“US crude oil futures collapsed below $0 on Monday for the first time in history, amid a coronavirus-induced supply glut, ending the day at a stunning minus $US37.63 a barrel as desperate traders paid to get rid of oil. Brent crude, the international benchmark, also slumped, but that contract was nowhere near as weak because more storage is available worldwide” – Reuters via ODT, 21 April 2020 – But “a record 160 million barrels is sitting in tankers around the world”, as storage is quickly running out. Little will be available beyond May, Al Jazeera reported just before this news. – see Reuters.[1] This expresses the classic crisis of over-production,[2] in which the impacts can only compound and intensify. We have 1918 and 1929 rolled into one.
Oil production “cuts will come too slowly to offset rising inventories, which hit 518.6 million barrels in the US last week, just 3 percent off an all-time record, the Energy Department said. ‘If storage continues to increase at the end of the day, which seems likely considering all these Saudi barrels knocking at the door, then we are going to get to maximum storage sometime in the not so distant future,’ said Bob Yawger, director of futures at Mizuho in New York.”
US oil storage January 2017 to April 2020 – Bloomberg
Two days after dip, medium-term WTI and Brent oil TradingEconomics.com ‘recovery’ graphs:
WTI year to 23 Apr 2020
Brent year to 23 Apr 2020
What will happen next?
It is easy to forecast another crude oil price collapse as April closes, to below $10 a barrel, trading through May to hold the $16 latest low line if possible when all the stream spare storage capacity fills up. Output cannot be curtailed by enough producers in time to stop this lengthy return to medium to long term base value lows.
The logic of the market is to settle in at single digit barrels for the duration, while the costliest North American production is demolished. Such is the damage to demand and employment now locked in by pandemic shut-down response and unleashed technological upgrades. This is the beginning of the third Great Depression. Problematic war in the Middle East is the only potential diversion of this course, and the slump’s most likely remedy – under traditional mechanisms.
We have entered a vastly different world, with a deadly pandemic unparalleled since 1918. So will we, the people, shape the new world coming? ‘Recovery must be inclusive for the social contract to survive’, the Inside Story panel concluded, in “Why did US oil prices hit negative territory?”, Al Jazeera, 22 April 2020. Also regard Earth Day: Coronavirus crisis offers big green opportunity and ask Is civil disobedience enough or do we need a climate revolution?, 23 April 2020. The young generation know their future is imperilled and precisely by what: aged infrastructure/maintainers.
Nothing is guaranteed, except that the level of comfort so many knew before Covid is now gone – Goldman: Don’t Expect U.S. Oil Prices To Recover Soon, OilPrice.com, 21 April 2020. So much of financial sector credit is based upon appreciating energy industry shares, almost ‘too big to fail’ but not quite. It is the critical modern resource, the lifeblood of industrial economy, the core carrier of growth: too little or too much energy cost, both inhibit prosperity. The long answer is we have to move on from utter dependency on fossil fuel burning.
Competing large national oil interests – North American, Russian, Middle East – are all pitched against each other, on a currently shrinking transport market with no recovery in near sight. Smaller producer countries – in Africa, Asia and South America – face at this time the same and thus proportionately larger challenges of internal cohesion – resulting from this loss of revenue, profit, reinvestment and jobs.
The March surge of Saudi oil has been shunned by the US administration so will divert to Europe and Asia, flooding the markets there, viz Rising calls to block Saudi crude shipments to US, Al Jazeera, 23 April 2020. China is stockpiling the cheapened flow as fast as it can, as the world’s biggest oil consumer.[3] Contrast to North America’s accelerating market chaos.[4]
“A slow recovery that keeps oil prices down below $20 would mean heightened risk of political instability throughout the oil-producing world. It would strain cooperation in OPEC because the members would not see the benefit of their cutbacks” – Crude carnage: ‘There’s pain everywhere’ says analyst, Al Jazeera, 22 April 2020.
It is essential to recreate trade as sustainable, now and for the future, with whole new food, energy and distribution dynamics and underpinnings. The health framework can then improve for everyone too.
The estimated 12 to 18 month recovery time expected while awaiting a globally available Covid19 vaccine is reinforced by this being the expected time to clear the mounting glut, to effect enough oil/shale well shut-in to start lifting values. A very slow and expensive process, especially in jobs.
This will be a protracted, increasingly painful slump; most like 1929’s. The stark choice of ways out of, it is high time to discuss.[5]
[1] “Stocks are likely to be growing by 10% per month… the entire supply chain is likely to be completely full within 2-4 months. … At the end of January [industry storage] was a mere 200 million barrels below the record high of 3.1 billion barrels – reported in July 2016, shortly after the end of the previous oil price slump. … As the petroleum market moves into massive surplus, storage has become the most scarce commodity in the industry.” – Global oil storage to fill rapidly as consumption plunges, Reuters, 28 March, & “The US Energy Information Administration last week reported a record 19.3 million-barrel crude stock build. There is currently a remaining 21 million barrels of storage available at the Cushing hub in Cushing, Oklahoma. But that will fill up to the brim by mid-to-late May, Rystad Energy predicts”, U.S. crude oil storage is filling rapidly, 18 April 2020.
“Goldman Sachs … estimates that the world has around 1 billion barrels of spare storage capacity, but much of that will never be accessed ‘as the velocity of the current shock will breach transportation networks’ … ‘With demand collapsing but supply rising after OPEC and non-affiliated Russia failed to reach a production cut agreement in early March, global inventories could reach their maximum capacity within weeks,’ analysts at Eurasia Group said … ‘Industry participants are saying it is virtually impossible to find conventional onshore tanks. Even if OPEC and other producers start restricting their output again soon, the supply overhang from the global lockdown is so big that storage capacity will likely hit its limit by midyear. Already, ports and refiners are turning away oil tankers. This will put even more downward pressure on prices and pose an existential threat to many companies,’ Eurasia Group said. Analysts at Energy Aspects expect the ongoing oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia will keep production elevated until the end of the year. This means the world will run out of crude storage capacity early in the third quarter of the year, they added, with product containment arriving earlier” Oil prices could soon turn negative as the world runs out of places to store crude, analysts warn, CNBC, 1 April 2020.
“Oil prices were already weighed down by oversupply going into 2020 … ‘Market prices are showing that oil is all but worthless now. It’s going to take a long time to draw down the huge supply overhang'” – Crash! US crude futures turn negative for first time in history, Al Jazeera, 21 April 2020.
“OPEC+ coalition… agreed to slash production by about 10 million barrels a day earlier this month, but the cuts won’t kick in until May. Even then, they won’t be enough to balance out the demand destruction from the virus in the short term, which could be as high as 30 million barrels a day… Inventories at the biggest U.S. storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, are at the highest since 2017 and are expected to rise further. The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute reported that nationwide crude stockpiles rose 13.2 million barrels last week… Meanwhile, Indian fuel tanks are now 95% full, according to officials at three state-owned refiners” – Brent nears a 21-year low under demand and storage pressure, WorldOil, 22 April 2020.
[3] “Rather than cutting back on imports, China pushed crude oil into storage tanks at almost double the rate in the first quarter of this year than it did in the same period in 2019 as the new coronavirus hit domestic consumption … Other major crude importing countries lack the ability to simply divert oil into storage on the scale that China can, meaning they will have to lower the amount of crude being imported. Even countries with large commercial and strategic storages, such as the United States, will find that the volume of crude available is so much that it will overwhelm available tank space within weeks, rather that months … by itself it’s nowhere near enough to compensate for the loss of an estimated 30 million bpd of global consumption” – China doubled crude oil storage inflows during coronavirus demand hit, Reuters, 20 April 2020.
[4] “an acute state of oversupply in North America … ‘This inflection will play out in a matter of weeks, not months, with the market likely forced to balance before June,’ Goldman analysts warned. In other words, the U.S. oil industry could lose several million barrels per day in the next few weeks in what Goldman analysts called a ‘violent rebalancing.'” The Worst Is Yet To Come For Oil Prices, OilPrice.com, 21 April + Oil Prices Hit $15 For The First Time In 21 Years 19 April + “Canada, Venezuela, Iraq, Brazil, Libya, Ecuador and even the U.S. are seeing forced shut-ins due to storage constraints, COVID-19 and low prices” A Massive Wave Of Shut-Ins Fails To Halt Oil Price Crash 21 April + $1 Oil: Saudi Arabia’s Attempt To Crush U.S. Shale 1 April + “fewest number of active rigs since January 2017.. EIA’s estimate is that the United States still produced 13 million barrels of oil per day on average this week, just 100,000 bpd off the all-time high” The Largest Rig Count Collapse In 5 Years 3 April + “only if the United States joins the cuts” Russia To Cut 1 Million Barrels Per Day, But Under One Condition + The World’s Biggest Oil Deal Can’t Save Crude Prices 6 April + Oil Prices Hit $1 Following A 90% Crash, 20 April + How Oil Prices Could Go To $100 + In Rare Development, Oil Majors Are Forced To Cut Output Under OPEC Deal viz British Petroleum-led project in Azerbaijan, 23 April + “According to Goldman Sachs, global oil storage could be completely full within the next three weeks, and another dramatic crash could follow” Oil Prices Crash 24% As Storage Fears Mount + “unprecedented situation in global energy markets has provided traditional producers with an opportunity to displace incumbents in primarily the U.S. The price war Saudi Arabia started after Russia refused to reduce output in early March has decimated budgets of energy-dependent countries and oil companies. Riyadh and Moscow are playing with fire.. Riyadh is also upping the ante in Asia where Aramco has cut prices by $3 to $5 per barrel, which is the second drastic cut in two months.. energy industry seems to be heading full speed towards a cliff, exporters in Russia and Saudi Arabia prefer to maintain their market share instead of saving the industry. Only time will tell where this strategy will lead to” Saudi Arabia And Russia Fight Bitter Market Share Battle As Oil Prices Collapse, 27 April + “UBS, a Swiss financial firm, sees oil prices rising by as much as 115 percent by the end of the year. ‘While the oil market is heavily oversupplied this quarter, we expect it to move toward balance next quarter and become under-supplied in 4Q this year as lockdown restrictions are eased and oil demand picks up,’ Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, explained. OPEC, which is preparing to roll out its joint plan to cut global oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day, is even more hopeful, predicting a recovery by the second half of the year. Mohamed Arkab, Energy Minister of OPEC’s rotating president Algeria, noted, ‘the global economy is not going to stay paralyzed,’ adding that he predicts the price of the Brent benchmark could reach $40 by the beginning of the third quarter” Are Oil Prices Heading Back Into Negative Territory? + “’this is a never-before-seen level of national economic calamity; history doesn’t get bigger than this’.. Most people, policy makers and economists are energy blind and cannot, therefore, fully grasp the gravity or the consequences of what is happening.. Oil production and prices are unlikely to regain late 2018 levels. Renewable sources will fall behind along with efforts to mitigate climate change. It’s Really Bad.. Gross domestic product (GDP) is proportional to oil consumption.. because oil is the economy. Every aspect of production and use of goods and services requires burning fossil energy. There are approximately 4.5 years of human labor in a barrel of oil. No other energy source comes close to that level of energy density.. Large segments of the U.S. oil industry will have to be nationalized before the year is over.. productivity multiplier will be essential if the U.S. economy is to avoid collapse or for it to recover if collapse is unavoidable.. foolish practice of draining America first since the beginning of tight oil production a decade ago.. The game is over for oil. We should place all of our attention on saving the economy.. a chance to simplify and to learn to be satisfied with no more than what we need. It is unlikely that we will have much choice” The Death Of U.S. Oil, 28 April + The World’s Largest Oil Fund Is Sitting On $725 Million In Unrealized Losses re United States Oil Fund, 29 April + Venezuela Oil Exports Climb As OPEC Agreement Kicks In, 4 May 2020.
[5] By the late 1920s in the United States, “the huge oversupply of crude totally disrupted the market and rational planning, thus creating sudden price collapses.” The October 1930 opening of the East Texas Black Giant, a well reservoir so vast it dwarfed everything previously known in America, caused the $1.85 per barrel price of 1926 – that had dropped to $1 by 1930 – to fall to 15, 6 or even 2 cents at times, by May 1931. – The Prize, Daniel Yergin, 1991, pp.223, 247.
[DRAFT #5 – more to be added.]
“Oil companies are some of the most important payers of dividends across financial market worldwide, providing vital income streams to pension funds and millions of smaller investors. ..fears about the ability of oil companies to maintain dividend payments beyond 2020 are unlikely to subside until a vaccine for Covid-19 is discovered” Oil prices on a slippery slope, Financial Times, 24 April 2020.
“There are about 3.2 billion barrels of crude oil already in global inventories, according to Orbital Insight, a record high. The majority of land-based oil storage is in the form of Floating Roof Tanks (FRT). Overall, Orbital Insight says the world’s FRT storage is at 55.6% capacity, so the firm sees about 2 billion more barrels of storage capacity available. Beyond FRT storage are alternatives, such as fixed roof tanks, salt caverns, or even more expensive floating storage like tankers at sea. Ursa said recent estimates put sea-based tanker storage at about 160 million barrels. Essentially, the lower price of oil drops, the more oil producers look to expensive types of storage capacity as viable. Storage capacity options have an inverse relationship to production methods, as more expensive methods of extracting oil become viable as the price rises. ‘There’s still places to put oil. It’s been diminished because volumes have increased because of the amount that’s been leased out. But they’re going to keep searching out for more and more tanks to fill,’ [Ursa Space Systems analyst Geoffrey] Craig said. ‘If this continues, there’s going to be another phase where you would have to have another shift down in price,’ Craig added. June contracts for WTI crude traded at $16.54 a barrel on Friday, down more than 9% this week. Brent crude traded at $21.22 a barrel, down more than 20% this week. Hall noted that the recent panicked sell-off was largely focused on storage capacity running out in Cushing, Oklahoma. He pointed out that storage facilities in West Texas are below 50% capacity, with Europe and the Middle East each at 60% capacity as well. ‘Throughout the rest of the U.S., in Canada and then across the rest of the world, there’s still a lot of capacity out there for storage,’ [Kayrros market strategist Ted] Hall said. ‘Tanks are relatively full and have been filling, but there’s still a lot of a lot of room to grow globally.’ So long as major production cuts don’t happen while capacity remains, the price of oil will remain tied significantly to how much storage is left. ‘Based on what’s gone on the past week, there’s certainly a chance that we’ll see more breakdowns based on really unique financial moments related to the financial contracts in crude,’ Hall added.” Oil prices could remain under pressure, according to satellite imagery analysis, CNBC, 24 April 2020.
