model’.. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.. exploring.. whether the storage capacity data posted by the U.S. Energy Information Administration accurately reflected the actual availability of space.. CME [Group Inc, which owns the oil-futures exchange] argues.. market working efficiently.. ‘We witnessed history’.. brokerage PVM. ‘For the sake of oil-market stability,” this “should not be allowed to happen again'” The 20 Minutes That Broke the U.S. Oil Market, Bloomberg, 25 April + Icahn Bought Cheap Oil in Monday’s Plummet to Historic Lows, 24 April Ref. Icahn Enterprises Wikipedia + What’s Next for Global Oil Prices?: The Industry May Shut Down , Bloomberg, 26 April 2020.
natural autonomy N/A 