“With a sizable contraction anticipated, the current consensus expectation is for a negative 4% reading. Economists at ING are more pessimistic, looking at the destruction in retail as they forecast a 6% dive in productivity. Retail activity outside of groceries has practically collapsed and manufacturing surveys have reported plummeting activity. Given this situation, we look for the economy to have contracted 6% annualised in Q1 with much worse to come in 2Q.” The Dow Is Eerily Calm – But Next Week Could Be Menacingly Volatile, CCN, 24 April 2020. “product that the state-run Bank of China dubbed Yuan You Bao, or Crude Oil Treasure.. branches posted ads on Wechat.. ‘Crude oil is cheaper than water’.. The physical settlement for the benchmark WTI takes place at Cushing, Oklahoma. When storage tanks there fill up, the price on the expiring contract can plunge and become disconnected from the global market. With demand evaporating, inventories at Cushing were soaring. In March and April, they climbed 60% to just under 60 million barrels, out of a total working capacity of 76 million – and analysts reckon much of the remaining space is already earmarked.. ‘The trading at settlement mechanism failed. It shows the fragility of the WTI market, which is not as big as people think’.. Prices in the U.S. physical market, set by reference to the WTI settlement, also plunged, with some refiners and pipeline companies posting prices to their suppliers as low as minus $54 a barrel.. The bank had a total position of about 1.4 million barrels of oil, or 1,400 contracts, according to a person familiar with the matter. It wound up having to pay about 400 million yuan ($56 million) to settle the contracts.. a new wave of selling that swept across oil markets. On Tuesday, the June WTI contract plunged by 68% to a low of just $6.50. And this time it was not limited to U.S. contracts: Brent futures also plunged, hitting a 20-year low of $15.98 on Wednesday, driving the price of Russian, Middle Eastern and West African oil that is priced relative to it to levels near zero.. ‘suspicion of market manipulation or a flawed new computer model’.. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.. exploring.. whether the storage capacity data posted by the U.S. Energy Information Administration accurately reflected the actual availability of space.. CME [Group Inc, which owns the oil-futures exchange] argues.. market working efficiently.. ‘We witnessed history’.. brokerage PVM. ‘For the sake of oil-market stability,” this “should not be allowed to happen again'” The 20 Minutes That Broke the U.S. Oil Market, Bloomberg, 25 April + Icahn Bought Cheap Oil in Monday’s Plummet to Historic Lows, 24 April Ref. Icahn Enterprises Wikipedia + What’s Next for Global Oil Prices?: The Industry May Shut Down , Bloomberg, 26 April 2020.
“The implosion of crude oil markets in the past week holds a mirror to the broader distress in the U.S. and global economy. Social distancing measures imposed on consumers and business shutdowns enforced to combat the spread of the coronavirus pandemic have led to a collapse in international trade and travel. Gasoline and jet fuel prices have sunk as a result leading to crude oil inventories rapidly filling the available storage space. The lockdowns have also led to a slump in business revenues and consumer spending, causing mass unemployment in the U.S. not seen since the 1930s, at least temporarily. The issue for business earnings, economic growth and stock market values is that the U.S. is more dependent on consumer spending than some other economies.. ‘It shows us that the reality of demand destruction in the economy is more dire than what other risk asset prices, particularly U.S. equity prices, reflect’.. The stock market may have shrugged off the oil slump though in part because the direct hit from low oil prices is limited for Wall Street. The overall share of the energy sector in U.S. equity and even in corporate bond markets is minimal, and many fund managers have steered clear of the industry due to the challenging economics of crude production and the growing adoption of more carbon-friendly investment approaches in the U.S. and abroad. Energy represents less than 3% of the overall S&P 500 index, and around 12% of the index for sub investment-grade corporate bonds.. ” Could the crude oil market bust spell trouble for high-flying U.S. stocks?, MarketWatch, 25 April.
“The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures expiring in May plunged 321%, to -$40.32 a barrel, the lowest level ever recorded” Oil plunges 321% into negative territory for the first time ever as demand evaporates, Markets Insider, 20 April 2020 – WTI:
Date, Closing Price, Open, Daily High, Daily Low
05/04/2020 20.39 19.11 21.42 18.05
05/01/2020 19.78 19.04 20.48 18.07
04/30/2020 18.84 15.64 19.44 15.45
04/29/2020 15.06 13.35 16.78 12.67
04/28/2020 12.34 12.96 13.69 10.07
04/27/2020 12.78 16.84 16.98 11.88
04/24/2020 16.94 16.78 17.97 15.64
04/23/2020 16.50 14.20 18.26 13.35
04/22/2020 13.78 16.18 10.26
04/21/2020 10.01 -14.00 13.86 -16.74
04/20/2020 -37.63 17.73 17.85 -40.32
04/17/2020 18.27 20.00 20.22 17.31 ‘There is no reason to be bailing out Middle Eastern overproduction’: Analysts break down how to prevent further oil price volatility, Markets Insider, 25 April 2020 – Brent:
Date, Closing Price, Open, Daily High, Daily Low
05/05/2020 30.97 28.10 32.06 27.77
05/04/2020 27.20 26.10 28.08 25.50
05/01/2020 26.44 26.95 27.88 25.76
04/30/2020 25.27 22.87 25.76 22.87
04/29/2020 22.54 20.66 23.88 20.53
04/29/2020 22.54 20.66 23.88 20.53
04/28/2020 20.46 19.90 21.29 18.73
04/27/2020 19.99 21.55 21.91 19.11
04/24/2020 21.44 21.93 22.70 20.50
04/23/2020 21.33 20.89 23.22 20.07
04/22/2020 20.37 20.23 22.45 15.98
04/21/2020 19.33 26.33 26.50 17.51
04/20/2020 25.57 28.05 28.25 25.37
“Brent crude oil is at its lowest level in 17 years.. The US exports roughly 4 million barrels of oil per day, but much of that outflow will fade as Saudi Arabia and Russia undercut US pricing. Mizuho [Securities]’s analysis pegs the US’s spare capacity at 273 million barrels and estimates the tanks could top out in as soon as four months.. negative prices could become a reality if the US can’t build new storage at the pace of its inventory buildup.. The oil-price war kicked off March 6, when Russia declined to lower production. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries had hoped to curb supply as the coronavirus outbreak pummeled oil demand around the world. Russia’s move prompted retaliation from Saudi Arabia in the form of massive price cuts, igniting a race to claw more market share” The oil market’s threats combine 9/11 with the financial crisis – and could turn prices negative, analyst says, Markets Insider, 18 March 2020.
“U.S. market history points to a final bottom in August” Stocks will revisit their coronavirus crash low, and here’s when to expect it, MarketWatch, 11 April 2020.
“We have clearly gone to full scale day-to-day market management crisis, and as we said when we first called for negative prices, the physical reality of oil is that it is difficult to handle, volatile, potentially polluting, and actually useless without a refinery. If you had a stinking barrel of oil in your backyard, would you pay someone $100/bbl to take it away? Yes, and you would probably be relieved you were not charged $300/bbl,” Oil could hit negative $100 per barrel next month, according to one analyst, Markets Insider, 22 April 2020.
“The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported last Wednesday that U.S. crude inventories rose 15 million barrels for the week ended April 17 to 518.6 million barrels. That marked a 13th straight weekly climb and followed a record weekly increase of 19.2 million barrels a week earlier.. January 2021 CLG21 contract trading near $29.37 on Monday or still well below the $54 per barrel levels of mid-February that already were viewed as a threat to the viability of some weaker players” Here’s why oil majors may struggle to find bargains in the shale patch, MarketWatch, 27 April 2020.
“The United States Oil Fund (USO) that was responsible for last Monday’s oil crash into negative territory is once again shaking up oil markets, and WTI is now down more than 21% on the day. The USO Fund’s administration, USCF, announced on Monday that it intends to sell off all of its WTI contracts for June delivery—that’s all its front-month contracts that the fund was designed to invest in. Instead, the fund will now focus on futures contracts that are further out. The USO’s breakdown will now be comprised of 30% in the July contract, 15% each in the August, September, October, and December contracts, and 10% in the June 2021 contract. The June 2020 contract fell $3.85 on Monday to $13.09 by 3:52 p.m. EDT. Meanwhile, the July contract is trading $5 higher, and the August contract $8 higher at $21.47. The last time the USO fund shook up the oil market was one week ago today, the last day before the May 2020 futures contract for WTI expired. What set the disastrous events in motion was traders wishing to exit their positions before the contract expired. The USO, which would be unable to accept delivery of physical barrels of oil, headed for the exit, but found few willing buyers. This time around, the USO fund is pulling out of all its near-term contracts over the course of the next few days, sending oil prices reeling once again. The shift away from front-month contracts will amount to dumping 20% of its $3.6 billion portfolio over the next few days, Financial Times reports, citing a regulatory filing by USO.” World’s Largest Oil Fund Is Once Again Crashing Crude Markets, OilPrice.com, 27 April 2020.
If the Labour Party is not elected to govern New Zealand today, it is because people want something different. ‘National light’ does not suffice. Those supporting National, or not supporting Labour, pay attention to ‘alternative facts’ and political spin. Bending the truth is significant about power, and Labour knows it. They have rebutted it, in the tax debate of September 2017, shining the torch away from their own record. Labour claimed much success, in the local elections of 2016, as evidence of a strong party ready to rise. From this they have gone on to pose as water-quality champions, by eliminating competition in that field. So let’s take a look at what they now propose to build upon in this area, veracity-wise.
Generation Zero rorting of polls in support of Labour-backed candidates is seen more and more every election, as economic crisis deepens, exemplified by the voter-defrauding chart produced here:
From GenZero’s http://www.localelections.nz/christchurch/environment-canterbury/ of 2016. – How is B+A=A higher than A+A=A, except as intentional lying? – ECan-paid contractor Pham then promoted candidate Pauling and split the vote for fourth place in Christchurch, allowing another already on the ECan payroll – Lowndes, zone committee chair – to secure it and become councillor. Lowndes broke election law by using an ECan logo on his campaign website, unrestrained. These were the Labour-backed candidates, professionally squeezing out grass-roots representation, slipping eyes past Labour’s high-pollution record and thoroughly foul conflicts of interest.
This was payback for 2007, when Save Our Water helped expose a Labour ECan councillor being paid to facilitate meetings for Central Plains Water, who then lost his seat. Ngai Tahu Iwi – intending corporate irrigator – lost its Labour seat at the same time (until National put it back, in May 2010).
The same kind of dodgy rort by the same group was seen three years earlier, when they rated the Labour-based mayoral candidate, Lianne Dalziel, higher for carbon-friendly policies despite these being practically identical to at least one other candidate at the time. This was to completely ignore (and hide) Dalziel’s role in Helen Clark’s Labour government, that had heavily developed dairying, irrigation and greenhouse gas emissions in Canterbury during its decade in power. Generation Zero are thus exposed as intellectual and methodological frauds, ingratiating to relative power. Generation Zero are thus, in effect, corruptly right-wing too – just like the ‘me first’ Labour significant cult of the leader.
Generation Zero – Christchurch mayoral candidate evaluations – October 2013
Dig into the Generation Zero fraud and what you find is, it is about attempting bigger fraud – that (consumer) transport emissions are ‘more important’ than industrial (agriculture, in New Zealand) emissions, that urban issues outweigh rural, that Auckland perspective will dominate the south. Of course Labour would want its apologists to say this, that (Auckland) city transport issues outweigh rural production – it is about shifting blame (and complete in-electability on this issue) off of Labour!
Generation Zero are understood and defined as a “public transport lobby group” by national news media (One News e.g.) out of Auckland influence – subordinating southern regional politics (of agricultural emissions reduction) to their own concern (urban transport planning). In 2017, new Labour then falsely took ownership of the water quality movement, with questionable policy proposals (tax water takes to fund river clean-up work, rather than transform the entire industry).
The ‘Generation Zero’ claim to be concerned for emissions reduction, to halt climate change, is belied by their actions. Totally. When they have the chance to stand against the National government, by endorsing the battle Save Our Water has brought to them since 2007, they walk away; they side with National’s decision to cut environmental democracy, that Save Our Water had represented for voters to Environment Canterbury (ECan). Instead, as the 2016 candidate rating chart shows, the Zeros back an ECan-paid consultant (staff) to replace public representation as somehow more suitable democratic voice – http://www.workingwaterstrust.org/who-are-we-.html director Pham. Professional resource-grabs – never public wishes – are what the Zeros are about. Their intervention is to eliminate emission-reduction proposals that Save Our Water has worked a decade for, from all decision debate. Generation Zero thus, by inter-dependency with reactionary Labour candidates, take climate action backwards!
Generation Fraud is what this is all really about: removing options and debate about resource conservation for the future generations, boiling everything down into the corporate one-or-two party choice; selling out the options of their own generation, by covering up Labour’s misuse of power, in reality. That is a offensively corrupt.
Right-wing frauds. If you are going to vote support for any of these people in September 2017, do so with your eyes wide open! The public elects representation on its own terms, not those of master manipulators.
Confirmed as divisive nonsense, through cover-ups by Labour Party adjuncts to corruptly nose them ahead in New Zealand elections, is that different generations of humans have separate material interests. Nothing could be more false. By fostering dishonesty, after their own style and career interests, New Zealand Labour does youth a massive disservice and so urgently needs to be exposed – to reduce the harm done by Labour influence immediately. Recruiting to their model corrupts and derails youth, against their own best interest, feeding the mental health crises. Over-emphasis on identity politics (anything for an extra vote) does this – distortion.
From this exposure of Labour deceit, political education can then progress, freed of the obfuscating market sleights imposed over decades by generations of corrupted Labour bureaucrats – for the sake of power.
The central, repetitive pitch of Labour leader Jacinda Adern in the TV1 main party leaders’ debate of 31-08-17, was that her generation lacked access to housing – given its inflated price relative to wages. While thin on detail over how they’d actual change this, and hiding the fact that years of Labour administration had only increased the disparity (from which multiple-home-owning Labour politicians always profit), housing security is an issue for every generation now. Vague dog-whistling, to gather attention for shifting power, is not an actual solution.
The destructive influence of Labour on youth wellbeing at community level has been further documented here:
The very worst of it is – beyond Labour’s corruption of aspiring youth to its evil gangster methods – is Labour corruption of local government staff in cementing its influence. They even go so far as having these staff falsify public records – community board minutes – to boost the optics of Labour effectiveness to the maximum level possible.
A Corrupt City Council, being CCC, is the shocking result: that the public can no longer trust its paid ‘servants’, under Labour instruction.
Labour in governance will do nothing except what enhances their power and status – one toxic, self-congratulating, self-promoting machine.
‘Dirty politics’ are not something different because they are Labour’s. A lot of warping effort, to disguise their record, for claiming agency over water quality standards. Theirs has been as great a contribution to pollution when in power, so they habitually lie to obscure this.
Substance before style, wins the day.
24.09.17 – The touted youthquake did not eventuate because, with opaque Labour self-interest, youth are neither silly nor blind: they knew they were being manipulated and not so many complied.
Jesinda at work? – source: Darrien Fenton facebook
Democracy, warts and all. Backwards is worse. Explore ways to improve it. Have the vision – what is the route to survival for all? DJTrump/KJIll are rolling out the opposite direction … Frightening. So, what is the all-inclusive, sustainable development solution? Find it. Sell it. Win hearts to progress. (100% support would be the miracle)
Systemic failure in New Zealand emergency response is confirmed by repeat avoidable tragedies in Christchurch, unmitigated disasters under National-led government. Full responsibility lies with them and with everyone who has been selfishly and ignorantly voting support for corrupt sheer incompetence in central and local government: a regional despoliation shared between greedy empire-builders of Beehive and town hall.
With an eye – they happily admitted at the time – only for increased irrigation water for dairy profits from Canterbury, John Key, Gerry Brownlee and Bill English – backed by Christchurch and Canterbury mayors – have completely dropped the ball in every aspect of good governance in the region, since they destroyed its democratically elected council in April 2010.
Since then, because of this, many people have been unnecessarily dying due to the fragmentation of effective civil defence that the central and district governments have collectively caused. That is abysmal and completely unacceptable performance. Heads must roll. Starting today. For public safety.
The lazy, corrupt, ignorant incompetence that characterises New Zealand government has to stop: it is deadly at fault. The same confused fire-cordon-and-response failings that cost lives in the levelled Canterbury Television building on 22-23 February 2011 re-appeared on 14 February 2017 in the Port Hills fires.[1] The failing is in leadership and co-ordination, not that of hands-on responders: a communication and collaboration failure in the back office, from the top down. It is a man-made sabotage of effective regional response that John Key et. al. never imagined was going to be needed or could bite them so very, very hard. Now it very much has. The pattern of functional decay is thoroughly exposed.
News media could stop deflecting attention away from National’s gross mis-leadership and culpable manslaughters in Canterbury. Or remain accessories. Stop promoting self-advancing, opportunist and incompetent mayors.
Ask how the CTV building fire cordon was managed in February 2011. Was it effective in Police hands, as prescribed by an emergency site that had fatality? Or were fire crews excessively stretched without backup, then investigated as blameworthy? Were the fire responders made scapegoats, then and in February 2017?
Ask especially what action council took to check building safety and to cordon off hazards after 4 September 2010. None was apparent as a loud sigh of relief led into an ill-fated Boxing Day Sale, to satisfy city retailers, instead. Criminal negligence and liability rests here and instead we see knighthood reported? Not good enough by far.
Without remedial action at the governance level, New Zealand’s coming grand disaster – the Alpine Fault movement and its follow-ons – will only be all the more lethally tragic. Proposals to centralise emergency response are to save who time instead of getting on an aeroplane? And what happens then when Wellington gets badly hit? No confidence, at all, as it is unearned yet.
Tweet summary: #Canterbury regional bungle #ECan #CDEM
National Party implicated in #CTV + #Sugarloaf avoidable deaths With districts
Action summary: What public safety requires most, without delay, is –
all communities developing skills and means to organise, represent and keep themselves safe,
National out of central government,
Labour out of local government
– monopolies are never, ever healthy or helpful.
Monday 13 February 2017
c4:30pm Fire broke out in Lansdowne Valley, Selwyn District, spreading rapidly.
c7pm Fire broke out on Marley’s Hill to the north, in the Christchurch City Council area.
Marley’s Hill fire as seen from the south, above the spreading Lansdowne fire, c9pm 13 Feb 2017, in warm west wind
Two fires on Christchurch’s Port Hills stretch fire crews, destroys house, force evacuations
“Fire Service spokeswoman Lyn Crosson.. said an area of 400 by 400 square metres was burning at Summit Rd near Marley’s Hill. At 10pm, Crosson said the fire was still burning uncontained and residents on Summit and Worsleys roads were being evacuated. ‘Crews are currently working to prevent it jumping Summit Rd,’ she said. ‘Summit Rd will remain closed for the night.'” http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/89372687/large-christchurch-scrub-fire-out-of-control-second-fire-now-burning
Tuesday 14 February 2017
Not enough was done from dawn, by far, while confused officials argued jurisdiction.
Evacuation set #1 of 3 was ignored – emergency not declared, despite it already spanning two populated districts in very dry weather.
Marley’s Hill on 14 Feb 2017, view from the north, Lansdowne smoke to the south, warm west wind continues
SDC-1. Tai Tapu/Port Hills fires – update 10.30am “Two fires are continuing to burn this morning in the Tai Tapu/Port Hills area – one in the vicinity of Early Valley Road/Lansdowne, and the other in the Marley Hill area near the Summit Road. The fires cover an area of around 700 hectares. Fire status The Early Valley Road fire started yesterday evening at around 6pm. It has since crossed Summit Road around the Kennedy’s Bush area and at some other points. It is principally being fought by air with support from ground crews. Today crews will focus on protecting structures and controlling the fire, and protecting Kennedy’s Bush. The Marley Hill fire started in a car park around 7pm last night and spread west along the Summit Road area overnight. Protection of structures and the Christchurch Adventure Park and are also a focus for fire fighting. Both fires are now being managed by one Emergency Operations Centre based at Selwyn District Council’s Rolleston Headquarters as well as on site control points… Around 24 properties were evacuated last night with evacuations remaining in place currently. Tai Tapu School was opened last night to receive evacuees but closed last night with all evacuees staying with friends and family except for one family who accommodation was arranged for. No further evacuations are anticipated to be needed currently. One house has been confirmed destroyed by the fire, with a structure destroyed and one other house slightly damaged. All affected structures are in the Lansdowne area” http://www.selwyn.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/216187/Port-Hills-fire-update-10.pdf
Below Marley Hill, by mid-afternoon 15.02.17, smokes billows phenomenally with new flames, wind had just turned dry-easterly
Two fires rage on the Port Hills as one enters the Christchurch Adventure Park “fire retardant had been air-dropped on the top station earlier in the day. Selwyn District Council principal rural fire officer Douglas Marshall said the fire was ‘crawling through the under-matter at the bottom of the trees’ at the top of the park, and that fire crews weren’t too concerned about it causing a problem at this stage. A nearby crew is monitoring the situation. Firefighters earlier said two huge blazes in Christchurch’s Port Hills were now contained, although the battle to put them out was continuing. … The Selwyn District Council said the Marley Hill fire appeared to be largely contained on the city side of Summit Rd by 3pm. … Operations have slowed down for the night. Marshall said there was one crew monitoring the Marley Hill fire and three watching the one at Early Valley overnight. He was expecting it to be a quiet night as there was not much wind. … Twenty-four homes had to be evacuated overnight, and a group of children were among those rescued on Monday after becoming stuck near one of the fires. Selwyn principal rural fire officer Douglas Marshall said 11 helicopters and nearly 120 firefighters were working to contain the fires on Tuesday, and could be needed for another two or three days. Three two-member firefighting crews from the New Zealand Army had also been dispatched to help. ‘The second fire … [at Marleys Hill] is working around the radio mast that’s up in that area. It’s currently working down a ridge it’s probably the top end of the [Christchurch] Adventure Park area,’ Marshall said. ‘It’s not contained. It’s still burning quite strong. … A Fire Service spokesman said the Summit Rd fire had spread across 1.5 kilometres. The flames were too aggressive to battle in the dark, so firefighters working overnight concentrated on trying to stop it spreading further” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89376043/Two-fires-rage-on-the-Port-Hills-as-one-enters-the-Christchurch-Adventure-Park
2.30pm Sugarloaf helicopter crash and pilot death. Flying halted temporarily, stakes raised greatly.
Helicopter pilot dies while fighting Christchurch wild fires “Douglas Marshall, principal rural fire authority officer at the Selwyn District Council, said the accident was a tragedy. ‘Firefighting is difficult and dangerous work … our thoughts are with the deceased [person’s] family at this time.’ He said it was possible a number of pilots involved in helping to douse flames would want to stand down following the accident, and authorities were respecting that decision. In a statement, Selwyn District Emergency Management said the Marley Hill fire remains contained, although ground crews are monitoring activity along the Summit Rd. The other fire at Early Valley is also contained, but there are some spots of fire burning downhill from the ridgeline above Governors Bay and Allandale. Helicopters will continue to operate until nightfall tonight and from first light tomorrow. The area of both fires combined as estimated at about 580ha.” http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11800525
SDC-2.Tai Tapu/Port Hills fires – update 3pm “The Marley Hill fire appears to be largely contained on the city side of the Summit Road. Parts of the Early Valley Road fire have crossed the Summit Road towards Governors Bay. Current activity across both fires is focused on efforts to protect structures and prevent the fire from spreading.” http://www.selwyn.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/216188/Port-Hills-fire-update-3pm-14-Feb.pdf SDC-3.Tai Tapu/Port Hills fires – update 6.30pm “The current situation with the fires are that the Marley Hill Fire remains contained, although ground crews are monitoring activity along the Summit Road. Significant effort put into the Early Valley fire today has resulted in it being effectively contained, although there are some spots of fire burning downhill from the ridgeline above Governors Bay and Allandale. The New Zealand Fire Service is undertaking active structure protection in this area. Helicopters will continue to operate until nightfall tonight and from first light tomorrow. No further structures have been lost beyond those reported earlier.” http://www.selwyn.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/216189/PORT-HILLS-FIRES-6pm-update-14-Feb.pdf
Wednesday 15 February 2017
Governors Bay evacuations overnight by Civil Defence; that fire contained, residents returned.
Evacuation #2 of 3 was ignored – emergency not declared.
Smoke then fire broke out in a big way in the Cashmere Valley and Port Hills south-west of Christchurch city.
Chaos had been unleashed which led to panic, mass evacuations, misinformation and terrible overnight fear.
Evacuation #3, widespread in panic and south-west Port Hills areas affected, was acted upon:
6pm A local emergency was declared jointly by the Selwyn and Christchurch mayors.
Port Hills Fires, Christchurch, Feb 15th 2017 – YouTube time-lapses, Dru Norriss
Port Hills fires: Live updates – extract
“1:00am Marley’s Hill fire escalates, as fire spreads downhill through the forest.. within 150m of Sign of the Kiwi
3:00am 700 Governors Bay and Allandale residents evacuated. Governors Bay School which is closed today
5:00am Fire seen close to the chair lift at the Christchurch Adventure Park
7:00am City council activates the Emergency Operations Centre to coordinate the welfare operation
8:00am Helicopters are filling up monsoon buckets in the Heathcote River, corner of Hoon Hay Valley Rd and Cashmere Rd
9:00am –We’ve broken its back’: Governors Bay chief fire officer Andrew Norris
9.09am Health warning over smoke
9.27am Helicopters are using water from ponds and dams on farms in the Lansdowne area to fill monsoon buckets to fight the Early Valley Rd fire. Two helicopters can be seen in the air above the fire and two others are refueling.
10.34am Conditions are fine and dry as firefighters continue to tackle fires on the Port Hills. MetService forecaster Cameron Coutts said winds were gentle, at about 17km/h, at the moment and had been blowing south west for some time. A north east change with 37km/h winds should hit the hills from about mid-afternoon, before dying down tonight
12:30pm Technicians are waiting to get access to transmitters that operate the city’s emergency services dispatch, including ambulance and police. Power was lost on Monday at the Marley Hill location and it is operating on batteries
1:56pm Power outages across the city
2:30pm: More fire service resources are being sent to the Christchurch Adventure Park, to assess if structures can be saved
3:00pm Victoria Park is being closed as thick smoke billows from the Christchurch Adventure Park
3:10pm Fire units are on their way to Worsleys Rd, Kennedy’s Bush, after reports houses are being threatened
3:15pm Fire crews are currently working to control a flare up in Worsleys Spur area in the vicinity of the Christchurch Adventure Park.
3:25pm Police are evacuating residents from homes on Worsleys Rd near Summit Rd. Three houses are under threat from the fire. A Cashmere resident described it as an ‘inferno’
3:31pm Helicopter resources are stretched and one is not available at the moment to drop water on the Christchurch Adventure Park
3:59pm Police have cordoned off Westmorland at Cashmere Rd and are urging people to prepare for an evacuation.
5:10pm Reports of residents being evacuated from the Cracroft area.
5:18pm Police have confirmed houses on Kennedys Bush Rd and its intersecting streets are being evacuated. Residents are heading to Pioneer Stadium
5:28pm Fire service has just issued a directive for all vehicles to get off Dyers Pass Rd
5:32pm Fire fighters say the blaze will ‘punch’ its way out of McVicars Plantation and hit the first corner of Dyers Pass Rd below the Sign of Kiwi before dark
6:00pm A command centre has been set up at the Sign of the Takahe
6:15pm The mayors of Christchurch and Selwyn have made a joint decision to declare states of emergency in the areas
6:22pm Fire fighters battling flames at the Christchurch Adventure Park only have about an hours worth of water left. Crews are scrambling to get more water to them
6:41pm There are unconfirmed reports that Pentre Tce, by the Sign of the Takahe, is being evacuated
6:50pm Cashmere Rd is now closed from Kaiwara St to Kennedys Bush Rd due to evacuations in Lower Cashmere, Cracroft, Westmorland and Kennedys Bush
9:39pm Fire fighters at the Sign of the Takahe cordon are telling residents above the landmark to leave their homes as the fire spreads, with reports it has moved into Victoria Park
9:44pm Canterbury Regional Controller Neville Reilly has been deployed to the Christchurch Civil Defence Emergency Operations Centre to head the overall response to the fires
9:55pm Authorities issue urgent evacuations: ‘Residents in the area from the Sign of the Takehe to Victoria Park should evacuate their homes immediately. Authorities are advising that the fire has crossed Dyers Pass Road into Victoria Park. Police and the Defence Force are evacuating properties in the area. We are also evacuating the south side of Cashmere Road to Kennedy’s Bush Road, and to Hoon Hay Valley Road'” http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/live-update-day/
SDC-4.Tai Tapu/Port Hills fires – update 10am “Overnight increased fire activity was reported around midnight in the area above Governors Bay. Multiple fire units were called in from around the region to assist in firefighting and protecting properties. At approximately 3am fire and police evacuated around 107 residents from the Allandale area near Governors Bay, due to the fire risk. The Christchurch City Council has activated an Emergency Operations Centre to coordinate the welfare operation which includes a welfare centre at the Governors Bay school.” http://www.selwyn.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0019/216190/Port-Hills-fires-update-10am-15-Feb.pdf SDC-5.States of Emergency-declared in Christchurch and Selwyn “The Mayors of Christchurch City and Selwyn District have made a joint decision to declare States of Emergency in their respective areas in relation to the Port Hills fires. The declaration follows the evacuation this afternoon of 200-300 residents as the fire shifted closer to residential properties. It is no longer just a significant rural fire on the boundary of the city. It is now a city issue with suburbs being evacuated. Christchurch Mayor Lianne Dalziel says a city response is also required to ensure the safety and welfare of residents… Selwyn District Mayor Sam Broughton says, ‘we acknowledge there has been a huge effort responding to the fire to date, however this declaration recognises the seriousness of the situation, and this will allow us to provide all the assistance necessary to respond to the unfolding situation. The district and the city must work together to manage the situation and address the different challenges the fire is creating in each area.'” http://www.selwyn.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/216191/States-of-Emergency-declared-CHCH-Selwyn-15-Feb.pdf SDC-6.Port Hills/ Tai Tapu fire update: Residents should be prepared to evacuate – update 7.15pm “The Marley Hill fire has spread extensively down Worsley Spur, causing extensive vegetation burning in the Christchurch Adventure Park. The fire is approaching the residential area of Westmoreland.” http://www.selwyn.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/216192/Port-Hills-fire-update-7.15pm-Wed-15-Feb.pdf
Homes destroyed, families evacuated as Christchurch fires spread “More than 1000 residents have fled their homes and at least eight properties have burned to the ground as a huge wild fire rages on in Christchurch. Terrified residents ran clutching precious belongings or bundled children into cars as the black smoke ballooned from the flames tearing through tinder dry scrub land. Several fires have now merged into one which is threatening dense residential housing. The blaze is estimated to have scorched more than 1850ha of land and is still growing. A state of emergency was declared in Christchurch and Selwyn, the Defence Force was deployed and health authorities issued warnings to vulnerable residents as black smoke drifted across the city. Civil Defence revised down the number of homes destroyed on Worsley Spur tonight to at least three after earlier issuing a statement saying 40 homes had been lost. A spokeswoman said the error was the result of misinformation being given to a rural fire officer and was revised following a ‘correction from the police on earlier information’. The incorrect figure was widely reported earlier tonight by media and made it into some copies of the morning Herald. Little information was available on how the error occurred but hard questions will no doubt be asked of authorities in the morning” http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11801058
State of Emergency declared “Christchurch Mayor Lianne Dalziel and Selwyn District Mayor Sam Broughton made a joint decision to declare the State of Emergency. It follows the evacuation of 200-300 residents as the fire shifted closer to residential properties in the south-west. Minister of Defence Gerry Brownlee has announced New Zealand Defence Force personnel have been asked to assist with fighting the fires. Ms Dalziel said a city response was also required to ensure the safety and welfare of residents. ‘Christchurch needs a multi-agency response given the seriousness of the situation. We need to be able to draw on all the resources possible to give our residents confidence in the ongoing response.’ Mr Broughton said: ‘We acknowledge there has been a huge effort responding to the fire to date, however this declaration recognises the seriousness of the situation, and this will allow us to provide all the assistance necessary to respond to the unfolding situation. The district and the city must work together to manage the situation and address the different challenges the fire is creating in each area.'” http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/state-of-emergency-declared-city/
Editorial: Why did it take so long to declare state of emergency? “The terrifying change on Wednesday afternoon, which saw the situation deteriorate rapidly, shows there can be no room for complacency or confusion among those in charge of dealing with the emergency… Civil Defence Minister Gerry Brownlee expressed frustration that a state of emergency was not declared earlier by the Selwyn District Council, the lead agency in fighting the fires, or the Christchurch City Council, within the boundaries of which much of the burning land is situated. The emergency was eventually declared on Wednesday evening when flames threatened city suburbs, then destroyed more houses and forced mass evacuations. It was obvious to anyone that the situation was getting worse not better, when the amount of smoke rising from the hills expanded enormously. Questions will now need to be asked whether the Selwyn Rural Fire Authority acted decisively enough and quickly enough, deploying all available resources. For instance, it seems that tankers, equipment and personnel had been on standby at Burnham Military Camp, but could not move, by law, while the army waited for a request from the civil authorities that was slow in coming. Criticism of emergency services at the height of a crisis is easy to make and often ill-advised. However, it is clear that there are lessons to be learned from this emergency, and the various authorities will need to take an honest and hard look at themselves when it is over… people deserve the best possible leadership, and bosses who will take timely and decisive action to make their task easier.” http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/opinion/89454212/Editorial-Why-did-it-take-so-long-to-declare-state-of-emergency Comment RT – “Yes, it was the neutralisation of regional government by district and central government in cahoots, that left hills residents so dangerously out on a limb. Without that unseemly plot, collaboration and resources could have been swung in, through ECan CDEM services, from first light on the Tuesday to stop the fires cold. Shameful top-level performances, yet again: so ready to blame front-line fire-fighters, as at the CTV building collapse. Beyond shame, a deregulating City and Beehive are culpable!”
South Christchurch Port Hills, on dark, 15 Feb 2017 – Sugarloaf, Victoria Park and Worsleys Spur all fire-involved, left to right
Thursday 16 February 2017
After lower Sugarloaf had flared it soon went dark, with Victoria Park more flame-free overnight. But a day of downgraded hazard was needed for assurance that the fire was burning out up there, while it burnt on more strongly in the Adventure Park valley below and with the western fire areas more at risk under prevailing easterly wind conditions. A day of extended, thus exaggerated, panic pending better official reports from the fire fronts that were slow in coming – very formal conservatism characterises response from start to finish. ‘Safety first’.
Port Hills fires: Live updates – extract
“12.59am The Port Hill fires have now merged into one, developing significantly during the afternoon and into this evening. At least three additional houses have been destroyed in the area of Worsleys Rd
2am Six people from Pentworth Pl in Westmorland have been evacuated and are sleeping over at Te Hapua, which has been opened for evacuated residents, along with Nga Hau e Wha Marae. It appears most people that have been evacuated have found their own accommodation. In addition to rural fire staff, a group of 86 made up of 50 New Zealand Police and 36 New Zealand Defence Force personnel are working overnight on the Port Hills Fire response. They are doing evacuations, joint patrols and reassuring people in the areas impacted by the fires
3.25am There are still some very active fire fronts up on the Port Hills, but not as many as there were prior to midnight. A large number of fire crews have been on the ground working hard to protect properties overnight. A drop in fire activity can also be attributed to a decrease in temperature and a rise in humidity. Helicopters are expected to start an aerial attack at first light. Approximately 400 households have been evacuated in the areas around Victoria Park/Dyers Pass Road, Worsleys Rd, Westmorland and Kennedys Bush
4.55am Police are now evacuating residents downhill of the Sign of the Takahe on Dyers Pass Rd as far as and including Kiteroa Pl and Pentre Tce. Residents will be contact directly by police who are in the area now knocking on doors. If you feel unsafe, you are advised to self-evacuate. Police have continued to express concerns about traffic and people in the area and directed all non-residents to stay away, keeping it clear for emergency services
6.06am More than 1000 residents have fled their homes and at least eight properties have burned to the ground as a huge wild fire rages on in Christchurch. Several fires have now merged into one which is threatening dense residential housing. The blaze is estimated to have scorched more than 1850ha of land and is still growing.
6.24am The latest report is the fire has spread to the harbour side of Sugar Loaf. Evacuations are continuing on the Port Hills with a total of 450 properties officially evacuated. Others have self-evacuated as the fire spread overnight
6.44am Helicopter crews are starting to rejoin firefighting efforts. Aerial teams could be seen leaving the Christchurch Airport area at daybreak on Thursday
6.46am Civil Defence Minister Gerry Brownlee will arrive in Christchurch on Thursday morning. He has been critical of how long it took for a State of Emergency to be declared and questioned why rural firefighters were in charge of a fire inside the city boundaries.
6.55am Around 126 homes remain without power due to the fire
7.30am Broadcast provider Kordia has activated its disaster recovery plan as the fire engulfs land around Sugar Loaf. It has activated its disaster recovery plan and is transporting spare equipment to Christchurch
7.52am Military help for Christchurch is on standby – but hasn’t yet been asked for. Lieutenant Colonel Rob Loftus said almost 40 Defence Force personnel are on the ground so far. The Defence Force has been helping out with evacuations. Civil Defense minister Gerry Brownlee said it is up to the Fire Service to ask for further help – he is concerned they’ll leave it too late, Newstalk ZB reports
9:22am The Civil Defence bunker at Parliament is being activated
11.19am The impact of the fires on people is starting to be felt. Canterbury Civil Defence Controller John Mackie said they received a report of five incidents from health services. He said health and welfare services are also turning their attention to the psycho-social impact of the fires
11:32am More fire appliances are being called to the Christchurch Adventure Park to help battle the fire
12:12pm Firefighters in the Christchurch Adventure Park have setup monitoring stations at the base of the chairlift and cafe as a contingency plan
12:15pm Flames 6 to 8 metres tall are threatening a house at Kennedys Bush. Two fire crews are on the way
12.17pm Fire crews on Worsleys Rd have lost water pressure and are attempting to get it back
12.45pm Prime Minister Bill English and Gerry Brownlee are in the air surveying the fire scene
4:29pm Firefighters are calling for more water tankers up Kennedys Bush Rd to assist fighting the fire. They have asked for 4WD vehicle specifically. Firefighters have noticed another flare up
7:24pm Cordons remain in place with police and Defence Force staff patrolling
10:09pm ‘While there are still areas burning out of control, the fire is contained within the 2075 hectare area.'” http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/live-update-day/
Mayors defend actions after Minister Brownlee criticism “The two mayors met with Brownlee today and afterward Dalziel defended the handling of the fire, saying she and Broughton had declared the state of emergency to ensure people took it seriously when told to evacuate rather than because of the need for more resources. ‘We did that together not because it was needed for any resources to be brought to bear but because it was to give people confidence that when the Police told them they were to evacuate, they were to evacuate: this is an emergency.’ She said there were already sufficient resources in place to fight the fire and the state of emergency was called within an hour and a half of the mayors being advised people were being evacuated” http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11802069
Friday 17 February 2017
Editorial: Lack of information on Port Hills fires excruciating “Some will say that when a crisis of this magnitude hits, people need to get on with dealing with it, rather than telling people what is going on. This is misguided. Reliable information is crucial in dangerous times – to calm public anxiety, to mobilise resources from within the community, to tell people to move when they need to, and to warn people to stay away at times. … Fear and hysteria are more likely when people are ill-informed. In Christchurch this week, the state of emergency was declared 48 hours after the fires started, after mass evacuations began and only after a serious escalation of the blazes which might have been foreseen in a worst-case-scenario risk assessment. Civil Defence guidelines state that states of emergency should be declared ‘early rather than late’ – advice which seems to have been ignored in this case. No-one can doubt the bravery and dedication of those on the front lines, but there seems to have been blocked lines of communication at the strategic level. Maybe part of the problem is that New Zealand, a country of just 4.5 million people, has multiple layers of authorities and agencies with sometimes conflicting roles. The fires have burned across the boundaries of Christchurch City and Selwyn District, which is why the state of emergency was declared jointly by mayors Lianne Dalziel and Sam Broughton. How long did it take them to co-ordinate that decision? Could a single authority have done it more quickly? Brownlee had the power to declare an emergency himself, as did the wider-area Civil Defence Emergency Management Group, but they did not do so. The Selwyn Rural Fire Authority was the lead agency in fighting the fires, which seemed incongruous once houses in Christchurch city suburbs began to burn. There has to be a swifter and simpler way of dealing with emergencies, and in letting people know how to react. That needs to be one of the lessons learned from these fires.” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/89503846/editorial-lack-of-information-on-port-hills-fires-excrutiating
Port Hills fire: ‘Impact is the biggest in NZ history’ “The fire broke out on Monday night and was at it’s peak on Wednesday afternoon when two huge columns of smoke started to build, intensifying the flames and pushing crews to their limit. ‘A lot of people are asking why we weren’t putting water on it while it was burning away,’ said Rural Fire sector boss Phil Crutchley. ‘We were looking at 100,000 kilowatts of temperature per square metre – any water we put on that just evaporated. We just pulled back, it was just too dangerous. There was nothing we could do that would have stopped that.’ As a result, homes were lost and other properties damaged – but he made no apology. The columns had the power of two atomic bombs behind them and there was nothing on earth that could have been done to take the guts out of them.” http://www.star.kiwi/2017/02/port-hills-fire-impact-is-the-biggest-in-nz-history/
Beginning of Port Hills fire: How McCarthy Contractors responded when they first saw smoke “Christchurch Mayor Lianne Dalziel and Selwyn Mayor Sam Broughton conceded there were communication problems between the different fire organisations in Canterbury, and declaring a state of emergency took too long.” http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11802653
Firefighters were sent home early from Christchurch fire response, union says “New Zealand Professional Firefighters Union Secretary Derek Best has called for an independent inquiry. He said firefighters were sent home for 90 minutes at nightfall on Monday after they had contained but not extinguished the fire. Just an hour and a half later they were called back to the scene, but it was too late. … an inquiry was needed not just into the fire services but into the entire disaster response. ‘Really the same issues from the Christchurch earthquake are still present.’ … Early Valley Rd homeowner Ken McKenzie believed … ‘If action had been taken quicker and we’d got more resources to the site … it should have been able to be stopped before it headed towards town. ‘If they got helicopters and bulldozers in, it could have been stopped. The issue I have is pretty much the organisation, the level above – there’s something drastically wrong.'” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89546268/firefighters-were-sent-home-early-from-christchurch-fire-response-union-says
Analysis: What could have been done to stop the Port Hills blaze? “Canterbury Civil Defence controller John Mackie says officials were ‘just going by the book’ when leaving the initial response to the fires to Selwyn’s rural fire team, rather than Christchurch officials. ‘That’s prescribed in the act… the responsibility for the rural fire lies on the authority in whose area it starts – even though it may cross a boundary, that jurisdiction doesn’t change.’ Mackie says Canterbury’s Civil Defence group set up an emergency operations centre early on Wednesday morning, as Governors Bay came under threat, and made the case for a state of emergency when evacuations started to increase later that afternoon. Christchurch Mayor Lianne Dalziel denies officials were too slow to declare a state of emergency, saying work on the declaration began ‘from the moment we were advised that people were being evacuated from their houses’. There was no issue of firefighters lacking in numbers, Mackie says – it was simply that they felt they had the fire under control, before the weather began to conspire against them. ‘The rural fire officers were saying that they had ample resources available: it was only when [there was an] escalation of the number of people being evacuated, and the [increased] risk to urban residents, that was the main reason for the declaration.’ But couldn’t there have been more helicopters with monsoon buckets in the air, or firefighters on the ground? Not according to Selwyn Mayor Sam Broughton, who says there are more choppers available than there is room for them. ‘We’re at saturation point in the sky – there’s not another helicopter that could fit in the space safely.’ … Labour Port Hills MP Ruth Dyson says lessons from the response to the fire can wait until after it is extinguished for good.” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/89466598/analysis-what-could-have-been-done-to-stop-the-port-hills-blaze
Mike Hosking critiques Civil Defence response, Seven Sharp 17 Feb 2017
In disasters, scale overwhelms sensibility. Reporting can far from keep pace. So many moving parts and uncertainties are involved that synchronisation is not possible. Responders are overwhelmed, trying to face down the unleashed hazard. Every scrap of resource is needed. This can include many, many volunteers. These are ground factors that will never be fully known, understood or controlled at a distance.
Hosking and Brownlee’s wish for centralised civil defence would be to put many more people in much greater harms way, without the ability to confront and respond to their own challenges immediately, directly and collectively, on the ground they discover and face. That is why what the mis-leaders want hasn’t been the case.
The regional system of response escalation simply needs to be understood, supported and made to work. This starts with identifying and removing the particular empowered obstacles to regional civil defence who oppose and inhibit it, to great public detriment. Look to the statements and behaviour of all the local mayors we’ve had especially. City has consistently undermined region, so far. Unacceptable.
Saturday 18 February 2017
Christchurch City Council and Civil Defence held a first large meeting with evacuated residents, in Spreydon’s South-West Baptist Church gymnasium on the Saturday morning ending a fiery week. Attendees were mostly from Kennedy’s Bush and very distressed. Easterly winds still held their homes most at risk, that they hadn’t really understood until this point. Recently-buried asbestos on private land was of great concern and news to most residents too; ECan fronted to say this had been approved. Every evacuated area was represented at the meeting where information flow was roundly criticised and a single online up-to-date source demanded; also, hourly email updates from council on what was happening. These started around mid-day the next day, semi-hourly. Collated: https://ccc.govt.nz/the-council/newsline/show/1406
Council’s primary goal out of this meeting was to break it down into more manageable, evacuated street by street meetings (which took place the following Thursday, 23 Feb). Next to the fire, residents were being hosed down now. They were understandably angered by inept emergency response leading to property damage, disruption and loss. After 90 minutes many were were walking out though and an outside corridor large informal meet-up ensued. The city mayor wanted to join it as the back of the gym audience hadn’t been connecting with the front, unheard due to poor microphone sharing and crowd engagement. Dalziel was peremptorily reminded by those still seated though, “We’re the ones paying attention!” and had to continue on-stage for a later closing.
Canterbury Medical Officer of Health, Alistair Humphreys addresses fire evacuees, 18 Feb 2017
NZ Fire Service, Rural Fire and Civil Defence etc reps answer fire evacuee questions, 18 Feb 2017
John Key’s government had sacked the wrong council, for private profit, early 2010. A regional response would have been more powerful, sooner, with likely much better results than this very obvious fire response debacle.
Communications and cordons heavily criticised at Port Hills meeting “Dalziel promised that the council would review the response and do better in the future. The meeting came a day after the professional firefighters union told media they could have extinguished the fire on Monday, had they not been sent home for 90 minutes.” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89559332/communications-and-cordons-heavily-criticised-at-port-hills-meeting
While Christchurch burns, Wellington talks “‘bringing together rural, urban, volunteer and paid urban firefighters into one national organisation for the first time’. The new Fire and Emergency New Zealand (Fenz) will mean ‘a much better standard of service delivery, a much better deal for our rural and volunteer firefighters and a much better deal for New Zealanders’ … The response in Christchurch suggested an uncoordinated system. Who should have called a state of emergency and when, exactly? Why, Brownlee asked, were the rural fire services leading things? ‘I’m perplexed as to why you’ve got the Selwyn District or rural firefighters running things inside Christchurch City Council district boundaries’ … The updated law, after advice from firefighters, will clarify that letting a fire burn can be a valid response to a fire. … only NZ First was opposed to moving this legislation on to the next phase. … Two reports from Australia have convinced him [Clayton Mitchell] that mergers of urban and rural services favour the urban culture at the expense of rural. Do we risk driving the rural volunteers away?” [emphasis added] http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/89488611/while-christchurch-burns-wellington-talks
Mike Yardley: Response to Christchurch fires from officials ‘rudderless’ “as the past seven days have unfolded, a multitude of alarm bells have been rightly rung about the cack-handed response and somewhat rudderless leadership from officialdom. The acting Civil Defence Minister, Gerry Brownlee, was far from alone in feeling ‘perplexed’ at the belated nature of the state of civil emergency being declared. Social media lit up on Wednesday afternoon, as the inferno raging across the Port Hills seemingly galloped out of control. Hundreds of residents vented their increasing dismay and disbelief at the apparent failure of the Selwyn and Christchurch mayors to get to grips with the enormity of the ever-billowing threat. Individuals were pleading with Mayor Dalziel and senior city councillors, via their Facebook pages, to urgently declare a state of emergency. It took a further two hours after Westmorland was suddenly evacuated at 4pm, before the declaration was issued. Some hillside residents had packed and were ready to self-evacuate at 1pm. They could see the situation gravely deteriorating, first-hand.” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89612043/mike-yardley-response-to-christchurch-fires-from-officials-rudderless
– Yardley’s anti-ECan positioning has long blinded him to insight into defective regional response. Use what we have, don’t hinder it! Yardley’s wanting “declaration issued much earlier in the afternoon” is a joke. First thing Tuesday was the right time, the only time to have hit the fires from the air with everything possible and cauterise the threat. A declaration then would have been entirely reasonable, given the extreme dry hills risk at this time and that fire spanned two district boundaries – the ECan CDEM action trigger, purportedly. Declaration early Tuesday and military resources were available as regional council options, but ECan naysayers like Mike and Gerry have it firmly in a sealed box, held captive and useless. At least Huntsbury remained safe. Not.
Port Hills fire – Update Tuesday 12:20pm: State of Emergency extended
“‘this remains a serious situation that requires a significant and coordinated multi-agency response,’ the Mayor said. ‘While the State of Emergency terminates tomorrow evening, we are mindful of the significance of 22 February to the Canterbury community and as a result we agreed it was appropriate to consider the status of the State of Emergency today.’ The extension automatically lasts for seven days, but can be terminated earlier. The Joint Committee will meet on Friday to consider the transition to recovery. That will be an appropriate time to reconsider the need for the State of Emergency to remain in place” https://ccc.govt.nz/the-council/newsline/show/1406
Christchurch Civil Defence
Port Hills Fire – Update #8 – 5.30pm
“Fire progress: The Fire Service is pleased to announce that good progress has been made in controlling the fire in the Worselys Road area. Patrols will continue in the area, but crews will no longer be actively working in the area unless called in for a flare up. Residents are asked to help by being vigilant and to DIAL 111 IMMEDIATELY IF THEY SEE ANY SIGN OF THE FIRE REIGNITING. ‘Our crews have made great progress and we’re pleased to be able to pull back from the Worsleys area, but we really need people to keep a watch on things for us,’ said Fire Service Liaison Officer Bruce Irvine. ‘The more eyes we have out there looking the better.’ Fire services are continuing operations in other areas affected by the fire.”
Christchurch Civil Defence
Port Hills Fire – Update #3 – 1pm
“Fire operations: Fire services advise that 90% of the fire perimeter area is now considered to be controlled. Controlled is defined as bare earth or blacked out ground for at least 10 metres.”
Residents Update:
Port Hills Fire – Update #4 – 1.30pm
“Free GP visits are being offered to people affected by the Port Hills fires, at the discretion of their General Practice team. This includes people who worked on or are still working on fire control and recovery operations. The offer period covers the 2 months from 13 February 2017, the day the fire started.”
Fire perimeter now fully contained and controlled “Fire authorities working on the Port Hills fire are now confident the fire is substantially under control and are withdrawing overnight patrols.” https://ccc.govt.nz/the-council/newsline/show/1406
Mayors’ war of words with Brownlee over Port Hills state of emergency “Mr Brownlee said the most accurate information about the fire on Wednesday came from the media – not officials. Those in charge of the fire response have ‘got to learn’ from this experience, Mr Brownlee said. ‘I was in Wellington, not Christchurch.’ Prime Minister Bill English also confirmed there will be a review of the Civil Defence response and the delay in declaring a state of emergency.” http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/mayors-war-of-words-with-brownlee-over-port-hills-state-of-emergency.html
Port Hills fire: 1000 people forced to evacuate “For the second time, James Frost has lost a home to disaster in Christchurch. He said he found out at 11pm on Wednesday that the fire had reached his evacuated home.. while most police officers were good, one of his flatmates was left in tears because of a police officer who ‘didn’t have the people skills to deal with the scenario'” http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/port-hills-blaze-evacuees-forced-to-leave-everything-behind.html
1. We all mean well, at least initially, and struggle to express this, struggling to exist with others.
2. As an intensely competitive species, with social context from the start, our struggle can employ critical thought, interactive dialogue and peaceful techniques, or default to violence (habituated from hunting meat).
3. We want and need to work together, the question is how.
4. Compassionate, affinity and spiritual emotions seek more than second place.
5. Agreement on anything is amongst our greatest challenges, words always fail us.
6. Religion emerged in human history to forge large-scale agreements, especially in law for peace.
7. Agreement, truth and belief are related within culture, that scientific method tests into known facts.
8. Belief and faith were culturally-sanctioned agreements pre-dating science and survive subjectively.
9. Religion was not only the law we had, before we developed secular, rights-based law.
10. Religion was also the science we had, before we developed science.
11. Religion was the medicine we had, before we developed medicine.
12. Religion was the politics we had, before we developed politics.
13. Religion was the arts form we had, before we re-liberated the arts.
14. Other forms of all these things existed before we developed religion.
15. Religion filled many gaps for many years, before we improved the knowledge and expertise.
16. Religion made systematic a compassionate choice for the earliest organised societies, for good.
17. Religion was the original statecraft, and as such is inapplicable and unavailable, locally today.
18. Hope for a better world that conforms with derived belief has many still clinging to religion.
19. The world and universe do not conform with belief, human or supernatural, being composed of discernible material facts, from the atom up (not from ‘heaven’ down – metaphysics are illusory).
20. The material world (in human form) makes belief possible, not the other way around – no super-human being made the world, to suit itself, or actually exists to ‘create’ belief.
21. The growth of religion has been primarily the growth of human unity of purpose, always needed, through common points of belief.
22. Religious study teaches us things about human unity that nothing else can, our major driver.
23. Religion is easily misunderstood, undervalued and dismissed, as a social fact, to our detriment.
24. Religion has always been exploited to justify evil killing, not killing evil, which needs to cease.
25. Our tribal nature explains most about religion and transcendence it can bring.
26. What makes a god real in one culture is the same for every god in every other culture.
27. Faith as a unifying mechanism merges many gods into one god, logically and historically.
28. From many gods (polytheism, superstitious causation theory) came one god (monotheism, politically unified superstitious causation, enabling unified-market economic prosperity).
29. Superstitious belief held science, markets and industrial transformation back, unsuccessfully in western Europe – until the Reformation (battles for diversity of belief).
30. Amongst the nastiest people you are ever likely to meet can be those professing a religious faith, when it comes to competitiveness on the material plane. Viz. global bloodshed: insincere.
[Fourth draft – more to come – thanks for visiting]
The 14 November early-morning debacle 2016, where false tsunami evacuation alerts panicked so many into a dark night after the Wairau 7.8-magnitude earthquake, was unacceptable waste and fear-mongering cry-wolf. Some had homes looted that public donations then had to compensate.[1] These Christchurch city alarms should not have been sounded for this event, two hours too late anyway. Many chose correctly to ignore them. What is going on? Blame government that does not seem to care or even know how to.
The fact is, government knew there was no tsunami risk from the first evaluation but still allowed the panic to waste massive time and resource energy:
“314
WEPA42 PHEB 140042
TIBPAC
TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
0042 UTC MON NOV 14 2016
THIS STATEMENT IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.
NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
INFORMATION.
* MAGNITUDE 6.8
* ORIGIN TIME 0034 UTC NOV 14 2016
* COORDINATES 42.7 SOUTH 173.4 EAST
* DEPTH 10 KM / 6 MILES
* LOCATION SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
EVALUATION
———-
* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 6.8 OCCURRED IN
SOUTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND AT 0034 UTC ON MONDAY NOVEMBER 14
2016.
* BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA… THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT
FROM THIS EARTHQUAKE.
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
——————-
* NO ACTION IS REQUIRED.
NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
————————————–
* THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED OR THE SITUATION CHANGES.
* AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV/EARTHQUAKES -ALL LOWER CASE-.
* FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV AND AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.
* COASTAL REGIONS OF HAWAII… AMERICAN SAMOA… GUAM… AND
CNMI SHOULD REFER TO PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES
SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE PLACES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.
* COASTAL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA… OREGON… WASHINGTON…
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD ONLY REFER TO U.S.
NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES THAT CAN BE FOUND
AT NTWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.
“If tsunami warning sirens sound, or you receive an official warning to evacuate, evacuate the coastal evacuation zones for your district.. You will have several hours to evacuate.. The most likely regional tsunami source for Pegasus Bay is the Hikurangi subduction zone fault, off the Wairarapa/Hawke’s Bay/East Coast coast.. A tsunami from this fault would likely take around 1-3 hours to reach Pegasus Bay. It is unlikely to be large here, but it may flood low lying areas around Sumner, the estuary and Lyttelton Harbour. Sea heights above sea level at the time here would probably be around 1-3 metres.. The chances of a local source tsunami being generated by an earthquake in Pegasus Bay are low and have not changed significantly as a result of the recent earthquakes. Scientists have discovered some earthquake faults on the sea floor in Pegasus Bay, but they appear to move very infrequently (once every few thousand or tens of thousands of years). They are not thought to be big enough, and therefore would not produce enough vertical (up and down) movement, to create a significant tsunami that would flood large amounts of land.. Tsunami sirens will be sounded for a distant source tsunami, where they are installed. If you hear the sirens, you must evacuate the tsunami evacuation zones for your district. You will have several hours to evacuate.” http://ecan.govt.nz/advice/emergencies-and-hazard/tsunami/pages/default.aspx http://ecan.govt.nz/publications/General/q-files-tsunamis-booklet.pdf from http://ecan.govt.nz/advice/emergencies-and-hazard/Pages/booklets-q-files.aspx
Clearly officials panicked at seeing tide levels drop suddenly on 14.11.16, without knowing this was because of shoreline up-thrust. These officials then panicked others, and members of the public into leaving their homes unnecessarily, most ignorant of the actual low risk. The wrongly-imprinted hazard image – of a massively destructive high wall of water coming instantly ashore (like the Boxing Day 2004 Aceh, Indonesia or the March 2011 Sendai, Japan tsunami) – DOES NOT APPLY HERE. All this confusion should come out with the promised investigation of the 14.11.16 response. We live in hope, that it will be both a timely and productive investigation.[2]
The public should take from all this the lesson, to learn what actual tsunami risk exists for their home area and take appropriate precautions. Prepare appropriately and do not be panicked about imagined large tsunami risk in Canterbury ever again.
The difference is, the Alpine Fault is our tectonic plate impact zone – strong enough to build very high mountains (transform fault) – and this is the direct opposite kind of tectonic plate impact to that capable of producing tsunami (subduction fault). FACT. Fear not large tsunami here. Please do share and enlighten further.
The Civil Defence earthquake-tsunami mantra, “Long or strong, get gone” is not argued with here as potentially life-saving general education. But Christchurch’s experience of the 14.11.16 Waiau quake was ‘moderately long but not strong’ so it was not valid cause for fearful running from local shores or for official alarm-sounding. The alarm was therefore a misguided political act: to satisfy public expectations (of an alarm) incorrectly set. Let us work together now to repair this widely cast misconception of risk and relevant response.
[2] Tweet: “MCDEM @NZcivildefence Nov 13 [UTC] People on the east coast (including the Chatham Islands) close to the epicentre can expect waves of 3-5 metres. Move to high ground #eqnz” Earthquake: Deaths, major damage after severe 7.5 quake hits Hanmer Springs, tsunami warning issued “One person died at a property at Mt Lyford, north of Christchurch. The low-lying seaside suburb of Sumner was deserted after residents evacuated, and schools closed for the day. Lyttelton tunnel has been closed until further notice. A New Brighton family who evacuated their home after the quake returned to find their house ransacked by burglars. Matt Mill said they family-of-four had left their home about 2am, after the tsunami risk was broadcast. They returned to their Bower Ave home about 6.30am to find their home damaged, not from the shaking, nor any tsunami, but by burglars who took advantage of a suburb empty of people. Mill said the burglars stole televisions, sports gear and distressingly, a transmitter for his daughter’s hearing aid. His work truck was also stolen. Linwood resident Alice Coats said the tsunami sirens have been going went off intermittently for a couple of hours. The quake felt like a long wave, Coats said. ‘So, we all knew it was a big one.’ As soon as the tsunami warning came in, it was a little more frightening, so she jumped into her car with her flatmate, and went to the airport. Coats said the vagueness of the Civil Defence warnings were frustrating. Tsunami sirens started sounding along Christchurch’s coastline at 2.14am. A significant amount of traffic moved away from New Brighton and other coastal suburbs towards central Christchurch and the Port Hills. Police and Civil Defence have closed the tunnel (State Highway 74), which links Christchurch with the seaside suburb of Lyttelton. The tunnel has been closed temporarily for checks following previous large earthquakes. In the CBD, hotels and occupied buildings were evacuated.” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86416268/Earthquake-Deaths-major-damage-after-severe-7-5-quake-hits-Hanmer-Springs-tsunami-warning-issued 14 November 2016 + Earthquake: Tsunamis hit, warnings downgraded “Several evacuation centres had been set up in the Waimakariri district, north of Christchurch. Welfare centres had been set up at the Woodend Community Centre, Rangiora Baptist Church, Oxford School Hall, and the Kaiapoi Rugby Club. Linwood College has been set up as a evacuation point for people who have left their home in Christchurch.. People living on low-lying ground within one kilometre of the Christchurch coastline had earlier been advised to evacuate inland or to higher ground as a precaution. Tsunami sirens activated at 2.14am in Christchurch’s coastal suburbs, more than an hour after the first tsunami warnings were issued by Civil Defence. The sirens, located from Brooklands to Taylors Mistake, were meant to sound for about 10 minutes to alert residents they could need to evacuate. A significant amount of traffic could be seen heading away from New Brighton and other coastal suburbs towards central Christchurch and the Port Hills. Early on Monday morning police were driving around the New Brighton area with flashing lights on” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86416653/cheviot-quake-tsunami-warnings-issued (oh-so-wrong?) MCDEM graphic:
Coastal Christchurch residents criticise delay in tsunami warning system “A delay activating tsunami warning sirens could have been life-threatening to those living in Christchurch beach suburbs, residents say. Some are demanding answers as to why sirens did not sound until about 2am, two hours after the magnitude-7.5 earthquake struck and an hour after the national civil defence website instructed coastal residents to move to higher ground immediately. ‘Something needs to be done,’ New Brighton resident Shanna Howden said. If there had been a large wave, Howden questioned whether people could have escaped in time. Heavy traffic and bad roads meant it took 45 minutes for them to get out of New Brighton. ‘There must be a way to put something in place to make it a smoother process,’ she said. Tsunami warnings come from the Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management (MCDEM) in Wellington but local authorities are responsible for civil defence emergency management in their own areas. MCDEM posted its first tsunami warning on its website at 1am. The warning was repeated at 1.30am and not lifted until 3.39am. In Christchurch, the tsunami sirens began at 2am and sounded well beyond dawn. However, messages sent by the ministry to the duty officer at the Christchurch City Council and the Canterbury civil defence emergency management group were less clear. Christchurch mayor Lianne Dalziel said she was more interested in learning from the experience than casting blame. ‘I don’t know what went wrong but it’s important we fix this.’ Canterbury civil defence emergency group controller Neville Reilly said the council’s duty officer had relied on the group’s advice. The group’s decision to wait a couple of hours before firing the sirens was done in consultation with a tsunami scientist but without the knowledge that MCDEM was already instructing evacuation on its website. ‘It would have been nice if there wasn’t the confusion coming from emails which were different from the website,’ he said. ‘The worst thing you want to do is cry wolf although safety is paramount. There’s no black and white.’ MCDEM was unable to respond on Monday.” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86439726/coastal-christchurch-residents-criticise-delay-in-tsunami-warning-system 14 November 2016
Christchurch Star https://issuu.com/the.star/docs/116322cs 17 November 2016 (censored?) Civil Defence overhaul ‘inevitable’ after tsunami warning confusion: Govt 17 November 2016 http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86441740/civil-defence-overhaul-inevitable-after-tsunami-warning-confusion-govt GNS: Tsunami caught us by surprisehttp://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318506/gns-tsunami-caught-us-by-surprise 20 November 2016 + Govt to push for tsumani text message systemhttp://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/318473/govt-to-push-for-tsumani-text-message-system Civil Defence’s earthquake response to be reviewedhttp://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318584/civil-defence’s-earthquake-response-to-be-reviewed 21 November 2016 Minister criticises GeoNet’s funding callhttp://www.radionz.co.nz/news/kaikoura-earthquake/318618/minister-criticises-geonet’s-funding-call 22 November 2016 Review of tsunami alerts likely after Kaikoura earthquake “All in all the response to the early morning Kaikoura earthquake seems to have been a bit of a shambles. Frightening for some and a non-event for others.. warning came out from National Civil Defence at 1.20am. Problems had hit the MCDEM website just after 1am with people advised to follow updates on their Facebook and Twitter instead.” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86742260/review-of-tsunami-alerts-likely-after-kaikoura-earthquake 24 November 2016 Comment:
“Straw Man – please decommission the Christchurch ones too. They caused unnecessary panic and are not even required. Many hours to evacuate in the case of a large tsunami, and not required for local quakes – there is no sub-duction zone off the ChCh coast. And yes, im aware of the 0.5m tsunami from the Kaikora EQ. It was not worth evacuating thousands of people. There was more risk of death or injury resulting from panicking drivers doing dumb things. Also, Pegasus bay does not funnel the swell into a confined space such as little pidgeon bay either. Start with a little education a[nd] ditch this ridiculous culture of fear that we have developed.”
9 December 2016 Huge earthquake hits off Solomons, sparks tsunami warning for New Zealand “The earthquake triggered possible tsunami threats across the Pacific. Waves between one metre and 3m were possible along some coasts of the Solomon Islands, with waves from 30cm to 1m possible in Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu, the US Pacific Tsunami Warning Center predicted. A tsunami watch for New Zealand had been issued, but since cancelled by Civil Defence” http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/87378899/Huge-earthquake-hits-off-Solomons-sparks-tsunami-warning-for-New-Zealand + Live: Huge earthquake strikes Solomon Islands http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/87379714/Live-Huge-earthquake-strikes-Solomon-Islands + Initial reports suggest ‘3000 people affected’ by earthquake off Solomon Islands “A tsunami watch for New Zealand had been issued, but since cancelled by Civil Defence. Civil Defence continued to advise people to stay out of the water owing to the threat of unusual currents, but said there was no threat to beaches and land. Earlier, Civil Defence controller Sarah Stewart-Black had told RNZ this was ‘not the same situation as after the Kaikoura earthquake’. The US Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said tsunami waves were forecast to be less than 30cm for New Zealand. They could take 4-5 hours to arrive, Civil Defence said. Waves between one metre and 3m were possible along some coasts of the Solomon Islands, with waves from 30cm to 1m possible in Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu, the US authority predicted” http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/87378899/81-magnitude-earthquake-hits-solomons–usgs + Magnitude 6.5 earthquake strikes off coast of Northern California “no tsunami warning, advisory or threat in effect following the earthquake” http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/87378423/Magnitude-6-5-earthquake-strikes-off-coast-of-Northern-California
21 December 2016 Coping with an increased risk of quakes “are we in the midst of a period of heightened risk?” asserts random dispersion, no pattern to recent large earthquakes: “The 7.8 Kaikoura quake was one of four earthquakes greater than Magnitude 7 in the last 7 years, and one of only five tremors of that magnitude or larger ever recorded in New Zealand. A similar period of increased activity was seen between 1929 and 1942 when New Zealand experienced a third of all earthquakes of magnitude 7 or larger recorded in the last 160 years..” http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/201828532/coping-with-an-increased-risk-of-quakes
9 January 2017 Tsunami evacuation spurs action “Civil Defence will be boosted in Little River and Birdlings Flat after residents living near the sea had nowhere to evacuate to after the 7.8 magnitude earthquake on November 14” http://www.star.kiwi/2017/01/tsunami-evacuation-spurs-action/
GNS Science head office, like most New Zealand government, resides in Wellington region. There, existential angst competes heavily with Auckland for economic weight and centre of gravity. So Wellington treats the South Island as a private back yard – to be seen, not heard, exploited for all it is worth and insistently ignored and mis-spoken for. ‘It is all about us’, believes the capital, almost always. This hard-to-dislodge perspective explains constant nonsense from official sources over the 14-Nov-2016 magnitude-7.8 earthquake, particularly where it actually took place (and what it did). You would think GNS could not read a map or never travelled a secondary highway, to have located this earthquake as “Culverden”. They have a convention of approximating, to name larger centres that people may have heard of, only. This generalising is unhelpful. Locating the historically-large earthquake accurately is key to understanding it and its implications.
This was a “Wairau” earthquake, as the epicentre map shows – so why aren’t the authorities saying that? Why has this earthquake become about “Wellington” and “Kaikoura” exceptionally? Yes, people have sadly died or become most isolated in the latter town, and have our condolences and full support through that, with buildings lost at both places. But this is governance by spin: intentional confusion to deflect risk – to benefit who, we may ask? Tsunami alarm and quake interpretation questions abound – what is really happening? Where is it happening? Public discourse to be urgently joined. Lives depend on getting this very public knowledge correct.
Journalists often muddy the water – Cheviot earthquake: Tracing the source of the 7.5 magnitude quake “It appeared to have been a complex earthquake, and scientists were looking into whether it ruptured two separate fault planes, or whether it could be considered just a single rupture. The epicentre of the quake was close to the Hope Fault. The Kaikoura area, where the Hope Fault went offshore, was strongly affected. Despite that, the pattern of events did not necessarily suggest a Hope Fault event, [GNS Science duty seismologist Dr Anna] Kaiser said. The Hope Fault was one of the major faults through Marlborough and North Canterbury that marked the boundary between the Pacific and Australian Plates. Those faults merged near Otira to form the Alpine Fault, which ran along the western edge of the Southern Alps. Looking back over hundreds of thousands of years, the Hope Fault was considered to have one of the highest slip rates among those faults. It was an important structure in accommodating plate movement in that part of the country, Kaiser said. ‘This earthquake occurred right along that line of very active deformation.’ The Marlborough fault system was a kind of transition zone between the Alpine Fault and the subduction interface between the tectonic plates under the North Island. ‘So far, it doesn’t look to be the Hope Fault, rather (and perhaps more concerning) it seems to have ruptured across the Hope Fault,’ USGS seismologist Professor Kevin Furlong said. ‘Most/many aftershocks extend to Cook Strait, implying that the rupture may have extended quite a bit to the north. One concern is whether this has involved any of the subduction plate boundary that starts up at Kaikoura and extends along the [east coast of the] North island. At a minimum, it may have changed the stress conditions on the main megathrust interface – we are exploring that possibility right now'” – deftly shifting the focus to Wellington. http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86416880/cheviot-earthquake-tracing-the-source-of-the-quake 14 November 2016
Research https://www.gns.cri.nz/Home/News-and-Events/Media-Releases/Rutherford-Award 11 November 2016
Naming the river floodplains involved is extremely important as these often follow fault lines, in north Canterbury and Marlborough especially – a crucial point for understanding the moving landscape: what is moving, why and when. The Wairau event aftershock trace mostly identifies the Hope Fault, joining directly as it does the massive offshore-Kaikoura Hikurangi Trough (to the Alpine Fault). It is ultimately movement in this huge connected structure that we see affecting land. Seismic force and aftershocks moving in the direction of Wellington should not be confused with the substantive event, but they have been, influential as they are.
The zoom out illustrates two things: the offshore trench-fault that runs through land north of Kaikoura as the Hope Fault; that aftershocks are now reaching and accumulating stress along this at the Alpine Fault to the west.
GNS add to confusion – M7.8 Kaikoura quake the biggest since the Dusky Sound jolt in 2009 – 15/11/2016 “Named the Kaikoura earthquake, scientists are describing it as a complex rupture sequence that produced ground-shaking that lasted for about two minutes and was felt throughout the country. It was centered east of Hanmer Springs at a depth of 15km” https://www.gns.cri.nz/Home/News-and-Events/Media-Releases/M7.8-Kaikoura-quake 14 November 2016 – are they afraid of naming Waiau (and Hope)?
The focus is kept upon effects in the Wellington area – Seismologists record 2 metre shift south of Marlborough “The largest aftershocks were close to the Hope Fault, the line running across the centre of the map. The earth moved two metres to the north in Marlborough during Monday morning’s major earthquake, according to data from GNS Science.. the ground moved horizontally 2 metres to the north and vertically down a metre”
New Zealand’s Tectonic Dragon Awakens “beneath its verdant carpet, New Zealand is still under active construction. It occupies one of the most complex geologic venues on the globe, at the messy boundary of two tectonic plates.. violent, episodic upheavals that shake the seemingly tranquil hills” http://www.newyorker.com/tech/elements/new-zealands-tectonic-dragon-awakens 15 November 2016
While At quake’s epicentre, residents of Waiau watch helicopters destined for elsewhere “Waiau, population 280, is slowly returning to normality following the 7.8-magnitude earthquake that struck five kilometres away.. The town’s water supply has been restored but a separate feed to all rural properties was badly damaged and still broken. [Hamish] Dobbie said the council was working “really hard” to assist farmers who were running low on stock water. He hoped to have the water flowing in about a week. It has been a bitter pill to swallow for the community already struggling through a drought – a disaster within a disaster. Farmers near Waiau waved desperately at helicopters headed for Kaikoura, hoping they would stop.. It was hard not to feel forgotten as helicopters headed for Kaikoura, considering that Waiau was at the centre of it all. ‘I feel Waiau was a bit left out,” [Brenda] Smith said. ‘Even when it was first reported it was so many [kilometres] from Culverden, so many [kilometres] from Hanmer. I get it, we’re all hurting and Kaikoura is isolated … but yeah.'” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86594300/waiau-farmers-face-weeks-wait-for-water + Civil Defence overhaul ‘inevitable’ after tsunami warning confusion: Govthttp://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86441740/civil-defence-overhaul-inevitable-after-tsunami-warning-confusion-govt + Mayor thanks those involved in evacuation efforthttps://ccc.govt.nz/the-council/newsline/show/1186 17 November 2016
“Scientists know a tide gauge at Kaikoura rose 90cm during Monday’s magnitude-7.8 earthquake, but that’s one of the few pieces of detailed data so far about how much the level of the coastline has risen. There is also information about land movement from a network of continuous GPS stations run by GeoNet and Linz showing a rise of around a metre at Cape Campbell, at the southern end of Clifford Bay. Data from the stations also show Cape Campbell moved horizontally northeast by 2-3 metres. ..Many anecdotal reports suggest a two-metre rise at the coast, and there’s even one report of a reef rising six metres” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86565581/finding-out-how-much-the-earth-moved-during-massive-earthquake 18 November 2016
Quake action formed Hanmer Springs but latest quake passed it by “The Hanmer Fault runs right through the township and is the noticeable rise you go up as you head north towards the pools. On the other side of the basin lies the Hope Fault, one of the major seismic features of the region which starts at the Alpine Fault near Inchbonnie on the West Coast and slices its way across North Canterbury before heading offshore just north of Kaikoura. It’s this eastern part of the Hope Fault that some scientists now believe could be at risk of rupturing if enough stress has been transferred on to it from Monday’s large quake.. GeoNet director Dr Ken Gledhill said the quake rupture took the path of least resistance northeastwards up the coast from close to Waiau where it began. ‘It’s kind of strange, it’s like the epicentre in this case is almost a meaningless concept.’ It’s where the action started but it must have started weakly and then slowly built up steam. So Hanmer just happened to be relatively close to where the epicentre, but not the real action, was. The real burst of energy that contributed to most of the magnitude was between Kaikoura and Cape Campbell. It raced up towards Cape Campbell and then it basically stopped.’ Fortunately, Cook Strait, with its offset faults, had acted like a barrier and halted the quake in its tracks, Gledhill said. It was the sudden deceleration which raised the coastal strip by up to 1 metre and shunted that part of the South Island 2m closer to Wellington, rather like a car braking sharply to a stop and the passengers being thrown suddenly up and forward. If you could create a big-enough map of the northern South Island and southern North Island you would be able to see how the islands have stretched, shrunk and otherwise changed shape since 12.02am on Monday. The quake moved Kaikoura about 1m further northeast and upwards 70 cm, and Hanmer Springs jumped east about 50 cm. Wellington and the Kapiti Coast are now 2 to 6cm further north, Christchurch and Banks Peninsula have shifted 2cm south and some parts of the West Coast are now 10cm closer to Canterbury than they were” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86554866/quake-action-formed-hanmer-springs-but-latest-quake-passed-it-by 18 November 2016
‘Startling’ rise of 5.5 metres in piece of coastline during Kaikoura earthquake confirms quake energy has spanned the Hope Fault – the Kekerengu Fault has just moved about 10 metres horizontally, or about half of its 20-25m known movement per 1,000 years. That much sudden, imminent movement is scarily awesome. Note the Hope Fault is near where shoreline rise has been the greatest, at 3-3.5 metres. http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/86703833/startling-rise-of-55-metres-in-piece-of-coastline-during-kaikoura-earthquake 21 November 2016
Greedy, short-sighted economic actors are multipliers of natural risk. Korean charter flights pulled post earthquake – “The tourism industry and government agencies were also deliberately calling it the ‘Kaikoura earthquake’ because referring to north Canterbury gave the impression that Christchurch had been affected, when it had not” http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/86604299/korean-charter-flights-pulled-post-earthquake 18 November 2016
We must remember, and anticipate, the main event.
And the Wellington earthquake – in the South Island – origins.
This 7.8 was exactly where I forecast and warned of, as next in the Canterbury earthquake sequence we are – if lucky, or god will it – living through.
21 November 2016
Morning, Nine to Noon on http://www.radionz.co.nz News, Dr Kelvin Berryman for GNS Science discusses 14.11.2016 mag-7.8 quake fault research results and questions at variance from USGS findings (no link readily available)
The best clear explanation, through animations, of how the 7.8-magnitude earthquake propagated and exactly which faults where did move the earth, though again generalising the start as “near Culverden”: Watching the M7.8 Kaikoura Quake Dominos Fall in Real Time
23 November 2016 The Future of New Zealand’s Coastlines
“The massive uplift after the 7.8 magnitude quake has changed Kaikoura’s coastline significantly. With a new reef forming as the land moved up, by as much as six metres along the fault plain. But do we know what the future of New Zealand’s coastline will look like? Just-published tectonic research gives some insight into what sea levels could be in the future. And the satellitle observations show parts of New Zealand, are sinking at faster rates than others, and will be subjected to higher levels of future sea level rise. Co-author of the research is Professor Tim Stern, of Victoria University’s School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences.” – RadioNZ Afternoons 231116
This USGS shake-intensity map locates: a) the Pacific plate and Australian plate tectonic boundary; b) Wairau River as central to the mag-7.8 EQ fault action – confirmed (therefore USGS have this epicentre listed wrongly?)
Synchronicity with Alpine Fault movement is precise – “at least three past large earthquakes had occurred in the last 1250 years. These initial results confirmed that the Kekerengu Fault was capable of producing large earthquakes frequently (on average, about every 300 or 400 hundred years)” – how long delayed is the M7.8 Waiau flow-on effect, to an Alpine M8-9, being the only question. As in weeks, months, years or decades? … Further large stress input is not needed. – Kekerengu Fault has a Word to its Geologistshttp://info.geonet.org.nz/display/quake/2016/11/28/Kekerengu+Fault+has+a+Word+to+its+Geologists
7 December 2016 Nine faults ruptured in Kaikoura quake “but the Hope Fault barely moved.. there could be three segments to the Hope Fault, which moved about 10cm at Half Moon Bay.. GNS was in the process of building a map of the faults” http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/319798/nine-faults-ruptured-in-kaikoura-quake 10 faults known to have ruptured in Kaikoura quake, more likely “The quake started with the rupture of the Humps Fault Zone, near Culverden, [Dr Nicola Litchfield, head of the GNS Science active landscapes department].. said. That seemed to have triggered the next fault along, which had triggered the next one and so on all the way to the Needles Fault – the offshore continuation of the Kekerengu Fault. ‘The movement in each of those [faults] was big enough it triggered the next to go in the same earthquake,’ she said. The faults that went must have been ready to go. The large Hope Fault hadn’t ruptured. “Basically it jumped over the Hope Fault and didn’t rupture that except for a tiny bit at the coast,” Litchfield said. ‘In this area there are a lot of faults. The thing is before this earthquake we didn’t think so many were going to rupture in one earthquake. I guess that’s the big surprise.’ It was unlikely the combination of faults in the Kaikoura earthquake would be repeated. The Kekerengu Fault went every 300-400 years. In contrast, it wasn’t known how often the faults at the south of the rupture zone went, but it was thought to be thousands, or tens of thousands of years between ruptures.” http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/87292211/10-faults-known-to-have-ruptured-in-kaikoura-quake-more-likely
9 December 2016 Central NZ tsunami risk may be higher due to undiscovered offshore faults “GNS Science geophysicist Dr William Power said the 14 November tremor provided an ‘interesting puzzle’ in terms of where the tsunami was generated.. the tsunami might have reached 4 metres in some areas of the Kaikoura coast. However, the fact the quake struck close to low tide and that the land was uplifted at the same time reduced the extent of inundation. ‘A better understanding of the fault movements offshore in the Kaikoura earthquake will help us better evaluate the tsunami risks in central New Zealand.'” http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/87301480/central-nz-tsunami-risk-may-be-higher-due-to-undiscovered-offshore-faults
Extreme heat detected beneath the Southern Alps “New Zealand scientists drilling into the Alpine Fault on the West Coast have found much higher temperatures than expected – which as well as being scientifically exciting could also be commercially very significant for New Zealand. They’ve drilled nearly 900 metres into the Alpine Fault at Whataroa – finding geothermal conditions comparable with Taupo, but there are no volcanoes in Westland. Kathryn Ryan talks to Victoria University’s John Townend” RNZ 18 May 2017 http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/201844259/extreme-heat-detected-beneath-the-southern-alps
Whataroa Valley research site at Alpine Fault – Victoria University supplied pic, May 2017
The New Zealand Labour Party just showed voting is not about democracy but their bureaucratic privilege, not about principle but only corporate power.
The 2016 local elections confirmed Labour corruption as the greatest non-natural hazard to New Zealand communities – the adjunct reflection of Tory corruption, bogus presentation of empty alternative. This truth makes them unelectable, ever again, and explains declining voter turnout and resident disengagement: Labour deviously monopolises community politics for any and all available wins to their spirit-crushing machine.
Communities will not find ways forward – out of increasing corporate control, unaffordable housing, loss of natural environment and growing natural hazards – except through electorally smashing the NZLP then starting over again in communities’ interests instead. 2017 is almost soon enough for this essential project.
Various fake lefts tell you otherwise, to try choosing Labour again to displace National, but let us look at facts.
Labour-rort government only gets worse the harder you look at it.
Another example here, where a campaigning Karolin Potter, Spreydon-Heathcote Community Board chair, demonstrates dishonest hypocrisy for People’s Choice at a Keep New Zealand Beautiful local clean-up event:
Addington Times October 2016 p1, Karolin Potter in bottom left picture in blue
Potter’s Labour-dominated board had withdrawn all support for KNZB in 2015, to spitefully and corruptly prevent one Board member from ever working with it. This officially appointed SHCB KNZB rep had to pay their own way to the national KNZB conference in Christchurch that year, with zero Board support. By comparison, Potter claimed an all-expenses, disability-enabled long weekend hotel trip to Waitangi, Bay of Islands, for the LGNZ conference in 2014 – a privilege of high office with Labour. The SHCB KNZB rep was the only SHCB member who attended every one of the SHCB 2013-2016 term meetings, working diligently.
The first things people need to know are:
a) How much ECan money has Working Waters Trust ever received – by date and amount?
b) What ECan staff are or have been a part of Working Waters Trust?
If there are material answers to these questions then electoral fraud has just been conducted by the NZ Labour Party. Because the director of Working Waters Trust, Lan Pham, has just been elected to ECan councillor on Labour’s behalf – perhaps using rate-payer resource. We need to know. Is this council staff or contractors determining public representation?! A shocking corporate turn of events.
Pham’s fraud is well-documented in “the People’s Choice” campaign statements, where ‘defending democracy’ was the last of their core policy trio: clean water, better public transport, “a democratic ECan”. Having had the opportunity to choose solidarity against National’s unwarranted deposing of the 2007-elected ECan council, to support one representative of that council in running again, Pham chose not to. Instead Pham took personal advantage of National’s coup. But not only that, Pham directed voters AWAY from solidarity with the elected ECan council representative, in crooked Labour team- and self-serving manner:
Pham’s call here, over which four ECan candidates voters should choose – to NOT support representation from the deposed ECan council – advantaged her Labour-backed team by splitting the vote such that all three People’s Choice candidates then gained election. And, it was highly illegal to have influenced voters in this way.
Pham’s electoral offence is described at left here, from ECan candidate handbook p.31.
Lan Pham is therefore a false democrat, undeserving of an elected public role, at the least for this published prejudice. Pham’s campaign action, on behalf of ‘the firm’, shows precisely why Environment Canterbury is so disliked and so distrusted by so many people. e.g. “Cattle in Christchurch river were on Canterbury regional council’s land”, 12 October 2016 – stuff.co.nz/environment/85202980/cattle-in-christchurch-river-were-on-canterbury-regional-councils-land – The many false democrats who have ‘liked’ this electoral offence is equally revealing.
Labour’s dirty tactics, in replacing community reps with council staff or contractors, is to achieve one thing only: corporate monopoly at local political level. Never to listen and share or to innovate, never to allow a community voice. Always to dictate. In the ECan case it is to dishonestly claim back leadership in clean-water activism where they had lost it, quite rightly, in 2007. Labour is fully responsible for irrigation and intensive farming development in Canterbury and its polluting effects. And they know it. Rotten fouls like this, like Lan Pham’s here, are futile attempts to recover the Labour reputation and to overtly cover their highly polluting tracks.
So how did the Labour ECan campaign appearances roll? Lan Pham never appeared, except by remote video, at any candidate forum: she wasn’t in the South Island until Ocober 1st. A swathe of scientific helpers, likers and supporters pushed Pham to online/media victory. This dragged the rest of her team forward, regardless of what little they knew or had to say. Cynthia Roberts decried the Canterbury Water Management Strategy work (of the previous elected council). Steve Lowndes repeated John Key’s lie, that the previous elected council was ‘quagmired with 7:7 drawn votes’ (there was only one 7:7 vote during the 2007-2010 ECan term and that was still a decision, for the status quo). Lowndes extended Labour’s election fraud by campaigning with the ECan corporate logo very prominently on his website (unless the ECan logo design copyright belongs to him?) …
Steve Lowndes ECan campaign screenshot, June to October 2016
The Press had picked the four 2016 ECan winners at the very outset of campaigning. Using a two-day ultimatum for comment to publish, here they cemented their gatekeeper choice in. The Press is yet to be honest and add what was sent to them on the third day: https://communityvoice.nz/2016/09/25/the-press-interview-23-9-16/
From this identified basis of bias, misrepresentation and outright lying, we can understand exactly what the minority local vote of 2016 represents. No one else, with an honest brain, believes in the local governance. Myth-makers rule. 38.29% of eligible voters had a say on ECan and 38.34% on the Christchurch City candidates.
Thus, having understood the Christchurch 2016 vote in detail – what it represents and what largely drove it – we know precisely what governs our day-to-day lives. We, the people, strongly need local ethical upgrade and the ability to contribute, for moving forward.
This week’s Youth Focus event saw PYLAT, Youth Voice Canterbury and Christchurch Youth Council combine, to engage and inform in the 2016 local elections.* Over two evenings, west and east Christchurch city council wards were all covered thoroughly, with candidate Q+As. Regional council and district health board candidates also had opportunity to introduce themselves, briefly. A city environs context was very much set. Mental health and entertainment activities for Christchurch youth were core concerns. Youth Focus was great! Thank you.
Cruize Erueti takes on the Labour establishment, Youth Focus 270916
On the second evening, a mayoral debate exposed the competence of the candidate range. Tubby Hansen did not appear, Lianne Dalziel and John Minto did. Public transport and river quality promises then tripped them up.
On the buses, Dalziel called upon Environment Canterbury Regional Council (ECan) and/or central Government to “give them back” to the Christchurch City Council (CCC), asserting they were both the same thing having equal power to deliver this. But is it a fact? Demonstrably wrong about the ECan partner, Dalziel claimed that after the elections a commissioner majority will hold sway there so the organisation was a write-off. Elected members will from October become the ECan majority, actually. So has this Mayor been listening or just wrapped up in her own acquired authority? Minto’s promise to make bus travel free, and to pay for it from cancelled government road projects, impossibly exceeds the mayoral role.
Youth Focus mayoral debate 270916 – pic by PYLAT
On Christchurch city rivers, Minto’s promise to clean them up and make them “swimmable” traps him in a rural debate over which, again, he can have little agency – of debatable point or achievable reality. This is empty pitching to the galleries. Enough.
The gem in this debate was Dalziel’s announced discovery from Hurunui District Council, that the youth council can become a standing committee of CCC, with all CCC committee chairs then taking a seat alongside them. It would raise the effect of the youth voice through direct access to the city council. A declared challenge was then how much the Christchurch Youth Council has been valuing its independence. So a trade-off is on offer in the incumbent mayor’s election policy.
Minto’s long experience as a high school teacher qualifies him with a well-tuned ear for where youth issues of the city are at, albeit having arrived here only last year.
The model of ‘youth community boards’, initiated in the city south and advocated by at least one community board candidate for the north next, factors in all this. Are they or will they be subordinate to the Christchurch Youth Council, as recognised by CCC? What democratic elected structure and scope is likely to pertain?
These sure are interesting times for youth politics in Christchurch city. Dynamic. Inspiring. Go well! Thanks again.
Youth Focus team members take a well-deserved bow, 270916
Open and independent, balanced and reasoning minds are required for good regional governance.
Heat over bad water is rising generally, around Havelock North’s current crisis. The larger water quantity, population and risk in Canterbury mean that every tool available to resolve the same challenge must be applied here – and this especially includes democracy. ‘Many eyes keep bugs shallower’, as the open-source software movement says. Let us all be enabled to act to preserve water quality, essentially.
Water users will defend their interests, the stronger the greater these are. Political interests step in taking sides, which muddies the water further.
Fish, fowl or four-legs? we may well ask – all are farmed from the natural resource.
The Environment Minister is correct identifying a, if not the, major contributor to faecal contamination of urban waterways – that city dwellers get blamed for but cannot change!
Fishers and fowlers maintain hunting stock at maximum possible limits. But more city dwellers want the very messy canada geese gone from river banks, boating infrastructure and estuary and cleaner local rivers.
Thus Fish and Game oppose game-bird culls and leave Christchurch with the crap: both green poos and water quality blame. So it does not wash at all for ‘environmentalists’ to side with farmers of the rivers and lakes (Fish and Game base) expediently, to make their case and too-easy-allies.
Now Fish and Game claim a place at the Environment Canterbury regulatory table for their farming interests too? Who is this helping really? One more example is enough.
The hazard-prone Opuha Dam in South Canterbury enabled much more dairy irrigation there – love it or hate it for its effects.
Fish and Game’s position is to support the dam, to steady the Opuha River flow for their trout. At this point the argument ends and I leave you to decide your own votes and whose interests you really want served in regional decision-making. Pick those with no interest materially different to your own: no conflict. Pick pure values.
Should it come as no surprise that state broadcast media sides with national government choosing winners in this debate? If we can have no trust in Radio New Zealand or The Press to avoid bias, what use are they to the public in greater emergency?
Water quality, real story-telling and this election are about one and the same thing: integrity.
For the only former Canterbury councillor running again in 2016 and therefore a referendum on central government’s treatment of Canterbury democracy and water equity, see CommunityVoice.nz
Quoting a certain prime minister for New Zealand journalism’s benefit, “Get some guts!”
It has been six long, troubled years since Canterbury lost regional democracy. This year it is being allowed back in partial form by central government. We must celebrate and utilise the consultative opportunity this change of course provides. Given the mounting challenges that Canterbury faces, it is at least worth asking, can democracy provide greater solutions? The answer is undoubtedly yes.
Ko Waimakariri te awa, Ka Pakihi Whakatekateka o Waitaha – the Waimakariri River, Canterbury
Government intervention at Environment Canterbury (ECan) in 2010 turned long-standing threat into action.
Post-Muldoon, post-SMP farming subsidy, Labour governments had forged rural recovery on an intensive dairy model, birthing export co-operative giant Fonterra as one pinnacle. Growth upon growth characterised an industry fast becoming the nation’s leader.
In Canterbury the most ‘fertile ground’ for dairy expansion was found, by tapping underground water and applying nitrogenous fertiliser to former dry-lands. But this massive growth spurt had natural limits – aquifers are finite and their increased depletion, combined with more fertiliser and waste run-off, began to degrade surface water. This the public noticed and said so loudly.
Could Labour keep Canterbury dairy growth going, against natural limits and growing public concern? ‘Yes’, said the Labour-led regional council, to Labour government pressure – with new water storage, irrigation schemes and environmental mitigations.
‘Get on with it quicker’ said an incoming National government from 2008, soon throwing the elected council out and replacing them with appointed commissioners.
Tangata whenua, the indigenous ‘people of the land’, rightly wanted more say and democracy was poorly delivering it. Appointments made with iwi / tribal corporate Ngai Tahu could start resolving this also.
The first remedy, in the return to regional democracy, will be ensuring representation belongs equally to tangata whenua. The primary challenge facing ECan, therefore, is how to structure a return to democratic representation that guarantees the appropriate kaitiaki / resource stewardship role of Ngai Tahu.
The next challenge being, is there enough water for all users wanting it? This is a matter of careful sharing, and in good governance.
The Canterbury Water Management Strategy (CWMS) was developed, and in 2009 launched, by an elected council collaborating with the region’s mayors. Commissioners have been rolling the CWMS out and founding its water Zone Implementation Committees and Plans (ZIPs). Keeping these Zone Committees viable is a function of good democracy – people need to believe and participate in ECan’s resource management plan as a whole.
It is hard to believe trouble greater than rising ‘water wars’ could displace these in Canterbury, but one did – devastating earthquakes.
Now we have seen the capacity for communities to collaborate and recover from deadly calamity, how do we optimise this capacity as a region? ECan co-ordinates local emergency responses and we need reminding and preparedness for what is forecast to come: the Alpine Fault poses a major threat every 330 years or so, the last rupture having been in 1717, around magnitude 8. Are we ready for ‘the big one’ here yet?
ECan’s technical capabilities are tested daily – a very large area to cover, containing some 70% of New Zealand’s freshwater and the nation’s second-biggest city, Otautahi Christchurch. Over half a million people live here which generates transport challenges. Without adequate staffing or accountable public representatives, resources can fall through the cracks and when they do it is scandalous: e.g. Environment Canterbury informs police, Serious Fraud Office of potential taxi fraud news today, story on RadioNZ with Checkpoint interview.
This echoes the finding Millions of litres of water illegally taken: Is ECan doing enough? in June – technically competent elected watch-dogs are needed to raise and maintain a higher level of vigilance. ‘Many eyes, shallower bugs’ is the credo of the open-source software movement and both central and local government need to learn from this international community, fast: the power of engaged communities to help solve the most ‘wicked problems’ on Earth.
For improvements to happen quicker in 2016, I have joined the local election campaign Community Voice .nz – Do join us, do speak – for a safer, more collaborative and prosperous region of Waitaha, Canterbury NZ!
Kia ora
Rik
Updates
A Hawke’s Bay water contamination crisis was erupting at the time of this post:
“Both Hawke’s Bay and Canterbury are among the driest and most drought-prone areas in New Zealand and both rely largely on aquifers for drinking water. Both have braided rivers too, although those in Hawke’s Bay are on a smaller scale than Canterbury.
A rush of irrigation over recent decades in Canterbury has led to significant environmental degradation, including serious contamination of some rural water supplies, loss of biodiversity and transformation of landscapes. Democracy has been damaged too, as development pressures led to the Government sacking the elected Environment Canterbury regional councillors and their replacement with appointed commissioners.
The commissioners promised to improve water quality. They have failed and water quality has continued to decline. Some rural water supplies, including Selwyn, Hinds and Hurunui, are contaminated with high levels of nitrogen and pathogens, leading to people becoming sick.
Canterbury now has the unenviable record of having the highest rate of campylobacter infections in the world, along with 17,000 notified cases of gastroenteritis a year and up to 34,000 cases of waterborne illness annually, according to Canterbury District Health Board figures.
Rates of animal sourced disease such as campylobacter are higher in areas of Canterbury with more intensive animal farming. A Canterbury District Health Board commissioned assessment of the proposed Central Plains Water Scheme found potential health risks to Cantabrians outweighed the probable financial benefits to a few people. Hawke’s Bay should not make the same mistakes as Canterbury. It needs development, particularly in agriculture, that is sustainable and protects water quality and the other natural treasures that contribute so much to the region’s quality of life.”
– Amelia Geary: We want to be able to swim in our rivers, NZ Herald, 31 August 2016
“product that the state-run Bank of China dubbed Yuan You Bao, or Crude Oil Treasure.. branches posted ads on Wechat.. ‘Crude oil is cheaper than water’.. The physical settlement for the benchmark WTI takes place at Cushing, Oklahoma. When storage tanks there fill up, the price on the expiring contract can plunge and become disconnected from the global market. With demand evaporating, inventories at Cushing were soaring. In March and April, they climbed 60% to just under 60 million barrels, out of a total working capacity of 76 million – and analysts reckon much of the remaining space is already earmarked.. ‘The trading at settlement mechanism failed. It shows the fragility of the WTI market, which is not as big as people think’.. Prices in the U.S. physical market, set by reference to the WTI settlement, also plunged, with some refiners and pipeline companies posting prices to their suppliers as low as minus $54 a barrel.. The bank had a total position of about 1.4 million barrels of oil, or 1,400 contracts, according to a person familiar with the matter. It wound up having to pay about 400 million yuan ($56 million) to settle the contracts.. a new wave of selling that swept across oil markets. On Tuesday, the June WTI contract plunged by 68% to a low of just $6.50. And this time it was not limited to U.S. contracts: Brent futures also plunged, hitting a 20-year low of $15.98 on Wednesday, driving the price of Russian, Middle Eastern and West African oil that is priced relative to it to levels near zero.. ‘suspicion of market manipulation or a flawed new computer model’.. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.. exploring.. whether the storage capacity data posted by the U.S. Energy Information Administration accurately reflected the actual availability of space.. CME [Group Inc, which owns the oil-futures exchange] argues.. market working efficiently.. ‘We witnessed history’.. brokerage PVM. ‘For the sake of oil-market stability,” this “should not be allowed to happen again'” The 20 Minutes That Broke the U.S. Oil Market, Bloomberg, 25 April + Icahn Bought Cheap Oil in Monday’s Plummet to Historic Lows, 24 April Ref. Icahn Enterprises Wikipedia + What’s Next for Global Oil Prices?: The Industry May Shut Down , Bloomberg, 26 April 2020.
natural autonomy N/A 